<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: The (last?) Obama/Clinton thread we have to have</title>
	<atom:link href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/</link>
	<description>Blogging politics, culture, sociology and life from Brisvegas</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 21 Mar 2010 13:34:24 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
		<item>
		<title>By: Enemy Combatant</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-2/#comment-452340</link>
		<dc:creator>Enemy Combatant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Apr 2008 01:01:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-452340</guid>
		<description>Greater love hath no couple than to sacrifice themselves on behalf of their Party.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AmJu8fMA4cT8WihEt9RNHmol6ysC</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Greater love hath no couple than to sacrifice themselves on behalf of their Party.<br />
<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AmJu8fMA4cT8WihEt9RNHmol6ysC" rel="nofollow">http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AmJu8fMA4cT8WihEt9RNHmol6ysC</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Enemy Combatant</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-2/#comment-452278</link>
		<dc:creator>Enemy Combatant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 23:47:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-452278</guid>
		<description>“How much longer will I stay in the race?” she responded to a voter’s question. “Fifty years? How about one hundred years?” 

Bodicea Brutusina Clinton, the high-profile Bosnian War heroine and Democratic Party presidential nominee hopeful, has personally discovered the secret of eternal life.
As a consequence, Mrs. Clinton has opted to run her campaign on Geological Time. The “True Grit” political performer will launch her Whitewater Mist Youth Dew before the Penn Primaries in a bid to “self-fund” her flagging campaign coffers, thereby courageously “raising her bar of beholden-ness” for potential Beltway donors and clarifying her “transparency index”.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“How much longer will I stay in the race?” she responded to a voter’s question. “Fifty years? How about one hundred years?” </p>
<p>Bodicea Brutusina Clinton, the high-profile Bosnian War heroine and Democratic Party presidential nominee hopeful, has personally discovered the secret of eternal life.<br />
As a consequence, Mrs. Clinton has opted to run her campaign on Geological Time. The “True Grit” political performer will launch her Whitewater Mist Youth Dew before the Penn Primaries in a bid to “self-fund” her flagging campaign coffers, thereby courageously “raising her bar of beholden-ness” for potential Beltway donors and clarifying her “transparency index”.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Rain</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-2/#comment-452257</link>
		<dc:creator>Rain</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 23:03:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-452257</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t know about &quot;assist&quot; ambigulous, I know he has confirmed holding a face-to-face meeting with Hillary Clinton (today our time I think), followed by a similar meeting with John McCain (tomorrow our time). Obama is too busy campaigning apparently to meet - but has agreed to a telephone call with Kevin.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t know about &#8220;assist&#8221; ambigulous, I know he has confirmed holding a face-to-face meeting with Hillary Clinton (today our time I think), followed by a similar meeting with John McCain (tomorrow our time). Obama is too busy campaigning apparently to meet &#8211; but has agreed to a telephone call with Kevin.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Ambigulous</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-2/#comment-452245</link>
		<dc:creator>Ambigulous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 22:43:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-452245</guid>
		<description>brief snatch on ABC radio this morning: Kevin Rudd to assist Hillary??? April Fool&#039;s Day joke, surely????</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>brief snatch on ABC radio this morning: Kevin Rudd to assist Hillary??? April Fool&#8217;s Day joke, surely????</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Rain</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-2/#comment-452231</link>
		<dc:creator>Rain</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 21:57:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-452231</guid>
		<description>You&#039;re welcome Ambigulous.  Sorry for the length of it though. Just been bugging me no end - arrrgghh..coz so many people are getting confused by it. The MSM media hasn&#039;t helped. 
.
Numbers of delegates is the most useless measure, because the delegates are not proportional at all, but biased heavily towards small and red states. Its the Party&#039;s way of rewarding loyal Democrats for fighting in regions where they always bloody lose, so they get extra bums on seats for the National Convention, and some extra voices in Party policy discussions. Obama&#039;s campaign are pushing that measure though to &quot;prove&quot; they have &quot;won&quot;. Not so, it does matter precisely *which* states were won, *which* demographics in those states, and *how* their campaign messages were received by voters.
. 
 Tigtog @ 52 is spot on about electability though. 
Clinton lead the nomination in &#039;quality&#039; with Ohio on March 4th, with a bonus in Texas. Politically, it was quite an impressive slam-dunk, on &quot;qualitative&quot; if not &quot;quantitative&quot; in terms of convention delegates.  
.
Also, on electability need to look at the head-to-head polling, although way too far out in time to be any way accurate - Clinton has consistently won more of the General Election state demographics against McCain. The best US poll outfit is SUSA (Survey USA), and one of the best electoral mapping psepholigists is at:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Mar31.html 
.
One of the important measures is found in exit-polling on demographics. Clinton consistently wins the core &#039;base&#039; Democrat voters, seniors, older women, blue-collar workingclass, and rural voters. In some places, 70% of confirmed Dem  voters have rejected Obama, and in one poll up to 30% refuse to vote for him in the General Election in November if he wins the nomination. This is mostly on policy/political grounds, he&#039;s too right-wing and Republican-Lite for many Democrats taste. This is alo suggested in major primary votes, where a majority of those voting for Obama, are also voting &#039;downticket&#039; for Republicans, not other Democrats, in their congress or state govt positions. 
.
The old rule of politics, don&#039;t piss off the &#039;base&#039;, which is what I think Keating did back in 96. Obama seems to be doing that too, and is a problem in the Genral Election - if too many Democrats just stay home and don&#039;t vote at all. In key swing-states, it takes only 1-2% to do this, to lose the state. Women in particular, but also for example, seniors when he said he would reconsider privatising social security, and the blue-collar workingclass in the &quot;rust-belt&quot; states, see him as an elitist, rich, yuppie, spoiled, Harvard college professor, who&#039;s never done a hard-day&#039;s work in his life, and lives in a mansion he bought cheap through his best mate, a sleazy slum-lord :) 
.
That said, my partner who knows the other BigWig Party names that keep popping up in the media, ie precisely who is supporting Obama, and who isn&#039;t. eg Bob Casey who recently came out for Obama, is pro-life, pro-death penalty, fundamentalist social conservative, and makes Tony Abott and Peter Costello look like tree-hugging lefties. 
.
My partner reckons that there must have been a Party split going on for some time - ie an internal Party power-struggle between the left/centre and right factions and the primary season has brought it into sharper focus. The MSM has Obama as the favourite backed by big corporate interests, Obama also has strong numbers in the Party heirarchy. They helped him &#039;game the system&#039; on delegates etc, and by taking two big swing-states out of play early in the season. 
.
 As Tigtog and others mention, it will have to come down to who has the numbers inside the Party heirarchy, (like it does in many other political Parties) probably behind closed doors in late June - the Party elders on centre/left and right-wings will draw sides, and the world will wait, and see how the numbers fall, huh?
