For those that haven’t seen the news, ABC news is reporting that Jose Ramos-Horta is in surgery in the Australian military hospital in Dili after an armed attack on his house by renegade soldier Alfredo Reinado. Reinado was apparently killed in the gun battle.
No idea what to make of it, other than it’s obviously bad news and let’s hope the injuries to Ramos-Horta aren’t too serious.
UPDATE: Apparently, Ramos Horta’s condition is “stable”. There was also an attack on Xanana Gusmao’s home; Xanana is uninjured.
yikes.
Latest report I’ve heard suggests he is in a stable condition after being shot in the stomach, and will be transferred to Darwin for specialist treatment.
A debate about the East Timorese political crisis of 2006-2007, ranging from broadly pro-JRS/pro-Xanana to pro-Alkatiri can be found here.
NB: You’ll need to click on “Forum” in the sidebar and then click on the link to the Timer-Leste discussion.
My source, BTW, is CNN via our ABC.
Why does this sort of thing only happen to good leaders?
Ramos Horta & Xanana Gusmao, giants of Timor Leste’s modern history
Unconfirmed report i heard, also from local Aunty, was that Horta had been shot twice in the stomach and Gusmao has avoided, despite an attack, what looks like a coup attempt.
Very glad Alfredo Reinado is dead. Hope he doesn’t have half a dozen hot headed, dick-waving, socially inept, gun-toting successors.
Good luck to Horta – he’s always been my favourite ET leader. You couldn’t have a more stark battle between hot-headed irrationality and cool-headed reason than with these two protagonists.
Good riddance to Reinado – a pity our troops didn’t find him before this. Hopefully his gang is finished now.
Reinado’s men are now leaderless. They will melt away, or get arrested. There’ll be short term strife in Dili with Reinado’s supporters, including assorted crazies link the Movement for Unity and Justice. But my best assessment is the context of his death will severely limit martyrdom potential, and mid-term strife.
The ‘petitioners’ were already getting wedged away from him by high level negotiations – hence, probably this deranged attack. Horta and Gusmao were undermining his alliance with the petitioners, and isolating him from bases of support in the west.
I dont know who he thought he was, Reinado – but he’s just attacked the Ema Bo’ot – the big men, two rolled gold national heroes. This makes pushing his legacy are difficult political proposition for his hardcore supporters.
Especially, or so one would hope, considering that at least one of Ramos-Horta’s stomach wounds is actually an exit wound: Reinado or one of his boys shot him in the back.
Yes, its very bad, he lost 8 litres of blood. Sounds terrifying – it seems Reinado was in the house, terrorising Horta’s staff, asking where he was, while Horta was (it seems) shot outside by one of his offsiders. FDTL guards shot Reinado when he exited the house.
Xanana escaped an attack on his home in Balibar unharmed. Some very traditional Timorese believe he can shape-change, and cannot be shot. No kidding.
Lefty E would you agree that the Indonesian military are still pulling the strings with the current East Timorese militias and gangs, and are largely behind a lot of the post-independence unrest?
Also restless young men with no jobs and limited education are always fertile recruitment fields for factions wanting top ferment instability.
Yes, its very bad, he lost 8 litres of blood
>
Um… I don’t think that’s physically possible. How big is he?
Reinado’s men wont last long (about 20 of them) – the larger problem is the petitioners, 600 or so, but numbers dropping fast. There’s now some suggestion that Gastao Salsinha was involved in the attack, and survived – he’s the petitioners leader, and that’s bad news; though the group is politcally splitting already – no doubt will do so more now.
There are always rumours about that, Sorcerer, some are exaggerated. Though there are definite links between groups like Colimau 2000 with former East Timorese militia in the west.
Bottom line: there’s been plenty of domestic trouble makers to go around as is. TNI may well have long term destablisation plans, but its not clear they’ve even had to execute them at this point. In the early days 99-01, though, most conflict at the border was TNI in former militia guise.
Geez I hope Jose “The Diplomat” Ramos-Horta pulls through. He’s being flown to Darwin for I.C.
The beef Reinado had with the Timor L’este govt. goes way back. From memory he fought for years alongside Xanana against Kopassus and their militia goon squads and was denied land and compo along with other of his “freedom fighters” from the western part of Timor L’Este when the Indons were “asked to leave” after the UN vote.
The recent actions which cost Reinado and some of his gang their lives are indefensible, but there’s a lot of bad blood and a lot of history behind this tragedy.
“He(Reinado) is a part of the 600 or so soldiers who were sacked after a dispute over pay and conditions, amid claims of preferential treatment for soldiers from the eastern part of the country.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/armys-cause-without-a-rebel/2006/05/26/1148524886073.html
Give me a break lefty E! In an average healthy adult, the volume of blood is about 1/13th of body weight. With Ramos about 75 kg, and assuming the weight of blood to be about the same as water, i.e. 1 litre = 1 kg, then 75/13 = 5.76 litres.
The reports indicate there was some delay before medical help arrived. This means that Ramos was operating literally bone dry. Where did he get the time to manufacture the extra three litres? Talk about Voodoo…
I do hope Ramos lives through this. And make history.
The latest news isn’t flash. He may well die.
Im not a doctor (well, not that sort anyway) Sit Henry, but thats what one of the reports said. Im happy to accept the person was exaggerating there! But point is, he’s now critical and in an induced coma.
Incidentally – Reinado was not one of the petitioners, but a separate breakaway group of military police. He has since strategically aligned with them – and threatened to bring his group to Dili if their demands were not met. The Govt has, wisely, been dealing with them separately, since most of the petitioners aren’t up on serious charges from 2006, including murer, as Reinado and his group are.
The issues behind it are mainly east-west discrimination in the miliatary – but in fact, much of that is intergenerational tension when it boils down. Only 200 signed the east-west peition – the rest (some from east)are complaining about older generation of ex-falintil dominating FDTL.
Reinado and Salsinha themselves were already facing military discipline charges on other matters when they went AWOL.
As for Reinado, sorry EC, but Ive never heard he was ex-FALINTIL. He was a porter for TNI after being captured, and then made it on a refugee boat in 1990 to Australia. Went back after independence as far as I know. Not saying youre wrong, but ive never heard it.
What I can tell you is that he was a bus driver for an aid org when he was specifically recruited to FDTL, like others, because he was from the west.
I hope for his sake, his family, and the country’s, that Ramos-Horta pulls through. He’s a key bridge between warring factions of the political elite, and one of the few who can hold the country together,
He’s a great man; assaulted by political bandits, and fugitives from the law, now motivated by little more than self-interest.
It does not sound good, for Jose.
War and violence is always a big failure.
And might i just express no glee for anyones death in this sad struggle that our neighbours have become involved in.
“….Reinado had at least implicit support from Catholic Church leaders and the Australian and US governments, as well as some understandings with Xanana. Observers have noted that Reinado’s wife works at the US Embassy and that Reinado has undertaken extensive leadership training with the Australian armed forces. One Australian officer has said, despite the rebellion, that he regards Reinado as a future political leader…..”
There we go, found it: Reinado like a lot of Timorese was in the clandestine (civilian) resistance after escaping Java. Still an independence fighter, yes, but not FALINTIL, as Gusmao was.
There is quite a good piece on Reinado on wikipedia. Seems Horta thought Reinado could be negotiated with and called off the manhunt last year.
Are the reports saying he lost eight litres of blood before medical help arrived, or in total? He received multiple blood transfusions, so it’s entirely possible that he lost eight litres in total, including while he was receiving medical attention.
Yes Nana – partly that was because the new alliance government contained some key figures sympathetic to Reinado, and his hand was somewhat forced to maintain unity. Plus the ADF attack on Reinado last year was a bit of PR disaster.
What they were negotiating about was hard to fathom. He was on serious charges, and had to face them. But didnt want to, like most criminals. Seemed to boil down to that – dressed up with the fig leaf of a strategic allaince with the petitioners who at least had some negotiable grievances.
Would you mind providing a link to the quote you’ve cited about Reinado, Nana?
Good riddance to the egotistical nutcase. South East Asia’s armed forces are full of them and there is no loss if one of them cops a bullet in the brain to stop him from carrying out his anti-democratic fantasies.
The Age is now saying he’s “very critical” and on life support.
He was given 16 units of whole blood; a unit is 450 ml, just under a pint, so as lauredhel says up there, he very easily could have lost 8 litres of blood, and not all of it his own by a long way. That figure of 16 units is probably where the reporter got the ‘8 litre’ figure in the first place.
Let’s just get some sensible debate going here.
Alfredo Reinado was born in 1967. This means that he was eight (8) years of age when the Indonesian TNI invaded East Timor (1975, for those who do not know or remember.)
It is said that he was captured (as a child soldier or wot?) by the Indonesians in the aftermath of the invasion and blackbirded to work as a porter in Sulawesi and Kalimantan – a long way away from East Timor.
Reinado escaped to Australia in about 1990, (after 15 years and reaching adulthood in Indonesia) reaching WA and got work on Freo docks. He escaped on a boat with his dad and sister and a bunch of other “boat people”. His father and sister continue to live in Oz.
After the TL referendum he returned to East Timor, a country he has not lived in since he was 8! It is hard to see how he would have had time to be a rebel in the hills or be a comrade in arms of Xanana Gusmao seeing that he wasn’t there and that he would have been a kiddie.
OK. Reinado, upon return, joins the “navy” of the fledgling republic and becomes a patrol boat commander on a vessel donated by the Portuguese.
