Graph reproduced from Possum’s post.
Possum Comitatus has calculated what he thinks is the Liberal base vote - the number of voters who’ve never voted for Labor over the Coalition at any level of government, basing his estimates on the lowest the Tory vote has fallen in elections over the last decade.
Brendan Nelson is leading a party that is receiving a national vote share lower than all of the State Opposition annihilations of late put together. It makes the polling bleakness of early 2001, and that of March/April 2007 look like a golden age of popularity by comparison.
If that’s not bad enough, if we look at the way those State annihilations of the Opposition played out in practice, a sort of electoral hysteresis was operating. State ALP governments eroded the State Coalition vote to the point where the Coalition base started contracting, leading to an almost natural, lower long-term level of Coalition electoral support as a result - a level of support from which the State Oppositions have found it almost impossible to recover from, consigning themselves to a generation of political failure.
If you lose your base, you lose your political viability.
In a week when Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull’s performance is going to be as much on the line as Wayne Swan and Kevin Rudd’s, it’s interesting to consider this in tandem with what Mark had to say last week:
Rather than expecting the budget to bring things back to a “normal” level of “contestability” between the two parties, I think we’re much more likely to see something characteristic of the recent dynamic in state politics - an initial Labor win as people take the plunge with some reservations, converted quickly into a handsome lead, which will most likely lead to a bigger win at the end of the first term. State politics has largely been de-ideologised, and I think Rudd is trying to do something similar with federal politics. That’s his plan, anyway. It may not work. But I think most of the analysis that’s currently around misses some fundamental points.
At the moment, the Libs have probably lost more of the “Howard battlers” than defected to Rudd in last year’s election. How does their economic populism message play out in this context? In particular, how does it play out when their “no budget cutting” message can easily be turned back on them as representing a defence of welfare for the well off and opposition to tax hikes on the rich? Do they end up with the irredeemably socially conservative and the irredentist small business crew combined with some of the top end of town? When that’s your base, how do you balance trying to keep them in your tent, and trying to attract others?
It’s an unenviable position.
You can see why Kevin Rudd is trying to aid and abet the shrinkage of the Libs’ vote. It has the potential to leave them in the wilderness for a very long time indeed.
If Posse’s analysis of the Libs in fact turning into a party of business that has no appeal to the rest of the electorate, that’s more or less what happened to the United Australia Party in the 1940s. And one of Menzies’ motives for founding the Liberal Party. I don’t know if the Lib/Pineapple Party in Queensland is the solution or whether it will spread to other states. I suspect underneath it all there’s probably too much bad blood between the Libs and the Nats- recall the stink about one of the McGaurin brothers switching to the Libs last year? And even the Nats must be able to see such an amalgamation will lead to an influx of Country Independents, not necessarily of the Right.
So will we see a new Centre right party of the Right (as opposed to the ALP on the so-called left). And who will the new Menzies be? Bumbles? Turnbull?
Or Bindi Irwin? (If it takes that long?)
The difference in the past was that the ALP was much further to the left when the UAP imploded. Today it may not be so easy to win those voters back once they get accustomed to voting Labor.
The Liberals have always regarded the de-ideologisation of state politics as a relief, because they have generally been uncomfortable with ideology and all that icky intellectual stuff (except for anti-communism, which was always undermined by commercial relationships with the USSR). Sooner or later they’ll wake up to the idea that you sometimes have to change the debate if you want to win it. To change the debate you have to examine the issues within it; and oh, look, no point getting too pointy-headed about this, can you just do me a press release about it or something?
There are several other ways in which a Liberal Party can go “low”.
In Victoria this morning we have choked on our Weeties at the news that Ted Baillieu is having to deal with (not just) “rats in the ranks”, but verily “rats at HQ”.
[link]
Or M’sieur, if treachery is not to your taste, ‘ow about a wafer-thin piece of anti-semitisim?
[link]
Isn’t anti-Semitism seem as intrinsically fascist?
Just askin’.
Oh, this is just getting better and better. I’m off to make more popcorn
The truly ridiculous bit about this, apart from the obvious racism and stupidity, is that the Libs specifically pre-selected a Jewish candidate because it’s an electorate with a high Jewish population. Then the poor guy gets abused for being Jewish! How stupid are these people.
