Tomorrow’s the big day.
A very comprehensive guide to the election has been provided by Antony Green.
Incidentally, I’ve just observed (but am not surprised) that the word “Liberal” appears to be almost entirely absent from the “Can-Do” website. It gets one mention now, but I’ve had a look at the site previously and it hasn’t been there at all. If, as appears likely, Campbell Newman romps it in for re-election to the Lord Mayoralty, it certainly won’t be because of any inspirational power the Liberal brand has. Those who aren’t Brisneylanders might be interested to know that whenever he’s been questioned about his status as the senior governing Liberal in Australia, he’s always disclaimed any responsibility for the party, generally dissed party politics and rabbited on about the best interests of the people of Brisbane being his sole concern. So it’ll be interesting to see if he wins big, and/or if the Libs take wards off Labor (a real chance), if it’s talked up as a partisan achievement. It probably will be, but there won’t be much basis for it.
It might be nice, though, if Newman lost in a backlash against the most annoying ads and campaign jingle ever.
Or because of his interesting promise to spend $400000 on erecting “Men’s Sheds” around town.
Elsewhere: More Queensland local government election news at Qld Decides and a lively comments thread at The Poll Bludger.
Cross-posted at PollieGraph.
Update: There’s an interesting story at Qld Decides which suggests polling may indicate that Labor is in trouble from the Greens’ Drew Hutton in the inner city southside ward of The Gabba.
Further update: Antony Green will be live blogging the count on Saturday night.
Another update: I missed this, because I was following Antony’s live blogging and checking the ECQ count on the web, but there’s a comprehensive post and a lively thread at The Poll Bludger.
Sunshine Coast Christian fundies and assorted homophobes dog-whistled at eleventh hour.
“Joe Natoli is standing by his decision to ask mayoral rival Bob Abbot if he wants to turn the Coast into a gay mecca, despite the question provoking an angry reaction from many residents.
“The reality is that my office has been inundated with people asking me if I support what Bob is doing in terms of Noosa chasing the pink dollar,” he told thedaily.com.au this afternoon.”
http://www.thedaily.com.au/news/2008/mar/14/natoli-pulls-out-noosa-gay-card/
And now for the good news. Joey “The Bigot” Natoli is gonna take a fall.
http://www.thedaily.com.au/news/2008/mar/13/poll-shows-natoli-facing-defeat/
If Abbot becomes S.C. mayor tomorrow after Natoli’s outburst, the joint will have come a long way in the last 10 years.
Such Enlightenment could even lead to daylight saving.
Totally agree. Can’t believe that this wins votes.
Yep, it’s weird.
EC, on my brief trip to Maroochydore last last year, I was leafing through the local rag and it struck me as being very right wing…
Update: Antony Green will be live blogging the count on Saturday night.
In Antony Green’s commentary, Concrete Campbell received 128 words and Greg Rowell received 154 words – which clearly indicates the ABC’s left-wing bias.
84 out of Rowell’s word count were all about cricket – which clearly indicates the ABC’s Donald Bradman bias.
The Greens’ Jo Bragg received 38 words – which indicates the ABC’s couldn’t-care-less-about-anybody-but-the-big-two bias.
The ‘others’ received 17, 18 and 25 words respectively, 43 of which were about rock music – which indicates a JJJ bias.
Which also begs the question: Why do so many rock musicians want to be Lord Mayor of Brisbane? Perhaps concrete gives off good acoustics.
This just in: I’m going to romp home in Marchant Ward.
Hope you survived the day on the how to vote detail, Sam! I appreciated the free pikelets (with jam and cream!) at the Merthyr Road Uniting Church hall!
It’s all happening at Antony Green’s joint!
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/
Some other races to watch - the Gold Coast where the Libs are making a run for the first time, Sunshine Coast as EC mentions, and Toowoomba where anti-recycled water campaigner Snow Manners is running.
I am an Ipswichian, and I must say that voting here in division 8 was difficult.;) Our incumbent Charlie Pissale was returned unopposed and as Ipswich is only getting better and better I think Paul Pissale will romp it home.
One for EC: Joe Natoli is fucked.
And Antony calls it - Campbell is back.
Back big time. Looks like the polling which had him with a primary just south of 60% was spot on. If Labor lose control of Council, they’ll deserve the thrashing - it should have been possible to mount a serious tilt at Newman - what’s “Can Do” actually done except start work on a pointless tunnel? Where’s the vision for the city? But instead we’ve had a Mayoral campaign that conceded defeat more or less before it got underway, and Labor is paying the price.
Campby will have to stop blathering now and perform.