In 2004 Reinado gets the arse from patrol boats for insubordination, getting into fights and a sexual liaison with one of his girl navy cadets. Getting into a fight with the local coppers is the final straw.
This gets now very curious. Although clearly an unstable hothead, maybe because of his years in Australia, shortly after the fight, Reinado travels back to Australia at the invitation of the Australian Govt and put through a naval training course at the Australian Staff College in Bradleys Head Road, Balmoral (Sydney). But the guy’s got serious form! So what gives?
Given more opportunities than a recipient of a Readers Digest promo again he returns to East Timor AND is again involved in MORE strife – it is the usual shit: not being able to cop military dicipline, threatening people with guns, fighting, macho posturing, etc. He is finally removed from the navy altogether and put in charge of a military police unit of 33 coppers (hence the rank of “major”) in Dili. Like, why???? Is this sensible???? No wonder the joint has problems. Who makes these decisions???
Incredibly, for such an uncontrollable dickhead, Reinado is by now the recipient of military training not only from Australia but also from the Portuguese and even the Brazilians. Again, Why? What’s going on?
In any case, in May 2005 Reinado and 20 members of his MP platoon, along with some riot police, desert from their barracks and join some rebel soldiers in the hills, taking with them two trucks full of weapons and ammunition, mainly Australian Steyr rifles and rocket propelled granades.
Just a few days later he is EASILY caught by the very tough and professional Portuguese riot squad, doing duty in TL as part of a UN contingent and handed over to Australians, who lock him up in Dili jail but all the while treat him with kid gloves and make soothing noises about him. Just a confused kid. He’ll get a fair trial. We’ll sort something out, etc etc.
In August, Reinado escapes from the Dili stir with 50 other prisoners. Niu Zillanders are in charge of the jail at the time.
In spite of appearing on Indonesian talk shows from his hideout and on Australian TV (brandishing a Steyr), he can’t be found by the cream of Australia’s armed forces 4 RAR Commandos and the Aussie SAS (“the best jungle soldiers in the world”) Not found that is until today.
Sir Henry thinks there’s something fishy about the late Major Reinado. Maybe he’s been dead a while now and thawed out for the occasion. I mean, how would we know?
Everyone:
Terrible news.
Lauradhel [25]:
Hard to tell what actual blood loss was from news reports alone.
“Induced coma” is normal for someone on a respirator with a tube down their throat after surgery – of much more concern is the nature of the injuries themselves.
I tend to agree, GregM. But a psychopath though he may have been – he wasnt stupid. He knew some big players were happy to pay footsies with him while he was a useful tool for anti-FRETILIN forces, and destabilising the country.
Once they’d won, he became a liability. The sad truth is, no less than Fretilin, the anti-Fretilin parties ended up relying on some pretty unsavoury, undemocratic characters and actors throughout the crisis (eg Reinado, some of the gangs). The attack on Horta is a tragic form of blowback, in a way – particularly tragic, as he wasnt one of the key players “using” Reinado in that way.
The latest update from the Age is slightly more optimistic about Ramos-Horta.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/ramos-horta-in-critical-condition/2008/02/11/1202578640733.html
Excellent bio, Sir Henry. One addition – I gather he found his way back to Timor in the late 80s for a while.
Here’s a clue: as I said above, he was specifically recruited *because* he was from the west, and they needed more western officers. Way back , 2002-3, this is.
Seems to me someone put that issue in their back pocket for later.
Now, I dont subscribe to conspiracy style theories, but the ADF pussyfooting around him back in 06 when he was holed up in Maubisse, drinking VB and paying cricket with ‘our boys’ was f’n nauseating.
Maybe there’s no political singificance to it – maybe Reinado (english speaking, familar with Au culture, anti-Fretilin) just seemed like a man for the moment, a strategic ally, onside with the right people who looked like winning.
Either way, I said in more once at the time that fielding at cover while Reinado was batting with him was a risky business. Now, I wouldnt claim vindication under my real name, but f*ck it, as LE, let me say this: plenty of Au commentators were plain friggin apologists for him (until it became unpatriotic after the failed ADF attack).
And now look what he’s done. If JRH dies, there could easily be a lot of suffering and instability all over again.
There is some corroboration that Reinado was killed during the assassination attempt.
“A Reuters reporter saw the bodies of the two dead attackers and identified one of them as Reinado.”
Oh, and of course I forgot this relatively important bio note: Reinado was a Mestizo, with a Portuguese father, like Ramos-Horta.
I gather he was a landowner in Same, probably fled with the rest of the Portuguese in ‘75.
Here we go – seems some some useless UNPOL got there first, but stopped 300 metres away. More worried about their own butts. No surprises there.
Nothing useful happened until the GNR (Portuguese Republican Guard) turned up and gave assistance. Meanwhile JRH was bleeding.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/11/2159937.htm
A while since I worked in trauma ICU but my reading is; nasty but almost certainly survivable. Eight units is relatively moderate for multiple bullet wounds. The hospital statements suggest the chest wounds are the main ongoing issue. If so, they can’t be that awful or he wouldn’t have been flown. The pressure changes are a nightmare, even with chest tubes and a ventilator.
Frankly, he is lucky to have not been hit in a great vessel or the spine. For three high velocity bullet wounds to the chest and abdomen the injuries sound relatively mild. Excepting significant bad luck he should get away with this, unless there is something that hasn’t been reported.
Thanks for the expert opinion, Doc.
Gosh…
After reading all the mail around, some regarding Ramos Horta as a big leader, and some insinuating the continuous involvement of TNI in East Timor insecurity, i feel that some of these oppinions have to be recalculated.
First, Australia has played well in terms of supporting the Indonesian ocupation of ET back in 1975, for 24 years, before sudentlly changing sides and supporting an Independent ET. Australia didn’t even had in mind an independent ET, only wanted the Special Authonomy, as was also the desire of Xanana (2002).
Second, Ramos Horta is the single most opportunist man in the World. During all the time between 75-99, he used the suffering of normal East Timorese on his own purpose, accumulating large sums of donation money to his personal use, and to bribe Western NGO’s to fight for his nomination as Nobel Peace Laureate. Come on, we all know that his nomination was more political than right, that there are many others that deserve the honour but never got it. But give it to anopportunist and a pedeophilic Bishop (Bishop Bello is known in ET as one), is the most disgusting ofense to the Nobel Prize.
Third, TNI is not involved in the ET insurgencies. Mismanagement of wealth, sea border disputes with Australia that deplorates the ET oil reserves, bad governance and a culture of subjectiion to Westerners has brought ET to this point. No wonder, with more than 70% unemployment, you still want to put the blame on Indonesia?? Just ask a normal East Timorese, is he willing to go back to his farm and plant rice, or he prefers staying in the city?
So, think again before writing, learn the history of East Timor, how ungratefull is its people, and then you may have a slight idea on how things are really happening in ET.
I’m sorry for Ramos Horta for beng shot, for Xanana for returning to his old habit of running from bullets, and I feel pitty of Alkatiri, the winner of ET elections in 2007 but was forced by the Australian Government to hand over to Xanana and Ramos Horta.
Alfa Dua,
Thanks for giving us your opinion
Alfa Dua [39]:
There’s nothing wrong at all with Xanana Gusmao running from bullets – this is real life, not a Hollywood movie.
Some good might come out of this tragedy. It might yet force unity of purpose on the people of Timor Leste …. after all, bickering and squabbling when the Portugese colonial empire was falling apart was a factor in encouraging the Indonesian invasion.
Yeah they are really ungrateful for the illegal 1975 Indonesian invasion, the 1991 Santa Cruz massacre and the 1000 killed after the 1999 referendum by the puppet militias.
GregM you asked for the link to the quote on Reinado I posted. Here it is
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=4584
Achievements of a “failed state� by Tim Anderson
“and I feel pitty of Alkatiri, the winner of ET elections in 2007 but was forced by the Australian Government to hand over to Xanana and Ramos Horta.”
Alkatiri’s won only 29% of votes. And while Gusmao’s party only won 24%, a number of other parties decided to form a coalition with Gusmao, and in a democratic system they are free to choose who they partner with, and they chose to go with Gusmao and there is not a shred of evidence of Australia “forcing” this. Alkatiri lost his majority, which must be a new definition of winning an election that i wasn’t previously aware of.
Secondly, you claim that Xanana only wanted Special Autonomy and not independence. This is false. He unambigously called for independence in just about every speech and it was in the political of his CRNT (the old, pre-independence CRNT). It is true at some stages when it looked like autonomy was the only option he might accept it, but as soon as independence was put on the table he leaped at it.
Your unsubstianted accusations of paedophilia and corruption obviously don’t warrant a response.
And last, you say that there is not evidence of TNI involvement in the East Timor troubles, and here I happen to agree with you entirely. What’s occuring now is the tragic instability, factionalism, corruption and voilence common to post-independence third world countries. Much worse occured in Indonesia after it gained independence in 1949.
Also, if you were trying to suggest that the recent voilence shows East Timor should not have been given independence then you are ridiculous. I think about 40 East Timorese people have been killed in political voilence during the past two years of instability. Hardly compares to the number killed under Indonesia occupation.
Alfa Dua are you one of the ungrateful East Timorese people that you refer to?
I have never heard stories of Ramos Horta pocketing cash for himself. He went to the UN (in 1976 was it?) and pressed the case for ET for many years. I met an Aussie who (as a poor student/volunteer) worked with Ramos Horta there in New York in those early years when the East Timorese despaired and most of the world ignored their plight. I don’t think the Aussie lied to me about those times.