.
Interesting Rudd supports Clinton (I think because on economic policy), and so do the Germans, apparently they disliked his position on NATO too, when he gaffed so badly in one of the televised debates. Some American psephologist pundits see him as &quot; At best? Another Reagan. At worst? Another Nixon&quot;.
.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;re welcome Ambigulous.  Sorry for the length of it though. Just been bugging me no end &#8211; arrrgghh..coz so many people are getting confused by it. The MSM media hasn&#8217;t helped.<br />
.<br />
Numbers of delegates is the most useless measure, because the delegates are not proportional at all, but biased heavily towards small and red states. Its the Party&#8217;s way of rewarding loyal Democrats for fighting in regions where they always bloody lose, so they get extra bums on seats for the National Convention, and some extra voices in Party policy discussions. Obama&#8217;s campaign are pushing that measure though to &#8220;prove&#8221; they have &#8220;won&#8221;. Not so, it does matter precisely *which* states were won, *which* demographics in those states, and *how* their campaign messages were received by voters.<br />
.<br />
 Tigtog @ 52 is spot on about electability though.<br />
Clinton lead the nomination in &#8216;quality&#8217; with Ohio on March 4th, with a bonus in Texas. Politically, it was quite an impressive slam-dunk, on &#8220;qualitative&#8221; if not &#8220;quantitative&#8221; in terms of convention delegates.<br />
.<br />
Also, on electability need to look at the head-to-head polling, although way too far out in time to be any way accurate &#8211; Clinton has consistently won more of the General Election state demographics against McCain. The best US poll outfit is SUSA (Survey USA), and one of the best electoral mapping psepholigists is at:<br />
<a href="http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Mar31.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Mar31.html</a><br />
.<br />
One of the important measures is found in exit-polling on demographics. Clinton consistently wins the core &#8216;base&#8217; Democrat voters, seniors, older women, blue-collar workingclass, and rural voters. In some places, 70% of confirmed Dem  voters have rejected Obama, and in one poll up to 30% refuse to vote for him in the General Election in November if he wins the nomination. This is mostly on policy/political grounds, he&#8217;s too right-wing and Republican-Lite for many Democrats taste. This is alo suggested in major primary votes, where a majority of those voting for Obama, are also voting &#8216;downticket&#8217; for Republicans, not other Democrats, in their congress or state govt positions.<br />
.<br />
The old rule of politics, don&#8217;t piss off the &#8216;base&#8217;, which is what I think Keating did back in 96. Obama seems to be doing that too, and is a problem in the Genral Election &#8211; if too many Democrats just stay home and don&#8217;t vote at all. In key swing-states, it takes only 1-2% to do this, to lose the state. Women in particular, but also for example, seniors when he said he would reconsider privatising social security, and the blue-collar workingclass in the &#8220;rust-belt&#8221; states, see him as an elitist, rich, yuppie, spoiled, Harvard college professor, who&#8217;s never done a hard-day&#8217;s work in his life, and lives in a mansion he bought cheap through his best mate, a sleazy slum-lord <img src='http://larvatusprodeo.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /><br />
.<br />
That said, my partner who knows the other BigWig Party names that keep popping up in the media, ie precisely who is supporting Obama, and who isn&#8217;t. eg Bob Casey who recently came out for Obama, is pro-life, pro-death penalty, fundamentalist social conservative, and makes Tony Abott and Peter Costello look like tree-hugging lefties.<br />
.<br />
My partner reckons that there must have been a Party split going on for some time &#8211; ie an internal Party power-struggle between the left/centre and right factions and the primary season has brought it into sharper focus. The MSM has Obama as the favourite backed by big corporate interests, Obama also has strong numbers in the Party heirarchy. They helped him &#8216;game the system&#8217; on delegates etc, and by taking two big swing-states out of play early in the season.<br />
.<br />
 As Tigtog and others mention, it will have to come down to who has the numbers inside the Party heirarchy, (like it does in many other political Parties) probably behind closed doors in late June &#8211; the Party elders on centre/left and right-wings will draw sides, and the world will wait, and see how the numbers fall, huh?<br />
.<br />
Interesting Rudd supports Clinton (I think because on economic policy), and so do the Germans, apparently they disliked his position on NATO too, when he gaffed so badly in one of the televised debates. Some American psephologist pundits see him as &#8221; At best? Another Reagan. At worst? Another Nixon&#8221;.<br />
.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Ambigulous</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-2/#comment-452157</link>
		<dc:creator>Ambigulous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 11:17:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-452157</guid>
		<description>rain, thanks for that detailed explanation,
cheerio</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>rain, thanks for that detailed explanation,<br />
cheerio</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Rain</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-2/#comment-452137</link>
		<dc:creator>Rain</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 10:01:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-452137</guid>
		<description>As a Canadian/Aussie with family/friends stateside an ex-pat American partner (who I met when I was working in DC in 99/00) it has turned out somewhat nailbiting, huh? And very unusual - But to share some info 
.
1: Down and Out of Sài Gòn @ 46 about caucusing &amp; primaries.
.
Presidential primary elections in formal polling stations, are paid for, and managed by the State govts election commissions, and usually only held in the bigger, more densely populated states, and to save money, they are held at the same time as state govt ballots. 
.
Americans might say for example, that they voted that day, but skipped the Presidential candidate box on the ballot paper - but voted &quot;downticket&quot;. Downticket means they voted on the state, or other ballot election issues. Many states run their State federal Senate primaries at the same time as the Presidential Party primary. 
.
In small states with populations the size of Tasmania, if you count all the cows as well, like Wyoming, way out in the boonies, it costs way too much to run a full formal election process, for what is after all - just Party pre-selection, with very small numbers of people participating. 
.
So, in mostly small &amp; red states, they run relatively informal caucuses, which are like Party branch meetings - 
because these are small outer rural woop-woop areas -- most election years, they usually only get the die-hard Party faithful showing up.  A big caucus meeting would be 150 people. 
.
Because its usually attended by small groups of faithful lifelong Party members, it is basically an informal discussion/feedback session, and then its an Open ballot, not a secret vote - they usually vote with a show of hands, &#039;Ayes&#039; or &#039;Nays&#039;, or people write-in their names, under each candidate, or Party resolution, on a register.  Its run by Party volunteers etc. They also discuss resolutions, on general Party policy platforms and matters, that they want to take from their Branch level to the State and National Party conventions etc.
. 
This year it went totally ape-sh*t in many caucus states, overloaded with thousands in chaos and confusion, and small local Party branches, and Party volunteers etc - couldn&#039;t cope with it very well. 
.
And in caucus states, its only the first of 3 steps and no formal pledged candidate delegates are &quot;officially&quot; awarded at caucuses. 
.
The precinct or district caucus, just elects delegates from among the attendees, to attend the next level, the County caucus. 
.
And at the County caucus, (which is like a regional Party convention), they recaucus again, and the proportion of delegates awarded for each candidate at each caucus step - can change by Party rules, because the delegates have to keep showing up in person at each step. So the county caucus then re-caucuses,  and elects delegates *again* from among the attendees, to attend the State Party Convention.