Baillieu doesn’t seem to be a bad sort of guy, but these clowns he has no hope.
Yeah the thing is the wankers ran the shit-sheet blog from their computers inside Lib HQ which is how they were caught. Methinks the Libs might want to take a look at the single digit IQs of their staff for their malaise and stop blaming Red Ted.
Hmmm…kinda funny that the LN/P’s primary vote tends to reach temporal peaks - late 2001, late 2004 and late 2007 - above the secular trend around about election time, that being “the only poll that matters”.
But then, if you had been following my psephological analysis you would know that inter-election polling tends to underestimate the LN/Ps vote. Sort of politically correct “halo effect” voters put on to pollsters when it doesnt really matter.
I predict that the LN/P will bounce back fairly sharply once Rudd encounters choppy waters, either by circumstance through recession or choice by taking on a powerful political interest.
There does not seem much likelihood of the latter given Rudd’s centrist Howard-lite policy positions. So the LN/P will have to hanker after the bad old days, which do not appear to be coming back with a vengenance.
So I give them at least one, probably two, more elections in the political wildnerness.
…you’d be mad as a hatter?
Yep, its been a fun week for Tory Kamikaze spotting, here in Melbs.
Incidentally, did anyone else see the pic of the offending apparatchiks?
Why do the young turks at LIB HQs always look like ferrets?
Puzzled, of Keating Towers.
11 Bill Posters May 12th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
…
Bill Posters I bet you $100, to be held in escrow by LP, that my last two federal election calls were closer to the mark than those published by any one who has posted blogs on this site.
I am offering a low bet out of pity towards your lame excuse for a riposte.
[long awkward silence whilst BP rues the folly of his ways.]
12 Lefty E May 12th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Things arent too bad for the Tories when the leader of the Socialists is me-tooing the lowest Tory in cultural policy, indigenous intervention, border protection, assylum seeker rejection, war on drugs etc etc
ANd state governments, unless they happen to be privatising, are ideologically irrelevant. So that would not seem to be a problem for any sincere Tory.
Unless getting ones bum on Treasury seats so one can hand out plum jobs and contracts to ones political cronies just to set oneself up for a not-to-demanding post-political sinecure in a major financial institution is the be-all-and-end-all of public life.
Ahh provincial govts, one of the glories of Western civilization,
Do I detect some frenzied commenting from the Strocchiverse because Rudd has said Swan will be handing down a “good Labor budget” tomorrow night? “Me-tooism” it seems survives only in Jack’s mind.
15 Kim May 12th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
No, your intellectual “detector” is blowing smoke, as usual, and appears to be badly in need of a valve job or new set of rings.
Dont forget that one half of my “Great Convergence” thesis predicts that the LN/P will shift to ALP positions on social equity issues. As has occurred on the key issue of industrial relations. So on this score the Strocchiverse, as usual, is light years ahead of Kim-istan.
My main interest has always been the ALP’s shift to LN/P positions on cultural identity issues. In this respect Rudd is more than I could ever have hoped for on matters of social-structuring substance, as opposed to social-staturing style. Lets review the score card so far. Rudd has me-tooed Howard on:
- staying the course on indigenous intervention to clean up the Cultural Lefts mess in remote communities;
- knocking back assylumseekers;
- staunchly opposing gay-marriage;
- maintaining most of Howard’s ADF troop committments in Iraq and Afghanistan.
As regards the mythical “good Labor budget”, would this be the Rudd who continues Howard’s policies by:
- pouring money into Howard’s pet private schools?
- copy catting Howard’s carbon gas reducing forest-conserving policies in PNG?
- folowing Howards deference to the RBA on interest rates and inflation targetting?
- implementing the Howard-style tax cuts?
- supporting privatisation of state utilities?
These propositions are not ideological relics “surviving in Jack’s mind”. They depict facts that are somewhat inconvenient for Kim to openly acknowledge.
In social equity policy Rudd-ALP is even more of a Howard-LN/P me-tooer rather than vice-versa. So my Great Convergence thesis is a little ahead of the facts in that area. My bad.