I don’t believe that the Nobel Prize processes are open to corruption. Do you have evidence for your claims, Alfa Dua?
As for ‘70% unemployment’, well, 70% are subsistence farmers, so its a bit of a meaningless stat in the Timorese context.
The problem is more rural/urban migration to Dili in the UN boom time, which became a bubble, beyond Dili’s economic carrying capacity. Youth unemployment in Dili is the real sorepont – among “post-traditional” and dislocated communities, who are only one generation from a rural aldeia.
More efficient, and higher status to farming as an occupation is a national priority.
I don’t think ‘Western NGO’s’ is exactly a bribe culture, either.
I’m also wondering whether Alfa Dua would prefer a leader who was too dumb to run away from bullets.
Alfa Dua, you sound like an upset Indonesian spewing out skewered propaganda.
I hope people don’t really believe your version.
Lolita
Alfa “Gosh” Dua, are you currently a “member” of, or have you ever received a “beneficial interest ” from the Indonesia Lobby?
“In 1998, when Lance Collins wrote an intelligence estimate warning of the likely violence Indonesia’s armed forces would unleash when East Timor voted on independence, he also openly criticised a pro-Indonesian bias in the Defence intelligence community, maintained by a group of senior officials dubbed “the Indonesia lobby”.”
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2004/s1087351.htm
Here’s a few snaps of JRH that provide awindow or two into his soul.
http://www.abc.net.au/aplacetothink/html/diplomat.htm
We’re with you Jose.
Thanks for the link, Nana. Tim Anderson is a tosser. Read his article (follow the link you provided) on how Cuba is a democracy and the United States is not. Comic gold.
EC [50]:
Thanks for that link about Lance Collins.
Alfa Dua:
Silahkan menjawab.
Any friends of Jose Ramos-Horta lurking here:
Hope he makes a speedy and full recovery.
The following suggests that Reinado was also a victim.
“Radio Timor Leste is reporting that Alfredo Reinado was indeed killed in the shootout but rather than being an attacker he was in fact a guest at JRH’s house and had been there for upto a week and ran out of the house during the attack to try and stop it and was killed in the crossfire.”
http://xananarepublic.blogspot.com/2008/02/update.html
i am an architecture student and i have made plans to go over there next week to establish a relationship bewteen my uni and the school of architecture there. i even managed to obtain some tools and machinery from my uni that are being donated to the school. it is very unfortunate situation for the whole process of development of the country. i am not interested in the politics although it is vital for progression. my plane ticket has been paid for but i just dont know if i should risk in going!
To Graham Bell
Xanana has been one person I really admired for a long time, back to the days he was known only for his name as he was struggling in the jungles of ET. After being caught in early 90, and moved to Jakarta, he received even more previleges as a captured man in Jail than a fugitive in the Junggle. While in prison, he received inumerous visits from East Timorese clandestine groups, as well as a visit from then UN Secretary, Kofi Annan.
Has Xanana blods in his hands? Of course, as one of the high ranking officers from Fretilin, he murdered / ordered the murder of hundreds of Fretilin’s Political rivals from Apodeti and UDT back in December 1975- January 1976. Has any Australian visited , or at least acknowledged, the mass graves in Dili, Remexio, Aileu, Maubissi, Same, Suai, Ainaro, where the running Fretilin members executed hundred of people in cold blood? In 2004, Xanana excused himself saying that “We had to kill them all to avoid being detected by the Indonesian Troops�.. Is that a real excuse? Why isn’t mr Xaxana now in the International Court in De Hague? One of the survivors is Ramos Horta’s brother himself, Mr Arsenio Horta, that lives in Dili presently. I know many others, but they are presently buried in Santa Cruz Cemetery in Dili.
To sorcerer
East Timor has lived as a poor nation since it was discovered by the Europeans. Portugal ruled ET with an iron fist, and the only education people got was from the few schools ran by the Church, or colegios. Some of the best ET have come from those institutions, and some have come from the seminary. And what had the state provided after 450 years? 1 high school was present in 1975. ET only had 2 (two) college graduates (for coincidence, both were mestiços). Indonesia provided hundreds of Primary and Secondary schools, 50 High and vocational Schools, ET first University and Technical Shool. Infrastucture? 2000 km of roads. Health care? 1 hospital in every county, and clinics in every village. College opportunity? More than 4000 college graduates, most from universities in other provinces of Indonesia, mainly Udayana University (Bali), UGM University (Yogyakarta), UKI University (Jakarta), Hasanudin University (Makasar). These same Indonesian Educated students were soon against Indonesia. Question… Are there any Aborigines Australian College graduated against the western Occupation of Australasia? There are many unfairness in the world, we all have to live with that, but could we at least aknowledge the hand that feed us? Yeah they are really ungrateful for the illegal 1975 Indonesian invasion, the 1991 Santa Cruz massacre and the 1000 killed after the 1999 referendum by the puppet militias. Going back to the history, do you know exactly how many ET died during the 1975-76 Indonesian ‘Invasion’? It began with reporter Richard Woolcoot in 1976, where he misquoted “60.000 people have lost their lives or homes , including 30.000 refugees from East Timor that had fled to West Timor�. It then was quoted as “60.000 people dead�. Continous lobby from Fretilin’s Ramos Horta latter doubled and tripled the number, saying that the rough number must be around 200.000 Around? Did he said Around? Was he in the field to count all those who perished? This 200.000 number has since been used by the International world to punish Indonesia. Question: Actually, how many people died of starvation because they were under the barrel of Fretilin’s guns and couldn’t get out of the jungle? How many did died because of the war itself? Maybe one day an Australian NGO will finally take into account the latest ET population census 0f 1972, and compare it to the one of 1980 and beyond, and see that there was no decrease of population of such great dimentions (200.000). Hey, aren’t some of the ‘presumed dead’ still in Australia as Refugee? Please Australian Immigration, could you send them back to ET to rebuild their land? After all, there is no more acceptable cause for their refuge status…
Santa Cruz? Yes, it was the Indonesia’s worst mistake, and we can condemn Indonesia for that. But wait, who provided the funds and encouraged the young population to riot and demonstrate unlawfully in Dili? Lets look further South… Come on, even in Australia a group of people must submit a request to the police 3 days in advance before organizing any event, including numbers of participants, route, schedule, etc, etc??
1999 militias that burn cities? Please ask any Indonesia that left Dili in early September 1999. Independence was imminent, uncertainty was clear, and their status as Indonesians in an independent ET was unclear. What they did? Pack their bags, and get a lift to the other side of the island. “Hold on, before departure, mr militia, could you burn my house? I won’t be going back, and I don’t want it to fall into the hands of the Independent guys that have already targeted my house as theirs. Thank you…�
To Andrew
Like the Australian Government, ET has a parliamentary one. The Prime minister is from the parties that get the most votes. So, with 29% of the votes, Fretilin had to get the Prime Minister job. Eventhough there was to be a coalition, they would become the opposition. That is what Democracy is about.
But we can see that Democracy means other things in ET. Acoording to their knowledge of the law (written in Portuguese, endorsed by Australia in English, while some members of the parliament can’t even speak one of those languages), majority means coalition. Please refer to the ET constitution.
To Greg
Fortunately, I’ve lived in all eras, during the Portuguese, Indonesian and Fretilin/CNRT governments. I drank Portuguese Wine, Indonesian tea, and Timorese dolorok. Used the Timorese patacas, Portuguese Escudo, Indonesian Rupiahs, and the now American Dollar. I just feel sorry for the population, that is the victim of such inconsistent government. But hey, if there is corruption in ET, put the blame on the Indonesians, that taught us corruption. If we are rude, put the blame on the Portuguese that taught us rudeness, if there is no food in the table, put the blame on the Australians, that are robbing us from our oil in the Timor Gap.
Why Australia doesn’t want to recognize the real boundaries with ET, and keep using the ones negotiated with Indonesia in the 90’s? Because if they leave things as it is, Australia will suck dry all Timorese oil, just like taking the bread out of East Timorese mouths. When are you, Australian People, real care about East Timor? Is it only your buffer zone against Indonesia? Charities and organizations that once rallied outside the Indonesian Embassy in Canberra should now put their efforts in building ET, not robbing its only natural resource.
To Ambigulous
Proof of Ramos Horta corruption? Come on, its all over his face, that poor Aussie student was being exploited by Ramos Horta all time long. Horta used ET to his own purpose. All donations that he received, were them ever accounted for? For evidence, I believe mr Horta is more than capable of producing such evidence, backed by his Nobel credentials.
To Lolita
If I sound Indonesian, it is because I had the privilege, like thousand of other Timorese, to study in their system, where I got enough knowledge to stand in my feet. My parents, like hundred of thousands of other Timorese elders, never got that chance. I’m living now in a place where my leaders are fighting and avoid being killed, and their last preoccupation is the people like me. When is the West really going to help this little island? When are we going to stop crying for help???
Alfa dua, disini in Australia, we need more evidence of corruption by an orang, than what you think you can see in his face. We require facts, evidence, documents, bank records; that type of thing.
You have slandered a decent leader, a man who has given most of his life to the cause of his people; a man recognised internationally for his own fierce determination, independence of spirit, and intelligence. The Nobel Prize is not the main reason why many Aussies respect Jose Ramos Horta. We have watched him in action over many decades. Some of us hope that little Australia might produce some leaders of his stature.
Alfa Dua, you need to prove to me you are not a mouthpiece for anti-independence elements in Indonesia such as sections of the military, Kopassus or Islamic extremists, all of whom would be saying the same things as you do.