Particularly on transport - most notably public transport. Or be booted next time. And maybe there will even be Green councillors next time. I hope so.
I have to say I agree with the idea that for many, it wasn’t so ‘important’ to maintain Labor’s traditional dominance in Brisbane, given Labor’s position in the wider state of play. It certainly influenced the way I voted, along with being faced with the same old slackarse Labor rep in East Brisbane in my ‘new’ ward of Holland Park. Three streets away and I’d have been in The Gabba. Could have made a difference, but maybe not.
In about the middle of last year I got a call from someone surveying opinions of the performance of ‘council’. As the questionig continued, I got the impression it was more about the mayor. I whinged bitterly about how public transport had degenerated aftr slowly improving under Soorley (even ol Salary Anne had boosted it a bit). At the time, the surveyor seemed surprised by my response.
There might be something in that, Anita.
Newman’s over 60% on the primary now.
Looking at the wards where the Greens fancied their chances, it looks like Drew Hutton is doing best with almost 26% of the vote - there might be a slim possibility that he could still pull ahead of the Libs when some of the big West Endy booths report, but I don’t think it’s that likely.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/BrisbaneCity/results/councillor/booth21.html
Anne Boccabella is on around 20% in Central, where the Libs are currently leading - which suggests she has no chance as Hinchliffe will presumably close the gap. In Toowong, the Greens are polling better - only 9 votes behind Labor, but the Liberal Matic is over 50% at this stage.
The count for all the wards can be found here:
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/BrisbaneCity/results/councillor/summary.html
Yes, Saigon and Mark, it’s so sweet to see Joey “The Bigot” Natoli electorally horse-whipped by Big Bob Abbot. 72/28 and Bob is ahead in all of the 12 divisions. Coasters may vote mostly “right wing” in State and Fed. elections, but this is a huge mayoral result for locals of a socially progressive and greenish persuasion and a big “hop back into your boxes” for the fundies and bigots.
You little bloody beauty!!
My Minister for War and I were prepared to move, rather than see the former Noosa Shire developmentally, commercially and “attitudinally” raped in slomo before our eyes if Natoli were elected mayor of the amalgamated SCRC ahead of Abbot.
Looks like we’ll be able to share and live in a truly beautiful neck of the woods, “The Shire”, without too much Orc interference for a bit longer yet.
A wonderful evening to you all.
More so in your neck of the woods than ours, EC, but I’m very glad of the result up the Sunny Coast!
In The Gabba, Drew Hutton has now dropped back to 21.59% of the vote with the addition of the Kangaroo Point booth with its big Liberal vote.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/BrisbaneCity/results/councillor/district21.html
The Milton Dick will lose Richlands crowd look to be wrong, though those who were arguing there would be a swing against him might be onto something. Still early days though with the big booths in Inala, Darra and Richlands yet to come him.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/BrisbaneCity/results/councillor/booth19.html
On the earlier Poll Bludger scepticism about a big disparity between the Mayoral and the Ward vote, the ABC has the swing to Newman at 13.5% and the swing against Labor in the wards at -5.8%.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/brisbane/2008/
Greens are 1 vote behind Labor in Toowong.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/BrisbaneCity/results/councillor/district23.html
The mail I had was this was the ward where they had the best chance.
But the potential for their winning was on a three way split, and it looks like Newman’s coattails have helped the Liberal.
Be interesting to see, though, where the Greens vote ends up being biggest. I think what I was saying a few weeks ago - The Gabba, Toowong, Central in that order is still looking like the best bet.
And to answer Antony Green’s question, it looks like Peter Matic was a better candidate than the do nothing long term incumbent Judy Magub - who was a complete waste of space when I was living in that part of town from 99-02.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/03/toowong-ward.html#more
Interesting to look at the booth breakdown in some of the inner city wards. In Central, it looks like David Hinchliffe is prone to Newman’s coat tails like everyone else but I also think we’re also seeing the results of some demographic change in some of these inner urban wards - with gentrification proceeding apace. If you look at the Kangaroo Point booth in The Gabba, it’s a very nice one for the Libs now - an area that’s almost all yuppie riverside apts where once were workers’ cottages not all that many decades ago!
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/BrisbaneCity/results/councillor/booth21.html
It would be difficult, of course, to separate this out in the short term, but I know some Labor folks who think the trends in some parts of inner city Brisbane are against them.
Looking again at the wards were the Greens were contending, they’ve been stuffed by the swing to the Libs - in all three the Libs are well in front on primaries, leaving the Greens trailing Labor candidates who’ll be elected on their preferences in The Gabba and Central, and coming a slim third place behind Labor in the more traditionally Liberal area of Toowong.