Surprising really since the tax-and-spend zeitgeist and Labourite political balance means Rudd could well afford to be much more economicly progressive than he actually is. I conclude that Rudd is a political wimp and milquetoast, very much the softly-softly diplomat anxious not to step on anyones toes.
I predict Rudd-ALP will be be forced to the progressive Economic Left by Gillard in later budgets or terms. And the LN/P will follow suit if they know whats good for them.
Rudd the red-ragging, knee-jerking liberal juggernaut to begin with. With Lefties like that who needs Righties?
I think we need “Cultural Dries” who can express themselves more succinctly and less bombastically!
17 Kim May 13th, 2008 at 12:38 am
If you were paying attention you might have noticed a little self-deprecation creeping in around the corners of the bombastic adulation.
Why dont you try on the Dries head-to-head, blow-by-blow, knock-down-and-drag out heavy-weight style for a change?
Me thinks you Wets “dont have the ticker”.
“that the LN/P will shift to ALP positions on social equity issues.”
“I predict Rudd-ALP will be be forced to the progressive Economic Left”
Shorter Jack Strocchi - rising damp is the new dry.
“ANd state governments, unless they happen to be privatising, are ideologically irrelevant.”
So where were you in the good fight led by the Vic and Qld Govts to overturn entrenched religious/conservative opposition to reforming legislation on SCNT research?
C’mon people, Rudd is a conservative who leads the Labor Party. He’s not a real Labor man. As for the polling, Jack Strocchi is correct - the polls tend to underestimate the Coalition vote - it always seems to be higher at the actual election. However, that does not mean that their current polling numbers are anything but abysmal. If they know what’s good for them, they’ll be changing leaders asap. Actually if they knew what’s good for them they’d have done that some time ago.
Everyone:
After all the harm they have done my wife and myself, I have no love whatsoever for the Liberal Party and I wish them a speedy trip to hell.
However, having said that - Brendan Nelson is probably the best thing that has happened to the Liberal Party since John Hewson [and you know what the boofheads did to him].
When will it sink in that many of the public are fed up with overgrown school bullies from a bygone age smashing this and wrecking that for no good purpose whatsoever. We need an intelligent active Opposition with real policies, one that is actually an alternative government …. and we do not need any more commissioned opinion polls to tell us how we are supposed to be thinking nor do we need any more Tarot-card reading thinly disguised as political journalism.
Actually folks it’s a bit of a myth that Newspoll has some systemic bias against the Coalition when it comes to primary vote estimates.
In 1990, 2004 and 2006 Newspoll slightly underestimated the Coalition primary vote, but in 93,96,98 and 01 it slightly overestimated the Coalition primary vote.
Graham - polls dont tell you what you are supposed to be thinking - unless you’re paranoid and need to seek comfort from some hypothetical herd. They are the best measure we have that tells us what people actually are thinking in terms of their political support…. no more, no less.
oops, 2006 should read 2007.
“Rudd the red-ragging, knee-jerking liberal juggernaut to begin with. With Lefties like that who needs Righties?”
Incremental shift w/ a bit of smoke & mirrors added to help kick start the process of moving the juggernaut on a different path whilst allowing the sweat-soaked crew & economy class passengers to breathe some REAL air & give the finger to the toffs on their disintegrating deck chairs as a cathartic act. Lucky they weren’t made to walk the plank…or be left w/ the reptiles on that craggy ole island.
Then, add a bit of alternative fuel…wind & sun can come in quite handy…& some of the reserves of coal if we can squeeze them RIGHT….helps to clear the air further above & below decks…& get us more nautical miles to the gallon…
add some plants to a roped off area & call it a “Biosphere Reserve” (like Cabo de Gata-Níjar Natural Park)…throw in some celebrations (all invited, including toffs…all is forgiven except we might have to sign a Moscow Declaration to deal w/ the worst of the worst once we hit shore) and once the “all for one & one for all but BYO interpretation of ONE costume” PARTY gets raging fed by recycled water & “fair-go” spritzers & happy independence gas…we might find that the “hostile glares” will diminish & fun was had by (almost) all.