Blogreader, that rumour is complete rot. Not even people is his gang, who participated in the attack, claim he was staying there.
Reinado’s hardcore supporters are having a hell of a time making a usefuyl political martyr out of him – hence various exculpatory rumours (‘he was there to talk’, or the equally absurd ‘its somehow Fretilin’s fault’) and the big one (he’s not dead).
Lefty E – the TNI and others seem to think that stamping and stamping on things will keep Indonesia together… but force won’t work, it will just make the final collapse all the more devastating when it comes.
If Reinado was staying at Jose’s, why was he wearing four assault rifle ammo
pouches, combat boots, full camo, and binoculars? Just the thing for a relaxing weekend at a mate’s place. Check it out – Reuters published the photo of a a dead Reinado which has been picked up by most papers and TV.
Nothing about this story makes sense on the face of it. Now we get all kinds of ridiculous spin just to complicate matters.
The intimidation directed at Ramos Horta and Ali Alkatiri by Downer has not yet been revisited as it should be now that Dolly is gone. Does the deal stand?
As to the alleged friendship between JRH and Reinado, here is a snippet from News Ltd Newstext database, dateline 24 Nov 06:
“EAST Timor Prime Minister Jose Ramos Horta today urged international peacekeepers to arrest rebel military leader Major Alfredo Reinado who has made several public appearances since escaping from jail in August. Ramos Horta’s call came amid unconfirmed reports that Major Reinado, who is also a murder suspect, was due to speak today at a seminar in the southwestern district of Suai, near the Indonesian border.”
This raises a number of issues, not the least one of which is Reinado’s preferred territory near the border with Indonesia.
If Australia and its UN mates are in E Timor, what are they actually doing? I mean, are they fair dinkum? You’d think protecting the country’s leadership from being shot in their own homes would be one task they’d be on top of. What were they doing? Playing with their Browning 9mm pistols in the barracks? Two-up? Spot of poker?
ABC News: “Rebel group last week fired up to eight warning shots at Australian troops, who did not return fire.” How did they know they were warning shots?
After being shot at by Reinado’s men the Australian Army patrol “professionally withdrew”. Pardon? Here was a dangerous fugitive accused of serial murder (at least eight people), mutiny, treason, stealing firearms and motor vehicles, and he is allowed to go? Why?
Well, it may have something do with JRH wanting some of Reinado’s political base in the presidential elections. Did JRH spefically ask for Australian forces to run dead? From SBS’s Dateline report by John Martinkus, 9 May 2007:
“DR JOSE RAMOS HORTA Presidential candidate: My position is this – does he want to surrender to justice? If so, that’s fine. My only obligation as Prime Minister is to speak out, to tell ISF I don’t want any security operations, I don’t want any hostile military action. He has to be treated with dignity. He has to be provided with full protection so that he can appear in court. That’s my position. If he wants to do 1 video, 10 videos supporting someone else, that’s fine with me.
But only weeks before Jose Ramos Horta had co-signed a letter asking Australian Prime Minister John Howard to authorise SAS troops to capture the renegade. His backflip hasn’t gone unnoticed.”
SBS’s other intrepid and brilliant reporter, David O’Shea, filmed Reinado’s men opening fire on an army patrol and then boasting about it. O’Shea was ‘embedded’ with Reinado.
Here’s the rest of Martinkus’s report: “The violence that plagued East Timor throughout 2006 appears to have been part of the political realignment which has seen the downfall of the ruling Fretilin Party and the rise of political interests more sympathetic to Australia and America led now openly by President Gusmao and Jose Ramos Horta. On the (widely distributed, propaganda DVD a la Osama) Major Reinado makes an extraordinary claim that Horta, at the height of the crisis last year, offered him the presidency.
“MAJOR ALFREDO REINADO (Translation): I remember what you were like before you became Prime Minister. In Alieu, you turned up on my doorstep at 5am. You asked me to be the next president.
“He also says Jose Ramos Horta and President Gusmao had a plan to change the government of the country.
“MAJOR ALFREDO REINADO (Translation): Mr Ramos Horta rang me, he said ‘If you and Xanana want to govern, go ahead. I have a post in Geneva and also in New York with the United Nations.’ Lies… Now he is standing for election. He is doing all he can to be in power. A leader who changes his mind a hundred times in one day is not someone who can be trusted.”
I wonder if all this has to do with the TimorGap oil treaty “negotiated” by the redoubtable Mr Downer.
Something smells.
The man with the answers is currently in a “serious but stable” condition in a Darwin hospital, Sir H, hope he has alert people to watch over him.
“Like the Australian Government, ET has a parliamentary one. The Prime minister is from the parties that get the most votes. So, with 29% of the votes, Fretilin had to get the Prime Minister job.”
No.
What happened in Australia, in the past 4 elections before Labour won in 2007? Labour got more votes and seats than the Liberals, put the Liberals still formed government, legitimately, by achieving a parliamentary majority by virtue of their coalition with the Nationals.
That is how most parliamentary democracies work. Please point out where it says in the ET constituion that Prime Ministership simply goes to the party with the most votes. http://www.constitution.org/cons/east_timor/constitution-eng.htm
Actually, Andrew, you need to go to the Portuguese version (which is the official) and you’ll find the wee problemo there. What the English version says is legally neither here nor there, I’m afraid. s106 from memory.
Its says, translated “the party with the most votes, or the alliance with a majority in the parliament” gets to appoint the PM.
This is in case there is no workable majority – you still need a PM.
Now, of course, Fretilin was being overly literal: if there *IS* an alliance with a majority (and there is), then forget the first part, right?
Fact is, they havent mounted a constiutional challenge on the point, so I suspect they know how the Supreme court would read it.
Just to follow up: Fretilin could legitimately have expected first bite at forming at alliance from coming first in the election. Much less controversial point.
But back in reality, everyone knew they didnt have the numbers. So JRH talked for a while about a ‘unity’ government, but when Lasama beat Fretilin’s candidate for President of Parliament (like our Speaker), which demonstrated the numbers, he offered it to the Gusmao led AMP.
And fair enough, really. So there was an issue of sorts, but not much more than one of ‘niceties’. Time for Fretilin to get over it.
They sort of have, actually – been acting as an opposition for months. Just need to drop the rhetoric as well.
I’d say the whole Reinado affair just delivered them an unexpected chance to get out of the doghouse a bit earlier than expected – if they sack certain leaders, visibly renew, and really take the lead, with Gusmao and (hopefully) Horta to transform the political culture away from guns, renegades and clandestine cell work.
But I’m not holding my breath on anyone achieving that soon.
Andrew, thanks for the link to the Constitution of East Timor. What a shocker. It looks like it was work-shopped by a convention of NGOs, which it probably was. No wonder they’ve got problems with a travesty like that as their basic law.
Thats right Marta – its not exactly politically correct to say it out here, but Indonesia bears greater paralells with the former Soviet Union than Canberra likes to dwell on. Makes security and intel people wake in cold sweats.
I wont be all that surprised to see the eastern archipelago break away in 30-40 years.
Even saying the words “timor raya” (greater timor) will get you shot in Kupang.
Sir Henry – yes, JRH changed his tune on Reinado appreciably between the 1st and 2nd round of pres elections. Needed the numbers from PDs Lasama, who was eliminated, but held the crucial votes for round two.
“If Reinado was staying at Jose’s, why was he wearing four assault rifle ammo pouches, combat boots, full camo, and binoculars? Just the thing for a relaxing weekend at a mate’s place.”
….Yeah, and hanging with his ol’ buddies the Prez’s guards, from the loyalist FDTL. So many memories!
‘Didn’t you ambush me at Fatuahi that time?’
To Alfa Dua,
I really feel for you and the East Timorese people. I believe that you have suffered terribly and because of what you’ve all gone through,
However, I have seen Xanana Gusmao and Jose Ramos Horta, with anguish etched on their faces, courageously fighting with the best interests of their country at heart. I don’t know how they cope with their own personal traumas, and still have the energy to look for peaceful solutions in very complex situations. Politics is a dirty business and the fancy footwork they’ve had to learn to do is beyond my comprehension.
I just hope that the new Australian government shows more compassion and acts as a government we can be proud of in its dealings with East Timor.
I wish you all the best and I hope Jose Ramos Horta makes a quick full recovery, and is back to help his people
To Alfa Dua,
I really feel for you and the East Timorese people. I believe that you have suffered terribly and because of what you’ve all gone through,I certainly have no right to make judgements on what you think or how you feel.
However, I have seen Xanana Gusmao and Jose Ramos Horta, with anguish etched on their faces, courageously fighting with the best interests of their country at heart. I don’t know how they cope with their own personal traumas, and still have the energy to look for peaceful solutions in very complex situations. Politics is a dirty business and the fancy footwork they’ve had to learn to do is beyond my comprehension.
Although I believe previous Australian governments have acted shamefully, most Australians have felt very supportive of East Timorese, especially the young students and the people in Darwin.
I just hope that the new Australian government shows more compassion and acts as a government we can be proud of in its dealings with East Timor.
I wish you all the best and I hope Jose Ramos Horta makes a quick full recovery, and is back to help his people.
When the libs realised ET would become independant, they promptly withdrew from the international agreement of the sea, allowing the theft of ET’s oil resources, which would have seen ET receive income much greater than Aus donations. Hose RH travelled Australia seeking to gain the right to ET’s own resources which Australia had stolen. Perhaps the ensuing poverty has resulted in the present course of events. Shame Shame Shame.