Interesting to note that one of only two wards with a swing to the ALP (the other being Pullenvale) is Morningside, where it’s almost exactly the opposite of the city wide swing to the Libs in the ward count. It’s smack in the middle of Kevin territory with a hard working local councillor!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/brisbane/2008/guide/morn.htm
My local Councillor, David Hinchliffe, has been run very close indeed by the Libs. It’ll be interesting to see if he wants to retain the Labor leadership, and/or if he comes under pressure to relinquish it:
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/BrisbaneCity/results/councillor/district2.html
On the ABC’s figures, there was an 8% swing to the Libs, with the city wide average being 5.5.
“Morningside, where it’s almost exactly the opposite of the city wide swing to the Libs in the ward count. It’s smack in the middle of Kevin territory with a hard working local councillor!”
Whereas the do-nothing East Brisbane cum Holland Park councillor, also in Kev’s seat of Griffith, has copped a big swing against her. Despite her rather transparent efforts in the last week to associate herself with Big Kev. Thanks to our MP’s workaholicism, us Branch Kevinians have an expectation of high performance from our elected representatives.
Evidently!
I like “branch Kevinians”!
Going back to the swings to Labor, looks like Pullenvale wasn’t a final number. The other swing to Labor turns out to be in Wynnum-Manly where Liberal Ross Vasta was trying to enter Council after being kicked out by the forces of Kevin07 from the federal seat of Bonner last year.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/brisbane/2008/guide/wynn.htm
Campbell Newman won the Mayoral vote in every ward bar two - Richlands and The Gabba.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/BrisbaneCity/results/Mayoral/summary.html#5
Just had an update from one of my FB friends whose mum is a Labor Councillor - he thinks the ALP should have liberated themselves from Newman’s vice like grip two years ago and left their jobs in Civic Cabinet and been a proper Opposition. Makes a lot of sense.
I’m not sure if people outside Brisbane realise we had the very weird situation with the ALP having a majority not just on Council, but in Civic Cabinet. Because Council is so big, effectively the Chairs of Council Committees function like Ministers.
At least the lines will be drawn clearly now with Labor in opposition. Hopefully they can reinvigorate themselves and come up with some “fresh thinking”!
Hi Mark,
This is a post I put up on PB earlier. I’m interested in your opinion of my critique.
Remember the old saying, “be careful what you wish for”.
If the Libs get up with a bare majority in Brisbane City Council, then “Can-Do” may well live to regret it and feel like his next 4 years are being spent in Purgatory!
At least with a majority Cabinet consisting of experienced Labor Councillors, he was able to get most of his program through without much difficulty.
If Can-Do now has to appoint an inexperienced Cabinet with the certainty of many of them belonging to differing factions, then he may well find that the previous arrangement was a piece of cake once the Lib Factional Warlords and their range of vested interests start to take over the running of the Council.
Cheers, Scorpio.
The electors in the various Wards may also come to regret their decision to give the Libs a go. This mob will not be running things for the benefit of ordinary citizens. They will be running it for the benefit of the big end of town.
What will be interesting is now the Libs have a majority on Council, if they start acting like Liberals. Early in Newman’s term, he commissioned a consultants’ report which recommended the privatisation of everything and sweeping staff cuts (the BCC employs over 7000 people). He ran away from it.
There’s a natural Labor majority in Brisbane, but Labor dropped the ball badly. They ran a pathetic campaign. Big swing against Milton Dick - former state secretary - in what used to be yellow dog ALP territory in Richlands. But then the last few state and federal campaigns have effectively been outsourced to Hawker Britton!
Labor more or less conceded the Mayoralty, and their co-existence with the Libs in the Civic Cabinet meant that they couldn’t define an alternative agenda to Newman’s, having signed off on a lot of what he wanted.
It shouldn’t have been impossible to beat or at least put a dent in Newman’s lead.
Scorpio, we crossed comments, but I’m thinking along the same lines! In effect, the Libs and ALP were development as usual party, with a fair bit of restraint from having Labor in the show. If it’s now crazy roads and tunnels everywhere and mega development, then I think you’re spot on - he’ll regret having got what he wanted. The lines of responsibility are also clear, and there’s every chance the Libs (not exactly famous in Qld for their smarts) will stuff up badly.
Another update: I missed this, because I was following Antony’s live blogging and checking the ECQ count on the web, but there’s a comprehensive post and a lively thread at The Poll Bludger.