There’s always a miserable bas*ard & his hanger-ons who can’t be pleased. Probably become the new Captain in a decade or so…when everyone gets bored…& the lookout starts feeding us BS ‘cause he’s hungry…the fella has worms I tell ya!
Ensure the safety nets & boats are firmly in place just in case of sea sickness due to waves emanating from extreme weather (hopefully the Emergency drills will be less panicky & quiter than the last lot), add a few fake palm trees & wave pools for the kiddies…& remind them not to get their laptops wet…
Check the food is free of weevils & other nasty things…thoroughly swab the galley…visit friendly ports…trade sustainably…take on board a few new passengers by adding a self-sustaining deck, but be wary of over-crowding in the alleyways…put up “no peeing in the pool” & “wash your hands before eating & before and after shaking” signs…provide counselling & other services for the newbies & traumatized oldies…try to convince the newbies to attend the multi-cultural centre and learn English and not gather in huddled groups below decks & in rundown cabins…ask them to cook & paint & add to the general atmosphere of the ship…
Pay the ship’s doctor & nurses well…we don’t want them drinking too much & carrying on…provide lessons on the origin of the ship & ports it trades with…nickname the ship “Uluru”…do a bit of Noah’s thing…add some RESPECT signs to the menagerie…clean the sh*thouse of the mess left behind by the last Captain & his mates…
And hopefully we’ll find a New World better than the Old World…& avoid any Poseidon adventures…& we can always use the portrait of the past Captain as a dart board when we get bored…hopefully not boarded. Tell the gunner to keep an eye out. But teach him to smile & wave.
And hope for Cap Howard’s sake the reptiles don’t get too hungry on that island.
I reckon I might take to this new Cap’n Rudd…we’ll see tonight if he & his officers have got their BEARINGS.
Be interesting to see which COLOURS they fly.
Nasking, you champ!
The ship sails on. As reporter from the hapless “Her Majesty’s Vessel Menzies” last November, I salute your fine work.
Ahoy!!
Ahoy!! back Ambigulous…& thnx. It was quite a journey wasn’t it? I return the salute & have no reservations in saying I enjoy reading your passionate work too.
Full sun ahead…:)
Jack Strocchi,
Kevin Rudd a Socialist? Nobody in the ALP is a Socialist these days, Jack, not even Julia.
Graham Bell,
Tarot cards are frequently more accurate.
Who says that Right Wing politics have run their course when an opportunity continues to exist for Jew-baiting?
Katz:
perhaps they will never “run their course”?
Jesus said: “The poor you will always have with you…”
And with His audience, he might also have said “The Jews you will always have with you….” (though that could have mystified them)
So:
1. poor
2. Jews
At least two perennial targets - no reason why vicious Right wing politics can’t continue for quite a while yet…..
Hubris, moi? Just the dialectic at play, Jack. Its our time in the sun. Yours will no doubt come again.
And thats the thing with your theory of global drying - it could use some nuance. Bit of an historicist, end of history vibe to it, which may date you.
As for Rudd, no, I’d say the Howard-lite theory only lives on the Strocchiverse - after the apology, the return of the republic debate, the dismantling of the private health bagman surcharge, the end of the pacific solution, the coming end of the the no guestworker position, the wind down in Iraq, etc.
And as for asylum seekers, well, as Ive argued elsewhere at LP, the way s417 applications are treated handlde wont tell us much about policy (just discretion), And lo! Today news of an increase in the humanitarian quota, and the likely wind-down - if not abolition - of temporary protection visas.
really, the question is: what will remain of Howardism at this rate, come Xmas?
My guess: Jack, under his umbrella in the storm, muttering “dry enuff for ya?”
“Yours will no doubt come again.”
No it won’t.
Howardism, a curious reactionary creed that came upon us by accident, will never darken our doors again.
Jack (Jack Jack)
>
The provblem with you laddie is that you often don’t understand that the so called Cultural Left’s agenda is simply what a lot of people born after the second Word War ended think fair enough. Let’s take a slice shall we:
1. This business of blaming the ‘Cultural Left’ for the deplorable state of indigenous communities is extremely bogus old man. This is the real problem. 1. Modern Civilization came crashing down on an archaic Hunter-Gatherer set of cultures, pinched their land, treated ‘em as second class people, then threw welfare at ‘em. The Left and the Right are to blame - that is to say White People. We’re all responsible. And actually so are the aboriginal people who fuck over their own. But this use of what is most certainly a national disgrace to score political brownie points is - DISGUSTING.