.
For example, in Texas in one district, the district caucus on March 4th came down about 55-45 for Obama, but not enough of those original Obama district level delegates, then showed up on the day, for the county caucus on 29 March - so all the County caucus delegates, went to Clinton by default. *shrug* 
.
It is only at the State Party Convention that the final &quot;official&quot; awarding of &#039;pledged&#039; delegates for each Presidential candidate is confirmed. These are the lucky ones who get their free ticket to Denver, to attend the National Convention as a member of their State Party delegations, to cast their vote for the candidate they are &#039;pledged&#039; to (but only on the first ballot - if the first ballot shows no winner - then all delegates are free to vote as they will on subsequent rounds, and are no longer pledged to a candidate).  
.
Reputable news outlets will not report &quot;firm&quot; delegate numbers from initial  caucuses, for either Obama or Clinton, until the State Conventions have confirmed them.  
.
What some do is report &quot;projected&quot; delegate numbers - based on projections of the proportional voting outcomes, and then adjust the &#039;projected&#039; delegate totals after each round of caucusing. Most years it doesn&#039;t change much from the initial forecast projections, some rounding up or down by a few here or there, but no major changes. 
.
but this year? Who knows? But the Party rules state that the final State Convention totals, is the only number that is &quot;official&quot;. And most of those conventions from the smaller red states, dont hold their Conventions until June. 
.
Remember primary is just another word, for political Party pre-selection, not official &#039;constitutional&#039; elections - a political Party can select its candidates any which way it chooses, by throwing darts, flipping coins, or consulting the I-Ching, if it wanted to... the US Democratic Party has chosen this way to allow their Party supporters, in all 50 states to have some input into it. 
.
In large states like California, New York etc - millions have to go to the polling booths anyway, so they throw in a Presidential Party-ticket voting ballot at the same time managed by the State government under formal election conditions. Small rural states, (and mostly red ones too) hold cheap caucus meetings in the local school hall, and are run by local neighbourhood Party-faithful volunteers.
.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As a Canadian/Aussie with family/friends stateside an ex-pat American partner (who I met when I was working in DC in 99/00) it has turned out somewhat nailbiting, huh? And very unusual &#8211; But to share some info<br />
.<br />
1: Down and Out of Sài Gòn @ 46 about caucusing &amp; primaries.<br />
.<br />
Presidential primary elections in formal polling stations, are paid for, and managed by the State govts election commissions, and usually only held in the bigger, more densely populated states, and to save money, they are held at the same time as state govt ballots.<br />
.<br />
Americans might say for example, that they voted that day, but skipped the Presidential candidate box on the ballot paper &#8211; but voted &#8220;downticket&#8221;. Downticket means they voted on the state, or other ballot election issues. Many states run their State federal Senate primaries at the same time as the Presidential Party primary.<br />
.<br />
In small states with populations the size of Tasmania, if you count all the cows as well, like Wyoming, way out in the boonies, it costs way too much to run a full formal election process, for what is after all &#8211; just Party pre-selection, with very small numbers of people participating.<br />
.<br />
So, in mostly small &amp; red states, they run relatively informal caucuses, which are like Party branch meetings &#8211;<br />
because these are small outer rural woop-woop areas &#8212; most election years, they usually only get the die-hard Party faithful showing up.  A big caucus meeting would be 150 people.<br />
.<br />
Because its usually attended by small groups of faithful lifelong Party members, it is basically an informal discussion/feedback session, and then its an Open ballot, not a secret vote &#8211; they usually vote with a show of hands, &#8216;Ayes&#8217; or &#8216;Nays&#8217;, or people write-in their names, under each candidate, or Party resolution, on a register.  Its run by Party volunteers etc. They also discuss resolutions, on general Party policy platforms and matters, that they want to take from their Branch level to the State and National Party conventions etc.<br />
.<br />
This year it went totally ape-sh*t in many caucus states, overloaded with thousands in chaos and confusion, and small local Party branches, and Party volunteers etc &#8211; couldn&#8217;t cope with it very well.<br />
.<br />
And in caucus states, its only the first of 3 steps and no formal pledged candidate delegates are &#8220;officially&#8221; awarded at caucuses.<br />
.<br />
The precinct or district caucus, just elects delegates from among the attendees, to attend the next level, the County caucus.<br />
.<br />
And at the County caucus, (which is like a regional Party convention), they recaucus again, and the proportion of delegates awarded for each candidate at each caucus step &#8211; can change by Party rules, because the delegates have to keep showing up in person at each step. So the county caucus then re-caucuses,  and elects delegates *again* from among the attendees, to attend the State Party Convention.<br />
.<br />
For example, in Texas in one district, the district caucus on March 4th came down about 55-45 for Obama, but not enough of those original Obama district level delegates, then showed up on the day, for the county caucus on 29 March &#8211; so all the County caucus delegates, went to Clinton by default. *shrug*<br />
.<br />
It is only at the State Party Convention that the final &#8220;official&#8221; awarding of &#8216;pledged&#8217; delegates for each Presidential candidate is confirmed. These are the lucky ones who get their free ticket to Denver, to attend the National Convention as a member of their State Party delegations, to cast their vote for the candidate they are &#8216;pledged&#8217; to (but only on the first ballot &#8211; if the first ballot shows no winner &#8211; then all delegates are free to vote as they will on subsequent rounds, and are no longer pledged to a candidate).<br />
.<br />
Reputable news outlets will not report &#8220;firm&#8221; delegate numbers from initial  caucuses, for either Obama or Clinton, until the State Conventions have confirmed them.<br />
.<br />
What some do is report &#8220;projected&#8221; delegate numbers &#8211; based on projections of the proportional voting outcomes, and then adjust the &#8216;projected&#8217; delegate totals after each round of caucusing. Most years it doesn&#8217;t change much from the initial forecast projections, some rounding up or down by a few here or there, but no major changes.<br />
.<br />
but this year? Who knows? But the Party rules state that the final State Convention totals, is the only number that is &#8220;official&#8221;. And most of those conventions from the smaller red states, dont hold their Conventions until June.<br />
.<br />
Remember primary is just another word, for political Party pre-selection, not official &#8216;constitutional&#8217; elections &#8211; a political Party can select its candidates any which way it chooses, by throwing darts, flipping coins, or consulting the I-Ching, if it wanted to&#8230; the US Democratic Party has chosen this way to allow their Party supporters, in all 50 states to have some input into it.<br />
.<br />
In large states like California, New York etc &#8211; millions have to go to the polling booths anyway, so they throw in a Presidential Party-ticket voting ballot at the same time managed by the State government under formal election conditions. Small rural states, (and mostly red ones too) hold cheap caucus meetings in the local school hall, and are run by local neighbourhood Party-faithful volunteers.<br />
.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: tigtog</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-2/#comment-445879</link>
		<dc:creator>tigtog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Mar 2008 07:17:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-445879</guid>
		<description>The nomination is looking more and more like coming down to the convention for the Dems.