A couple of press reports about events in Timor,
“…Few believe rebel leader was the real culprit.
…There is no one left to trust.
…Horta’s brother-in-law, Joao Carrascalao, claiming that both the President and Reinado were set up and attacked by, it would seem, sections of the army, or F-FDTL. The suggestion is that the Australian-led International Security Force, trying to track down two groups of Reinado’s men, are looking for the wrong people.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23221448-401,00.html
“Ramos Horta and Reinado had amnesty deal.
…..President smiles and shakes hands with rebel leader Alfredo Reinado on a secret deal that would see Reinado pardoned for murder and armed rebellion in an amnesty on May 20, the anniversary of East Timor gaining independence. The two men then sat down for a feast of goat, lamb and chicken, served with fine wines. They departed in high spirits.”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/deal-failed-to-save-ramos-horta/2008/02/15/1202760602680.html
First report is more nonsense, this time from the ex-UDT leader. I dont know why Toohey bothered with it: problem #1 – Salsinha has effectively copped to the abduction plan this morning, which means that bizarro rumour just went down the toilet about 10 mins after Toohey published it.
2nd one is consistent with rumours Id heard, and consistent with the Reinado loses his mind after petitioners make deal theory.
Lefty E. I don’t like to disagree with you as you seem to have knowlege of what really happened, but in the interests of balance I refer you to the following in the same News Ltd report linked to above, -towards the end.
“…Lieutenant Gastao Salsinha, who is accused of leading the prime ministerial ambush. He insisted several days ago that he had nothing to do with it.
..in April 2006,…it was Reinado and Salsinha who abandoned their roles in a protest against the violent actions of the army they were serving in.”
I read the whole piece this morning, blogreader. I cant even be bothered listing the problems with this theory.
eg Salsinha was spotted at the PMs place.
Suffice to say, it hardly matters though, since Salsinha has today basically admitted he and Reinado formed the plan themselves.
In other words, you can forget any “third hand” theory.
eg here http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23219455-2703,00.html
Lefty E. Thanks for the link, I read that earlier and it didn’t appear to by an admission by Salsinha,
He does say,
“My commander Alfredo Reinado went to Metiaut (where Ramos-Horta’s house is). He was killed first by the F-FDTL (East Timorese army), and about 25 minutes later the president got shot.â€?
This suggests that he was not present at the scene.
This bit,
“He described Monday’s attacks …. as part of a “very complicatedâ€? plan.” ”
gives me the impression that he is referring to someone else’s plan.
“He would not say whether the rebels wanted to kill the two leaders, or simply kidnap them.”
Again he may be saying he doesn’t know what the perpetrators had in mind.
“But he added: “If we wanted to kill him (Ramos-Horta) we would kill him directlyâ€?.
“I will not tell you what was the plan of this attack, but I will tell you when I go to court.â€? ”
He promises to tell all in court, recall the deal they did with Horta.
As far as we know that still stands.
He probably doesn’t know that he has been found guilty of shooting Horta/attempting to kidnap Gusmao by some.
“Salsinha said Reinado concocted the plan because he “saw that something was not going wellâ€?. He would not elaborate.”
I think he could be referring to Reinado’s decision to go to Horta’s residence.
One last point, if Salsinha is in a house in Dili why are we combing the hills around Dili looking for him?
Well, we’ll see blogreader. No one claims Salsinha was present at JRHs. He was spotted at XGs.
In relation to the rumour, Im more interested in his reported statement that: ‘Reinado concocted the plan because he “saw that something was not going wellâ€?’.
He’s not saying Monday’s action was at someone elses bidding or invitation, in other words, which would seem to address the core of the new rumour above.
Yes, I think the plan by Reinado was to kidnap JRH and not to kill him. On arrival he demanded to know where Jose’s bedroom was.
It is clear that JRH was leading Reinado on and had issued a request to the UN and Australians to run dead on pursuing him, despite the serious charges against him. This is a ridiculous proposition to maintain on behalf of a murderer and mutineer with an armed band unless he had some juice on Jose. See below.
What JRH thought he was doing dealing with this loony with illusions of grandeur is a mystery. Reiando probably had something on JRH and/or Gusmao. Reiando certainly intimated that Gusmao had made some serious deals with the Indons. If Reinado was being fed information by the Indons then Reinado would have posed a credible threat to JRH and/or Gusmao if there was something compromising against either orboth of them.
(Incidentally, I take back what I said about Reinado in an earlier post: that he would have hardly come to stay for a weekend wearing mag pouches. A photo in the papers today clearly show JRH and Reinado photo op during one of their friendly pow wows with the latter wearing the full get up, ammo bags on and all. Oh, well, just a Webley .455 tucked into my pyjama elastic is sufficient macho for me.)
I also read and was fascinated to learn that Marà Alkatiri and Reinado weren’t exactly buddies. Mari would be very much worth having a chat to by an enterprising hack.
Anyway we can now spec out an educated guess of a scenario:
1.Reinado has some Indonesian/TNI connections or is an out and out Badan Intelijen Negara (BIN) agent.
2. JRH knows this, and offers Reinado a deal which includes amnesty. But first he has to officially give himself up so the whole thing can be sewn up for world opinion.
3. Something happens – either Reinado is tipped off by his Indon case officer that there will be a double cross at Ramos Horta’s or the Indons are being mischievous and tell Reinado a porky. They suggest a kidnap and promise covert support. Either that, or Reinado is even madder than we thought.
4. This Reinado proceeds to do, arriving at the presidential hacienda with his entourage. Nobody seems too perturbed when they see the two truckloads of armed militia rumbling up the road and into the presidential compound. It’s not even under the cover of darkness.
5. But JRH is out walking. The Reinado mob disarm the palace guard and wait for Jose to come back, meantime lolling about the house, smoking Jose’s cigars.
6. But a new shift of the guard arrives and a firefight ensues in which Reinado is taken out.
7. The Reinadistas are pissed off, suspecting there’s been a double-cross but that is probably an error because if there was a real double cross intended Jose would have called in the Australians. It’s just a fu ck up.
8. Nevertheless, when Jose is told there’s been a shootout back at the ranch, he hurries back, perhaps wanting to save the situation, worried stuff might leak out. Again, he does not want to involve the Australians or the UN. He’ll sort it, he thinks.
9. Reinado’s men take revenge on JRH for the perceived betrayal.
The only troubling bit in the scenario here is as follows: if the relief palace guard has shot and killed Reinado, wouldn’t there be an ongoing firefight between them and the remaining Reinadistas? This is unlikely to have been resolved by the time JRH returns… heaps of cover, and they are all untrained rabble anyway so there would be lots of expanding ammunition to no good effect, spraying lead into the shrubbery for at least an hour or so. JRH would have been unlikely to have walked into that. This part does not make sense but I am willing to be put right here.
The other bit of incoming info that worries me is the shooting at the car of Gusmao 2 hours after the shootout at JRH’s. If the rebels shot at the car, Gusmao would have been hit. But he fled. But you can’t outrun Mr Steyr or Mr M4A1 Sopmod, both with telescopic sights (which is what the naughty Reinado boys stole) and also in posession of a LAW rocket-propelled launcher (see http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/launchers-are-hard-to-find-/2007/01/13/1168105227882.html ) So, where was Gusmao’s guard? Why didn’t they return fire? Subsequent reports say that the assailants were only aiming at the tyres of Gusmao’s car, hoping to kidnap him but not to kill him. This is very fishy indeed. Was this shootout a fake staging of an attempted assassination?
The whole thing sounds like a BIN job to me. And Canberra has a fair idea what is really going on.
Interesting, Sir Henry.
I like to keep it simple. Yes, It was clearly an abduction attempt (eg they fired at XGs wheels) gone wrong. Unless Reinado went with just two men (unlikely) to JRHs house, then the men across the road were bloody obviously his.
As for motive, the amnesty (which Id heard rumours of in Dili) clinches it for me. But to get the significnance of it, you also need to know that JRH hadnt yet talked XG etc into the deal.
ie Reinado thinks he has deal with JRH, but then finds XG negotiating with petitiotners to undermine his position and support. This starts working (100 petitioners split) and Reinado suddenly thinks he’s being diddled.
He’s a loose cannon who then mounts poorly planned operation; so poor he doesnt even expect changing of guard.
That explains it all to me – Im not sure we need any theories of external interferance etc.
PS Im not dismissing more complex theories, but just applying Occam’s razor until some supporting evidence comes to light. Merely noting we necesarily dont need a complex theory to feed the rumour mill in Dili.
Just one technical note re ” you can’t outrun Mr Steyr or Mr M4A1 Sopmod”.
You probably can in Balibar, where XG lives. Steep winding roads through jungle. If XG got a 20 metre start there’d be no target – he’s round the bend, 20 metres down, behind thick trees.
Of course, being ex-FALINTIL, XG and guard immediately pulled over and bang, they were gone into the jungle. Came up smiling an hour later at the back of Dili. No one would catch them.
Lefty E: another page in the mythology of XG.
This is an informative piece about recent events in Timor.
A few quotes,
” “To this day, I have remained a soldier, obedient and loyal to the commander-in-chief, President Xanana Gusmão”, said Reinado to journalists during the handover of weapons. This position was reiterated by Major Tara and Major Marcos Tilman who also left their posts to join the opposition in the Ermera district.
