Still, if you’re going to go to all the trouble of setting up straw men, far be it from me to deny you the satisfaction of knocking them down.

I don’t know Andrew E. Why do you think people are so obsessed with The Economy? It’s all because Ratty and his Economic Rationalist creeps go around spouting facts and figures and hoarding all the budget surpluses. It’s their legacy and it’s going to be around for a long time yet, considering that the current wisdom is that the best perceived manager of The Economy will be the party to win the next election. The Labor can’t get away from it to witness Kevin Rudd’s hand-on-heart declarations that he is a die-hard, badge-wearing fiscal conservative.

The average punter just thinks The Economy is so complicated these days that they need experts in charge of it. The trouble is, Ratty and Co. are very good at looking as if they know how to manage The Economy and telling everyone they preside over a first rate country with a first-rate growth rate, when actually Australia’s performance has been pretty bloody average…

Turnbull has the best claim to not drinking the Howard kool-aid because of his experience over the Republic, because he’s independently wealthy and because he’s had the least time in Parliament: four years ago he was a private citizen. The rest of them: you’re right, Ambigulous, it will be disgracefully gutless and contribute to the effect described above.

Again with the historic examples:

- in 1949, nobody predicted that Labor would be out of office for two decades and that the next Labor PM wasn’t even in Parliament then.

- in 1972, everybody thought the Libs were gone for a generation, next Lib PM not even etc.

ALP after the 1975/1977 double banger

Rebuilding of Liberal Party by R.G. Menzies for 1949
Preparation of ALP for gov’mint by E.G. Whitlam, 1968-1972.

The Liberals’ll be back; it may take 6 years, perhaps only 3? But fighting over the spolis of defeat, that’ll be a dogfight to behold. One of the choicest features will be when (former) MP’s tell the world what they REALLY thought of John Winston Howard. By my estimate, that will begin on Sunday 25th November, only 26 days from now. Can’t wait! Will it rival “The Latham Diaries” for sheer venom?

I’ve been trying to argue since April that it’s pretty fruitless searching the tealeaves of campaigns past for signs as to what’s going to happen this time round. The dynamic is different. And the dynamic is very much that of an old tired, cranky government that’s run out of ideas and even viable political strategies.

At this stage of the game, you’d have to expect them to get even worse and fall apart even more markedly over the next little while

If you must, and I can’t help myself, it looks a lot like 1983. The Libs are even going on with “we’re not waiting for the world”. The irony is that there’s only one person at the top of Australian politics who was also there in 1983, and he’s the worst of the lot.

if Howard hasn’t already driven the small-L Liberal species to extinction which last time I looked he certainly had. I thought he’d spent most of his incumbency in the Liberal Party exterminating them.

I was a member of the Liberal Party from 1986 to 2000, I saw this first-hand. Brave friends lay armed, etc. I don’t think you can be a small-l liberal and be a member of the Liberal Party any more than you can be a Communist and deny Stalin, Mao etc., but people do it - people other than me.

Eg what happened to Ian McPhee?

This is a man for whom the reforms of the Hawke government were too much. He’s had plenty of time to come up with solutions and he’s done bugger-all. Place not thy faith in princes, I say.

And he also sidelined Amanda Vanstone for most of her time in parliament - now she’s gone.

Yeah, you can talk about Robert Hill and Philip Ruddock, too. You pay a high price for selling out, but there are rewards.

No the Dries are a the very hardiest and toughest of that pest species of Liberal.

I’ve seen the whites of their eyes and have argued them to apoplexy and whimpering. They can dish it out but they can’t cop it. Still, if you’re going to go to all the trouble of setting up straw men, far be it from me to deny you the satisfaction of knocking them down.

PM was old, tired, cranky, just about spluttering on “7.30 Report” last night. But where is the campaigning support from the likes of Abbott, Downer, $weetie?

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/30/newspoll-yawn/

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22670483-601,00.html

Watch how this changes the media narrative for the week (Galaxy and AC Nielsen polls non-withstanding). Really though, with Labor strong as ever on 48, there’s no problem.

Funnily enough the sign wasn’t of John Howard at all but of Arch Bevis, who is not as young and hirsute as he used to be.

Out of the mouths of babes, as they say.

Nobody knows why.

Margin of error last time. Margin of error this time.

Stop press. The comeback is on. Newspoll swings to Howard by 4% according to Lateline tonight. Nobody knows why. Interest rate rise favours Howard? Tony Jones speculates. It aint over till its over.

Nah, just a correction of last newspoll.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22669891-601,00.html