Don’t think Rudd would be so stupid as to allow his Razor Gang to stampede enough of his back-benchers over to the Opposition benches in a vote on the issue. That would be tempting yet another federal election.
[Don’t think Rudd would be so stupid as to allow his Razor Gang to stampede enough of his back-benchers over to the Opposition benches in a vote on the issue. That would be tempting yet another federal election.]
Which is why I reckon it’s a complete and utter beatup.
Ireckon as well as the Utilities Allowance as already announced, Rudd will transfer those bonuses into increases in the actual benefits themselves to the value of the bonuses.
Also it seems the Windshuttle rage about phalluses in opera has spread across Atlantic all the way to the Royal Opera. And you thought he wasn’t Mr. Culture Vulture.
See its all part of the castration complex, and as Oedipus’s dad can attest, this darn complex has killed too many fathers already.
From he who outs black armbanders, to global cock spotter and stopper. That’s our Keith! His influence knows no wain. Little wonder the Downunder PNAC Poodle held Keithie in such esteem.
They say wowsers can recognise each other at first glance without having to utter a single word.
Re welfare cuts. As you all know, I’m a disabled pensioner. Now if getting $125 a quarter for paying utilities that Howard refused to give me, and an increased phone/internet allowance of $33 per quarter is a welfare cut, I’ll eat my hat. On the evidence so far, I’ll hold my fire on these alleged welfare cuts. The fact that they were, I gather, announced in the Australian (I don’t read the trash except through links on LP) is enough to make me very very suspicious. Remember what they did to Whitlam in 1974-75! Are we seeing the beginnings of the same again, now that they’ve got their breath back after the election?
Looks like we might have to ready ourselves to fight in the mother of all brawls, eh?
Only discovered the world’s worst painting! Alsatian ogles woman’s genitals while she plays with a kitten. Get out your wallets.Only $1500, but don’t expect it to last at this price. Art lovers only. No time wasters or tyre kickers. http://theworstofperth.com/2008/03/07/doggy-style-alsation-rampant/
The Worst of Perth
Tired of trying to to find quality political videos on YouTube and MySpace. Try Online Video for Political Junkies for some I’ve been using lately for a perspective on the US elections. I use TeacherTube,as well as the better known sites, for my own videos such as ‘The Great Presidential Race” , because it is not blocked by education departments as yet. Many of my mates work in remote parts of Australia where they rely on highly censored broadband connections to watch any video online.
Very little publicity was given to a significant increase in the reported Aids cases in Victoria as opposed to the rest of the country. On Aunty…..
TANYA NOLAN: No-one can say why the incidence of HIV has steadily increased in Victoria over the past 12 months. Figures published in the Victorian Infectious Diseases Bulletin this month show 198 new cases of the cases diagnosed in 2000 - up from 140 in 1999. http://www.abc.net.au/pm/stories/s267637.htm
No mention was made of Steve Bracks’ refusal to allow condoms for mens’ prisons in Victoria. Maybe there is some connection and i was surprised that no questions were asked about this obvious difference in policy between NSW and VIC, for instance.
In any case, when public health is threatened by playing to the prudish attitudes of fundys, it’s worth broadcasting. Got that one off my chest.
Phew.
Joe2,
In the middle of last year, I think, I read a piece on this that suggested many of the new young gays were not using condoms or that condom use and safe sex practices had declined. Re the jails, I suspect needle-sharing might be more of a problem than lack of condoms. For years now, too, people have been predicting that HIV-AIDS would increase as prisoners not only in Victoria, but in NSW, were released from that time, long ago, when there were no condoms in any of our prisons. Maybe that time has come?
In response to the “leaks” about the Carers and OAP bonuses:
I am an OAP, but a policy analyst in another life, so I carefully analysed the unfolding mess of the policy Howard Costello & relevant ministers unleashed on 23 October 2007 - as turgid a sleight of hand as I’ve seen! An examination of the story, from first report in The Australian to Costello’s (ABC 7.30 report 23/10/07) “annualisation” of the $500 “one-off” bonus as an increased Utilities Allowance; ie, a “rise” of $500 - $107 - with a sing in the tail. The $500 bonus had been “per person”, the Utilities allowance was “per household”!
Just to clear up another facet (which will explain why the Senior Cit’s bonus is being re-examined) that $500 went to EVERY AUSSIE OF PENSIONABLE AGE including (as TheOz’s Strewth gleefully reported wen the pyments were made) a “Dear Edward” letter to one EG Whitlam!! Can you imagine how much this cost! $500 to every man & woman of pensionable age +a letter, +a cheque/ Centrelink on-line deposit, +other administrative costs (as well as to carers!) If Treasury got any change out of $Billion, I’d be surprised.
So who would have “leaked” this? Shanahan, whose Oz printed the first report
Another News Ltd reporter, since The Daily telegraph published an on-line report of the unfolding story
As a poster on Oz Election Forums, I (among others) commented on this policy as it unfolded (3 pages of posts!) - note that, once questions were raised the policy all but disappeared!
Rudd might have “Me-too’d” this policy, although the ALP is committed to increasing pensions to a higher percentage of the average wage.
This media beat-up has obviously caused a great deal of stress to people least able to deal with it; and for what? A back-check shows the reporting isn’t within cooee of honest.
So in whose interests were these “leaks”? Why did News Ltd press and the ABC, both of whom have records of the original policy debate, not check their archives before misrepresenting the issue in the media? Why did Abbott come out with a statement (ABC on-line today) that adds new depths to “Jesuitical”?
I have responded along the same lines to Shanahan’s article. I doubt they’ll print it. But the very threat that the truth night be “out there” and I, at least, have indicated that I’ll pas the info on to the relevant ALP pollies (I’m relishing the thought of the first Dorothy Dixer of the next Reps Question Time) might kill this disgraceful beat-up.
I can’t work out why the Links didn’t appear, or why all but the para in italics came out as “emphasised”. I haven’t used this type of HTML tags for a very long time, but I did double & triple check them before posting especially when the Preview showed as above.
Blame my almost 66yo mind. It’s way passed its peak!! (I stuffed up New Matilda too.)
Sorry.
[DeeCee - I removed the empty “a” tags. The Bolding of the text is automatic for hyperlinks on this blog, so now that the “a” tags are gone so is the added emphasis ~ tigtog, moderator]
I am thinking orchestrated beat up DeeCee. And it is sad that vulnerable people have been stressed. It would have been quite nice if many leftys had not joined in the bash when the source of the bullshit is so obvious.
Try copy or cut with the link language and the just paste on a separate line on this blog and it will come up automatically. Tigtog explains things best and i have probably been as clear as mud.
“Re the jails, I suspect needle-sharing might be more of a problem than lack of condoms.”
A good point Paul. I am not sure where or whether needle exchange is available. It just seems most curious that Victorias Aids rate is skyrocketing relative to the other states. I find it hard to imagine that young gays in Victoria have given up on protection while their upstate brothers have not.
Just check out page five of this document to see how hopeless Brogh and co were as Ministers responsible for Disability Services. Funding from the commonweath has been declining year after year and the states have been picking up the slack.
What a great day! Got a cleaning job for long enough to pay for a couple of lights at the local after climbing Chatoqua peak and a run back to the trusty WB 45mins and a new record. Managed to squeeze in sausages onions gravy and chips with a couple of septa mates. They reckon I’m pushin’ the pedal too hard but I’d rather fall off the twig than wither on the vine. Anyway it’s 35c here now and a couple of warm ones to come for the long weekend and the Pinnacle and Boronia Peak records beckon so it looks like a great time to reflect on pensions[not].
Been dipping into John C. Dann’s The Revolution Remembered, a collection of eye-witness accounts of the War of American Independence drawn from 1832 pension lists - grandfatherly reminisecences made with the aim of collecting a war pension. Fascinating. Also taking some notes from an article on the vice-admiralty courts on America in the 1760s. John Hunter, RN, a future NSW Governor, was on naval duty near Charlestown, South Carolina, helping customs collectors enforce the Townshend Acts. Looks like he might have also been spying on the Spanish in the Carribean, though the evidence for that is tenuous. Makes one wonder if early Sydney was a sinecure for pensioned off British spies. Phillip’s secret service activities in South America and France have been well documented by Alan Frost.Deecee, thanks for all that info. Good you passed it on. Confirms my suspicion there’s some evil Murdoch directed conspiracy already goin on at the Oz. Hope the
an increased phone/internet allowance of $33 per quarter is a welfare cut, I’ll eat my hat.
The ‘cut’ is to carer’s supplement not disabled pensioners Paul Burns. DeeCee, if they wanted to allay suspicion they could say “Carers will not be worse off after the budget”. I have not heard them say this.
