Pakistan with a population of 164 million and economy larger than Belgium’s but significantly smaller than that of The Netherlands is nevertheless of considerable interest to the rest of the world, being nuclear-armed, with nuclear-armed India on one side and the Taliban and al Qaeda-infested Afghanistan on the other. The United States traditionally likes dealing with strong rulers. Musharraf seemed to fit the pattern and was quickly recruited as an ally in Bush’s War on Terror. Now the strong man has turned into a lame duck and as one journalist said it is now hunting season in Pakistan.
According to the BBC after the recent elections Musharraf has ruled out resignation, although the PML-Q (pro-Musharraf) party has only 39 seats with 258 of 272 decided. The main opposition parties have fared better. PPP (Bhutto’s party) has 87 and PML-N (Nawaz Sharif) has 66, with a combined total of 153. Hence they can govern without any other parties, though the BBC report suggests they will go for a government of national unity.
At a press conference on Tuesday, Ms Bhutto’s widower and the PPP leader, Asif Ali Zardari, said his party would “form a government of national consensus which will take along every democratic force”.
“For now, the decision of the party is that we are not interested in any of those people who are part and parcel of the last government,” he said, seemingly ruling out any coalition with the Pakistan Muslim League’s pro-Musharraf wing, the PML-Q.
What the election means is a puzzle for outsiders. The turnout at 35% was low, presumably because of fears of violence. The Islamic parties did not fare well. Whether the election is a genuine step on the road to democracy is a question. The Süddeutsche Zeitung via Der Spiegel is pessimistic:
This election is not a great leap forward for democracy, but at most a tiny step. Most voters stayed at home out of fears of attacks.
The people in Pakistan are not to be envied. They have hardly any democratic alternatives. Although it is true that lawyers and intellectuals have been demonstrating for months against the unpopular president, the protests have not produced a political dynamic — partly because Musharraf has dealt with them severely. The parties function like dynasties. A few families have all the say and consider power to be a type of inheritance. One of the many Pakistani military rulers once said that parliamentary democracy did not suit the country or its people. That was wrong then, and still is today. It is the elite who do not suit the people. But this parliamentary election offers little hope that they will be replaced.
A bleaker view is given by Fatima Bhutto talking to Phillip Adams. She gives an astonishing account of blatant vote-rigging by the PPP in Benazir Bhutto’s own home province. Apparently the province has been governed by the PPP for years and has been characterised by corruption and political malfeasance, according to Fatima Bhutto (I think she’s a cousin* of Benazir, but obviously no supporter).
Fatima Bhutto thinks there would be no problem in any of the three main parties working together because they stand for nothing and are equally corrupt, interested only in power and themselves. The main city in Bhutto’s home province, according to Fatima, has one hospital for 4 million people, open sewers, “ghost” schools and most houses lack electricity.
One thing that won’t happen unless there is a two-third’s majority in the government coalition is the impeachment of Musharraf.
Any other perspectives from people more knowledgeable than I would be welcome. There was an interesting interview on Lateline with Senator Mushahid Hussain, Secretary General of Pervez Musharraf’s political party the PML-Q. At least it seems the military will stay out of it and there will be a peaceful transition.
*Update: She’s Benazir’s niece (see Kim at #1 below)
Brian, I think the thing with Musharraf’s man saying on Lateline last night that they wanted to move towards democracy and protect the constitution (ie let the oppo parties form a govt) is all about protecting his continuing role as President. One interpretation might be that it’s sincere. Another might be that he’s praising the constitution after repeatedly trashing it - now that it suits him.
Fatima is a niece of Benazir’s, and a cousin of Bhutto’s son the nominal co-leader of the PPP, I believe, and no supporter at all.
See:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jan/11/women.pakistan
You get the family background in this interview. But aside from that, she’s a journo and a commentator at 25 and obviously a bright spark in her own right.
Kanishk Tharoor has a full breakdown of the results in Open Democracy:
http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/breaking_down_pakistans_election
Two interesting comments:
I think that Pakistan is the looser in the new election. By choosing parties that have afiliation with the Islamic Extremists, i fear that someday Pakistan will be another Afghanistan, but this one with Nuclear weapons. It was the US that provided the tecnology to Pakistan quick posses the nukes, and now the whole west world is worried by the fact. When is people going to realize that Western Democracy doesn’t work in islamic countries? Palestina? Hamas won. Turkey? Right wing islam. Malaysia? Right wing islam. Indonesia? PKS won overwhelmingly in JAKARTA (2004). The other Islamic Countries? There is no democracy, just syariah law.
Turkey?
And the sooner every country is unequivocally democratic and secular the better for all.
Hard to square these comments with the evidence in both the post and the links I provided that Islamist parties did very badly indeed.
Gah I forgot the blockquote tags when I responded to Alfa Dua at #4.
Mea culpa
Fixed!