Newspoll tomorrow has Brendan Nelson up one point to 10% as opposed to Kevin Rudd’s 71% (down two points) on the preferred PM question. Within the MoE, Dennis. Labor’s up two on the 2PP to 61-39.
Dennis Shanahan actually spoke some sense recently:
So, after taking all this pain, Nelson isn’t about to hand over to a cleanskin who can reap the benefits, if there are any. He will have to be thrown out of office, and anyone looking forward to a seamless transition will be left waiting as long as Costello waited for John Howard to hand over.
So Nelson’s trump card is that the leadership will have to be wrested from his cold dead hands etc. If there’s one thing worse than looking to a leader to save you, it’s a messy fight over who gets to be the Messiah.
It may not be the common wisdom but it’s certainly possible Nelson will still be Liberal leader after July, because more Liberals may come to realise they have to stop fighting over an empty prize, just as they did for the last year of government, and face Rudd, the real problem, with new policies.
Of course, the “new policies” thing raises all sorts of other questions which will be easier for the Libs to pose than to answer. With the 2020 summit working – in effect – to expand the centre ground by a football field or two – it’ll be difficult for the Libs to avoid me-tooism and their own wishlist of unfunded motherhood statements but it would be disastrous for them to tack hard to the right. Most likely result is internal brawling, I should think.
2020 also puts a premium on the media starting to cover politics as if it really mattered – because it expands the policy debate and focuses on what matters to people in terms of long term solutions to real problems that affect folks. The meejah may or may not join the Libs in the marginalised corner. They can’t really write stories about the horse race, I guess, since there is none – it’s more like an old nag running a length behind four other runners in a country race meeting at 200-1 on. So they’ve got to do yet another poll (out tomorrow) on preferred Liberal leaders. Yawn.
Look up any psychology textbook for the entry on “mid-life crisis”.
That photo is there.
My emphasis.
Wouldn’t it be more accurately described as a poisoned chalce?
Sorry, I believe the word is chalice.
To be fair, you should point that photo of Brendan was taken two years ago when he was doing a photo op as Defence Minister for some ADF bike safety awareness campaign. (Why yes, even Coalition pollies have been known to do the odd symbolic publicity stunt from time to time.)
“Sorry, I believe the word is chalice.”
Clearly you’ve never eaten raw chalce with the venom glands removed by highly-trained plumbers.
And Nelson is a long-time motorcyclist, from back in the days in the AMA.
It\s one of his redeemding features…
Seriously, the focus on long-term planning is great, tactically, for Labor, as well as being a mostly good idea.
While the last years of the Howard government were an extreme example, the left of politics is always going to be better at grand plans for the future, in large part because we believe in the concept.
While the right’s philosophical case for not liking central, overly detailed long-term planning is not entirely meritless (for instance, it’s one I strongly support whenever people start proposing mandating specific technological measures to reduce greenhouse emissions), it’s a difficult political case to make.
Is the photo of Brendan riding pillion, at an event to promote road safety, with a driver who was pinged for drink driving not long afterwards a metaphor for his Liberal Party leadership on the sufferance of the party’s right wing?
I thought Dolly’s hissy fit at the ACM dinner yesterday was much more instructive. Almost everything the Libs did in the past eleven years is being undone and thry know it. Trouble is, its going to take a bit more than a 20/20 Summit to repair the ravages of the Howard years.( Though I did comr to really love that Summit despiter much initial cynicism and skepticism).
The poll on preferred party leader might start some ructions, though. I want Bumbles to stay. At the risk of the futrure proving me wrong, he’s a loser. The 2 point improvement was for ATTENDING the Summit, I suppose?
It’s out.
Coalition voters prefer…. Costello!!!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23578256-601,00.html
Mark – that is priceless.
But he’ll be busy writing his memoirs:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/04/22/the-costello-diaries/
“Coalition voters prefer…. Costello!!!”
It will be interesting to see if they still love him once his much awaited book of memoirs comes out. He has just signed the deal. One wit on talk back radio suggested the title should be “Number Twos”.
I imagine Nelson’s strategy in taking up the poison chalice straight afer the election is to ‘lose’ the leadership after a year or so, become a well known face, and attempt a comeback 12 months before the election after next.
Ah, Mug Punter, that’s a risky tactic isn’t it? Have you put money on it? Dolly gave up the Leadership never to return…. the only Liberal returnees I can recall are Andrew Peacock and John Howard…. and perhaps Bob Menzies back in the 40’s?
Hmmmmm, it’s looking quite a good tactic if past practice is a guide…
But then on the Labor side, Kim Beazley never looked good.
Back to Brendan “Nowhere Man” Nelson and the motorcycle above – who’s the rider? Looks like a hottie!
..and riding a Ducati… Nice taste.
The rider is rock musician Sarah McLeod, whose penchant for noise-making machinery extends to a Gibson SG guitar through a Marshall amp.
Nabs, I must admit to a preference for cooked chalce, with or without venom glands. Can I keep the plumber on standby, there’s never one when you need him/her?