Comments on: Paul Keating, Newspoll and economic policy http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/ Blogging politics, culture, sociology and life from Brisvegas Mon, 01 Dec 2008 23:27:25 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Frank Calabrese http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413533 Frank Calabrese Wed, 24 Oct 2007 11:45:28 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413533 Via Poll Bludger re Interest Rates Announcement. <blockquote>Shanahan prepares to slit wrists: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22458164-5013871,00.html</blockquote> Via Poll Bludger re Interest Rates Announcement.

Shanahan prepares to slit wrists:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22458164-5013871,00.html

]]> By: Dave from Albury http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413285 Dave from Albury Tue, 23 Oct 2007 21:08:22 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413285 boredinHK: I think that what you have described is very much the 'It's Time' phenomenon, people want change even if they aren't completely sure why. anthony: I blogged about this phenomena yesterday, with a snapshot of the figures. Howard's numbers have already dropped significantly in this area. Firstly the punters moved into the undecided column and then they started leaking to Rudd. Have a look for the full newspoll figures to see how badly Howard has dropped in this measure since last year. boredinHK: I think that what you have described is very much the ‘It’s Time’ phenomenon, people want change even if they aren’t completely sure why.

anthony: I blogged about this phenomena yesterday, with a snapshot of the figures.

Howard’s numbers have already dropped significantly in this area. Firstly the punters moved into the undecided column and then they started leaking to Rudd. Have a look for the full newspoll figures to see how badly Howard has dropped in this measure since last year.

]]> By: silkworm http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413251 silkworm Tue, 23 Oct 2007 14:07:36 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413251 If Newspoll is showing 58-42, then the Morgan poll will probably show 62-38. If Newspoll is showing 58-42, then the Morgan poll will probably show 62-38.

]]> By: anthony http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413247 anthony Tue, 23 Oct 2007 13:51:49 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413247 Thanks Dave, nicely explained. And on the flip side, as support drops for Howard there'll be less people needing to justify liking him for the economy and security. Thanks Dave, nicely explained.
And on the flip side, as support drops for Howard there’ll be less people needing to justify liking him for the economy and security.

]]> By: boredinHK http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413203 boredinHK Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:26:53 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413203 Thinking over these comments it might be that we are witnessing choices about politicians made with belief more than experience, with hope more than fear. All quite positive stuff and probably not something that will be influenced by any form of concern about economic performance. Or negative and attack ad campaigns ,rather they might exaggerate the change occurring. Thinking over these comments it might be that we are witnessing choices about politicians made with belief more than experience, with hope more than fear.
All quite positive stuff and probably not something that will be influenced by any form of concern about economic performance. Or negative and attack ad campaigns ,rather they might exaggerate the change occurring.

]]> By: Dave from Albury http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413179 Dave from Albury Tue, 23 Oct 2007 10:14:16 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413179 Sorry zorronsky, The Wodonga what? Definitely north of the river here. Sorry zorronsky, The Wodonga what? Definitely north of the river here.

]]> By: zorronsky http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413175 zorronsky Tue, 23 Oct 2007 09:51:41 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413175 Sheesus Dave are you sure you're not from The Wodonga! Sheesus Dave are you sure you’re not from The Wodonga!

]]> By: wbb http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413162 wbb Tue, 23 Oct 2007 09:30:06 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413162 Best economic manager! Such an empty boast. And a rubbery trope, too. I agree with Dave. The accepted wisdom on who's The Best Economic Mgr would lag any shift in people's preference for Prime Minister by some way. Best economic manager! Such an empty boast. And a rubbery trope, too.

I agree with Dave. The accepted wisdom on who’s The Best Economic Mgr would lag any shift in people’s preference for Prime Minister by some way.

]]> By: Dave from Albury http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413156 Dave from Albury Tue, 23 Oct 2007 09:11:05 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413156 anthony: There are no doubt plenty of voters who do believe that Labor will be superior when it comes to the economy and security, however I firmly believe that the increase in Rudd's numbers in these areas are a result of the 'Rudd Wets' getting everything in order before casting their vote. I think that there's been a little bit of cognitive dissonance at play and that's being dealt with as the election draws near. I've never given much credence to the 'soft Labor' vote that so many commentators have crapped on about, I think that a lot of voters have decided to vote for Rudd and are now working to justify that. It's easy to tell a pollster that you're voting for Rudd, but believe that Howard is the superior economic manager when there's nothing on the line, but once the election is called and you know you are going to have to vote you want to be able to believe that you are acting in a rational manner. Therefore you change your inconsistent beliefs, eg. that Rudd is not the best economic manager, to match the beliefs that you hold most strongly, ie. that you want to vote Labor. It follows that Rudd's numbers in these areas should end up very close to his preferred Prime Minister numbers by election day. People rarely understand why they make a decision, most of the reasons that they come up with are thought of after they are beyond the point of being swayed anyway. I think that this is simply being played out in the polls at the moment. anthony: There are no doubt plenty of voters who do believe that Labor will be superior when it comes to the economy and security, however I firmly believe that the increase in Rudd’s numbers in these areas are a result of the ‘Rudd Wets’ getting everything in order before casting their vote. I think that there’s been a little bit of cognitive dissonance at play and that’s being dealt with as the election draws near.

I’ve never given much credence to the ’soft Labor’ vote that so many commentators have crapped on about, I think that a lot of voters have decided to vote for Rudd and are now working to justify that.