What I find interesting is that the states where Obama has done best are mostly solid Red states which a Dem presidential candidate will never win no matter how passionate local Dems are about one candidate over the other (cue also speculation that a lot of his wins have been swung by Repubs voting to &quot;spoil&quot; the Dem primaries because they think Obama will be easier for the GOP to beat).

Clinton has done best in the states which are traditional Dem states in presidential elections and in potential swing states i.e. the states that the Dems actually need to win in order to take the White House.

To my eyes that makes Clinton the candidate more likely to beat McCain in November.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The nomination is looking more and more like coming down to the convention for the Dems.</p>
<p>What I find interesting is that the states where Obama has done best are mostly solid Red states which a Dem presidential candidate will never win no matter how passionate local Dems are about one candidate over the other (cue also speculation that a lot of his wins have been swung by Repubs voting to &#8220;spoil&#8221; the Dem primaries because they think Obama will be easier for the GOP to beat).</p>
<p>Clinton has done best in the states which are traditional Dem states in presidential elections and in potential swing states i.e. the states that the Dems actually need to win in order to take the White House.</p>
<p>To my eyes that makes Clinton the candidate more likely to beat McCain in November.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: g</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-2/#comment-445863</link>
		<dc:creator>g</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Mar 2008 05:50:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-445863</guid>
		<description>I felt I had to reply to j_p_z&#039;s comment about &quot;race relations&quot; getting better in the States. rather than bother myself with an academic-style dissertation, I&#039;ll choose the easy way out and reference popular culture.

so I ask, j_p_z, have you ever watched The Wire?

