Newspoll’s out, and it’s not good news for the compassionate conservatives. Labor on 59-41 2PP, and Rudd leading Nelson by 73-9. Shanahan spin here and as always, a vigorous discussion at The Poll Bludger.
A few comments:
(1) It’s interesting that 18% of respondents are uncommitted in the better PM stakes. That might be a measure of the level of political apathy and disengagement.
(2) Again, as always, the commentariat’s reflex is that the Budget will be some sort of tipping point. But we might be seeing what we saw last year - Rudd’s destiny is in his own hands. I have a feeling, though, that Nelson might stick with the “compassion” and “listening” things longer than expected, though I also think the centre of political attention is likely to turn to climate change from economics after the budget, particularly if interest rates remain steady.
(3) There, it’s interesting that The Greens have been above 10% in every poll since the election. There was a view around last year that they’d been marginalised because climate change had hit the mainstream. I doubt that’s going to continue to be true, if it ever was. As Peter Martin indicates, key decisions are already been made, largely beneath the press radar (quelle surprise!)
Within weeks we will know whether either Garnaut or the existing polluters has won. The effects will be with us for decades to come.
It seems to me that The Greens will be the only plausible source of “alternative policy views”, as they say in Question Time, to whatever comes out of the policy mix now that Labor faces translating rhetoric into action.
On these figures, even the mad right of the Liberal party must be wondering whether they should have made that dangerous leftwinger Malcolm Turnbull, their leader. And of course, with the Libs its back to Republicans v. Monarchists. A pretty good wedge on Red Kev’s part, I’d say. If Bumbles had followed Malcolm’s republican line the Libs would have sighed, We might as well have Turnbull after all.
And on climate change, sorry to be a cynic, but of course the existing polluters will win. Its always been thus, and a few melting icebergs, widespread droughts and unusual hurricanes won’t change it.
Actually, I was pleasantly surprised at the shortage of spin in Shamaham’s outing.
“doing the Liberal Party such irreparable harm”
“it’s not enough to say that Nelson didn’t get any worse: he can’t get any worse.”
“Rudd’s strength has been his grasp on foreign affairs and his world trip has sent his stocks back up, while Nelson’s attempts to suggest he was behaving in an unbecoming way have failed, perhaps even backfired.”
Credit where due, he seems to have gotten off the crack for long enough to write this piece.
The moves against Nelson have begun. Piers Ackerman has been duly briefed (see his column yesterday).
Nelson is finished. But that doesn’t mean that Turnbull will replace him. Peter Costello evidently hasn’t been deluged with job offers from the corporate world and it wouldn’t surprise to see him put his hand up for the leadership.
Spiros wrote:
Who’d want to work with Australia’s biggest sook? I think it’d be hilarious if the liberal party, in desperation about not wasting their Turnbull, push Costello up front again. If he got 3% public approval I’d be surprised. There was nothing funnier last year than seeing the Sky News polls on potential prime ministers and seeing Costello hovering around the 10% approval mark ON SKY NEWS. The general populace regard him in the same fashion they do bunions.
David Rubie,
What you say about Costello is spot on, but rumours seem to have been circulating that imply there might be a recall of Costello to the leadership, though nothing you can really put your finger on. Perhaps he’s let it be known he wished he hadn’t spat the dummy. Or maybe he really, really wants to bury Howard out of revenge. Or maybe the Libs have polling that tell them they’ll go down like the Titanic if he and Downer go to by-elections. I don’t know. But my feelingt is we might yet see him attempt a resurgence.
The high level of undecideds might be due to the fact that both PM and Opposition Leader are relatively new to their respective jobs. So respondants may be taking a “wait and see” approach. That’s quite possibly the opposite of apathy.
As for (3), for some reason the Greens’ opinion poll figures are always higher than their electoral vote. Why is this so?
I want Turnball to take it on. After he fucks up and loses it, and an election, they’ll really be toast for a while.
Paul Burns wrote:
I wonder what a Costello resurgence looks like? My guess is, like that annoying kid in the street where you grew up who sulked off with his toys when he didn’t like the rules, he’ll turn up two days later at your gate, silent, toy tucked under arm, uncertain about whether to push through the gate and waiting for an invitation. No cordial for you, Costello. Nobody would be stupid enough to make him party leader, would they?
Costello isn’t holding back because the Liberal Party might lose Higgins in a by-election. The problem is that if he’s going to go with dignity, it has to be something high powered. But why would be offered a serious job in the corporate sector? What he did for 11 years was learn the brief his Treasury public servants placed under his nose and kick heads in Parliament. These aren’t skills that are very useful in the private sector. Did he show any initiative or leadership on any major policy issue the whole time he was Treasurer? No. Could he promise a new employer that he could open doors in Canberra for them? Hardly.
Costello’s problem is that he and his supporters talked up how employable he was immediately after election. As each day passes, the likelihood of him going anywhere diminishes.
Meanwhile, Nelson is floundering is Turnbull retains the enmity of the Right. Costello could easily, effortlessly, turn himself into a champion of the Right and go after the leadership.
Perhaps the 18% undecided are Liberals who can’t bring themselves to admit that they prefer Rudd to Nelson?
McKenzie - spot on I’d say.
