Hat tip to The Poll Bludger for pointing to the aggregated (and disaggregated by state and age!) Newspoll data. [pdf] Here’s the Labor primary vote and 2PP (based on preference flows from 2004) by state across the two polls taken over the course of the campaign to date. Poor old Tasmania doesn’t get a look in.
NSW 52 59
VIC 45 54
QLD 52 56
SA 52 58
WA 43 49
Total 49 56
Apologies for no pretty table.
I tried to put each state’s swing through Antony Green’s seat calculator but for a number of them it doesn’t work for such large swings! Hah! The overall national figure gives you a result of 96 Labor seats to 52 Coalition (with 2 independents). Note that unlike Shanahan I present these figures with no commentary. Make of them what you will.
Update: Possum has done the numbers and comes up with the figure of 102 ALP seats on the basis of the state swings.
There’s a link in comments at Pollbludger which goes to Antony Green’s calculator predicting over 100+ seats to the ALP. Either way, 96 or 100+, it’s still bad for the Coalition. Dear old Bob Ellis has a wonderful little rant about Newspoll on the ABC’s Unleashed‘ site. It’s not very scientific, but still it’s a funny read.
Tweak the URL of Antony Green’s calculator (then reload) to go beyond a 10% swing.
The only thing strange about them figures is the Labor primary vote being so low (by comparison) in Victoria – SEVEN points lower than Queensland.
When Queensland swings against a government, it swings big. That’s what happened in 75, 83 and 96.
This may have something to do with Newspoll’s (relatively) high estimate of the Green vote in Victoria compared to Queensland. Newpoll is showing the Green vote holding up well in Victoria relative to 2004 whilst declining by almost half everywhere else. Unless someone can plausibly suggest some factor which would affect the Green vote in all other states yet not be at work in Victoria, and how and why the Victorian anomaly would arise, this seems to strengthen my view that there is something wrong with how Newspoll estimates the Green vote.
Kim: I think you meant the following(?) though I’m sure all other commenators have gone grabbed the original by now:
Two-party preferred
Co Lab
NSW 41 59
VIC 46 54
QLD 44 56
SA 42 58
WA 51 49
Total 44 56
Bring out your dead
Jon, I was listing the Labor primary and then the Labor 2PP.
Update: Possum has done the numbers and comes up with the figure of 102 ALP seats on the basis of the state swings.
Update: Today (Friday) Morgan has Labor ahead 57.5 to 42.5.
Bennelong Time Since I Rock and Rolled
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=8_zulGddP6o
Is this one of those threads you can contribute to without substantive comment but with a single link to youtube or a news.com.au story in brief? ‘Parrently so.
Arleeshar on the Bennelong Time clip:
It’s an excellent cliop. The message at the end is effective about the full value of the vote for the Greens. The “lefties” who hate the clip can go to hell.
No gods nor masters, silkworm. Heaven and hell? I’m surprised at you.
Anyway, as for office-dancing anthems, here’s mine for today.
No doubt you’ll be dancing, Liam, when Howard finally gets the chop.
You’re not kidding, silky.
Bye, Bye Blackbird
On the other hand, there’s always the the fear…
But oh it is heaven nowadays.
To election night euphoria. Begun now. Yee-ha
try this