in cities throughout America, in the wake of the &#039;white flight&#039; that followed the tumultuous events of 1968, to choose one example, African Americans have been confined and relegated to the periphery in physical, geographical, political and economic ways that give the bloody great lie to the notion of a &quot;developed world.&quot;

Eastern cities like Baltimore (where The Wire is set), Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, etc, contain ghettoes of unimaginable poverty. a young black man in America living in these neighbourhoods has only one choice: deal drugs, run with a drug crew, live hard and die young. in terms of rational choice, it beats working for a minimum McWage. the murder-rates for the &#039;hoods i speak of is astronomical, yet it garners little press, much less political action.

school-age children are &#039;educated&#039; in an ailing public system that regularly fails them, and in any case it&#039;s only a matter of time before they&#039;re out on the corner, slinging crack or heroin. 

that&#039;s all i&#039;ll say on the matter of &quot;race relations&quot; in America.

except perhaps one more thing - whatever Obama&#039;s weaknesses, foibles, etc, he is a genuine phenomenon, and definitely not something the States has seen before. I&#039;m with him - just because. 

i&#039;ll close with a similar statement to your own qualification - i don&#039;t mean this to sound harsh, i&#039;m not looking for a fight - i just felt i had to bring it up, because the situation i&#039;m describing bothers me, and i often wonder if Australians are aware of how dire it is in the U.S. and sorry about the lack of spaces between paragraphs - i don&#039;t know how to do that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I felt I had to reply to j_p_z&#8217;s comment about &#8220;race relations&#8221; getting better in the States. rather than bother myself with an academic-style dissertation, I&#8217;ll choose the easy way out and reference popular culture.</p>
<p>so I ask, j_p_z, have you ever watched The Wire?</p>
<p>in cities throughout America, in the wake of the &#8216;white flight&#8217; that followed the tumultuous events of 1968, to choose one example, African Americans have been confined and relegated to the periphery in physical, geographical, political and economic ways that give the bloody great lie to the notion of a &#8220;developed world.&#8221;</p>
<p>Eastern cities like Baltimore (where The Wire is set), Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, etc, contain ghettoes of unimaginable poverty. a young black man in America living in these neighbourhoods has only one choice: deal drugs, run with a drug crew, live hard and die young. in terms of rational choice, it beats working for a minimum McWage. the murder-rates for the &#8216;hoods i speak of is astronomical, yet it garners little press, much less political action.</p>
<p>school-age children are &#8216;educated&#8217; in an ailing public system that regularly fails them, and in any case it&#8217;s only a matter of time before they&#8217;re out on the corner, slinging crack or heroin. </p>
<p>that&#8217;s all i&#8217;ll say on the matter of &#8220;race relations&#8221; in America.</p>
<p>except perhaps one more thing &#8211; whatever Obama&#8217;s weaknesses, foibles, etc, he is a genuine phenomenon, and definitely not something the States has seen before. I&#8217;m with him &#8211; just because. </p>
<p>i&#8217;ll close with a similar statement to your own qualification &#8211; i don&#8217;t mean this to sound harsh, i&#8217;m not looking for a fight &#8211; i just felt i had to bring it up, because the situation i&#8217;m describing bothers me, and i often wonder if Australians are aware of how dire it is in the U.S. and sorry about the lack of spaces between paragraphs &#8211; i don&#8217;t know how to do that.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Nabakov</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-445078</link>
		<dc:creator>Nabakov</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 15:45:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-445078</guid>
		<description>&quot;...some decent writers and props people or a change.&quot;

For! I meant &quot;for&quot; not &quot;or&#039;. Who designs these keyboards anyway? Sober midgets?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;&#8230;some decent writers and props people or a change.&#8221;</p>
<p>For! I meant &#8220;for&#8221; not &#8220;or&#8217;. Who designs these keyboards anyway? Sober midgets?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Nabakov</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-445077</link>
		<dc:creator>Nabakov</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 15:42:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-445077</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ve said it before and I&#039;ll say it again. They is only one ticket that can unite a bitterly divided United States Of America.

Oprah/Letterman...

...or Oprah/Leno.
 
Oh what the hell, just replace Diebold with Endemol and put the whole thing on a professional showbiz footing. &#039;Big Brother Survivor Presidential Idol&#039;. At least the candidates would have some decent writers and props people or a change.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve said it before and I&#8217;ll say it again. They is only one ticket that can unite a bitterly divided United States Of America.</p>
<p>Oprah/Letterman&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8230;or Oprah/Leno.</p>
<p>Oh what the hell, just replace Diebold with Endemol and put the whole thing on a professional showbiz footing. &#8216;Big Brother Survivor Presidential Idol&#8217;. At least the candidates would have some decent writers and props people or a change.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Paul Burns</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-445067</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Burns</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 14:03:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-445067</guid>
		<description>Perhaps the remarks about a joint ticket are a limp attempt to prevent what could be a destructive rift. Months of in-fighting until the Convention? I&#039;m getting as pessimistic about a possible Democratic Presidency as I was a bout a Rudd win. Butr perhaps that&#039;s a good sign, because I was wrong, wasn&#039;t I? Still, I can&#039;t say I&#039;m at all impressed by the stance of any of the three candidates about the Venexuela/Ecuador/ Colombia crisis. All of them support the corrupt drug-running Columbians! (Anybody been following that? Don&#039;t answer or we&#039;ll end up completely OT.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Perhaps the remarks about a joint ticket are a limp attempt to prevent what could be a destructive rift. Months of in-fighting until the Convention? I&#8217;m getting as pessimistic about a possible Democratic Presidency as I was a bout a Rudd win. Butr perhaps that&#8217;s a good sign, because I was wrong, wasn&#8217;t I? Still, I can&#8217;t say I&#8217;m at all impressed by the stance of any of the three candidates about the Venexuela/Ecuador/ Colombia crisis. All of them support the corrupt drug-running Columbians! (Anybody been following that? Don&#8217;t answer or we&#8217;ll end up completely OT.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Leinad</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-445035</link>
		<dc:creator>Leinad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 10:40:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-445035</guid>
		<description>Clinton campaign &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/05/AR2008030503621_pf.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;still locked in bitter infighting&lt;/a&gt; despite win. Chief strategist Mark Penn popular as herpes in a can.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Clinton campaign <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/05/AR2008030503621_pf.html" rel="nofollow">still locked in bitter infighting</a> despite win. Chief strategist Mark Penn popular as herpes in a can.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Down and Out of Sài Gòn</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-445025</link>
		<dc:creator>Down and Out of Sài Gòn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 09:17:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-445025</guid>
		<description>From &lt;a href=&quot;http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/181717.php&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Talking Points Memo&lt;/a&gt; - reason #345 why the US should call in the AEC to run their elections:

