From today’s Crikey email:
Forget all that guff about some student politician becoming the senior governing Liberal in the land if Brisbane’s Mayor Campbell Newman loses his race for re-election on March 15. It’s nonsense anyway, and it’s moot to boot – “Can-Do Campbellâ€? is sailing towards victory. Private party polling conducted late last year shows Newman with a near 60% primary, and insiders from each campaign camp don’t believe much has changed.
But that doesn’t mean the Brisbane City Council campaign lacks interest. With an integrated Council taking in most of the metropolitan area, a budget twice that of Tasmania’s, Councillors paid just less than State pollies, and a host of cutting edge urban issues to the fore, both the Labor and Liberal parties are playing for high stakes.
Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s “Minister for Everything�, Russ Hinze, pushed through legislative changes in 1982 which saw the direct election of the Mayor. Hinze failed to clear the way for the Nats to take over the city, but did see a succession of outsiders – most notably the Liberals’ Sallyanne Atkinson, Labor’s Jim Soorley and Newman himself – storm in from outside the ranks of Councillors to win the top job. Newman’s problem is that, while he beat Soorley’s lacklustre successor Tim Quinn by a narrow margin, the ALP still controls the Council, holding 17 of the 26 wards.
This uneasy exercise in cohabitation has seen the Libs take a minority of seats in Civic Cabinet, the Lord Mayor jealously guarding his budgetary powers, and Labor Deputy Mayor David Hinchliffe take on the American sounding title of “Majority Leader�.
Hinchliffe, however, hasn’t thrown his hat in the ring for the Mayoralty. This might suggest on one hand that Labor doesn’t like its chances much, or that an outsider candidate, former Queensland Bulls cricketer Greg Rowell, might be better placed to cut through the squabbling and blame gameing being played for a draw by the two sides. The polling suggests the former option is more likely and Rowell isn’t going to pull off a Soorley style upset. He certainly hasn’t cut through the partisan noise by offering an over-arching vision for the City, something Brisneylanders are quite partial to.
Although somewhat dour in presentation, Newman trades on his military and engineering past to present a “Can-Do� image. He’s got the perfect excuse, or justification, depending on your partisan allegiance, for not actually having done all that much with the accusation ready to hand that his grand plans have been frustrated by the Labor Councillors. So far, the campaign has been an unedifying contest where both sides try to claim credit for who has built, or who will build the most buses and the like. Newman has raised the temperature by intimating he might quit if voters don’t give him a Liberal majority, and his own candidates are playing down their party affiliation in favour of branding themselves as “Can-Do candidates�.
The most likely result is a status quo one, but internal party polling Crikey has seen suggests the contest in the wards is very tight, and will go down to the wire. Labor is in trouble from the Libs in three wards – Morningside (in Kevin Rudd’s federal electorate), Jamboree and Moorooka. Since there’s not a lot of daylight between the two major parties – with the ALP having eventually offered support for Newman’s major initiative, a tunnel under the Brisbane river – the Greens are set to be a wild card in the race.
Many inner city voters are sceptical of the road construction agenda, and of the closeness of both parties to developers. So the Greens are in with a real chance in the Liberal held ward of Toowong, and at least competitive in the West End Labor bailiwick of The Gabba. With many of the issues in play among the key ones now dominating the national agenda – water, infrastructure, climate change and transport – this will be a fascinating contest to watch.
Rowell doesn’t stand a chance of winning. Endorsing your opponent’s policies and trying to convince voters that you’ll do a better job on the same issues isn’t the way to win the mayoralty. Rowell would need to outline an agenda radically different to Newman’s to win. If Hinchcliffe had’ve run, the ALP would’ve had a much greater chance of winning the mayoralty. Of course, Hinchcliffe could’ve lost the mayoral race and ended up out on his arse. In such an event, there would’ve been pressure on Helen Abrahams to step aside (again) so Hinchcliffe could have a fairly safe seat.
My prediction? The Greens finish second in at least one of Central, Toowong and The Gabba. Newman will get just shy of 50% of the primary vote and there won’t be enough of a preference flow to Greg Rowell to get the ALP over the line.
Based on the polling I’ve seen Sam, Toowong is about a 30/30/30 split, so there’s an outside chance the Greens will finish better than second, and they’ve got a real chance ot taking the ward. Abrahams may just be a goner, and is certainly worried from what I hear, but Hinchliffe should get a primary in the high 40s, making him pretty safe.