There certainly are many people out there who react to suggestions of cuts in a very knee-jerk way. It’s good to see that there are some level-headed people on this blog.
The media, particularly the very biased The Australian, rarely report stories objectively or accurately. So federal Labor are going to cut the Carers’ bonus, an election bribe by John Howard in 2004 which he decided to renew after that. These people do deserve adequate support from the Government. This should happen in a proper way - not some one-off yearly payment.
Let’s see whether Labor give ‘Carers’ more financial support in another way before making too many judgements about this. The same goes for the cut of the Pensioner’s bonus, another blatant election bribe by John Howard. Pensioners deserve more than an extra $500 a year in support. There are not adequately supported by the Government, in my opinion. They should have their pensions increased, not receive a little $500 bonus at the end of the year.
“There certainly are many people out there who react to suggestions of cuts in a very knee-jerk way.”
Yep, Alastair the transition from the generalised pork barrel to something more rational and fair might take some working out and the new government should not be spooked by attempts, via parts of team ruppy, to scare the horses.
Why was the standard answer from Roxon, Macklin etc yesterday “we can’t say what will be in the budget” when they could have said “we will make sure Carers do not suffer under budget measures”. This is supposed to be the cost cutting budget; Carers are not surprisingly concerned that cuts in one area will not be offset by other measures. Most carers are living such a marginal existence that those bonus payments went entirely on catching up on utilities, rent etc. If wanting to be reassured that the government isn’t about to make marginal lives completely untenable is “knee-jerk” in your eyes then you are empathy-deficient.
Alistair [23], Su [22], Joe2 [16] …. what the heck, Everyone:
Whether this issue is a beat-up or not, the news media masters know that enough people have been damaged by incredibly stupid counter-productive policies in the past for this story to fly. It was given even more credibility by the tardy and and tepid double-speak response by the Labor government.
Enough people realize that although Howard has been chucked out, many of the ignorant vicious over-paid consultants and public servants who were behind Howard’s policies still infest the place.
If the story originated from Labor as a tactic to soften up the public for severe budget cuts then it has blown up in their faces.
Right now, Rudd is starting to look like a General in the trench warfare of the First World War and his Razor Gang like obsessive Staff Officers who know only one tactic: throwing men against barbed-wire and machine-guns. Any idiot can slash government expenditure …. by contrast, it takes real skill and leadership to allocate and reallocate resources for the best long-term benefit and for the minimum [preferably nil] harm.
Unfortunately for the Labor government, this story now has wings and is flying high ….
“The ‘cut’ is to carer’s supplement not disabled pensioners Paul Burns. DeeCee, if they wanted to allay suspicion they could say “Carers will not be worse off after the budgetâ€?. I have not heard them say this.”
Su, if the government was to react to every NEWLY found and phoney story of compassion and love for the poor and oppressed that Newscorp is likely to run to try and boost Mr 7%’ stocks, now and until their first budget, they would just waste time. A means test is about fairness and that is surely the way to go rather than perpetual one off general grants to carers.
So Paul prefers to consider himself a disabled pensioner than a student,because I was under the impression he was studying something.I am not sure what is going on with carers,what if their were a few disability pensioners who are students as well as carers,possible!?In fact I am as jealous as a dog on a leash of Paul, he lives in Armidale,and so housing and services are all around.I have just read Horin stuff in the SMH and some how the magical birthday of 55 to 65 makes you then a champion of our society if you have a trade skills.The buggars arent that heroic dear!And then there is Harry Clark,whom seems to think a skill shortage after a boom of 50 years means government cannot be blamed…must be a plumber on the side dear Harry!?Since the seventies for all sorts of reasons including consumer protection,the trade skills have been protected ,and if you have been unemployed for some time it isnt easy to put up with trade skilled opinion when it is wafted.All these assumptions about trade skills comes along with changes in technology and materials.There is now another contempt being built up by those who should know better, to always have a dog… to walk on their paws.Do the bloody work yourselves !?
Oh Bollocks Joe2. It is their job to respond; to make sure the public is informed of their policies and decisions. The Age reports a labor backbencher revolt over this and if their was no truth at all in the story then Macklin would have issued a flat out denial.
You can reassure people without revealing aspects of the budget, even if they involve a restructuring via means tests etc. Instead they have chosen the ‘no comment’ approach. Do I consider that an admission that they are about to penalize the most vulnerable? You betcha, as would anyone not blinded by an uncritical cheer squad mentality.
Time and again government policy making in the area of disabiltiy and mental health has been disastrous for the disabled and their carers. When they moved to deinstitutionalize these groups did they divert all of the funding once spent on facilities to the support of those people in the community. Hell No. When they moved from segregated education to mainstreaming then ‘inclusion’ did they use the funds once spent on special ed units to fully support these children in regular schools. Hell no. There is a history of robbing the poorest, most disadvantaged elements of the community.
If this government produces a budget that results in a material disadvantage for the many, many carers living hand to mouth they will send them to the wall.
Reacting without knowing or checking the full facts is knee-jerk.
“If wanting to be reassured that the government isn’t about to make marginal lives completely untenable is “knee-jerkâ€? in your eyes then you are empathy-deficient.”
I reject that statement completely. Unleashing criticism when they do not know the full facts is not showing as people ‘wanting to be reassured’. I’m saying that it is not clear at all whether any of these groups will be worse off. You making remarks like that show that you are happy to make knee-jerk reactions whilst not checking the full facts.
Your last personal attack, apart from being complete nonsense, is completely uncalled for and doesn’t speak very well for you that you need to resort to that.
Graham, I agree it hasn’t gone over too well with the public. The mainly biased media haven’t helped. However, it is mainly the Labor Government’s own fault. They should have announced that they are cutting those one-off bonuses but are replacing them with something permanent (preferably something bigger and better) [By the way SU - read this before making more idiotic and baseless attacks].
“Any idiot can slash government expenditure” True. Same can be said that any idiot can spend like crazy. Of course, getting the balance right is important, and I agree with your statement “it takes real skill and leadership to allocate and reallocate resources for the best long-term benefit and for the minimum [preferably nil] harm”.
“It is their job to respond; to make sure the public is informed of their policies and decisions.”
Su, their policies have been out there. They now have the advantage of seeing the treasury books to make decisions. I get the impression that many are jumping to conclusions based on mischievous rumour. Give them a chance to look at matters of welfare rationally and most importantly, fairly.
I get the impression that many are jumping to conclusions based on mischievous rumour.
This is what I think happened. Someone is disturbed by the turn of discussions in budget meetings and leaks to press (unless it was a deliberate leak to judge opinion). Rudd and Swann let Jenny Macklin swing in the breeze for 24 hours while they gauge the strength of feeling in the community. Rudd gets to be the hero.
Or it was all a terrible snafu and instead of issuing an immediate correction, Macklin and Roxon are uncharacteristically inept at handling media questions. Rudd has to (sigh) march in and save the ladeez from themselves.
It seems that Howard was an equal to Whitlam as an economic manager. Link
But as welfare advocates and unions yesterday joined the Opposition in condemning the social spending cuts, the Treasury said spending under the Howard government was unsustainable and likened its profligacy to that of the Whitlam Labor government.
A Treasury report provided crucial support for Wayne Swan’s insistence on the need for deep spending cuts in the 2008-09 budget to ease pressure on inflation and interest rates.
“The recent growth in spending stands out, along with the growth in spending under Whitlam in 1974-75 and the increased spending following the recessions in 1982-83 and 1990-91,” the Treasury report stated.
I am well aware the alleged cuts are supposed to be to carers and aged pensioners. My point was Rudd was giving allowances to disabled and other pensioners that JWH has spent 11 years demonising.That doesn’t sound like the actions of a government about to cut aged and carer allowances. As many have already remarked - a huge conservative beat-up.
Phil Travers, if you had the things wrong with you I’ve got wrong with me you would NOT be jealous. I’m an independent scholar, not a student.Graduated years ago.
Go ahead, Sir Henry, please unburden youself. So you’ve puchased a new sound system to enhance the vibrations around Caingbroke Manor. I’m sure Lady C. was deeply impressed with your initiative. Perhaps you should have taken “expert advice” from Uncle Wazza or other such techno autodidacts before attempting to install?
Did you end up kicking the shit out of it in a fit of pique, or just slump resignedly into your leather armchair and read some Rabelais?
I doubt whether Sham-I-Am and the Federal Opposition know what a can of worms they have opened up with their carers beatup. Wonder if they are prepared to face the whirlwind that is headed their way?
