No, not the Senate, the US presidential election.
While Steve Colbert’s presidential run is probably the most entertaining thing that’s happened in those primaries since no-chance Democrat Mike Gravel’s avant-garde advertisement, the marginally more serious candidates are touring their way around the thrilling vistas of Iowa and New Hampshire in an effort to win the first primaries.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is regarded as the clear front-runner, with Barack Obama and John Edwards (in that order) the two other candidates given a serious chance at this stage; there isn’t any sign that Al Gore is going to enter the race. Clinton is ahead in all the polls, has a metric tonne of campaign money to play with and thus isn’t particularly dependent on winning the early states, and by all reports has run a remarkably well-organized primary campaign. And yet…she’s not exactly loved by the Democratic-aligned blogosphere over in the USA. Raising WEG lists a number of points: her fairly craven centrist pandering, her policy misjudgements including Iraq and Hillarycare, her penchant for secrecy and paranoia. And then there’s the fear of awakening the sleeping Republican base:
Finally, although I’m not 100% committed to this argument (because it seems too bean-counter calculating and therefore likely to be wrong), I think nominating Senator Clinton would be the biggest gift the Democratic party gave the Republicans since I don’t even know when.
Right now, the Republican party shows every sign of nominating someone — whomever it might be — who has little-to-no ability to excite the core constituencies of the Republican party. Meanwhile, I think it’s fair to say that the Democrats will keep their primary voting blocs — and be able to count on their strong support next November — no matter who gets nominated.
As noted, in Republican-land things are indeed considerably less clear-cut, and not looking so rosy. According to RealClearPolitics’s poll averages, on a nationwide basis Rudy Guiliani is the leading candidate, but by nowhere near as clear a margin as Hillary. But if you look at the primary polling in the early states, it’s much more confused, with Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading, or close to it, in some of the early states. Then you’ve got Fred Thompson, best known to Australians as the cranky old chief DA from Law and Order, and John McCain, whose campaign’s financial woes became the butt of jokes. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee trails by a long way in the polls, but shouldn’t be ruled out, as I’ll discuss below.
But they’ve all got problems. Guiliani’s pro-choice views (and rather complex personal life) go down like a lead balloon with the Christian right, which has led to some fantasizing by left-wing news magazine Salon about a third-party run from a hard-core pro-lifer. Of course, such a run would virtually ensure a Democrat win. The odds of it actually happening are slim, however, a Guiliani run may mean members of the religious right may be even less motivated to go vote. McCain - who, to give him credit, is the only Republican candidate prepared to take a sane policy on climate change to primary voters - is struggling, and aside from anything else will be 72 by Inauguration Day. Romney is, well, a Mormon, which rules him out as a Christian to certain sections of the Republican base. Fred Thompson has incurable cancer - though it may well be many years before it causes him serious health problems. For these reasons, it’s possible Huckabee, a pro-life Baptist conservative from Arkansas in his early 50s, might just have a chance.
In any case, the show really gets started in early January with the early primaries and the Iowa caucuses. It’ll be fascinating to see how it pans out.
Ahh the other election, the one that may have more effect on oz than our own. I think that you are right about Huckabee being the gop dark horse, but i think that only Edwards can challenge Hillary now, Obama is being a little too sly and old school for his bright and shiny image to continue
[link]
as well as hanging out with the “gays have to be cured” crowd, Obama committeed to maintaining an orthodox foreign policy in his Foreign Affairs essay in july/aug. nothing particularly unusual in the essay, but i reckon that his fan base want something different.
you do have to be a little concerned re the lack of support that Hillary gets from the dems, i’ve read some nasty stuff directed at her on huffpost in the last few months, but if it does turn out to be a new yorker v new yorker slugfest the rapture crowd will stay at home or run a third party with possibly a black floridian or ohioan as veep candidate.
What about Richardson? I have a friend from DC who reckons, if Clinton or Obama start facing some seriously critical press, he might slip into contention. And, more likely, her reckons he’s in with a good chance for VP.
Obviously the best candidate on climate by a long shot.
What’s the last day that Al Gore can step in?
Richardson seems to be the fourth-ranked Democratic candidate, but he’s a long way behind the three others at this point.
Maybe a VP option - Clinton and Obama reportedly don’t get on very well.
I have the Ron Paul disease,caught it off all the American conspiracy sites I go to.Although he isnt my idea of a progressive,I hope some Democrats find some way of insisting on Republicans stop dumping on him, even if they cannot agree with this honest man on some issues. Ron Paul s record has no blemishes, but cetainly doesnt seem over eager on issues not exactly within his conservative acceptance, like abortion etc.This is the disturbing thing for me about the United States today, the conservatives have to be knocked down to size,by others of their ilk,and the Democratic to Left have either the problem of dealing with excesses of money or unable apparently to gain any recognisable traction.Nader was always someone I also admire. There are still some good people in the Democrats ,but, wether they are really consistent about matters is something too costly for me to investigate.I think Australians have to ignore U.S.A. politics so that the honest forces are not being outpolled by shallow approvals from Australians.
Chris Dodd is apparently making some gains.
DCG
Al Gore can step in any time up until the last day of the Democratic convention.
I’m still disappointed Alice Cooper didn’t get in.
At least he had a good campaign song.
I guess all the mainstream Republican candidates have already been raptured.
dylwah: but if he wants to win delegates in his own right he’d have to file for the Democratic primaries. Apparently, the official filing deadlines are still a couple of weeks away, but the chances of him being able to organize something from scratch in the time remaining are minimal.
Otherwise, the only way he could get into the race would be if there’s a brokered convention - think the end of season 6 on The West Wing.
True Robert, his only route in now is through a hung convention like in the WW. The flippant observers i know in Los Angeles were all watching his waist and it did appear for a while that he was losing weight, but the pics i’ve seen of him lately are not flattering, tho he is still on a diet and exercising more so the “draft Al” crowd have not given up hope.
[link]
Need honesty? principles? Mo Davis— the MAN>
Ah, yes, Ron Paul. While libertarianism has some terribly noisy supporters, they aren’t actually all that numerous.
This Mo Davis? Bugger that.
That is what is technically known as a “backpedal”. I’d prefer Mori as president, but the minimum age is 35.
As for the declared candidates - the only one who I like is John Edwards. I know it’s a bit early in primary season, but I’m surprised how unimpressed I am with all the Democrats. When you have the prez with sub-Nixon popularity, I have to ask “Is that the best that they can do?”