I popped out for a friend’s birthday dinner, so I didn’t get to the results until now. But I want to get something off my chest - the miracle of Australian elections. In other parts of the world, you need riots to get the results. In
Americasome places, you need lawyers. In Australia, you just hit the F5 key… over and over again.God bless Antony Green and the ECQ.
Oh, the Courier-Mail finally get around to covering the campaign after it’s over!
The performance of the MSM in reporting what was an important election has been pathetic. Even if it was an uninspiring campaign, they should be covering it.
And what’s this?
Whatevs, Courier-Mail journo.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23376890-952,00.html
Hinchliffe is in trouble because of a big swing to his Liberal opponent, Vicki Howard!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/brisbane/2008/guide/cent.htm
Note the primaries. Greens up 0.9% on last time. Liberals up 6.7%. Labor down 7.3%.
And a Socialist Alliance candidate with 1.9% - where there was no similar candidate last time.
Doesn’t look to me like Hinchliffe lost votes to the Greens, but to the Libs.
Amen to that, Down and Out.
But - as I’m saying - where’s the media? I was thinking of going to an election night party tonight but I figured it’d be less depressing to sit in front of the computer with a six-pack! And it would have been impossible to follow the count except via the net.
I’m five beers down, so I won’t look for the link - but I thoroughly agree with what Jason Wilson said on an earlier post about the Qld local gov’t elections - have the media just decided it’s too hard to cover local elections? Too boring? Pffft to that. Elections matter.
I had the idea at about 4pm, when I caught up with some friends in West End for a drink and some tapas after voting that we should have approached 4zzz to do some radio coverage of the count. Wish I’d thought of it sooner - because it would have been the only non-net live coverage of the elections!
For those with memories of Howard’s attempted wedges last year, it’s also interesting to observe that the fast-tracking of the Council amalgamations which were supposedly going to destroy Rudd in Qld was to fit in with the fixed term timetable for today’s elections. I suspect no one remembers the results of any of the plebiscites Howard legislated for, or even if they ever happened.
Beattie was right to hold his nerve!
Post Mortem time
Courier Mail coverage woeful. Surprise, surprise.
Labor ‘campaign’ - are you ‘avin’ a larf?
Newman’s bluff and blather goes unchallenged.
Wonder if Clem Jones is spinning in his grave.
Rather off topic, but Clem Jones was a serious player in the republic referendum, for the direct election of a president. I imagine his experience as mayor of Brisbane, firstly as a ward councillor and majority leader and later as a city-wide mayoral candidate was part of that. Joh made the vote for mayor separate in an attempt to get rid of Jones.
…and as part of the delusion that the Nats could win Brisbane!
Great result in Richlands. Mark… I am dissapointed you didn’t take that bet with me. Biggest swing of any Ward… and had it not been for the loss of Forest Lake things would have been different.
The Libs might have won in Brisbane, but apparently, according to Insiders they were demolished on the Gold Coast.
From a Socialist Alliance perspective, every election they stand in, local, state or federal the party is slowling increasing its vote. Jusat like the Greens decades ago.
Milton will be embarrassed for sure, julia!
Graham Young on why Campbell’s win shouldn’t give the Libs any comfort:
http://qlddecides.com/Latest/Newman-s-victory-one-for-Campbell.html
There are no safe seats for the ALP at the moment although you’d be hard pressed to get a swing against them at the next election. My prediction? Newman will bankrupt the city trying to get these tunnels up and running and the ALP will sweep back into power when everyone’s rates have gone up far beyond inflation. Brisbane residents are going to feel the pinch by 2012.
The ALP are going to have to capture that anger and turn it into a desire for an alternative. What they’ve been offering recently is accquiescence. The ALP need to outline a strong agenda that will be build a sustainable Brisbane without breaking the bank.
That’s true, Sam, but don’t discount Anna stripping some power away from the BCC if Newman goes really nuts.
I’ve got additional things to say here.
“Newman will bankrupt the city trying to get these tunnels up and running and the ALP will sweep back into power when everyone’s rates have gone up far beyond inflation.”
BCC rates already have been- for years!
They’re twice what you pay in Melbourne. Now admittedly, the city-state provides some services left to State govt here, but still, its a good 50% higher.
The problem is the BCC pegged rates at a set fraction of property value - which once had a ‘progressive taxtion’ function (which I support), but since the boom just means everybody is getting ripped off left right and centre.
Here’s wacky idea BCC - why dont you peg it to the cost of providing council services, CPI style?
Peoples rates more than doubled under the % of value formula, in a time period in which when the actual costs of providing the services rose more no more than 15%.
Rip off!
Totally off topic: You learn something new every day…