I think that Gridlock Campbell so far ahead in the polling that a ’send a message’ type campaign against him is the most likely option.
Yep, I expect they’ll play that card.
Mark, if the Greens finish second in Toowong with a 30/30/30 split, they’ll need to have a preference deal with each party if they want to win. Whether the ALP and Libs hate each other enough to each prefer a Green to the other major party is yet to be seen. They could always swap preferences with each other to lock the Greens out in a move reminiscent of the Tasmanian deal of cutting the number of seats per electorate from seven to five. Doing this, though, would only convince the people of Brisbane that the Liberals will do anything to win, that the ALP are just as bad as the Liberals and that neither are really interested in a healthy and vibrant democracy at the council level. A Lab-Lib preference swap would see a large Green vote in 2012.
Well, I can’t see Labor preferencing the Libs over the Greens in Toowong – if the aim is to deny them a Council majority, Sam, it doesn’t make any sense.
Anyway, if I were the Greens, I’d be trying to finish first!
I think the rates increases being above the promises CPI increases is Gridlock’s main weak spot along with increased gridlock in the city and projected toll increases. So if they tear into him on his poor economic credentials and his poor traffic mobility record he could be thrown off balance.
Yep, but I’m not sure Rowley’s the one to deliver that message. He hasn’t come across – to date anyway – as having a strong grasp of the issues, and the Libs have been able to point to inconsistencies between what he’s said and what the Labor Councillors (allegedly) have done. I have the feeling that the Mayoralty/Council split enables both sides to muddy the waters a lot – such that it’ll be difficult for voters to work out who’s actually responsible for progress or lack thereof. Hence a lot of potential for the Greens to cut through.
Mark, one of the reasons for the 2004 split between a Liberal Mayor and a Labor majority in Council was that Newman and the Libs amassed very large majorities in a minority of wards (mainly outlying ones) whereas Labor won a larger number of (mainly more central) wards with narrower majorities (reflected in a lower aggregate primary vote and a losing Mayoral vote). What is the current polling showing on this score?
I couldn’t say definitively, Paul as I’ve only seen polling for the wards considered to be in play. But the general impression I’ve been given is that picture more or less holds. The big question is whether Newman has any coat-tails. The “Can-Do candidates” thing and the centrality of the control of Council to his campaign suggests that the Libs hope he does. But I imagine Labor will talk a lot about accountability, balance, etc, and probably combine that with a personal anti-Campbell campaign.
My understanding is that Toowong is firming for the Libs – particularly with almost 25% of Greens voters polled indicating that they are not expecting to distribute a preference to either ALP or Libs. From what I have heard, the Libs are looking at polling 40% in Toowong – which should be enough to get them over the line with Left preference exhaustion.
Hinchy will be safe but I would anticipate a swing. I have also heard that Abrahams is all but gone. Another interesting race will apparently be Holland Park which looks dead split.
All in all, it will be a very interesting contest!
I will be really surprised if Campbell doesn’t win on primary alone.
Hi LP-ers, and especially Queenslanders.
Regarding Queensland local elections, following on from our youdecide2007 project, QUT, On Line Opinion and the Local Government Association of Queensland have set up a new site, qlddecides.com.
We’ve simplified submissions and a few other things after feedback on the old site, but we’ve stuck with the hyperlocal approach, and all local council areas in Queensland have their own page.
Once again, we’re hoping that citizens across the State will report on the race in their area. There’s not heaps on the site at the moment, but we’re sure that this will change from today’s launch.
Hope to see you all over there
–Jason
PS – I have to agree with you Mark – the only real question in this election is how many wards Labor might lose.
Mark, finishing first is what we hope (and aim) to do!
You just don’t sound too convincing on that point, Sam. I’d have thought it might have been ‘planned’ and ‘are doing’ rather than ‘hoped or ‘aimed to do’.
I think are major problem for the Greens is having never been in a position where they could win. Do they really know the effort and attitudes that need to be adopted to win?
Whoever promises to build a bridge from Kenmore to Riverview, and a bridge aross from Bulimba to … um … the other side of the river from Bulimba, gets my vote. In Brisbane at the moment traffic is the major problem. We have far too few bridges, and all of them are traffic bottlenecks. Also open the bridge from Dutton Park to UQ to cars.
I want cheap, reliable and more convenient public transport.