&lt;blockquote&gt;Readers have been asking about why the Texas caucus results from last night have been so slow coming in. As of this moment, only 39 percent of the caucus precincts are reporting.

Eric Kleefeld called down to Texas, and the Democratic Party tells him, in so many words, that the caucus reporting was &lt;i&gt;voluntary&lt;/i&gt;.

Precincts were not required to report results to the state party, but they set up a voluntary reporting system so that the media would have results to report. Nice of them, no?&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Shakes head.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From <a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/181717.php" rel="nofollow">Talking Points Memo</a> &#8211; reason #345 why the US should call in the AEC to run their elections:</p>
<blockquote><p>Readers have been asking about why the Texas caucus results from last night have been so slow coming in. As of this moment, only 39 percent of the caucus precincts are reporting.</p>
<p>Eric Kleefeld called down to Texas, and the Democratic Party tells him, in so many words, that the caucus reporting was <i>voluntary</i>.</p>
<p>Precincts were not required to report results to the state party, but they set up a voluntary reporting system so that the media would have results to report. Nice of them, no?</p></blockquote>
<p>Shakes head.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: FDB</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-444953</link>
		<dc:creator>FDB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 03:55:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-444953</guid>
		<description>Ewww.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ewww.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: gandhi</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-444935</link>
		<dc:creator>gandhi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 03:08:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-444935</guid>
		<description>&lt;a href=&quot;http://news.smh.com.au/clinton-hints-at-teaming-up-with-obama/20080306-1xem.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Interesting&lt;/a&gt;: &lt;blockquote&gt;Amid the uncertainty, Clinton acknowledged the prospect the two might wind up on the same ticket as presidential and vice presidential candidates.

&quot;Well, that may be where this is headed, but we have to decide who is on the top of the ticket,&quot; Clinton, who usually dodges the topic when asked, said on The Early Show on CBS.

Clinton and Obama both said later it was &quot;premature&quot; to discuss a joint ticket.&lt;/blockquote&gt; Interesting that Clinton is the one saying it. Also interesting to rack up a count of former VPs who sent on to become Prez. It&#039;s a well-lubricated passage.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://news.smh.com.au/clinton-hints-at-teaming-up-with-obama/20080306-1xem.html" rel="nofollow">Interesting</a>:<br />
<blockquote>Amid the uncertainty, Clinton acknowledged the prospect the two might wind up on the same ticket as presidential and vice presidential candidates.</p>
<p>&#8220;Well, that may be where this is headed, but we have to decide who is on the top of the ticket,&#8221; Clinton, who usually dodges the topic when asked, said on The Early Show on CBS.</p>
<p>Clinton and Obama both said later it was &#8220;premature&#8221; to discuss a joint ticket.</p></blockquote>
<p> Interesting that Clinton is the one saying it. Also interesting to rack up a count of former VPs who sent on to become Prez. It&#8217;s a well-lubricated passage.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Andrew Reynolds</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-444919</link>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Reynolds</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 02:13:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-444919</guid>
		<description>Looking at the mathematics unless Obama really slaughters Clinton in the next few primaries there is very little chance that this will be decided before the convention now. If a convention floor vote is to be avoided then one of them will need to be prevailed upon to stand aside.
I can&#039;t see Obama doing this as he is in front - it would be silly. Clinton I can&#039;t see doing it as she has been pursuing this for a decade or more. She probably also believes she can win it on the floor. This is going to be real fun.
McCain, meanwhile is out fund raising and laughing.
That said, it may be good for the Dems if they can stop Obama and Clinton attacking each other. They have two very interesting candidates, both unprecedented in their own way. Both have some interesting ideas (although I personally disagree with many of them) and present well.
I am genuinely looking forward to this election. It should be much more interesting than the last few.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looking at the mathematics unless Obama really slaughters Clinton in the next few primaries there is very little chance that this will be decided before the convention now. If a convention floor vote is to be avoided then one of them will need to be prevailed upon to stand aside.<br />
I can&#8217;t see Obama doing this as he is in front &#8211; it would be silly. Clinton I can&#8217;t see doing it as she has been pursuing this for a decade or more. She probably also believes she can win it on the floor. This is going to be real fun.<br />
McCain, meanwhile is out fund raising and laughing.<br />
That said, it may be good for the Dems if they can stop Obama and Clinton attacking each other. They have two very interesting candidates, both unprecedented in their own way. Both have some interesting ideas (although I personally disagree with many of them) and present well.<br />
I am genuinely looking forward to this election. It should be much more interesting than the last few.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Ambigulous</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-444855</link>
		<dc:creator>Ambigulous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 22:30:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-444855</guid>
		<description>j_p_z