“You can reassure people without revealing aspects of the budget”
Exactly. It stops your government looking just as mean and tricky as the previous one. Politics is as much about perceptions as about reality.
Joe2 [33]:
“Give them a chance to look at matters of welfare rationally and most importantly, fairly”.
I think this may be the root cause of all the anger and disgust now - even though the story itself is likely to be nothing but a frothy beat-up.
Previous governments, whether Labor or Coalition, have come in and whatever their platforms or promises may have been, then made irrational counter-productive and damaging attacks on the most vulnerable in our society. These unnecessary attacks have always been after claimimg to have looked at welfare rationally and fairly …. and always under the pretext of saving money when, in the long run, they are no such thing. The public has seen this pattern so often before that, this time, an immediate over-the-top reaction was inevitable …. and I suggest this was in the mind of whoever was behind getting this story out.
Alastair [31]:
If they were going to make a big cut in something, they would have been better off coming out with a bold honest statement that this is what they were going to do. Boldness was one of the most important factors in Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s success and outweighed his many faults; Rudd could have learned something from him there - Beattie certainly did. The public does not like being stuffed around - nor sneakiness, trickiness and double-talk.
Graham Bell @43. Tim Dunlop at blogocracy confirmed my view, calling this a government kite flying exercise. And as someone in comments pointed out the whole point of that is to gauge the direction and strength of public opinion. So this “Shhh>/em… Kevin is working” attitude is bizaarely naive.
Barrack Obama just won Wyoming. I think that extends his lead over Clinton by about 3 delegates.
As his campaign manager (David Ploufe) just said, Clinton has to win like a million percent (which in this case looks something like 68%) in every remaining contest to overtake Obama in pledged delegates now.
“Clinton has to win like a million percent (which in this case looks something like 68%) in every remaining contest to overtake Obama in pledged delegates now.”
Not so fast. What you have to keep in mind is, Clinton only has to win by a good solid margin (say 57-43) in Pennsylvania, to give the Dem party bosses the shits and make them stay up sleepless at night from now til November.
Here’s the thing. Obama has won many or even most of his delegates in states where his victory is mostly irrelevant from an electoral college point of view, because many of his carried states are either a) states the Dems would have won anyway, even if a baked potato were running against the GOP, or else b) states that the GOP is likely going to win anyway, no matter what.
Which means that the Dem party bosses have a sort of gambling man’s dilemma, and they will have to play some serious poker at the convention using the superdelegates as chips.
One scenario is: seeing how Hillary can carry the battleground states like Ohio, and assuming that the conga line of lunatics that makes up the Dem base can hold steady, maybe picking Hillary as the safe, name-brand, reliable, white, non-controversial (relatively) candidate can win the swing voters (which is where the Dems keep losing) and so take the race. But this risks seriously pissing off the black vote, which will see it as a sellout. Maybe the Dems can count on the black vote anyway in that case, and maybe they can’t. It’s hard to tell.
The other scenario is to bet big on Obama’s charisma and his image as the only new, young, energetic, optimistic, not-massively-compromised candidate, and hope that that is enough to hold the base and pry swing voters loose from McCain, which seems like a good possibility if Obama’s leftist lunacy (and his wife’s crazy loose-cannon mouth) can be kept locked in the attic until December. But he carries the risk of losing Dem swing voters to McCain for many obvious reasons, and his risk of doing that is greater than Hillary’s.
It’s a great, brilliant poker player’s problem, because you really can’t see which cards the swing voters are building their hand on. As Cesar Romero would have said in his Joker makeup, “DelICious!”
This is going to come down to an all-night poker game no matter what, unless Obama somehow wins BIG in Pennsylvania, which will knock Clinton out and tell the tea-leaf-readers something they need to know.
But if he doesn’t… How would you bet? What do you do? What DO you do?
First thing Id do (and I dont know anything about party structure in the US) is get the party bigwigs in, sit ‘em both down and say “this only continues past Pennsylvania if you both sign in blood today to campaign all election for the other if you lose. If you dont sign, we’re telling every superdelegate from Alaska to Florida to vote you down. We will seriously f*ck you up.”
If Clinton wins, a joint ticket looks a winner. Cant see her signing as as VP, so the other combo is harder.
I’m all for Clinton/Obama. It’s very hard to work out who’s ahead in the “popular vote” anyway - how do you compare a caucus to a primary - but the big swing states thing has to mean something.
Fine, but it doesn’t make sense, GregM - it really highlights the imbalance in experience, and the promise of a Cinton/Obama ticket is that Obama would succeed Clinton as a Presidential candidate. Hard to see it working the other way round if Obama served two terms and Hillary were 68.
“First thing I’d do… is get the party bigwigs in, sit ‘em both down and say…”
That might have worked in the old days, back when the Democratic Party still had a few adults and sane people in it. But times have (*cough cough Pelosi cough cough*) changed. Why do you think we’ve had Bush for president, for what seems like an eternity?
…meanwhile, here’s a number from “Barack Obama Superstar!” — a rock opera (apologies to Rice and Lloyd-Webber)
To the tune of “Hosannah”…
CROWD:
O-Bama, hey-Bama,
Bama, Bama ho!
Bama-hey, Bama-oh, Ba-ma!
B., you’ve got the goods,
Just like Ti-ger Woods!
Bama-O, Bama-Hey, Superstar!
BILL CLINTON: (sourly)
Tell your rabble they’re insane
Since you won’t win against McCain!
This crowd of jerks
Will blow the works.
We must win without Barack
So we can then lose in Iraq!
Stick to the plan.
‘Cause Hil’s our man.
CROWD:
[repeat O-bama nonsense]
BARACK SUPERSTAR:
Why waste your breath
Trying to make sense?
These are folks who faint
For politicians!
If CNN went dead the noise would still continue;
Each campus leftist crank
Would start to sing…
BARACK AND CROWD:
O-bama, hey, Bama,
Bama, Bama-O!
Bama-hey, Bama-oh-Bama!
We will beat Mc-Cain,
Though my name’s Hus-sein!
Bama-O, Bama-hey, Superstar!
[nifty xylophone ditty then exeunt]
I have to say I’m almost hoping for an Obama victory just because his name is so much more fun to play with than the other two. It would almost be worth seeing America be ruined even worse than Bush is doing, and Bush seems to be going full-throttle trying to destroy as much of it as he can before he leaves office…
I don’t know who any of these people are, in our government. Space aliens, I figure. Maybe Red Lectroids. They couldn’t possibly be actual American citizens. I think that movie “They Live!” probably had it right.
Sir Henry: “Ken Howard also said: “Never try to educate a bad mugâ€? EC”
Ok, so you kicked the shit out of your new 7.1 home entertainment centre because you couldn’t wire it up without “professional help”. No need to get toey about it. Expensive therapy but ultimately therapeutic, I’m sure. At least you didn’t “blow up” like Neddy Smith used to when “challenged” by an uppity towie.
Ken Howard also said that past form can be a good guide to present performance.
Kim, this is the sort of “popular vote” pulling power that Obama can muster. Pretty impressive really, a nine-fold increase….I don’t believe you heard me there…A NINE-FOLD INCREASE in punter turnout from last time. Augurs well for the sort of support he could mobilise come November.
“Party officials reported extremely high turnout at caucus sites across the state. In Laramie County, more than 1,500 came to cast votes at the caucus site, quickly filling the auditorium in downtown Cheyenne. Hundreds waited outside for hours until they could enter and vote. (In 2004, only 160 people showed up for the Laramie County caucus.) “ http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/us/politics/09wyoming.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
“Mrs. Clinton campaigned here Friday, a day after her husband and daughter, signaling the stakes every contest holds in the fierce battle for the Democratic nomination.�
The A-Team came to muster support and were rejected bigtime.
This election is polarising into a Grassroots V. Beltway tussle. Let’s hope it’s resolved a little more amicably than when Mayor Daley unleashed Chicago’s finest during the Dem ’68 Convention.
Btw, for dyed-in-the-wool Sep election tragics, there’s a ton of action on this topic on offer over at The Bludger.
“Enough people realize that although Howard has been chucked out, many of the ignorant vicious over-paid consultants and public servants who were behind Howard’s policies still infest the place.”
Another “infestation” is the general community expectation of middle-class welfare hand-outs. Since the middle-class determines election outcomes, requiring both major parties to commit themselves to an absurd program of delivering $31 billion in tax cuts during rising inflation, why should it be a surprise that a Labor Government is just as likely, if not more likely, to cut grants to those most in need?
A change of Government alone doesn’t change the lopsidedness of Government spending and it doesn’t radically reform the Public Relations machinery of Government either.