Ash, you value your vote too cheaply.At this stage of the electoral cycle you could be promised all your bridges, a few tunnels thrown in, new city cats, light rail networks, an improved bus service, more bikeways and an underground rail system. You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Ash, the reason traffic is a major problem is not because there isn’t enough road but that there are too many cars! We can never build enough road that there will be space for cars because extra road generates extra traffic. The Greens have plans to build a pedestrian/bike/bus bridge from Teneriffe to Hawthorne to allow faster public transport to the CBD. The people of Brisbane shouldn’t have to rely on their cars to get around.
Steve, you mustn’t have had Drew Hutton knocking on your door if you say that. Ever seen Anne Boccabella in action?
Well I would not mind if we had the Brisbane council way of doing things here in Perth why in Christs name we need the number of Councils we have for a city the size of Perth has me beat.
If they had one council god knows how much the would save,and instead of 10 different planning laws you might get away with one,and save millions in CEOs wages
[Well I would not mind if we had the Brisbane council way of doing things here in Perth why in Christs name we need the number of Councils we have for a city the size of Perth has me beat.
If they had one council god knows how much the would save,and instead of 10 different planning laws you might get away with one,and save millions in CEOs wages]
You do remember who split the Perth City Council into Four councils don’t you John ??
The Hon Richard Fairfax Court, whose electorate of Nedlands has at least 4 or 5 seperate local govt authorities in it’s boundries.
Mark at a very cursory look I would have thought the Greens chances were as good in Central as in Toowong or the Gabba (although Drew Hutton probably has a personal vote other Green candidates lack). Any figures on that?
Also, I know Brisbane councilors get paid almost as well as MPs, but do they also get staff. If they do then a Green victory in one ward or another might really give them a presence as a serious force in Qld politics. If not, then just getting a councilor elected probably won’t have a big impact beyond that ward, and the council as a whole if they get balance of power.
I haven’t seen any figures on Central, feral, but people I’ve spoken to think high 40s is likely for Hinchliffe’s primary.
Toowong is a bit of a separate story, but comparing Central to The Gabba, the Lib vote is higher on this side of town, and the sorts of issues working against Abrahams fewer. Hinchliffe also has a very high profile, and is well dug in. Anne Bocabella seems to be running the same strategy as she ran in the by-election for Brisbane Central – pitching mainly to Liberal voters. But circumstances are different, with an actual Liberal in the contest, and I don’t think it worked a treat last time anyway.
I agree about the importance of staffing to the Qld Greens.
Labor needs Newman to throw one of his famous tantrums in public. Nobody will vote for him if they witness how mentally fragile he is.
His constant lying will also catch up with him eventually’ unfortunately the Brisbane media won’t help expose his lies before the election.
“just getting a councilor elected probably won’t have a big impact beyond that ward”
I think it’s the other way around. A Councillor has certain person discretion and influence but the big picture is set by the Council and Mayor, so the ward may not see much change. But finally having an elected Green in Qld could radically change the political dynamic and the level of attention we get from the media.
d
I agree that Hinchliffe will end up with a fairly high primary close to 45%. I think Boccabella will have more trouble this time chipping off soft Liberal votes. The Liberal candidate Vicky Howard is a very moderate lady with some good community group rep – particularly with Queer and AIDS community stuff.
Something seems to be awry with the Greens campaign this time. I’ve been working with the Lib campaign in the ‘Gabba and I haven’t seen much of Drew Hutton at all yet. In fact, my understanding is that a number of Greens are pretty fed up with Hutton and underwhelmed about his council campaign. I would expect him to run a solid, but distant third with a statistically significant drop in the Greens share of the Mayoral vote.
Sam C, like Mark B I’m a lifelong public transport person. I long again for the days of the yearly bus ticket! But seriously, the biggest problem with public transport in Brisbane is reliability and timeliness. A ferry from New Farm to St Lucia to the city takes around half an hour. Equally, assuming that the bus is on time, it can take over 20 minutes to get into town in the mornings from New Farm from 7.30am onwards. Busy business people simply cannot afford this unreliability and will instead car pool into town and park in a leased car park from an international student at Uni Lodge, Cathedral Place etc. I’m not sure what the macro solution here is – but I don’t think the Greens plan will motivate my yuppy(!) friends to abandon their cars just yet! Maybe a Metro would be part of the answer in a more long-term sense?
Antonio, we’ve put out a light rail plan that takes the New Farm and Fortitude Valley areas. We also suggest putting down more bus priority measures to speed up public transport (getting more people moving more quickly) as well as transit lanes for car-poolers. Car pooling is a fantastic idea and the removal of the lane on Coronation Drive is a huge disincentive as far as efficient use of road space is concerned.