&quot;As I’ve said before, what I want most (and what I think is needed most) is a genuinely boring president, but none of these jokers fits the bill.&quot;

So, if the Democratic National Committee were to agree with you on the requirement for 4 boring years, is it politically possible for them to draft the Nobel Prize winning Al Gore??... With Obama as VP candidate and Hillary to be put in charge of a revamped White House intern program :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>j_p_z</p>
<p>&#8220;As I’ve said before, what I want most (and what I think is needed most) is a genuinely boring president, but none of these jokers fits the bill.&#8221;</p>
<p>So, if the Democratic National Committee were to agree with you on the requirement for 4 boring years, is it politically possible for them to draft the Nobel Prize winning Al Gore??&#8230; With Obama as VP candidate and Hillary to be put in charge of a revamped White House intern program <img src='http://larvatusprodeo.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: j_p_z</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-444815</link>
		<dc:creator>j_p_z</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 16:05:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-444815</guid>
		<description>Oops, I just re-read some of what I wrote above earlier, and unhappily it sounds a lot more splenetic than I really mean it to be, although that doesn&#039;t mean I&#039;ve changed my view.  Just that I mean this stuff in a way that isn&#039;t quite as bilious as I now see it looks onscreen.  That may seem strange, but explicating the difference would take too long, so, maybe another time.

The exception is this: &quot;there’[d be] a ton of spoken and unspoken racial resentment...&quot;

That isn&#039;t really true, I don&#039;t think, upon reflection; or maybe, it&#039;d be partly true, within circles that get smaller and smaller all the time.  This is just one reporter&#039;s opinion, but personally I feel that &#039;race relations&#039; in America (by which I mean primarily black/white relations) are steadily and consistently improving, and have been for many years now.  The very vitality of Obama&#039;s candidacy has doubtless contributed to that, but it certainly can&#039;t claim credit -- this process of improvement has I feel been underway for quite a long time (for reasons that take too long to explain, and anyway, it&#039;s just a personal impression, could be very different thru other eyes).  I think overall that zany flareups like the Jena nonsense are the spastic flailings of an ever-dying source-code of racial bitterness.  There&#039;ll be some sporadic continued troubles in the future, to be sure, but fewer and fewer of them as time goes on, I feel.  Don&#039;t ask me why (I could tell you, of course, but it would take a month), and again someone in another region or in other circumstances might strongly disagree; but still, I felt the need to correct the impression I left previously.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oops, I just re-read some of what I wrote above earlier, and unhappily it sounds a lot more splenetic than I really mean it to be, although that doesn&#8217;t mean I&#8217;ve changed my view.  Just that I mean this stuff in a way that isn&#8217;t quite as bilious as I now see it looks onscreen.  That may seem strange, but explicating the difference would take too long, so, maybe another time.</p>
<p>The exception is this: &#8220;there’[d be] a ton of spoken and unspoken racial resentment&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>That isn&#8217;t really true, I don&#8217;t think, upon reflection; or maybe, it&#8217;d be partly true, within circles that get smaller and smaller all the time.  This is just one reporter&#8217;s opinion, but personally I feel that &#8216;race relations&#8217; in America (by which I mean primarily black/white relations) are steadily and consistently improving, and have been for many years now.  The very vitality of Obama&#8217;s candidacy has doubtless contributed to that, but it certainly can&#8217;t claim credit &#8212; this process of improvement has I feel been underway for quite a long time (for reasons that take too long to explain, and anyway, it&#8217;s just a personal impression, could be very different thru other eyes).  I think overall that zany flareups like the Jena nonsense are the spastic flailings of an ever-dying source-code of racial bitterness.  There&#8217;ll be some sporadic continued troubles in the future, to be sure, but fewer and fewer of them as time goes on, I feel.  Don&#8217;t ask me why (I could tell you, of course, but it would take a month), and again someone in another region or in other circumstances might strongly disagree; but still, I felt the need to correct the impression I left previously.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: j_p_z</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/comment-page-1/#comment-444811</link>
		<dc:creator>j_p_z</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 14:21:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/04/the-last-obamaclinton-thread-we-have-to-have/#comment-444811</guid>
		<description>I think all three remaining candidates are certifiable train-wrecks waiting to happen, but still, the election at this moment at least makes for an interesting look at a chess position.

Hillary has run a positively tone-deaf and politically incompetent campaign, and I think that says far more about her credentials than all the waving around of her questionable CV she can do.  She has run a reactive and unimaginative campaign that conceptually follows Obama&#039;s lead and responds meekly to an agenda set by him, and I think that alone disqualifies her to be president, much as the Dems disqualified their entire side in 2000 and 2004 on strict Darwinian grounds: their opponent was a shady, semi-literate ventriloquist&#039;s dummy and everybody knew it, and they still couldn&#039;t figure out how to beat him.  And then they didn&#039;t sit down and learn a good lesson about it afterwards.  

Hillary simply does not look or sound presidential.  She changes her tone and image to suit perceived marketing demands -- and that is supposed to make voters deposit high trust in her candidacy?  Bill Clinton could actually get away with being a sort of charming slippery chameleon because, ironically, that is truthfully what he really was, so he was really being himself when he did it, and I think voters could smell that authenticity about him, for good or ill.  But Hillary Clinton, deep into a years-long (or maybe life-long) campaign strategy, said in public only a few weeks ago (!!) that she felt she had finally &quot;found her voice&quot;.  Well, certainly good timing to find it before she takes the oath of office!  Perhaps if she were a truly serious person, she might have put off running for president until *after* making this momentous discovery.  Why is it we should give her the job, again?  Because we owe her something?  Or her husband?  Or both of them?  Or because there&#039;s nobody else available?  What?