A coup d’etat to unseat him from power is now apparent, just as Alkatiri thought. The president has appeared before demonstrators. “Alkatiri is a terrorist and communist,” yelled protestors led by opposition representatives Major Tara, Major Marcos and Railos, who now are mobilizing the overthrow of Alkatiri and the dissolution of the parliament. As the highest commander, the person responsible for the country’s sacurity and the “guardian of the constitution”, President Xanana has openly said to the Timor-Leste people, particularly to the Fretilin militants, “choose me or Alkatiri.”
If today, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow PM Alkatiri is successfully forced to step down through undemocratic means, then the Portuguese government’s warning of a possible conspiracy involving Australia and internal Timor-Leste elements may prove true.”
The economic/business background.
“In line with Australian and American policy, the World Bank has been overseeing funds from donor countries for Timor-Leste reconstruction projects. Projects that began during this transition period have been very beneficial to the private sector. Several government efforts to improve public services, such as plans to establish a public transportation company, electrical utility and national oil enterprises, were thwarted by the World Bank which prefers these sectors run by private companies.
Even while refusing to submit to economic growth policies, Alkatiri’s impoverished government managed to provide free education to the people of Timor-Leste from primary to secondary levels complemented by nutrition improvement programs by providing free meals to students at school. Through bilateral cooperation with the Cuban government, Alkatiri brought in hundreds of Cuban doctors to remote parts in Timor-Leste to provide free health services. The government also sent hundreds of Timorese students to Cuba to study medicine and founded a medical school at the Timor-Leste National University.
The latest issue which angered the private sector to the breaking point of tolerance is the creation of the Petroleum Fund. This fund was created to manage the wealth from oil and gas in order to prevent the “oil curse” – war and acute poverty which often creates a petro-dollar crisis. Proceeds received is managed transparently using a Norwegian system where 90% of the funds are obligated to go into the Federal Reserve Bank in the United States of America for long-term needs, and 10% of the funds will be used for government projects and invested in the public sector. The private sector opposed this system. They want oil wealth to be distributed and used for developing the private sector. Does Timor-Leste President Xanana also oppose these policies?”
http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?page=article_impr&id_article=2692
I don’t think the World Bank has convinced anybody that everything should be privately owned.
People consider benefit as well as ownership and perhaps they feel that private ownership will not produce benefit for the people in the same way that public ownership will.
This debate is by no means settled in Australia either and is probably about to be reignited..
I generally agree with the idea of private ownership, but like all good ideas they can be taken too far and to places people don’t want to go.
Competing political philosophies, disputed ownership of resources, competing geopolitical interests, egos, legitimacy issues for Australian security personnel.
All this before considering internal political and cultural issues gives me some insight into why Horta did a deal with the rebels.
He would do what he could to heal the rift before seeking retribution.
This is may be hard for the more bipolar western mind to understand.
Gusmao, I believe, would also see sense in this approach if he was interested in making progress.
The last thing they need is clumsy and arrogant manipulation by outsiders, whoever they are.
It would be good if, just this one time, we could see all the cards on the table.
I wonder what became of Major Tara, Major Marcos and S. Railos.
Maybe the whole thing is a manifestation of the new reality,
“The aide said that guys like me were ‘in what we call the reality-based community,’ which he defined as people who ‘believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality’.”
“‘That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued.‘We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.â€?
http://www.the-diplomat.com/article.aspx?aeid=3935
That’s the hubris-laden quote from Ron Suskind’s 2004 NYT article when the neocons were at the height of their peremptory arrogance.
But Hartcher knew better and continues:
Now the con of the neocons has been exposed, they’ve scuttled back like doomed cockroaches behind the skirting boards to await their ultimate demise.
I think you are going to see a subtle but considerable difference in the attitude to and the way in which relationships are forged with our near neighbours under a Rudd Government.
Blogreader, is ESSF some sort of Dutch-based, French-speaking Trot outfit? Who is Pierre Rousset? Love the name! Anyway, not much to quibble with there, I suppose.
But let’s draw some inferences – if Reinado didn’t exist it would have been necessary to invent him… to set against Alkatiri, like getting a mongoose to take care of the cobra.
This way JRH sits back and stays clean. (I don’t know where XG comes in here – the guy is a total cypher, as far as I am concerned).
Alkatiri went toe to toe with Alex and won some concessions because the details of the rip-off started to leak out into the public opinion in Oz and it wasn’t looking pretty. I remember one particular encounter with Tony Jones where Alex retired hurt.
If Alkatiri wants to ensure the oil money doesn’t get trousered along the way but goes to fix the basket case economy, then where does Reinado come in with his opposition to Alkatiri? What’s his beef? We’ll never know now.
It all came apart I reckon when Reinado misunderstood his own walk-on role in the international play and started asking ‘where’s mine?’ JRH was told to stall him until Australia worked out with the Indons what to do with him.
But then some rogue elements within BIN or TNI encouraged Reinado in order to stick it up the Aussies – there are still many high-up TNI entreprenours pissed off at the loss of a good earner. As you would be, eh?
Anyhow, Reinado got popped, either by accident or design. Now what? Bet the phone lines between Jakarta and Canberra are running hot.
Meanwhile, the SAS has orders for the rest of the gang: terminate with extreme prejudice. We’ll see what transpires.
I think this is the year of living dangerously again.
Wonder what a “make” on the lawyer will reveal?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/dili-plot-female-lawyer-arrested/2008/02/18/1203190722420.html
Alfa Dua:
Terima kasih.
Everyone:
Poor TimorLeste – at a time when it needs all the leadership it can get …. Reinado is dead, Alkatiri is out, Ramos-Horta is badly wounded and Gusma’o is only just hanging on.
Sir Henry Casingbroke, I haven’t looked him up. But as you say, not much to quibble with.
Thanks for your musings, there is much that doesn’t add up.
The press sounds a bit more strident in its support for the rebel explanation today. (Speaking of the press and completely off topic, I think, how did that Rudd/Burke non-story get a life?)
From the lawyer report,
“Mr Monteiro said the woman would most likely be charged with conspiracy when she faces Dili District Court today or tomorrow.
“Not [for the] attack, but planning something, knowing something,” he said.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/dili-plot-female-lawyer-arrested/2008/02/18/1203190722420.html
Hopefully the charges will crystallize somewhat before they get to the judge.
To sum up then: Mairi Alkatiri scared the shit out of the Australians, the US, the Europeans, the World Bank, JRH, et al. to such an extent that they all played ball with the likes of Reinado. Xanana? Stuffed if I know. The guy remains an enigma. Maybe, like Baldrick, he has a cunning plan…
More on recent events in Timor Leste and Australia’s role in it.
‘Mayhem and mystery in Dili.’
http://www.leftwrites.net/2008/02/19/mayhem-and-mystery-in-dili/
Word on the ground is he ISF has no local support or intelligence. As a result, they’re not doing all that well in chasing the rebels. They invaded a house in Dili by night, startling a teenage girl. No rebels there.
Frankly, I cant see the SAS cutting it against locals.
The Indonesians drove 10,000 Timorese north to south across the whole island in the late 70s (the ‘fence of legs’), and still couldnt find most of FALINTIL. Forget it: ‘prestige’ blow imminent.
The best idea is for Timorese forces to track them down if they’ve gone into the mountains. They’ll find them.
Sir Henry CB, Blogreader and all:
Been too busy to watch much of what is happening in TimorLeste these days [thanks for the recent insights] but even to me, the aroma of ripe mullet and unchilled bream pervades news coming out of there. Wonder what is really going on?
Well, another day, and all sorts of new theories abound. One holds that Reinado was about to spill the beans on Gusmao’s involvement in the 2006 crisis. Another, put about by Alkatiri, that JRH was thinking about proposing new elections and a national unity, and anti-Fretilin forces among the western based parties did him in.
Me, I’m not convinced by any of them to date. And certainly not Toohey’s line of thinking in the GG. There’s a lot of talk about JRH not being shot by Reinado, which is clear – and by implication then focuses on FDTL soldiers. Problem is:
a. there was a major firefight between Reinado’s death and JRH turning up. ie Reinado’s men were shooting at FDTL, and vice versa. The ‘Toohey version’ seems to sideline that, as if Reinado’s death somehow puts his group in the clear. When If anyhting, it would have enraged them.
b. The FDTL theory is made less likely by JRH having FDTL bodyguards, one of whom was shot. were they really shooting at their cormades (whatever theory some people are working towards re JRH).
c. As for Reinado being ’set up and ambushed’, well, it was a pretty crap operation if so. The three guards were immediately disarmed when Reinado turned up. Clearly they werent expecting him at all.
For now, I’m sticking with the Occam-approved theory that Reinado thought JRH was diddling him on the amnesty deal when it became clear XG was successfully negotiating his support base away from him. hence the reports that Reinado was yelling “traitor traitor” etc.
PS On Toohey in the GG: yesterday he claimed Angela Pires was ‘linked with Fretilin’. I can assure LP readers that’s 100% bollocks. Quite the opposite in fact. Sounds to me like he’s just made that up to support his wider theory.
So, beware of what you read….
The Reinado explanation is starting to look at bit weak.
A few more quotes,
“Alfredo Reinado, … in a propaganda DVD ….. called East Timor’s Prime Minister a liar and a “child” and warned him to “be careful”.”
(Notice he didn’t say anything about JRH, the one he or his gang are said to have shot.)
“Reinado accused Mr Gusmao of being the architect of the 2006 crisis…
Mr Alves maintains his son went to Dili to meet Mr Ramos Horta, not to kill him.