This proposed cut in Carer’s Allowance already affects my Mother, who cares for my brother. It is also of interest to me as the health conditions of my partner means the prospect of me being a carer in future. Needless to say, this is the first time since the Federal Election that I have reason to be suspicious of the Rudd Government.
BearCave/Justin
I nearly was going to ignore your post. You have not read a thing about the Carers and Pensioner bonuses and the beat up,have you. Ah what the heck, no wonder Howard was in for such a long time.
Kim, from Obama’s perspective would the alternative make any sense? His is a message of freshness, new thinking and change. How would that go down in the electorate after serving eight years as Hillary’s vice-president?
I’d imagine, GregM, there might be some sort of “I’ll serve one term” deal as a sweetner. Anyway, I think they need to start thinking about McCain’s chances!
Yes, but you’ve got to look at the demographics, EC. You don’t win in November by turning out the liberal college student/professional vote. And in those states where Hillary won and turnout was also much higher than usual, what does that signify?
“What I can say to carers and pensioners right across Australia - there is no way on God’s Earth that I intend to leave them in the lurch.” …. P.M.Rudd.
Kim, how would a one-term deal, or even the very suggestion of one, work for either Hillary as president or for Obama as president? In the first case who would believe her, and in the second why would a 46 year old man exclude himself from the possibility of two terms. Wouldn’t it be completely inconsistent with his message of change?
He is a voice of domestic governmental interventionism at a time of gathering economic turmoil in the US. He is thus a magnet for Americans who may not have voted during times of prosperity.
He is young enough to continue to have presidential aspirations of his own.
He is most likely to endorse the candidate less likely to seek two terms.
Clinton would appear to be that person.
Thus, a Clinton/Edwards ticket seems the likeliest possibility.
But the situation is extraordinarily dynamic. Many other outcomes are also possible.
Kim, demographics count, but delegates at the Dem. Convention in Colorado and Electoral College votes in Nov count more In non-compulsory voting, the more legit voters a candidate can pull to the polls in Nov., the better his or her chances of success.
“First Electoral Map Comparisons
SurveyUSA interviewed 30,000 registered voters — 600 in each of the 50 states — to test potential general election matchups and tally up the resulting electoral votes. Interestingly, Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton put together a very different collection of states.
“And in those states where Hillary won and turnout was also much higher than usual, what does that signify?”
It signifies than they prefer HRC to BHO. Are you suggesting that they would stay at home or vote for McWarmonger if The Kid gets the nod from the Dems?
Clinton/Edwards is interesting to think about, Katz!
It signifies than they prefer HRC to BHO. Are you suggesting that they would stay at home or vote for McWarmonger if The Kid gets the nod from the Dems?
No, EC, I’m suggesting that it’s wrong to attribute turnout to Obama excitement alone. Before it became a two way race, it was still there. I’m just trying to point to the illogic in the Turnout = Obama = Democratic Victory equation.
Btw, I think Guy Rundle might be on to something on this electability thing:
The whole messy contest between two people with virtually identical programs points up the flaws of the primary system as it stands. If Obama is the eventual victor, he may have to abandon a section of that vote and focus on carving his majority out of people who have hitherto rarely bothered to vote. Democratic party heavies believe that he may be able to do that, but that he could also crash spectacularly, delivering the liberal nightmare: the first intelligent, flexible, hardworking, personally honest Republican president since, well, Eisenhower. Obama would either get 55% — or 45%. Clinton, they believe, is more a solid 51% person, and that’s why they’re backing her.
Yes, Kim, neither of them are home and hosed yet for The Nomination in June. Both get record breaking turnouts in “their” demographics. However BHO is over a hundred delegates ahead in the race to the magic 2025.
This assertion from Rundle is rubbish:
“The whole messy contest between two people with virtually identical programs points up the flaws of the primary system as it stands.”
HRC is part of the Beltway Establishment, she voted for the invasion and occupation of Iraq with its concommitant civilian deaths maimings and misery, and its trillion dollar costs(thank you, Hillary, says the MIC) and has never said: “I was wrong to support it”.
Su, you might be interested to know that the Medicare grant of $4,000 for dental services over two years which had been accessed by sufferers of chronic illness has also been abolished by the Labor Govt. Disappointing.
Su, you might be interested to know that the Medicare grant of $4,000 for dental services over two years which had been accessed by sufferers of chronic illness has also been abolished by the Labor Govt. Disappointing.
Casey, that is most disappointing. Please direct us all to the government source of your information.
“– Sen. Barack Obama, quoted by The Politico, making clear his position on the Iraq War.â€?
And also less clear EC…
“Obama said during the debate with Clinton that once he withdrew U.S. troops from Iraq, if al Qaeda were to form a base there, “then we will have to act in a way that secures the American homeland and our interests abroad.” http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080227/pl_nm/usa_politics_dc
Su, you might be interested to know that the Medicare grant of $4,000 for dental services over two years which had been accessed by sufferers of chronic illness has also been abolished by the Labor Govt. Disappointing.
No, I didn’t know that, Casey, and that is terrible news. I believe that the dental services must be under considerable pressure. I usually find them very helpful. My younger son has classic autism and very poor dental hygiene as a result, but after ringing the local dental health clinic we were rather curtly told that the service was for emergencies only. The last time he saw a dentist he had a abscessed tooth and three urgent fillings. I am not sure how much more pain he needs to be in now in order to access their services.
Muskiemp, you should consider that those who have an intimate and ongoing experience of the carer role, might not actually need your links to have some idea of the situation.
Since the head of Carers Australia is unlikely to be able to throw money at the labor party to attend “industry dinners”, nor the necessary status and clout to otherwise gain access and influence, whatever other means exist that may serve to cajole, shame, persuade, bully or otherwise convince the labor party to reconsider cuts to the income of those in the very lowest income range are fair game in my view.
The trouble with “true believers”, Joe2, is that while faith in the stated aims of a party are pretty laudable in my view, absolute faith in a political party serves neither the party or the faithful.
I don’t buy the argument that Kim is putting forward, essentially that delegates from the “right” states should count more than others. The rules of the primary season are pretty clear, the person with the most delegates wins.
The major talking point of the Clinton camp for the last week. That and a whole lot of guff about commander in chief thresholds. It’s pretty clear that they are trying to make an argument to the superdelegates to keep Clinton in the race.
Personally, I think Clinton should stay in the race for some time. The attacks she’s laying out are pretty much the same lines of attack that are open for McCain. Obama needs to demonstrate that he can negate these attacks.
Oh, that and these attacks are now backfiring on Clinton, as predicted by some of her supporters like Joshua Marshal at TPM.
“This is the first step in establishing the Government’s new Commonwealth Dental Health Program, which will be introduced from 1 July 2008. The Government is replacing the previous Government’s limited chronic care dental scheme with a scheme that works cooperatively with States to address public dental waiting lists and provides up to one million additional services.”
Well done Casey. The source you provided explains the nonsense you are pedaling.
Great that they are changing a crap system, with the urgency it needs, even before the budget comes down.
Monica Lewinski’s Ex-Boyfriend’s Wife For President! http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/6013
(courtesy codger at 1290, The Bludger)
————————–
“Crap I started an argument.”
Mick, I though that’s part of the brief here, when we’re not merely discussing events ie.
Enjoyed the Josh Marshall link at TPM. Serves Brutessa right.
Everyone:
Surely not first again?
Dennis Shamaham right on cue over the “Carer’s Cuts”
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/cuts_leave_rudds_reputation_in_tatters/
and yet another leak, this time it’s the “Seniors Bonus”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23338903-601,00.html
Why dont they slash Gummint spending on ads in the GG?
Its not like anyone reads it.
Frank Calabrese:
Don’t think Rudd would be so stupid as to allow his Razor Gang to stampede enough of his back-benchers over to the Opposition benches in a vote on the issue. That would be tempting yet another federal election.
[Don’t think Rudd would be so stupid as to allow his Razor Gang to stampede enough of his back-benchers over to the Opposition benches in a vote on the issue. That would be tempting yet another federal election.]
Which is why I reckon it’s a complete and utter beatup.
Ireckon as well as the Utilities Allowance as already announced, Rudd will transfer those bonuses into increases in the actual benefits themselves to the value of the bonuses.
I’m second.
Also it seems the Windshuttle rage about phalluses in opera has spread across Atlantic all the way to the Royal Opera. And you thought he wasn’t Mr. Culture Vulture.
See its all part of the castration complex, and as Oedipus’s dad can attest, this darn complex has killed too many fathers already.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/03/06/1204402593789.html
From he who outs black armbanders, to global cock spotter and stopper. That’s our Keith! His influence knows no wain. Little wonder the Downunder PNAC Poodle held Keithie in such esteem.