(btw, following this logic, I wonder what a Michelle Obama run for the White House will look like in 8 or 12 years.  At least we won&#039;t worry about unemployment, because she will &quot;require us to work&quot;!)

If it&#039;s down to McCain vs. Obama, I think there&#039;s a decent chance that the voters will just subconsciously say, You know what, forget the issues, it&#039;s pretty much always better to have a young optimistic guy than a glowering old guy, and then it&#039;ll be Obama in a landslide.  One way or another, the toxic Bush presidency needs to be not only defeated but exorcised, and an Obama victory symbolically cleanses the house of evil spirits in a way that either Clinton or McCain do not.  Of course I think Obama will then proceed to merely truck in a whole house full of evil spirits of his own, but that&#039;s a tale for another day.

On the other hand, it&#039;s worth noting that the Dems are split almost evenly, and that&#039;s just in-house.  If the GOP stays united and really comes out to play (a big if), then that&#039;s a solid 40-45% of the vote right there, and there&#039;s bound to be a lot of Hillary voters who will cross over to McCain rather than drink the Obama Kool-Aid, in which case McCain wins by a bit more than a hair, there&#039;s a ton of spoken and unspoken racial resentment, and everyone stays nervous and upset and unhappy for another four years, as the US continues down its extraordinary path of self-ruination.

As I&#039;ve said before, what I want most (and what I think is needed most) is a genuinely boring president, but none of these jokers fits the bill.  Of the three, Hillary is most boring, which is good, but I think she has the least chance, except in a sort of bitter backroom squeaker that leaves everybody unsatisfied.  So the choice to me seems like either, let McCain continue to wreck America (and also as much of the world as can&#039;t get out of the way fast enough) in the manner we already know, or else let the batshit-crazy Dems wreck it in even newer and faster ways, while also continuing forwards with most of the destructive processes we&#039;ve got now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think all three remaining candidates are certifiable train-wrecks waiting to happen, but still, the election at this moment at least makes for an interesting look at a chess position.</p>
<p>Hillary has run a positively tone-deaf and politically incompetent campaign, and I think that says far more about her credentials than all the waving around of her questionable CV she can do.  She has run a reactive and unimaginative campaign that conceptually follows Obama&#8217;s lead and responds meekly to an agenda set by him, and I think that alone disqualifies her to be president, much as the Dems disqualified their entire side in 2000 and 2004 on strict Darwinian grounds: their opponent was a shady, semi-literate ventriloquist&#8217;s dummy and everybody knew it, and they still couldn&#8217;t figure out how to beat him.  And then they didn&#8217;t sit down and learn a good lesson about it afterwards.  </p>
<p>Hillary simply does not look or sound presidential.  She changes her tone and image to suit perceived marketing demands &#8212; and that is supposed to make voters deposit high trust in her candidacy?  Bill Clinton could actually get away with being a sort of charming slippery chameleon because, ironically, that is truthfully what he really was, so he was really being himself when he did it, and I think voters could smell that authenticity about him, for good or ill.  But Hillary Clinton, deep into a years-long (or maybe life-long) campaign strategy, said in public only a few weeks ago (!!) that she felt she had finally &#8220;found her voice&#8221;.  Well, certainly good timing to find it before she takes the oath of office!  Perhaps if she were a truly serious person, she might have put off running for president until *after* making this momentous discovery.  Why is it we should give her the job, again?  Because we owe her something?  Or her husband?  Or both of them?  Or because there&#8217;s nobody else available?  What?</p>
<p>(btw, following this logic, I wonder what a Michelle Obama run for the White House will look like in 8 or 12 years.  At least we won&#8217;t worry about unemployment, because she will &#8220;require us to work&#8221;!)</p>
<p>If it&#8217;s down to McCain vs. Obama, I think there&#8217;s a decent chance that the voters will just subconsciously say, You know what, forget the issues, it&#8217;s pretty much always better to have a young optimistic guy than a glowering old guy, and then it&#8217;ll be Obama in a landslide.  One way or another, the toxic Bush presidency needs to be not only defeated but exorcised, and an Obama victory symbolically cleanses the house of evil spirits in a way that either Clinton or McCain do not.  Of course I think Obama will then proceed to merely truck in a whole house full of evil spirits of his own, but that&#8217;s a tale for another day.</p>
<p>On the other hand, it&#8217;s worth noting that the Dems are split almost evenly, and that&#8217;s just in-house.  If the GOP stays united and really comes out to play (a big if), then that&#8217;s a solid 40-45% of the vote right there, and there&#8217;s bound to be a lot of Hillary voters who will cross over to McCain rather than drink the Obama Kool-Aid, in which case McCain wins by a bit more than a hair, there&#8217;s a ton of spoken and unspoken racial resentment, and everyone stays nervous and upset and unhappy for another four years, as the US continues down its extraordinary path of self-ruination.</p>
<p>As I&#8217;ve said before, what I want most (and what I think is needed most) is a genuinely boring president, but none of these jokers fits the bill.  Of the three, Hillary is most boring, which is good, but I think she has the least chance, except in a sort of bitter backroom squeaker that leaves everybody unsatisfied.  So the choice to me seems like either, let McCain continue to wreck America (and also as much of the world as can&#8217;t get out of the way fast enough) in the manner we already know, or else let the batshit-crazy Dems wreck it in even newer and faster ways, while also continuing forwards with most of the destructive processes we&#8217;ve got now.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