>
2.Yes by all means let’s do that. Do you know where the notion that we should give asylum to victims of persecution, war etc came from? Does the word Holocaust mean anything to you. I’m at a loss how we can invade Afghanistan and Iraq because these places are run by ‘evil’ people and then say aout the other side of our faces that persons making their escape from these same places aren’t legitimate asylum seekers.
>
3. Please see my reference to those born post WWII. Once the foges drop out goes the homophobia (and probably the Queen as well).
>
4. Well Afghanistan is legit. Iraq is a publically funded subsidy for Haliburton, KBR and a bunch of other
criminal organisationsfirms. I always find it interesting how people like Dubya can talk out the one side of their head about free markets and then blatantly subsidize thse industries (with which both he and his administration are entwined btw) to the tune of $3 trillion.>
Hypocrisy and anachronism. The title of your first book maybe?
30 Lefty E May 13th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Have a good look at the results of the past decades electoral record in the USE. Parties representing the Cultural Right have been making large gains, Turkey’s ascession is blocked, multicultural ideology is on the nose. Leftys who ignore (at their peril) this ideological sea-change are the ones who are looking “dated”.
Lefty E says:
Lefty’s shopping list of viva la Rudd differences makes for sad reading to those who can remember the “very heaven” that could be glimpsed on the horizon on the eve of the cultural revolution. Once upon a time Cultural Leftists used to brag that the tide of History flowing their way, the dawn of a new era etc, revolution will not be televised etc. Now Lefty E seems patheticly grateful that his political pin-up boy is slightly to the Left of “the most conservative leader in the history of the Liberal Party”. How the flighty have fallen.
And Lefty’s shopping list itself has some glaring ommissions and tendentious commissions. HOward’s intervention seems to have been dropped down a memory hole. It trumps the apology, which was a sop to the Wets. I predict that Rudd will maintain the intervention, if only to deal with the spike in teenage indigenous birth rates.
The pacific solution was already on its last legs because Howard “stopped the boats”. If the boats come back I predict that mandatory detention, temporary protection visas and so on will be utilised. Border protection is popular with the general public, as anyone who watches TV knows.
Likewise credible reports indicate that Howard was already planning a “wind-down in Iraq”, reducing what was basicly a token committment in any case. Which wind down still leaves a large ADF troop committment in-country indefinitely. Ditto Afghanistan.
The dismantling health dismantling is irrelevant to the rightward drift in the Culture War. It is a move towards the Economic Left in the Class War. I predict that the LN/P, tending to converge with the ALP on social equity issues, will not waste much political capital opposing this good policy.
My theories are falsifiable. If Rudd drops “work for the dole” or the intervention then I will concede a real liberal-Left cultural tendency, giving hope for the Wets. Likewise if Rudd starts to shut down coal mines and coal powered power generators then I will concede a real divergence b/w the parties. But if I were a Lefty I would not be pinning my faint hopes on these pipe dreams.
The problem with Lefty’s cultural model is that it is anchored in a primitive, pre-scientific voodoo theory of social behaviour - bad men [Howard] lay curses [dog whistles, race cards] on the people and the crops fail [minorities sub-par].
Howard’s Culture War gave him a popular edge because it jelled with the reality of life at the grass roots of mainstream Australia. The tendency of White Flight from the blackboard jungle and the maintenance of white-picket fenced neighbourhood property values will continue to push the public to the Cultural Right. Cultural Leftists can run from the reality of this, but they cant hide.
31 Spiros May 13th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
That is likely, so long as Rudd continues to heed his cultural master’s voice on matters of substantive policy, if not symbolic politics. OTOH, if the Wets in power get carried away with their ideas then we will see a repeat of the 1974-2007 Culture War, a cycle of botched revolution and belated reaction.
