Kim Beazley gives his answer to the question “Will WA poll count?”
If you see on the night that Labor’s share of the so-called two-party preferred vote is about 52 per cent, you will know it’s really on; much less than that and the Government will be returned.
If it’s up anywhere near where the ALP has polled in the opinion polls this year, there won’t be huge numbers of Liberals left.
But about 52 per cent, then what happens is Stirling, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and maybe Kalgoorlie will determine the outcome.
Apart from looking at the moving aggregate of the vote on the night, here’s a few tips for WA poll-watchers seeking a cure for WA relevance deprivation.
Look to the result in Dobell in New South Wales. It is the 16th seat on the list most likely to fall if the Government is to change.
If the ALP is ahead, change may be on.
It requires a 4.8 per cent shift to fall. The sitting member doesn’t have much of a personal following, so it is likely to reflect nationally applicable political preference.
Then take a look at Bowman in Queensland.
It requires 8.9 per cent. Such swings are not unusual in states such as WA and Queensland when movement is substantial. I picked up 9 per cent when I first won Swan.
If Labor is winning Bowman, then expect another dose of relevance deprivation.
If Labor is just behind, prepare for all eyes in the east to focus on us.
I think the difference between now and 2004 besides Latham is the fact we’ll be on Daylight Saving.
I wonder if those people listening to Newsradio/watching the ABC will be influenced by what’s happening in the East and vote accordingly ?
I can still remember Anthony Green telling us Hewson was rooted (Well he didn’t say it like that, but that’s what he meant) as the election coverage had just started here in the west. That’s the kind of relevance deprivation I want this time too, with a sick looking Downer telling us it is too soon to tell for 6 hours.
In the three hours between the close of polls in the eastern states and WA I think we’ll be well and truly on our way to a result.
There are only two outcomes I can see for this election, either a landslide of epic proportions, or a repeat of ‘98 with all the big swings in all the wrong places. I don’t think that we’ll be holding our breath waiting to see what’s happening out west.
I am, however, curious to know what sort of effect the early results have on WA voters. If we see a landslide on its way will WA voters be more likely to vote ALP in the hope of receiving largesse?
[In the three hours between the close of polls in the eastern states and WA I think we’ll be well and truly on our way to a result. ]
Actually it’s 2 hours because we will be in the2nd year of a 3 Year Daylight Savings Trial.
[Actually it’s 2 hours because we will be in the2nd year of a 3 Year Daylight Savings Trial.]
My apologies, I thought you mob were still worried about the curtains
Don,t worry Dave daylight saving is responsible for all the evil in the world,according to callers to talkback and it fades the curtains,wonder if Rudd wins it will get the blame for that as well,I will be interested to listen to Breakfast on 6pr after the election if Rudd wins, it will be quite a show.
Much weeping and gnashing of teeth,sackcloth and ashes by one of the Breakfast pair,Simon on Morning will agree with everyone as he always does,BOB may or may not be happy,and Sattler who knows.
The best thing will be watching Howard and Co that I am looking forward to
With any luck, WA won’t need to be relevant, but can have fun anyway.
But re. daylight saving and the old “fades the curtains” chestnut:
DST only fades the curtains more than non-DST if you get up before dawn and go to bed before sunset in summer. What percentage of the population is that, again?
My curtains didn’t fade last year because I didn’t alter my clocks. I won’t be fiddling with the clocks this year either!
I think the ALP has unfortunately chosen a few less than stellar candidates in those crucial seats - in Kalgoorlie we have an ALP political staffer, and in Hasluck a person much criticised in the local press as being the recipient of an overpaid jobs-for-the-boys favour by the state ALP government. The ALP Senate team is pretty awful - btw I can’t find Louise Pratt listed as a candidate on the ALP’s website list of candidates, but I think she’s has the number 1 position on the ALP Senate ticket.
Talking of ‘The West’ .. is this song a presage for John Winston Howard:
I bloody hope so .. rack off you old hobbit!
Aidan - I am worried. Do you know something about Ratty’s feet that the rest of us don’t?
Howard reminds me not so much of a hobbit as of a boggie out of Harvard Lampoon’s Bored of the Rings (v. highly recommended for those suffering silliness deficiency).
And, to Fran Walsh and Howard Shore (who wrote the song for the LOTR movie cycle), Annie Lennox who sang it (dodgy link here ), or whoever thinks it applies to themselves and a boggie: remember to wash your arms carefully, afterwards. And count them, carefully.
Much as I loe the Beazer, he’s writing for a parochial audience and thus has made WA far more important than it is.
The election won’t com down to WA - if the 8 or 9 percent swing is on, WA will be irrelevant, and if the national 2pp vote is Labor 52-48, the WA seats will not change hands. WA’s Labor vote is too depressed compared to the national average.
The only way the marginals in WA can change hands is with a 55-45 national 2pp vote to Labor.
What if the LDP wins Stirling?!?
You’ll get your deposit back.
I’d view it as proof positive that tinfoil hats are ineffective.
Have you decided who you will preference, yobbo?
Any campaign stunts planned?