They say wowsers can recognise each other at first glance without having to utter a single word.
The nervous eyetwitch (due to constantly checking the crotch for shameful signs of arousal) gives them away every time.
Re welfare cuts. As you all know, I’m a disabled pensioner. Now if getting $125 a quarter for paying utilities that Howard refused to give me, and an increased phone/internet allowance of $33 per quarter is a welfare cut, I’ll eat my hat. On the evidence so far, I’ll hold my fire on these alleged welfare cuts. The fact that they were, I gather, announced in the Australian (I don’t read the trash except through links on LP) is enough to make me very very suspicious. Remember what they did to Whitlam in 1974-75! Are we seeing the beginnings of the same again, now that they’ve got their breath back after the election?
Looks like we might have to ready ourselves to fight in the mother of all brawls, eh?
Only discovered the world’s worst painting! Alsatian ogles woman’s genitals while she plays with a kitten. Get out your wallets.Only $1500, but don’t expect it to last at this price. Art lovers only. No time wasters or tyre kickers.
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/03/07/doggy-style-alsation-rampant/
The Worst of Perth
Tired of trying to to find quality political videos on YouTube and MySpace. Try Online Video for Political Junkies for some I’ve been using lately for a perspective on the US elections. I use TeacherTube,as well as the better known sites, for my own videos such as ‘The Great Presidential Race” , because it is not blocked by education departments as yet. Many of my mates work in remote parts of Australia where they rely on highly censored broadband connections to watch any video online.
Very little publicity was given to a significant increase in the reported Aids cases in Victoria as opposed to the rest of the country. On Aunty…..
TANYA NOLAN: No-one can say why the incidence of HIV has steadily increased in Victoria over the past 12 months. Figures published in the Victorian Infectious Diseases Bulletin this month show 198 new cases of the cases diagnosed in 2000 - up from 140 in 1999.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/stories/s267637.htm
No mention was made of Steve Bracks’ refusal to allow condoms for mens’ prisons in Victoria. Maybe there is some connection and i was surprised that no questions were asked about this obvious difference in policy between NSW and VIC, for instance.
In any case, when public health is threatened by playing to the prudish attitudes of fundys, it’s worth broadcasting. Got that one off my chest.
Phew.
Joe2,
In the middle of last year, I think, I read a piece on this that suggested many of the new young gays were not using condoms or that condom use and safe sex practices had declined. Re the jails, I suspect needle-sharing might be more of a problem than lack of condoms. For years now, too, people have been predicting that HIV-AIDS would increase as prisoners not only in Victoria, but in NSW, were released from that time, long ago, when there were no condoms in any of our prisons. Maybe that time has come?
In response to the “leaks” about the Carers and OAP bonuses:
I am an OAP, but a policy analyst in another life, so I carefully analysed the unfolding mess of the policy Howard Costello & relevant ministers unleashed on 23 October 2007 - as turgid a sleight of hand as I’ve seen! An examination of the story, from first report in The Australian to Costello’s (ABC 7.30 report 23/10/07) “annualisation” of the $500 “one-off” bonus as an increased Utilities Allowance; ie, a “rise” of $500 - $107 - with a sing in the tail. The $500 bonus had been “per person”, the Utilities allowance was “per household”!
Just to clear up another facet (which will explain why the Senior Cit’s bonus is being re-examined) that $500 went to EVERY AUSSIE OF PENSIONABLE AGE including (as TheOz’s Strewth gleefully reported wen the pyments were made) a “Dear Edward” letter to one EG Whitlam!! Can you imagine how much this cost! $500 to every man & woman of pensionable age +a letter, +a cheque/ Centrelink on-line deposit, +other administrative costs (as well as to carers!) If Treasury got any change out of $Billion, I’d be surprised.
So who would have “leaked” this? Shanahan, whose Oz printed the first report
Another News Ltd reporter, since The Daily telegraph published an on-line report of the unfolding story
As a poster on Oz Election Forums, I (among others) commented on this policy as it unfolded (3 pages of posts!) - note that, once questions were raised the policy all but disappeared!
Rudd might have “Me-too’d” this policy, although the ALP is committed to increasing pensions to a higher percentage of the average wage.
This media beat-up has obviously caused a great deal of stress to people least able to deal with it; and for what? A back-check shows the reporting isn’t within cooee of honest.
So in whose interests were these “leaks”? Why did News Ltd press and the ABC, both of whom have records of the original policy debate, not check their archives before misrepresenting the issue in the media? Why did Abbott come out with a statement (ABC on-line today) that adds new depths to “Jesuitical”?
I have responded along the same lines to Shanahan’s article. I doubt they’ll print it. But the very threat that the truth night be “out there” and I, at least, have indicated that I’ll pas the info on to the relevant ALP pollies (I’m relishing the thought of the first Dorothy Dixer of the next Reps Question Time) might kill this disgraceful beat-up.
Re the above
I can’t work out why the Links didn’t appear, or why all but the para in italics came out as “emphasised”. I haven’t used this type of HTML tags for a very long time, but I did double & triple check them before posting especially when the Preview showed as above.
Blame my almost 66yo mind. It’s way passed its peak!! (I stuffed up New Matilda too.)
Sorry.
[DeeCee - I removed the empty “a” tags. The Bolding of the text is automatic for hyperlinks on this blog, so now that the “a” tags are gone so is the added emphasis ~ tigtog, moderator]
I am thinking orchestrated beat up DeeCee. And it is sad that vulnerable people have been stressed. It would have been quite nice if many leftys had not joined in the bash when the source of the bullshit is so obvious.
Try copy or cut with the link language and the just paste on a separate line on this blog and it will come up automatically. Tigtog explains things best and i have probably been as clear as mud.
“Re the jails, I suspect needle-sharing might be more of a problem than lack of condoms.”
A good point Paul. I am not sure where or whether needle exchange is available. It just seems most curious that Victorias Aids rate is skyrocketing relative to the other states. I find it hard to imagine that young gays in Victoria have given up on protection while their upstate brothers have not.
Just check out page five of this document to see how hopeless Brogh and co were as Ministers responsible for Disability Services. Funding from the commonweath has been declining year after year and the states have been picking up the slack.
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/committee/clac_ctte/cstda/submissions/sub03a.pdf
What a great day! Got a cleaning job for long enough to pay for a couple of lights at the local after climbing Chatoqua peak and a run back to the trusty WB 45mins and a new record. Managed to squeeze in sausages onions gravy and chips with a couple of septa mates. They reckon I’m pushin’ the pedal too hard but I’d rather fall off the twig than wither on the vine. Anyway it’s 35c here now and a couple of warm ones to come for the long weekend and the Pinnacle and Boronia Peak records beckon so it looks like a great time to reflect on pensions[not].
Been dipping into John C. Dann’s The Revolution Remembered, a collection of eye-witness accounts of the War of American Independence drawn from 1832 pension lists - grandfatherly reminisecences made with the aim of collecting a war pension. Fascinating. Also taking some notes from an article on the vice-admiralty courts on America in the 1760s. John Hunter, RN, a future NSW Governor, was on naval duty near Charlestown, South Carolina, helping customs collectors enforce the Townshend Acts. Looks like he might have also been spying on the Spanish in the Carribean, though the evidence for that is tenuous. Makes one wonder if early Sydney was a sinecure for pensioned off British spies. Phillip’s secret service activities in South America and France have been well documented by Alan Frost.Deecee, thanks for all that info. Good you passed it on. Confirms my suspicion there’s some evil Murdoch directed conspiracy already goin on at the Oz. Hope the
Oops, pressed the wrong button. Continuation of 20. Hope the pollies have sense enough to act on it.
The ‘cut’ is to carer’s supplement not disabled pensioners Paul Burns. DeeCee, if they wanted to allay suspicion they could say “Carers will not be worse off after the budget”. I have not heard them say this.
There certainly are many people out there who react to suggestions of cuts in a very knee-jerk way. It’s good to see that there are some level-headed people on this blog.
The media, particularly the very biased The Australian, rarely report stories objectively or accurately. So federal Labor are going to cut the Carers’ bonus, an election bribe by John Howard in 2004 which he decided to renew after that. These people do deserve adequate support from the Government. This should happen in a proper way - not some one-off yearly payment.
Let’s see whether Labor give ‘Carers’ more financial support in another way before making too many judgements about this. The same goes for the cut of the Pensioner’s bonus, another blatant election bribe by John Howard. Pensioners deserve more than an extra $500 a year in support. There are not adequately supported by the Government, in my opinion. They should have their pensions increased, not receive a little $500 bonus at the end of the year.