The trick to getting between the inner-city riverside suburbs is to build more bridges like the Schonell Bridge and to start getting creative with bus routes. Kenmore to City via West End, New Farm to Carindale via Bulimba, etc. Buses should be there to fill the gaps between the rail network (and the busways).
Reliability is a problem of allocating sufficient resources. Throwing money down a hole in the ground is only going to starve public transport of funding. We need more drivers, more buses, more trains, etc. Timeliness is a matter of getting cars out of the way of public transport. Bus lanes are one way of doing this, busways are yet another but I prefer the system of getting a sizeable number of cars off the road. Yes, if we had a good PT system there would be fewer cars and the problem would solve itself but it’s a matter of getting in to this loop in the first place. Congestion charges are great at reducing the number of cars on the road and will raise funds for PT. We need to have heaps of buses and trains at the ready, though, so that the system can handle the influx of ex-motorists.
In a statement to the Queensland Parliament this morning, the Treasurer claimed that rating agency Standard and Poors has slapped Gridlock Campbell over the face over his economic management credentials and told him it would have dropped his rating but for the good record of the state and Federal Governments.
Darryl, I fear you’ll find that one councilor out of 26, with a state parliament of 89 won’t get the Greens a huge increase in statewide media, particularly if they have no staff and therefore can only deal with a small proportion of the issues they face. However, a canny councilor can really work a ward, making their presence felt in the local paper, at community groups etc. If the government ignores their issues there will be a real chance of the vote flowing through to the state election in that area, and with the state seats being of similar size, the implications are substantial.
Still haven’t had an answer on whether BCC councilors get staff or not. Even if they don’t a Green win would be a huge morale boost, but one councilor with staff would be almost as good as two without.
BCC Councillors do get Staff. Each Ward Office has usually at least 1 full time or 2 part time assistants. They are appointed by the Councillor. If the Councillor is a Committee Chair they also get extra staff who work out of an office in the City. I know this because I work for the BCC.
I have no doubt that Campbell Newman will have a second term in office… As far as each individual Ward is concerned, the interesting ones are Tennyson, Toowong and Parkinson.. all tight contests in my mind and critical to determining majority in Council.
Just one point out of the blue… watch out for Richlands. Don’t look at the numbers. Look at the circumstances of what has happened in that Ward and look at the candidates. The Liberal candidate has a very strong chance of cleaning that seat up… and the ALP have spent more money in that Ward for this election than the past 5 combined.
Mark, I fear the polling you have seen is not quite accurate for Central. Hinchcliffe is on the nose. His performance recently smacks of lazy politics, such as the Regent fiasco and his blatant attempt to buy votes with free movies and sausages. If voters swallow that nonesense, then they really will get the government they deserve. I doubt the residents of Windsor/Wilston are that stupid.
Anne Boccabella pulled over 40% of the State byelection vote with Lib voters swinging to her based on her superior community and business acumen. I am picking 36% Green/36% Labor/28% other with lib preferences pushing Anne over. Lib voters are quite smart and know that Boccabella will be a better local representative, so they are actually quite comfortable with a business women being Green – note again the byelection. Keep your eye on Central – this is where the real action will be in the coming weeks. Hinchcillfe is panicking, and the Lib ‘can do’ patsie will have sold her soul to Newman by March 15th. The Greens will pickup 2 wards based on sound local policies, and counts for one other ward may take a week before a winner is declared.
With regard to policies, it appears that the Greens are the only ones with any vision. Just imagine an integrated light rail/metro/rail/bus/bike network for about the same price as the NSBT black hole. Much better than the testosterone contest about who has more buses. Reminds me of Newman’s $900M 5 tunnels versus Quinn’s one tunnel ‘plan’. Funnily, we are still gullible enough to believe the same oneupmanship this time too!
Finally, just a word on Drew Hutton in the Gabba – name me one other candidate who has doorknocked every resident leading up to March 15, and one who has for so many years tirelessly supported the community on the south of the great divide. I dare you Antonio. Now stop spreading scurrilous little ‘insider’ bulldust.
No, she didn’t, jughead. She got 33.11% of the by-election vote with no Liberal in the race. Labor’s vote only fell by .13% from the 2006 state election. The informal vote was high at 3.95% and the turnout was only 67.66% of the enrolment.