“It was just like he was invited down,” Mr Alves said. “He came down to resolve things. I’m 100 per cent sure he didn’t go to kill the President.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23237835-25837,00.html
The Prosecutor-General cast doubt on whether Reinado went to Mr Ramos Horta’s villa with the intention of killing the President. He agreed he was looking into the possibility that Reinado might have been set up to pay his early morning visit on the basis of false information he had been given by his civilian supporters.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23237835-25837,00.html
Well, depends what you mean by the “reinado explanation”, Blogreader.
Did he intend to kill JRH and XG? Im sure he didnt.
Did he recklessly wade, univited, unexpected, and armed to the teeth at 6am into a security compound? Yes.
Did his group then engage in a running firefight with FDTL guards in which (and we know not how) JRH was shot? Yes, clearly.
Did another section of his group then fire on the Prime Ministers car, forcing him to flee, as far as he knew, for his life? Yes.
I dunno about TL crim law, but in Au a dangerous act (eg firign guns) in the pursuit of a criminal purpose (eg kidnapping, armed assault) is still attempted murder by law.
I might add that not one single shred of evidence has been put forward for alternative theories. All we get is his uncle reckons this, his men (ie actual suspects) reckon that. Seriously.
As for Uncle Alves himself – let me tell me something of him. He killed a Liurai, a big man on Atauro Island in 99, in front of 50 witnesses. Then came up with a famous cock and bull story about how how his gun spun through the air and went off accidentally. then he claimed the guy was militia, which he wasnt. Farcical court case ensued, bla bla, he got off.
I wouldnt believe a word he said.
Last thoughts before bed, in what is descending into some “who shot JRH?” saga.
If you want to find out who was an accomplice, it will be whoever lent them the new govt car.
My guess is it was the same people who told them about XGs deal with 100 of the petitioners. The one that made Reinado flip his lid.
my point above is that Reinado’s group are responsible for some very serious crimes, any way you slice it, irrespective of whoever else was involved, or recently in his ear.
My gut feeling on the whole thing is this: Reinado turned up to surprise JRH, angry about a perceived betrayal, wanting to yell, strut and threaten, but without any real intention to capture / seriously harm him. But it was reckless, stupid, poorly planned, and all got out of hand. Pissed off after his death, his men shot JRH either deliberately, or while shootly wildly at FDTL in the gunfight, or he was caught in crossfire.
His men, however, DID intend to kidnap or detain XG. Whether pre-planned, or an angry reaction to Reinado’s death (they had time), they intended to do it, but he got away. Like he always does.
The whole scenario suggests to me they saw JRH as a potential ally, but were unsure whether they were getting shopped, and they didnt trust XG at all. They were already angry at him, as per the DVD released earlier. He wa a target when the forced meeting with JRH went wrong.
And that all points back to the petitioner/ betrayal/ loose cannon reaction theory. A theory which doesnt really require active third parties; merely intrigue, and a shifting pattern of friends and enemies.
Everyone :
Thanks. The paradox is that what you are saying here is the situation was more complex and yet clearer than the news given to us in
Pravdathe mainstram media.The FBI!! Hunh? Not The Cavalry or The Texas Rangers or maybe Chuck Connors. What’s the FB”freakin’”I got to do with crimes in Dili? Dili doesn’t look like Waco Texas to me .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/21/2168282.htm
Remember the US warship off Dili when Little Johnny Howard , having been badgered relentlessly by Australia’s Catholics, finally sent Australian troops into Timor L’este.
Then back in 1975, President Ford and Nobel Peace Laureate, Henry Kissinger, gave Suharto the green light to invade the hapless country.
The tentacles of hegemony extend far indeed! Anybody would think that Freeport McCord operatives have found gold or copper in abundance in E.T. Dolly and The Indons screwed them senseless over the Timor Gap Oil. One suspects quite reasonably There Will Be Blood again.
The comment I was intending to make re request from another thread would be repetitious as it seems to be covered in the conspiracy – who shot JRH above mostly, from what I can gather. I hadn’t dipped into this one, so I wasn’t aware what was on it.
Lefty E. Thanks for that good advice, I have taken it to heart.
I don’t know the whole story, but like others here I smell a dead rat, sorry, fish.
It has been my experience that you can’t build any thing substantial on a pack of lies.
Maybe the truth would help bring the conflict to a faster resolution, it is generations that are missing out on the benefits of peace harmony and prosperity, unnecessarily in my view.
Now regarding that advice, and good advice it was, I still think you may know what happened or at least know somebody that knows what happened, (if you get my drift).
If it is the latter, you need to consider the possibility of filtering, that is, some things may not be disclosed to you, so I’d like to return the favour and say, beware what you hear……
Apropos of the filtering I referred to here is an example of something similar,
“Lieutenant Colonel Lance Collins was one of several intelligence officers who highlighted the existence of a pro-Indonesia group of bureaucrats, academics, media and business people – the Jakarta Lobby
He has since been moved to a training position, despite his claims being substantiated in an investigation by Captain Martin Toohey in 2003.
The Government has denied both his allegations and the findings of Captain Toohey, who agreed with Lieutenant Colonel Collins that a pro-Jakarta lobby existed and that DIO “generally reports what the Government wants to hear”.
“Since I became involved in this thing six years ago, I’ve been confronted with a legion of hired liars who keep pushing this message – I’m just doing my duty, I’m doing what I’m told – and that’s actually the ethics of the hitman, nothing personal, just business.” ”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,16035060-2,00.html
I think this story clears up a lot of lingering doubt about what went on. Sorry for text, cant find online link. Looks like a full fledged, if rapidly decided, assassination attempt against Gusmao – preceded by kidnap plans. Plus confirms Reinado has 11 men at JRHs house. Seems rather a lot for a friendly chat.
The ‘third force’ theories are looking rather dodgy.
The Australian Thursday, February 21, 2008
Gusmao driver tells of headlong flight from ambush
Paul Toohey
DILI — ADOLFO Suarez dos Santos, Xanana Gusmao’s driver since 2002, has no doubt the men
who ambushed his boss last week had lethal intentions. The two bullets that lodged in the
back of his seat proved that much.
Mr dos Santos has revealed for the first time how he got the East Timor Prime Minister
out of harm’s way as his motorcade came under heavy fire from four angles by ramming the
vehicle in front, tearing down the hill on three tyres and later marching his boss
through the jungle to safety.
Speaking to The Australian, he said at about 6.15am last Monday, one of the Prime
Minister’s advisers, Joaquim Fonseca, called to say that President Jose Ramos Horta’s
compound was under attack.
Mr Fonseca, who lives near the Ramos Horta villa east of Dili, wanted to warn Mr Gusmao,
who lives in Balibar, about 10km up a winding, narrow road in the hills above the
capital. But Mr Gusmao decided he would head to his Dili office regardless.
“We readied the cars to go down the hill,” Mr dos Santos said.
“We heard the shooting. The car in front of us stopped and blocked the road for the
Prime Minister’s car as the guard returned fire out of his side window. The Prime
Minister was trapped behind this car and couldn’t get out.”
The attack was aimed mainly at the Prime Minister’s car, he said. “I was working out how
to get out of there. I straightened up my car (and) rammed the vehicle in front, which
was blocking my way. I hit it hard.”
Mr dos Santos said Mr Gusmao was calm. “He was just saying, `Take off, go’. The
ambushers were positioned in four points on either side of the road. When they saw no one
had died inside our vehicle, they started firing low. The front left tyre was shot out as
they got past the car in front.
“I could not know how many shots hit the car. Two bullets hit my back seat but didn’t go
all the way through. The back window was shattered. They were trying to kill me, but they
couldn’t do it.”
Mr dos Santos said the Prime Minister’s car was not fitted with bullet-proof windows. He
said Mr Gusmao also never carried a telephone. His own phone battery was too low to call
out but even if he could have called, his priority was to get Mr Gusmao to Dili.
They drove the crippled Toyota Prado about 6km down to a spot called Fatunabo, where Mr
dos Santos declared the 4WD could go no further. He hailed a truck loaded with people.
“I said to the driver, `Please take the Prime Minister and us to Dili’,” he said.
But Mr dos Santos was still worried about the possibility of an ambush on a bend just
ahead and realised they might be placing the truck passengers in danger. They asked the
truck to take the bend and wait for them on the other side of a valley.
Mr Gusmao, Mr dos Santos and the armed guard walked for about 1km through the jungle as
people emerged from scattered shacks and started following them. “The Prime Minister
told them to return to their homes and stay there,” Mr dos Santos said. “They said,
`Yes, brother’.”
The third vehicle in the convoy had returned to the Prime Minister’s residence, where Mr
Gusmao’s Australian-born wife, Kirsty Sword-Gusmao, and their three children had also
been under attack.
The fourth vehicle from the convoy arrived and collected the three men from the roadside.
They told the waiting truck they would not need their help and drove to Dili, where Mr
Gusmao walked straight into security meetings.
Mr dos Santos did not have time to examine how many bullets Mr Gusmao’s car took. The
Australian briefly inspected it before being ordered away and it did not appear to be
riddled. But Prosecutor-General Longuinhos Monteiro said the vehicles in the convoy took
about 45 bullets, most of them aimed at Mr Gusmao’s car.
He said Major-General Alfredo Reinado’s second-in-command, Lieutenant Gastao Salsinha,
who has strongly denied any involvement, had been positively identified in the events at
Balibar.
Mr Monteiro said minutes before the ambush, Lieutenant Salsinha and another rebel had
approached Mr Gusmao’s residence and pointed their weapons at the police guard. Mr
Monteiro said the guard said to them: “If you take my weapon, you must kill me.”