It’s easy to tell a pollster that you’re voting for Rudd, but believe that Howard is the superior economic manager when there’s nothing on the line, but once the election is called and you know you are going to have to vote you want to be able to believe that you are acting in a rational manner. Therefore you change your inconsistent beliefs, eg. that Rudd is not the best economic manager, to match the beliefs that you hold most strongly, ie. that you want to vote Labor. It follows that Rudd’s numbers in these areas should end up very close to his preferred Prime Minister numbers by election day.

People rarely understand why they make a decision, most of the reasons that they come up with are thought of after they are beyond the point of being swayed anyway. I think that this is simply being played out in the polls at the moment.

]]> By: Joker http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413151 Joker Tue, 23 Oct 2007 08:24:31 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413151 On second thoughts maybe Costello is more of a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rooster" rel="nofollow">capon</a> On second thoughts maybe Costello is more of a capon

]]> By: anthony http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413147 anthony Tue, 23 Oct 2007 08:00:10 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413147 Bit of question begging there Dave. Any reason why voters might not simply think that Labor will do a better job on the economy and security? Bit of question begging there Dave. Any reason why voters might not simply think that Labor will do a better job on the economy and security?

]]> By: Dave from Albury http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413144 Dave from Albury Tue, 23 Oct 2007 07:40:58 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413144 I think that the reduction in the Government's lead on economic management and national security is the result of people wanting to legitimise their vote for Rudd. People believe that they are rational and therefore would not vote in a Government that they do not believe could do the job. So, having decided to vote for Rudd, they now need to believe in his ability. I think that the reduction in the Government’s lead on economic management and national security is the result of people wanting to legitimise their vote for Rudd. People believe that they are rational and therefore would not vote in a Government that they do not believe could do the job. So, having decided to vote for Rudd, they now need to believe in his ability.

]]> By: jimmy http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413138 jimmy Tue, 23 Oct 2007 06:28:55 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413138 Why are Swan and Costello debating? This is an example of the bloody obsession with "The Economy". If we're going to have ministers in important portfolios debate each other, let's see Gillard take on Hockey, or better yet, Garrett v. Turnbull (or best of all, Bob Brown versus either of them). What's so special about the role of Treasurer all of a sudden? If it's so terminally essential to know who's going to be comfortably running "The Economy", then why do the Liberals steadfastly refuse to discuss who will be treasurer when/if Costello becomes Prime Minister? Why isn't Rudd making more of that? Labor should be putting maximum pressure on getting the Liberals to name the treasurer after the fabled "hand over" from Howard to Costello. Why are Swan and Costello debating? This is an example of the bloody obsession with “The Economy”.

If we’re going to have ministers in important portfolios debate each other, let’s see Gillard take on Hockey, or better yet, Garrett v. Turnbull (or best of all, Bob Brown versus either of them). What’s so special about the role of Treasurer all of a sudden?

If it’s so terminally essential to know who’s going to be comfortably running “The Economy”, then why do the Liberals steadfastly refuse to discuss who will be treasurer when/if Costello becomes Prime Minister? Why isn’t Rudd making more of that? Labor should be putting maximum pressure on getting the Liberals to name the treasurer after the fabled “hand over” from Howard to Costello.

]]> By: Joker http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413130 Joker Tue, 23 Oct 2007 05:15:56 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413130 "Never before heard Costello called “The Roosterâ€?." He'd be more like a cock than a rooster, wouldn't he? “Never before heard Costello called “The Roosterâ€?.”

He’d be more like a cock than a rooster, wouldn’t he?

]]> By: steve at the pub http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413118 steve at the pub Tue, 23 Oct 2007 03:58:45 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413118 Never before heard Costello called "The Rooster". Never before heard Costello called “The Rooster”.

]]> By: The Worst of Perth http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413113 The Worst of Perth Tue, 23 Oct 2007 03:39:09 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413113 "Have to agree with Worst on this one." I don't often hear those words. Thanks Honkers. “Have to agree with Worst on this one.”

I don’t often hear those words. Thanks Honkers.

]]> By: Amanda http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413086 Amanda Tue, 23 Oct 2007 01:03:24 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413086 With the worm! http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/23/2067041.htm With the worm!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/23/2067041.htm

]]> By: Amanda http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413085 Amanda Tue, 23 Oct 2007 01:02:47 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413085 Oh cool. The Smirker and the Rooster will be having their own debate next Tuesday. Oh cool. The Smirker and the Rooster will be having their own debate next Tuesday.

]]> By: Jobby http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413084 Jobby Tue, 23 Oct 2007 01:01:28 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413084 <blockquote>The porkbarrelling is having no effect because nobody believes that Howard will be around to deliver.</blockquote> ... and people are getting used to it anyway ... and there might even be a measure of belief that Rudd will probably deliver the barrels even if Howard won't be around ("the gummint is the gummint").

The porkbarrelling is having no effect because nobody believes that Howard will be around to deliver.

… and people are getting used to it anyway … and there might even be a measure of belief that Rudd will probably deliver the barrels even if Howard won’t be around (”the gummint is the gummint”).

]]> By: Andrew E http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413082 Andrew E Tue, 23 Oct 2007 00:32:05 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/23/paul-keating-newspoll-and-economic-policy/#comment-413082 The porkbarrelling is having no effect because nobody believes that Howard will be around to deliver. The porkbarrelling is having no effect because nobody believes that Howard will be around to deliver.

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