It’s odds on that most of the non voters were Liberal supporters. Boccabella performed well in the by-election but I’d be extremely surprised if she polls second in Central ward on the 15th. And her performance wasn’t anywhere near as good as you claim.
Results are here:
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/brisbanecentral2007/results/district7.html
Hey Mark,
Crikey always seem to deliver.
Anyway, a quick word on a few things. I live in Richlands and I feel a change is not only needed but a very strong chance that it’ll be delivered. Think in the vicinity of Forde falling to labor just last year. It was unexpected nor was it ever predicted. But if you look at the facts than maybe it wasn’t a surprise.
- Looking at it at face value, the Can Do candidate only needs what? Less than 15% swing? There’s a whole target group for him to work with. Think about it.
- The sitting councilor was forced out. None of this retirement business. His replacement probably doesn’t even know the area.
- Take into consideration that I have seen the Can Do rep out for the last few months now, whereas only in this last two weeks have I seen Labor’s candidate in the area. The people of Richlands are much sharper than that!
- Labor’s candidate for RICHLANDS is focusing way too much time in Forest lake. Maybe he should do some research because it’ll tell him that FOREST LAKE is in Parkinson NOT Richlands. One could suggest that this is down to pure ignorance and not understanding the boundaries of the ward you wish to contest, but it could also suggest that Labor are taking Richlands for granted.
Don’t be surprised if Richlands won’t be in Labor hands by night’s end on the 15th of March.
I’d be very surprised, Davey. I honestly can’t see Milton Dick losing. Even One Nation failed to put a dent in the state vote in that area. But perhaps stranger things have happened.
Mark. I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Richlands fell to the Libs. This is a very superficial analysis but there are about 20% of Vietnamese living in the area. I think the Lib candidate needs 15%… it doesn’t take a rocket scientist work out that it could fall. The libs did a very smart thing by running a young and very popular Vietnamese candidate with strong local roots.
Not to mention, there will be votes flowing from those dissapointed by the way the ALP treated the incumbent.
I think it’s 13%, but it may have been impacted by the redistribution, but that’s a huge ask in almost any election, no matter what the circumstances!
The Libs always used to run Greek candidates in South Brisbane and corresponding Council wards to give them some sort of ethnic edge – never worked.
I’d be happy to have a bet on it if you feel that strongly!
The Greek community is no where near as large as the Vietnamese Community though… I’d say about 30% of the Vietnamese population.
Either way, I think it will be close. Anyone saying Milton is a shoo-in doesn’t understand what is happening down there.
There may be a swing against him, sure, but it’s as rusted on as Labor territory gets. Personal factors only play a small part in determining votes, particularly in safe seats. I notice you’re not putting your money where… etc!
Would you put on money that it will achieve the biggest swing out of any ward?
Maybe! I’d only do that if I had a look at the margins for all the redistributed wards and that data’s not easy to locate, though I’ll try and track it down. I’d prefer to make as informed a bet as possible. I’d put money on Milton winning though.
I should note that I knew him at Uni – we were on different sides of the factional fence and I beat him in a student union election once when we were both campaign directors. Though he’s had a lot more practice subsequently than me at it!
Was he easier to look at in his heyday?
You’re obviously not a fan, look out, and I’m not necessarily one either (though much better disposed to him I think), but I don’t know that personal comments like that are at all helpful to your cause. We’re none of us getting any younger, anyway.
Oh, trust me… it ain’t an issue of age. Anyhow, get back to me if you are willing to place that wager. Surely a Milton win is a safer bet for you, but I am certain Richlands will receive the highest swing. Not being a gambler, don’t expect me to put my house on anything
Mark,
really, disclosing only part of the information is a bit naughty isn’t it. What I was referring to was Lib voters who chose to give not only a strong primary to Anne, but felt comfortable to preference Anne once they had voted 1 for family first. Yes, many did not turn up, but many did, and did not vote Labor. As you note, Labor did not pick up any new votes. Also, many non-voters are typically alternative voters, including Greens, Social Dems, etc and are ususally of the younger age set. For a more complete picture, perhaps you should refer your bloggers to:
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/brisbanecentral2007/results/booth7.html#4
jughead, there’s a lot of assumptions in there – many of which I’d disagree with, but it seems to me that you’re doing pro-Bocabella spin rather than analysis.
It also wasn’t clear you were talking about preferences. Preferences were meaningless to the result as Grace Grace won it on primaries.