“There certainly are many people out there who react to suggestions of cuts in a very knee-jerk way.”
Yep, Alastair the transition from the generalised pork barrel to something more rational and fair might take some working out and the new government should not be spooked by attempts, via parts of team ruppy, to scare the horses.
Why was the standard answer from Roxon, Macklin etc yesterday “we can’t say what will be in the budget” when they could have said “we will make sure Carers do not suffer under budget measures”. This is supposed to be the cost cutting budget; Carers are not surprisingly concerned that cuts in one area will not be offset by other measures. Most carers are living such a marginal existence that those bonus payments went entirely on catching up on utilities, rent etc. If wanting to be reassured that the government isn’t about to make marginal lives completely untenable is “knee-jerk” in your eyes then you are empathy-deficient.
Alistair [23], Su [22], Joe2 [16] …. what the heck, Everyone:
Whether this issue is a beat-up or not, the news media masters know that enough people have been damaged by incredibly stupid counter-productive policies in the past for this story to fly. It was given even more credibility by the tardy and and tepid double-speak response by the Labor government.
Enough people realize that although Howard has been chucked out, many of the ignorant vicious over-paid consultants and public servants who were behind Howard’s policies still infest the place.
If the story originated from Labor as a tactic to soften up the public for severe budget cuts then it has blown up in their faces.
Right now, Rudd is starting to look like a General in the trench warfare of the First World War and his Razor Gang like obsessive Staff Officers who know only one tactic: throwing men against barbed-wire and machine-guns. Any idiot can slash government expenditure …. by contrast, it takes real skill and leadership to allocate and reallocate resources for the best long-term benefit and for the minimum [preferably nil] harm.
Unfortunately for the Labor government, this story now has wings and is flying high ….
“The ‘cut’ is to carer’s supplement not disabled pensioners Paul Burns. DeeCee, if they wanted to allay suspicion they could say “Carers will not be worse off after the budgetâ€?. I have not heard them say this.”
Su, if the government was to react to every NEWLY found and phoney story of compassion and love for the poor and oppressed that Newscorp is likely to run to try and boost Mr 7%’ stocks, now and until their first budget, they would just waste time. A means test is about fairness and that is surely the way to go rather than perpetual one off general grants to carers.
So Paul prefers to consider himself a disabled pensioner than a student,because I was under the impression he was studying something.I am not sure what is going on with carers,what if their were a few disability pensioners who are students as well as carers,possible!?In fact I am as jealous as a dog on a leash of Paul, he lives in Armidale,and so housing and services are all around.I have just read Horin stuff in the SMH and some how the magical birthday of 55 to 65 makes you then a champion of our society if you have a trade skills.The buggars arent that heroic dear!And then there is Harry Clark,whom seems to think a skill shortage after a boom of 50 years means government cannot be blamed…must be a plumber on the side dear Harry!?Since the seventies for all sorts of reasons including consumer protection,the trade skills have been protected ,and if you have been unemployed for some time it isnt easy to put up with trade skilled opinion when it is wafted.All these assumptions about trade skills comes along with changes in technology and materials.There is now another contempt being built up by those who should know better, to always have a dog… to walk on their paws.Do the bloody work yourselves !?
Oh Bollocks Joe2. It is their job to respond; to make sure the public is informed of their policies and decisions. The Age reports a labor backbencher revolt over this and if their was no truth at all in the story then Macklin would have issued a flat out denial.
You can reassure people without revealing aspects of the budget, even if they involve a restructuring via means tests etc. Instead they have chosen the ‘no comment’ approach. Do I consider that an admission that they are about to penalize the most vulnerable? You betcha, as would anyone not blinded by an uncritical cheer squad mentality.
Time and again government policy making in the area of disabiltiy and mental health has been disastrous for the disabled and their carers. When they moved to deinstitutionalize these groups did they divert all of the funding once spent on facilities to the support of those people in the community. Hell No. When they moved from segregated education to mainstreaming then ‘inclusion’ did they use the funds once spent on special ed units to fully support these children in regular schools. Hell no. There is a history of robbing the poorest, most disadvantaged elements of the community.
If this government produces a budget that results in a material disadvantage for the many, many carers living hand to mouth they will send them to the wall.
Reacting without knowing or checking the full facts is knee-jerk.
“If wanting to be reassured that the government isn’t about to make marginal lives completely untenable is “knee-jerkâ€? in your eyes then you are empathy-deficient.”
I reject that statement completely. Unleashing criticism when they do not know the full facts is not showing as people ‘wanting to be reassured’. I’m saying that it is not clear at all whether any of these groups will be worse off. You making remarks like that show that you are happy to make knee-jerk reactions whilst not checking the full facts.
Your last personal attack, apart from being complete nonsense, is completely uncalled for and doesn’t speak very well for you that you need to resort to that.
Graham, I agree it hasn’t gone over too well with the public. The mainly biased media haven’t helped. However, it is mainly the Labor Government’s own fault. They should have announced that they are cutting those one-off bonuses but are replacing them with something permanent (preferably something bigger and better) [By the way SU - read this before making more idiotic and baseless attacks].
“Any idiot can slash government expenditure” True. Same can be said that any idiot can spend like crazy. Of course, getting the balance right is important, and I agree with your statement “it takes real skill and leadership to allocate and reallocate resources for the best long-term benefit and for the minimum [preferably nil] harm”.
“Unleashing criticism when they do not know the full facts is not showing as people ‘wanting to be reassured’.”
Unleashing criticism? Gee I thought it was called lobbying. Anyway it seems to have worked.
“It is their job to respond; to make sure the public is informed of their policies and decisions.”
Su, their policies have been out there. They now have the advantage of seeing the treasury books to make decisions. I get the impression that many are jumping to conclusions based on mischievous rumour. Give them a chance to look at matters of welfare rationally and most importantly, fairly.
Bribe for vote is not good welfare policy.
“Bribe for vote is not good welfare policy.”
Oh shit, we’re in a lot of trouble then.
joe2 just left the building.
This is what I think happened. Someone is disturbed by the turn of discussions in budget meetings and leaks to press (unless it was a deliberate leak to judge opinion). Rudd and Swann let Jenny Macklin swing in the breeze for 24 hours while they gauge the strength of feeling in the community. Rudd gets to be the hero.
Or it was all a terrible snafu and instead of issuing an immediate correction, Macklin and Roxon are uncharacteristically inept at handling media questions. Rudd has to (sigh) march in and save the ladeez from themselves.
I know which one is more likely.
The immortal Ken Howard uttered three bits of splendid advice for modern living:
1. Never bet odds-on
2. Never run upstairs
3. Never buy anything from men chewing gum, and
4. Never knock a champion
To this may I humbly add a fifth item:
Never try to wire up a 7.1 home theatre system in a hurry.
It seems that Howard was an equal to Whitlam as an economic manager. Link
I am well aware the alleged cuts are supposed to be to carers and aged pensioners. My point was Rudd was giving allowances to disabled and other pensioners that JWH has spent 11 years demonising.That doesn’t sound like the actions of a government about to cut aged and carer allowances. As many have already remarked - a huge conservative beat-up.
Phil Travers, if you had the things wrong with you I’ve got wrong with me you would NOT be jealous. I’m an independent scholar, not a student.Graduated years ago.
A little something you lot might enjoy, especially Stephen at post 6:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mScdJURKGWM
Go ahead, Sir Henry, please unburden youself. So you’ve puchased a new sound system to enhance the vibrations around Caingbroke Manor. I’m sure Lady C. was deeply impressed with your initiative. Perhaps you should have taken “expert advice” from Uncle Wazza or other such techno autodidacts before attempting to install?
Did you end up kicking the shit out of it in a fit of pique, or just slump resignedly into your leather armchair and read some Rabelais?
I doubt whether Sham-I-Am and the Federal Opposition know what a can of worms they have opened up with their carers beatup. Wonder if they are prepared to face the whirlwind that is headed their way?
http://www.tocc.org.au/media/Final_TOCC_2007_Report_The_Hidden_Face_of_Care_15_Nov_2007.pdf
Su [29]:
Exactly. It stops your government looking just as mean and tricky as the previous one. Politics is as much about perceptions as about reality.
Joe2 [33]:
I think this may be the root cause of all the anger and disgust now - even though the story itself is likely to be nothing but a frothy beat-up.
Previous governments, whether Labor or Coalition, have come in and whatever their platforms or promises may have been, then made irrational counter-productive and damaging attacks on the most vulnerable in our society. These unnecessary attacks have always been after claimimg to have looked at welfare rationally and fairly …. and always under the pretext of saving money when, in the long run, they are no such thing. The public has seen this pattern so often before that, this time, an immediate over-the-top reaction was inevitable …. and I suggest this was in the mind of whoever was behind getting this story out.