After spending many years at the law, I would like to profess that I don’t really think it matters whose in power … Nelson or Rudd. Since shortly after federation (with the demise of the protectionist and free trade groupings) the parliament quickly ossified into two groups the United Australian Party/Country Party which obviously became the Liberal-National coalition and the Labor Party. Added to the compulsory preferential voting system, federal funding of parties based on their “popular” vote we are left with a particularly disinterested chamber. Why don’t they just join together and call themselves ‘Laberial’, with the slogan “Just vote for us you know you have too”. The most lethal aspect laberialsim is that where offered a take it or leave it view of our democracy, we pontificate about champions of the right or left within the Laberial parliament when perhaps in the case of right wingers like Rudd (remember the Queensland public service!)and Costello such arguments have become spurious. I believe the time has come to reinvigorate our democracy and if we have to borrow examples of voting from Germany, Sweden or New Zealand then we should and must do so. I’m (along with hundreds of thousands of other Australians) sick of being forced to vote (under pain of being fined) for the Laberial Party with it’s century old grip on power, let us reinvigorate our democracy and make our peoples chamber one of vast intellect and debate instead of towing the old Laberial party line.
Goodness ! I looked up this site to look at Springborg’s assimilation because I like Star Trek and thought it was funny (See: page 23 Courier Mail today) Mr Petrie I believe makes a valuable point more than that it reflects not a voice in the wildness
but the sheer contempt the majority of my friends have towards the two major political parties. Why should I be forced to vote preferentially i.e 4 or 5 on the ticket for these two groupings who the majority of people simply can’t stand. Oh yeah, on that note I thought Beattie was tired and worn out, obviously a $ 300 000 trowel from the Queensland Laberial kick-back party as trade commissioner in California must have changed his mind.
Never was a truer thing said. I hate the morally bankrupt wankers cynicism and the this is as good as it gets attitude. F**K the Laberials.
Ive aroused a hornet’s I see ! Don’t get too upset Simon I don’t foresee the Laberials being in any mood to remove their entrenched hold over our democracy, why would they remove a monopoly of governance which leave them awash with money.
What voting system would you prefer John?
Oh hello ! The most important thing must be debate in the chamber. The British Parliamentary system itself was not designed nor did it evolve until recently into the apparatus for a two party state, this becoming the case particularly in Australia.
New Zealand proportional voting system lets Nationals, Greens, Maori, independents and Labor form coalitions and debate. On that note nothing is perfect, but it worth considering.
John Petrie is right about the woeful state of democracy and voting rights in this country. Europe has a number of excellent examples which put Australia to shame. You often hear people say “there all the same, none of them give a f**K”. That’s because they actually are all the same - hence the awesome name Mr Petrie has coined Laberial. It’s so sick it’s actually funny. “Vote Laberial 2 names really just one party.
What about Rudd with Nelson as deputy !
The parliamentary system wasn’t designed to accomodate the representatives of working people, either, or women.
Or sockpuppets.
/suspicious
John/Simon/Stephanie, having noted that all these comments agreeing with each other come from one IP address, and thus there’s a strong likelihood that they’re written by the same person, I’d suggest you consult our comments policy (link above the comments box) on using sock puppets. You’re most welcome to participate in this forum, but you’re not encouraged to proliferate indenties to agree with yourself!
Also, John/Simon/Stephanie, if any of you wants to be taken for a lawyer you might want to brush up on your spelling, grammar and punctuation.
Be nice now FDB - that’s what 10 years of running down public education buys us. I’d make puppets from my socks, but I’d have to wash ‘em first.
Following this interview where Nelson has let the cat out of the bag and adopted the Glen Milne blueprint for Liberal resurgence it is clear that Newscorp should not even be given the opportunity to participate in the budget lockup this year.
With Nelson confident that the Milne advice of bashing the budget on the basis of grocery prices, petrol prices and interest rates, Newscorp’s place in the budget process including the budget lockup should be offered to bloggers and media that hasn’t been part of the budget process in recent years.
QUESTION:
Your preferred Prime Minister rating has slipped back to nine per cent. What do you put that down to?
DR NELSON:
Well I just leave it to the commentators to comment on the polls. We’re just over four months from the election last year, I’m very much focused on what’s concerning everyday Australians, holding the Government to account on a number of things that it’s already not delivering on in a climate where interest rates, groceries and petrol are all on the up.
At this stage at the front of my mind is the concerns of everyday Australians. Can you feed, clothe and house your children? Can you put petrol in your car? And can you afford your groceries? And I think Australia at the moment has made the decision that it did last year and I’m just getting on with the job.
QUESTION:
You want to Prime Minister, how are you going to turn that polling around?
DR NELSON:
You watch.
QUESTION:
You’ve been in a listening tour for the past couple of weeks and your visit to Launceston is part of that but do today’s opinion polls show voters aren’t listening to you?
DR NELSON:
It’s just over four months since there was an election last year and most Australians having chosen a new government expect the government to get on with it. My focus is very much on standing up for the interests and ideas and aspirations of everyday Australians and in those four months there has been at least two official interest rate rises, increases in petrol and grocery prices.
Australians are funding it much more challenging in day to day life and my objective is to hold the Government to account, to develop alternative policies for Australia which are inspiring and attractive. We’ve already commenced that process and I heard some commentary from the chief executive of Newspoll which I thought was pretty much on the money.
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/news/detail/20080408_NelsonDoorstopLauncestonJohnButtonOlympictorchrelay.php