“They asked, `Where is the Prime Minister?’ They said the Prime Minister had already
left. Salsinha seemed to want to go in the back of the house, asking where the Prime
Minister’s wife and kids were. Suddenly, he turned back and fired once in the air. What
did this mean? It was a signal to the men below to ambush.
“Our conclusion is that if Salsinha had found the Prime Minister in the house, he would
have taken him alive. But because he had already left, the decision was to kill him.”
Mr Monteiro also said 11 men, including Reinado, had gone to Mr Ramos Horta’s house —
seven with rifles, one with a pistol and three who were possibly drivers. He said there
was evidence of 75 shots being fired in the presidential compound but they were “still
counting”.
Reinado was killed in the exchange, which left Mr Ramos Horta fighting for his life in a
Darwin hospital.
Just a reflection on that folks: thats 45 bullets in Xanana’s convoy; most aimed at his car.
No one was hurt.
Maybe he became a Tiger Cat, a deer, or a bat.
You cant shoot Kay Rala Xanana Gusmao, little men.
“February 20, 2008
DILI: East Timor’s military has pulled out of a hunt for rebels accused of attacking the nation’s two top leaders.
…“Why should we go to places that are empty?â€? asked military chief Brigadier General Taur Matan Ruak of the search, which has focused on the hills outside Dili.
“We have already cancelled our operations … cancelling does not mean that there will not be any operation again.â€? ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23246251-2703,00.html
February 22, 2008
East Timor in renewed hunt for would-be assassins
By Stephanie March in Dili
East Timor’s police and military have started a new operation to search for the rebels
Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao says East Timor cannot afford to sit and wait for the rebels to come out of hiding.
“We are starting to go after the rebels. We will go after them and destroy them – destroy them so the people have stability, destroy them so that we can develop our country,” he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/22/2170446.htm?section=world
That’s a bit rich coming from the ex East Timor rebel commander Jose Alexandre “Xanana” Gusmao.
Seems like he is not going along with JRH’s idea.
Here is a curious exhange between Andrew Denton and Xanana Gusmao.
“ANDREW DENTON: Oh, really? Just trying to think. Thank goodness you didn’t take, because this was the early ’70s, wasn’t it? You could’ve taken a disco name. You could’ve been known as Captain Boogie. That would not be good. You could’ve been known as Shaft. Well, it’s a very cool name, I have to say, and if I ever have another life I’m going to call myself that.
XANANA GUSMAO: But not Banana.
ANDREW DENTON: Oh, right.
XANANA GUSMAO: Meaning the Republic of Xanana.
ANDREW DENTON: Xanana Republic, yes. It’s such a cruel game, politics, isn’t it? ”
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/enoughrope/transcripts/s1417333.htm
The Timorese army is probably feeling a bit like the Fox Task Force they have in Tasmania, spending a lot of time chasing a very elusive animal and not having much to show for it.
“The Australian (’s reporter, Paul Toohey) briefly inspected it (Gusmao’s car) before being ordered away and it did not appear to be riddled (with bullets). But Prosecutor-General Longuinhos Monteiro said the vehicles in the convoy took about 45 bullets, most of them aimed at Mr Gusmao’s car.”
Okay, the “vehicle+S (that’s plural) in the convoy took 45 rounds. So the assailants were shooting at all of the convoy, not specifically at Gusmao’s Toyota. Or they were very very dud shots. They were armed with Steyrs and M16-derived M4s, both have built-in telescopic sights. Or this was just a bit of panto.
“…most of them aimed at Mr Gusmao’s car”. So, let’s say 30, or a whole M4 magazine. That would definitely be “riddled” as far as I am concerned. Toohey was then not allowed to see the damage and was “ordered away” away. Toohey says the car “did not appear to be riddled”.
Is Longuinhos Monteiro, on the level?
Background note: East Timor’s Prosecutor General Longuinhos Monteiro was born in Maliana district and is the former Deputy of UN-appointed Prosecutor General Mohamed Othman. Othman is a Tanzanian judge with experience at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda.
Longuinhos Monteiro has a law degree from Udayana University in Denpasar, Indonesia, and was appointed Investigating Judge for the Dili District Court in January 2000. This is after the United Nations Transitional Administration took charge so presumably he was appointed by the UN.
Longuinhos Monteiro comes onto our bullshit detector screen with the news of the serial ransacking of East Timor’s Serious Crimes Unit ans subsequent disappearance of many of its high-value files.
The unit (now disbanded) was established by the UN to investigate the violence and massacres in 1999 perpetrated by the TNI and pro-Indonesian militia around (before and after) UN-sponsored referendum on independence. Files on the massacre at the Maliana police station were stolen, for example, holding the indictment of crimes against humanity against relatives of Longuinhos, Natalino Monteiro, who led and participated in the Maliana killings and Ruben Monteiro, charged with murder.
Longuinhos Monteiro told the media that his offices had been looted on several occasions and up to 15 per cent of the criminal archive had been stolen.
This is another one of those East Timor mysteries: why, with 1300 fully-armed Australians, plus 140-strong Portuguese riot squad, plus other UN troops, those vital records, which also included evidence against the Indonesian General Wiranto, were not safeguarded with a bit more assiduousness. I mean, you’d have to ask. And who was in charge? Longuinhos.
I am speculating that Gusmao would have been glad to be shot of the files as he tries for accommodation with the elephant in the room, Indonesia. Such a carelessness with the files would have been seen in a favourable light in Jakarta, no doubt.
Incidentally, Longuinhos Monteiro himself came under pressure from Gusmao to try and withdraw the indictments against Wiranto, but the Special UN Judge rejected the motion.
Australia, and let’s not forget the US in the background, of course, aren’t all that keen to go after Indonesia either and hence open up a can of worms (or if you prefer another cliche, a Pandora’s box). So, it is just possible that Australia was never guard those files all that carefully.
The Europeans on the other hand, represented on the ground by the ex-colonial masters Portugal, want the International Court of Justice to get involved. Then there are the expectations of the Timor Leste punters, many of whose relos were butchered by the militias.
I guess Gusmao is caught between a rock and hard place.
As far Jose Ramos Horta concerned, he might as well just come back to the family home in Liverpool, New South Wales.
Two separate issues there, Sir Henry. You’re spot on about the politics of justice re TNI crimes. The Turth and Friendship Commission has degenerated into an embrassing farce. TNI officers come along aand laugh at Timorese testimony. Its a disgrace, and should be preemptorily abandonded in protest by the Timorese.
I tend to lean the other way on the the XG incident though. I know the rumours about Monteiro, but he’s not a one man show. Plus the “not riddled” assertion comes exclusively from the same journo who has brought us every mad evidence-free rumour circulating Dili, plus several completely incorrect assertions (eg ‘Pires is Fretilin’. Anyone who knew her would laugh). He seems to be backtracking a wee bit in the latest piece, which is substantially testimony for XGs driver, rather than the Monteiro-approved case.
Plus, Ive seen one picture of the car – and the only bullet holes I saw were high up, two, back door. Not tyre shots. How many high shots do you need before you conclude it was at an attempt on his life, or at least, reckless toward it?
My concern is that the rumour mill is whipping up an exculpatory story for these thugs in Reinado’s gang. Wanna know who was behind them – track them down and interrogate them.
Also: XG immediately called it a coup, an attempt on his life. He conducted 100s of set piece ambushes in his time, and knows a fair bit about them, and what they look like.
Surely if you contemplate ambushing a convoy with the aim of knocking over the leader of a country you would have firepower to match your ambition? Can’t imagine my former superiors being overjoyed with that farcical attempt. Unless of course it was to look like an attempted assassination!
Unless it was planned at the last minute, Zorronsky, eg after an enormous balls-up at Ramos-Horta’s. Looks to some like it was a kidnap attempt at XGs house (but he’d alredy left), followed by hamfisted attack (kidnap or assassination, or just angry unfocussed reactive active after Reinado’s death) down the road, signalled by a shot from Salsinha back at the house.
Plus they were taking some return fire from a Prime Ministerial guard in XGs car.
I might add there’s no suggestion Reinado’s men are crack troops. Most were MPs – and havent been on active duty for 2 years.
Toohey in the GG finally recants of his mad rumour-mongering articles.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23297722-2703,00.html
Geez, I could told him that stuff was bollocks 3 weeks ago.
In fact, I did.
‘..Either Reinado did not trust submitting himself to the court process or other people got inside his head, telling him Ramos Horta was going to trick him.’
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23297722-2703,00.html
Toohey may be right to wrap the story up here, but it remains to be seen whether the “other people” precipitated a better future for the people.
Nah, Toohey’s just trying to save face after being sold a pup, and realising it. Reinado was amply paranoid enough to decide (incorrectly) that Horta was diddling him, all on his own. Just more exculpatory nonsense. So, what it someone was ‘in his ear’? The Reinado group are still responsible for their own actions.
As for better future: I predict yes. Already 500 of the 600 petitioners have come to Dili to deal with the government – in droves since Feb 11. Rumours that the only reasons the rest havent is intimidation from Reinado supporters in Ermera.
Reinado appears to have been the main blockage preventing a resolution.
And so the circle is complete: Salsinha’s #2, Susar, has surrendered and is singing like a canary to save his ass.
Looks like he shot Ramos-Horta, and is fessing to it.
So much for the third hand. Salsinha’s got about 3 days to turn himself in, the net is closing.
Salsinha sounds a little saucy.
Sorry.