Alastair [31]:
If they were going to make a big cut in something, they would have been better off coming out with a bold honest statement that this is what they were going to do. Boldness was one of the most important factors in Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s success and outweighed his many faults; Rudd could have learned something from him there - Beattie certainly did. The public does not like being stuffed around - nor sneakiness, trickiness and double-talk.
Graham, wrap your eyes around this one, it will amuse for sure.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/03/treasury-tells-thuth-about-its-past.html
The Young carers didn’t quite see the last budget the way Sham-I-am did last year either.
http://www.youngcarersnsw.asn.au/Documents/591_MediaRelease.pdf
Latest Galaxy poll.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/three-liberals-ahead-of-nelson-poll/2008/03/08/1204780134767.html
Ken Howard also said: “Never try to educate a bad mug” EC
Graham Bell @43. Tim Dunlop at blogocracy confirmed my view, calling this a government kite flying exercise. And as someone in comments pointed out the whole point of that is to gauge the direction and strength of public opinion. So this “Shhh>/em… Kevin is working” attitude is bizaarely naive.
Barrack Obama just won Wyoming. I think that extends his lead over Clinton by about 3 delegates.
As his campaign manager (David Ploufe) just said, Clinton has to win like a million percent (which in this case looks something like 68%) in every remaining contest to overtake Obama in pledged delegates now.
“Clinton has to win like a million percent (which in this case looks something like 68%) in every remaining contest to overtake Obama in pledged delegates now.”
Not so fast. What you have to keep in mind is, Clinton only has to win by a good solid margin (say 57-43) in Pennsylvania, to give the Dem party bosses the shits and make them stay up sleepless at night from now til November.
Here’s the thing. Obama has won many or even most of his delegates in states where his victory is mostly irrelevant from an electoral college point of view, because many of his carried states are either a) states the Dems would have won anyway, even if a baked potato were running against the GOP, or else b) states that the GOP is likely going to win anyway, no matter what.
Which means that the Dem party bosses have a sort of gambling man’s dilemma, and they will have to play some serious poker at the convention using the superdelegates as chips.
One scenario is: seeing how Hillary can carry the battleground states like Ohio, and assuming that the conga line of lunatics that makes up the Dem base can hold steady, maybe picking Hillary as the safe, name-brand, reliable, white, non-controversial (relatively) candidate can win the swing voters (which is where the Dems keep losing) and so take the race. But this risks seriously pissing off the black vote, which will see it as a sellout. Maybe the Dems can count on the black vote anyway in that case, and maybe they can’t. It’s hard to tell.
The other scenario is to bet big on Obama’s charisma and his image as the only new, young, energetic, optimistic, not-massively-compromised candidate, and hope that that is enough to hold the base and pry swing voters loose from McCain, which seems like a good possibility if Obama’s leftist lunacy (and his wife’s crazy loose-cannon mouth) can be kept locked in the attic until December. But he carries the risk of losing Dem swing voters to McCain for many obvious reasons, and his risk of doing that is greater than Hillary’s.
It’s a great, brilliant poker player’s problem, because you really can’t see which cards the swing voters are building their hand on. As Cesar Romero would have said in his Joker makeup, “DelICious!”
This is going to come down to an all-night poker game no matter what, unless Obama somehow wins BIG in Pennsylvania, which will knock Clinton out and tell the tea-leaf-readers something they need to know.
But if he doesn’t… How would you bet? What do you do? What DO you do?
You’ve put your finger on it, j_p_z. And what if Michigan and Florida get thrown back into the mix?
First thing Id do (and I dont know anything about party structure in the US) is get the party bigwigs in, sit ‘em both down and say “this only continues past Pennsylvania if you both sign in blood today to campaign all election for the other if you lose. If you dont sign, we’re telling every superdelegate from Alaska to Florida to vote you down. We will seriously f*ck you up.”
If Clinton wins, a joint ticket looks a winner. Cant see her signing as as VP, so the other combo is harder.
I’m all for Clinton/Obama. It’s very hard to work out who’s ahead in the “popular vote” anyway - how do you compare a caucus to a primary - but the big swing states thing has to mean something.
Kim, how would you feel about a Obama/Clinton ticket?
Fine, but it doesn’t make sense, GregM - it really highlights the imbalance in experience, and the promise of a Cinton/Obama ticket is that Obama would succeed Clinton as a Presidential candidate. Hard to see it working the other way round if Obama served two terms and Hillary were 68.
“First thing I’d do… is get the party bigwigs in, sit ‘em both down and say…”
That might have worked in the old days, back when the Democratic Party still had a few adults and sane people in it. But times have (*cough cough Pelosi cough cough*) changed. Why do you think we’ve had Bush for president, for what seems like an eternity?
…meanwhile, here’s a number from “Barack Obama Superstar!” — a rock opera (apologies to Rice and Lloyd-Webber)
To the tune of “Hosannah”…
CROWD:
O-Bama, hey-Bama,
Bama, Bama ho!
Bama-hey, Bama-oh, Ba-ma!
B., you’ve got the goods,
Just like Ti-ger Woods!
Bama-O, Bama-Hey, Superstar!
BILL CLINTON: (sourly)
Tell your rabble they’re insane
Since you won’t win against McCain!
This crowd of jerks
Will blow the works.
We must win without Barack
So we can then lose in Iraq!
Stick to the plan.
‘Cause Hil’s our man.
CROWD:
[repeat O-bama nonsense]
BARACK SUPERSTAR:
Why waste your breath
Trying to make sense?
These are folks who faint
For politicians!
If CNN went dead the noise would still continue;
Each campus leftist crank
Would start to sing…
BARACK AND CROWD:
O-bama, hey, Bama,
Bama, Bama-O!
Bama-hey, Bama-oh-Bama!
We will beat Mc-Cain,
Though my name’s Hus-sein!
Bama-O, Bama-hey, Superstar!
[nifty xylophone ditty then exeunt]
I have to say I’m almost hoping for an Obama victory just because his name is so much more fun to play with than the other two. It would almost be worth seeing America be ruined even worse than Bush is doing, and Bush seems to be going full-throttle trying to destroy as much of it as he can before he leaves office…
I don’t know who any of these people are, in our government. Space aliens, I figure. Maybe Red Lectroids. They couldn’t possibly be actual American citizens. I think that movie “They Live!” probably had it right.
Sir Henry: “Ken Howard also said: “Never try to educate a bad mugâ€? EC”
Ok, so you kicked the shit out of your new 7.1 home entertainment centre because you couldn’t wire it up without “professional help”. No need to get toey about it. Expensive therapy but ultimately therapeutic, I’m sure. At least you didn’t “blow up” like Neddy Smith used to when “challenged” by an uppity towie.
Ken Howard also said that past form can be a good guide to present performance.
Kim, this is the sort of “popular vote” pulling power that Obama can muster. Pretty impressive really, a nine-fold increase….I don’t believe you heard me there…A NINE-FOLD INCREASE in punter turnout from last time. Augurs well for the sort of support he could mobilise come November.
“Party officials reported extremely high turnout at caucus sites across the state. In Laramie County, more than 1,500 came to cast votes at the caucus site, quickly filling the auditorium in downtown Cheyenne. Hundreds waited outside for hours until they could enter and vote. (In 2004, only 160 people showed up for the Laramie County caucus.) “
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/us/politics/09wyoming.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
“Mrs. Clinton campaigned here Friday, a day after her husband and daughter, signaling the stakes every contest holds in the fierce battle for the Democratic nomination.�
The A-Team came to muster support and were rejected bigtime.
This election is polarising into a Grassroots V. Beltway tussle. Let’s hope it’s resolved a little more amicably than when Mayor Daley unleashed Chicago’s finest during the Dem ’68 Convention.
Btw, for dyed-in-the-wool Sep election tragics, there’s a ton of action on this topic on offer over at The Bludger.
Mississippi, Tuesday.
It’s not you who should apologise Japerz.
What Rice and Lloyd-Webber have wrought is unforgiveable.
EC, Bush won Wyoming in 04 with 69% of the vote.
Graham Bell writes:
“Enough people realize that although Howard has been chucked out, many of the ignorant vicious over-paid consultants and public servants who were behind Howard’s policies still infest the place.”
Another “infestation” is the general community expectation of middle-class welfare hand-outs. Since the middle-class determines election outcomes, requiring both major parties to commit themselves to an absurd program of delivering $31 billion in tax cuts during rising inflation, why should it be a surprise that a Labor Government is just as likely, if not more likely, to cut grants to those most in need?