Revealing that Spiros identifies the “Howardism” as a “reactionary creed”. This would be the Howard whose core cultural policies and polemics curbed or curtailed psycho-killing gun nuts, the spree of hate crimes in ethnic enclaves and the orgy of child rape in indigenous communities.
Its little wonder that wonder that so many decent people identify post-modern liberal-Leftism with moral degeneracy.
jack, there are some truisms in your arguments…but also hyperbole & spin. If only your good King John had not sold out to the robber barons & remembered the Magna Carta perhaps his legacy would sparkle a wee bit more:
Magna Carta (Latin for “Great Charter”, literally “Great Paper”), also called Magna Carta Libertatum (”Great Charter of Freedoms”), is an English charter originally issued in 1215. It required the King to renounce certain rights, respect certain legal procedures and accept that his will could be bound by the law. It explicitly protected certain rights of the King’s subjects, whether free or fettered — most notably the writ of habeas corpus, allowing appeal against unlawful imprisonment.
His work w/ Bush re: stickin’ it to “habeus corpus” & keepin’ wee ones in iron cages pissed me & many others. Certainly some groups/individuals USE their children in despicable ways to fulfil their goals…but it’s in the doing of the countering of such strategies that is a measure of the man/woman.
“The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good.”
(Samuel Johnson)
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
(Martin Luther King, Jr.)
HUGE NEWS people - the Rudd Government is **abolishing TPVs altogether**.
As I noted recently, this wasn’t the ALP policy going in to the election (which was reducing TP to 2 years, and one-off issue only). I’m surprised - and delighted.
This news will reverberate around the world - the Australian TPV was the model for many regressive changes in the EU, especially places like Denmark and Germany. It caused untold suffering and harm - and no doubt contributed strongly to the number of deaths of women and children the SIEV X, as it refused family reunion.
make no mistake, this is a MASSIVE departure from the Howard era. He’s being utterly purged!
Anyone who claims Rudd is Howard-lite is now officially BONKERS!
“Howardism, a curious reactionary creed that came upon us by accident, will never darken our doors again.”
Spiros, i hope you are correct.
Think Tony Abbott and Steven Bradbury and be very careful with your predictions. Especially with regard to the last liberal leader standing, before the next election.
Remember, “the monk” is Howards’ most dangerous spawn and shows no sign of retirement.
What is temporary protection?
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party first proposed temporary protection for refugees in July 1998. In October 1999, three year TPVs were introduced by the Government with the aim, according to the Immigration Minister, Mr Ruddock, of “…Excluding unauthorised arrivals from accessing permanent residence by giving genuine refugees a three-year temporary protection visa.
TPVs bar people who arrived by boat, but are found to be refugees, from settling permanently, until they have their cases reassessed after three years has passed. Almost all those who were granted TPVs had long periods in detention mostly in the desert camps, before their claims for refugee status were accepted.
In September 2001, additional laws introduced a ‘7 Day rule’ which meant that if people spent more that seven days in a country where they might have claimed asylum while on route to Australia, they are never eligible for permanent protection or family reunion, rather they can only have ongoing temporary status.
Refugees on TPVs are prohibited from applying for family reunion. They are barred from funded English programs, non-fee paying tertiary education and accessing the Job Network. They are eligible for Medicare and Centrelink payments only.
Around 8,589 TPVs were issued to refugees since they were introduced in October 1999. 4,113 were issued to Iraqis and 3,797 to Afghans. Reprocessing has commenced for those people whose three-year TPV has expired, but the way their claims for protection will be judged is not clear. It is expected that about 2,200 will have expired by the end of 2003.
People working with refugees know that levels of anxiety amongst the refugees on TPVs are high . One Afghan has already suicided at the town of Murray Bridge in early 2003. One teenager on a TPV worried:
I am not sure about my future. I still have to wait three years for my visa - I don’t know what to do. I can’t make any decisions because I don’t know what’s going on with my visa, if [my country’s situation] changes, they [DIMIA] might send me back.
(Oxfam Australia)
——–
Good riddance to ‘em. Same goes for One Nation & John Howard. So falls another major pillar of the “dark kingdom”. The LIGHT shines ever brighter in Australia. May it spread ever outwards.
Thnx for the positive news Lefty E…& Labor.