A change of Government alone doesn’t change the lopsidedness of Government spending and it doesn’t radically reform the Public Relations machinery of Government either.
This proposed cut in Carer’s Allowance already affects my Mother, who cares for my brother. It is also of interest to me as the health conditions of my partner means the prospect of me being a carer in future. Needless to say, this is the first time since the Federal Election that I have reason to be suspicious of the Rudd Government.
…From Justin
BearCave/Justin
I nearly was going to ignore your post. You have not read a thing about the Carers and Pensioner bonuses and the beat up,have you. Ah what the heck, no wonder Howard was in for such a long time.
Kim, from Obama’s perspective would the alternative make any sense? His is a message of freshness, new thinking and change. How would that go down in the electorate after serving eight years as Hillary’s vice-president?
I’d imagine, GregM, there might be some sort of “I’ll serve one term” deal as a sweetner. Anyway, I think they need to start thinking about McCain’s chances!
Kim: “EC, Bush won Wyoming in 04 with 69% of the vote.”
Sure, Kim, perhaps we’re at cross purposes here. Allow me to add “nationwide” to my sentence at 61 to clarify my point.
Augurs well for the sort of support he could mobilise come November {nationwide}, and his pulling power enters the realm of res ipsa loquitur.
Yes, but you’ve got to look at the demographics, EC. You don’t win in November by turning out the liberal college student/professional vote. And in those states where Hillary won and turnout was also much higher than usual, what does that signify?
“What I can say to carers and pensioners right across Australia - there is no way on God’s Earth that I intend to leave them in the lurch.” …. P.M.Rudd.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23342544-662,00.html
O Ye of little faith, in our Kevin, who art in Canberra and Bollocks be thy name.
Kim, how would a one-term deal, or even the very suggestion of one, work for either Hillary as president or for Obama as president? In the first case who would believe her, and in the second why would a 46 year old man exclude himself from the possibility of two terms. Wouldn’t it be completely inconsistent with his message of change?
The message of change, GregM, can surely be stretched in a number of directions because it’s inherently quite meaningless.
The king(queen)maker is John Edwards.
He has endorsed neither candidate yet.
His voice carries much weight in the Dem Party.
He is a voice of domestic governmental interventionism at a time of gathering economic turmoil in the US. He is thus a magnet for Americans who may not have voted during times of prosperity.
He is young enough to continue to have presidential aspirations of his own.
He is most likely to endorse the candidate less likely to seek two terms.
Clinton would appear to be that person.
Thus, a Clinton/Edwards ticket seems the likeliest possibility.
But the situation is extraordinarily dynamic. Many other outcomes are also possible.
Kim, demographics count, but delegates at the Dem. Convention in Colorado and Electoral College votes in Nov count more In non-compulsory voting, the more legit voters a candidate can pull to the polls in Nov., the better his or her chances of success.
“First Electoral Map Comparisons
SurveyUSA interviewed 30,000 registered voters — 600 in each of the 50 states — to test potential general election matchups and tally up the resulting electoral votes. Interestingly, Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton put together a very different collection of states.
Key findings:
Clinton beats McCain, 276 to 262.
Obama beats McCain, 280 to 258.
There are many caveats to this type of analysis before nominees are even known, but it’s fun nonetheless.”
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/03/06/first_electoral_map_comparisons.html
“And in those states where Hillary won and turnout was also much higher than usual, what does that signify?”
It signifies than they prefer HRC to BHO. Are you suggesting that they would stay at home or vote for McWarmonger if The Kid gets the nod from the Dems?
Please insert full-stop after “Electoral College votes in Nov count more”.
Clinton/Edwards is interesting to think about, Katz!
No, EC, I’m suggesting that it’s wrong to attribute turnout to Obama excitement alone. Before it became a two way race, it was still there. I’m just trying to point to the illogic in the Turnout = Obama = Democratic Victory equation.
Btw, I think Guy Rundle might be on to something on this electability thing:
Oops, here’s the Rundle link:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/hillary-strikes-back-so-democrats-are-in-a-bind/2008/03/08/1204780129477.html?page=2
Yes, Kim, neither of them are home and hosed yet for The Nomination in June. Both get record breaking turnouts in “their” demographics. However BHO is over a hundred delegates ahead in the race to the magic 2025.
This assertion from Rundle is rubbish:
“The whole messy contest between two people with virtually identical programs points up the flaws of the primary system as it stands.”
“virtually identical programs”?! Hunh?
“I have been against it in 2002, 2003, 2004, 5, 6, 7, 8 and I will bring this war to an end in 2009.”
– Sen. Barack Obama, quoted by The Politico, making clear his position on the Iraq War.”
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/03/07/quote_of_the_day.html
HRC is part of the Beltway Establishment, she voted for the invasion and occupation of Iraq with its concommitant civilian deaths maimings and misery, and its trillion dollar costs(thank you, Hillary, says the MIC) and has never said: “I was wrong to support it”.
That’s some difference, imo.
Su, you might be interested to know that the Medicare grant of $4,000 for dental services over two years which had been accessed by sufferers of chronic illness has also been abolished by the Labor Govt. Disappointing.
Latest Betfair Board Odds:
The Kid 11/9
Johnny Bomb-Bomb 15/8
The Warmonger 22/5
Su, you might be interested to know that the Medicare grant of $4,000 for dental services over two years which had been accessed by sufferers of chronic illness has also been abolished by the Labor Govt. Disappointing.
Casey, that is most disappointing. Please direct us all to the government source of your information.
“– Sen. Barack Obama, quoted by The Politico, making clear his position on the Iraq War.â€?
And also less clear EC…
“Obama said during the debate with Clinton that once he withdrew U.S. troops from Iraq, if al Qaeda were to form a base there, “then we will have to act in a way that secures the American homeland and our interests abroad.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080227/pl_nm/usa_politics_dc
A bit each way, you would have to say.
Prepare for direction:
http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/Dental+Care+Services
Yes, Joe, unfortunately its always a politician who gets elected.
No, I didn’t know that, Casey, and that is terrible news. I believe that the dental services must be under considerable pressure. I usually find them very helpful. My younger son has classic autism and very poor dental hygiene as a result, but after ringing the local dental health clinic we were rather curtly told that the service was for emergencies only. The last time he saw a dentist he had a abscessed tooth and three urgent fillings. I am not sure how much more pain he needs to be in now in order to access their services.
Muskiemp, you should consider that those who have an intimate and ongoing experience of the carer role, might not actually need your links to have some idea of the situation.
Since the head of Carers Australia is unlikely to be able to throw money at the labor party to attend “industry dinners”, nor the necessary status and clout to otherwise gain access and influence, whatever other means exist that may serve to cajole, shame, persuade, bully or otherwise convince the labor party to reconsider cuts to the income of those in the very lowest income range are fair game in my view.
The trouble with “true believers”, Joe2, is that while faith in the stated aims of a party are pretty laudable in my view, absolute faith in a political party serves neither the party or the faithful.
Crap I started an argument.
I don’t buy the argument that Kim is putting forward, essentially that delegates from the “right” states should count more than others. The rules of the primary season are pretty clear, the person with the most delegates wins.
The major talking point of the Clinton camp for the last week. That and a whole lot of guff about commander in chief thresholds. It’s pretty clear that they are trying to make an argument to the superdelegates to keep Clinton in the race.
Personally, I think Clinton should stay in the race for some time. The attacks she’s laying out are pretty much the same lines of attack that are open for McCain. Obama needs to demonstrate that he can negate these attacks.
Oh, that and these attacks are now backfiring on Clinton, as predicted by some of her supporters like Joshua Marshal at TPM.
“This is the first step in establishing the Government’s new Commonwealth Dental Health Program, which will be introduced from 1 July 2008. The Government is replacing the previous Government’s limited chronic care dental scheme with a scheme that works cooperatively with States to address public dental waiting lists and provides up to one million additional services.”
Well done Casey. The source you provided explains the nonsense you are pedaling.
Great that they are changing a crap system, with the urgency it needs, even before the budget comes down.
Monica Lewinski’s Ex-Boyfriend’s Wife For President!
http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/6013
(courtesy codger at 1290, The Bludger)
————————–
“Crap I started an argument.”
Mick, I though that’s part of the brief here, when we’re not merely discussing events ie.
Enjoyed the Josh Marshall link at TPM. Serves Brutessa right.
Figures you can bank on. Banks still do arithmetic, don’t they?
Let’s hope delegates and superdelgates do too. For the good of democracy.
Perhaps Obi wi