Are you concerned that the Democrats might get stacked out (”swamped”, as small-party animal Pauline might say) by moderate Liberal refugees?

Kim: I basically asked whether Andrew Fraser justifies the faith Bligh has in him.

At a meeting this morning it was the opinion of one of the cooler heads in the party that Borg will be a better premier than she is, and that for the good of Qld she has to go, even if it means a term of National Party in government.

Myself, I have no idea. Seemingly indestructible governments can fall like a house of cards (ie, the Howard govt). The Australia public voted in a nearly un-reelectable (Paul Keating) as PM, and Borg does have some appeal (ie, ALP ladies this morning talking warmly about him & most frostily about how Bligh “has to go”)

So you don’t think the amazing powers of The Borg will be enough, steve?

Due to the traitorous activities of Gough Whitlam, & the patriotic actions of Joh Bjelke-Petersen, my district was stiffly National Party. Seeminly forever.

Thanks mostly to pork barrelling, subsidising & handouts, it is now majority ALP territory. Even the “RSL of the anti-Gough” campaign are quite likely to be ALP voters these days. I doubt the Libationals will ever get them back.

Even among their hard-core previous support base, there is a big hurdle to overcome:-
(Overheard recently in my barroom) Born & bred conservative voter to a National party tin-shaker: “You get my vote back when I get my guns back!”

Rather a novel way of describing a situation which has arisen due to complete & total inability to run so much as a chook raffle.

Health (particularly) is a stuff-up due to culpable incompetence.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23688965-5014046,00.html

The funny thing is, this statement applies exactly to the Liberals in Victoria (most obviously), NSW and Western Australia. (Dunno about SA and Tassy.)

I like Andrew Bartlett, but I wouldn’t rate him as any sort of expert in How To Win An Election In Queensland.

Ah, but I have a lot of experience with losing them, which does give me an idea about what NOT to do! More seriously, I don’t claim to be an expert on how major parties should win elections. Apart from anything else, they have access to mountains of polling and research which I don’t (and apart from selective (and therefore not always reliable) leaks, neither do any other commentators). Also, successful strategies for major parties seem to inevitably involve excessive insistence on assertions which are highly misleading, which I find hard to recommend as a strategy despite its occasional succcessfulness.

My experience is mostly with the even more helllishly difficult task of minor parties trying to succeed/survive in a two party system. Despite recent times, I have had some modest successes in that area, but that’s not really the topic of this post - beyond I suppose any speculation about whether a Lib/Nat merger might open up some extra electoral space for the Greens (which I can’t see much likelihood of as things stand, unless some very serious splintering happens)

In any case, as I said on my website, I actually don’t think Springborg is as hopeless as he is often painted by commenters here. Nor do I think Anna Bligh has shown much sign of reversing the increasingly problematic performance of the Qld Labor government, which to me seem to be on a fast road to Iemma-ville. (which as NSW also shows, doesn’t mean the Libs & Nats will automatically benefit)

I find it hard to imagine advertising can be very effective when it seeks to portray a ‘buzz’ which doesn’t exist (thinking of that horrendous Hillary Clinton mockumentary advert of a guitar band). And I also find it hard to see this Lib/Nat merger actually coming off without some sizeable eruption along the way. But it is also true to say that it is hard to see the Libs & Nats in Queensland making much progress at the next state election as things currently stand, which is no doubt why dramatic options and leaps of faith are being fervently floated.

Graham Young may be right that Mal Brough will be some sort of huge circuit breaker for the Libs but I can’t see it myself, mostly because of the way the Lib’s are behaving organisationally, rather than any pros or cons about Mal. If they can’t stop the internal shitfighting, it won’t matter who they have leading them, organisationally or on the parliamentary side.

Depends what you mean by “loser”, really - in an 89-seat Parliament the coalition currently have 25 seats, I reckon they’ll win 40 if the merger goes through. There, I’ve said it: a ridiculously long time out from the election with equally absurd lack of on-the-ground knowledge, but when has ignorance been a barrier to punditry?

Big call. If you could nominate the 15 seats, I’d be interested. Most would have to be Brisbane ones, and that’s where I don’t think it’s doable. Anna has played her hand very cleverly since coming to power - differentiated herself from Beattie on a number of fronts without dissing him, kept a lower profile but broadened her own image, and she’s got big biz as well as the media eating out of her hand. Don’t forget any stuff ups in health and education can be justified thusly - our problem in the past was that the Feds weren’t coming to the party, now Kevin is helping, but it’ll take some time. Beattie did the blame the Feds thing effectively last time, and Rudd’s “Rome wasn’t built in a day” message is going to be good for one Queensland election at least.

They should have got 40 seats last time. The polls said they would, before their pathetic leadership (including The Borg) had its day in the election spotlight. And it only took one day for it all to collapse.

Kim, I’ve said a bit more on this matter here, but to address your points:

she’s still all shiny and new, as far as the Qld public are concerned?

I’ve seen ‘em come and go and so have you, Kim.

what happens to Lawrence if he becomes a three time election loser next time around?

Depends what you mean by “loser”, really - in an 89-seat Parliament the coalition currently have 25 seats, I reckon they’ll win 40 if the merger goes through. There, I’ve said it: a ridiculously long time out from the election with equally absurd lack of on-the-ground knowledge, but when has ignorance been a barrier to punditry?

Notice how Graham Young keens for Mal Brough, an eminently suitable replacement should Lawrence stumble. Then there’s Can-Do looking for something after he Has-Done the BCC. Would Fiona Simpson be that repellent to the middle-outer suburbs, really? There’s three cults of personality before you start.

As Andrew Bartlett said …

I like Andrew Bartlett, but I wouldn’t rate him as any sort of expert in How To Win An Election In Queensland.

You have to actually do some policy work and stop making up crap when an election is called. In both NSW and Qld last time, policy was either completely absent or obviously concocted on the back of an envelope during the campaign

Couldn’t agree more - but Howard ‘96 puts the lie to that.

Anyway, as I said earlier, it’s the machine that’s being assembled rather than the state leadership. The speed and the sheer lack of spoiling and ratbaggery is impressive/worrying.

Last I heard, elections will still be held in the future.

But that’s the thing. At state level, elections keep happening and they keep losing, even when they should win. Hence the constant search for an organisational or leadership fix. They don’t stop to think:

(a) They really have little to offer in terms of ideological difference with managerialist Labor parties (or maybe they do know that);

(b) You have to actually do some policy work and stop making up crap when an election is called. In both NSW and Qld last time, policy was either completely absent or obviously concocted on the back of an envelope during the campaign;

(c) This implies putting some effort in to something other than infighting and organisational navel gazing!

There may have been a towel

Let’s be fair.

Our Liberal and National friends must stop this nationwide mindless and meaningless funk-fest (mistaking activity for progress) and get on with the job of rebuilding policy platforms.

That aside, the Borg is just creepy and no-one in south east Queensland takes him seriously. I blame the nude ironing.

That’s great, Lefty E!

As Mark said, though, what happens to Lawrence if he becomes a three time election loser next time around? Particularly when this whole edifice has been constructed around a (contentless) cult of personality? As Andrew Bartlett said, it’s hardly as if he is on much of a roll to start off with. What then for the “united” conservative force?

Please refer to Nelson by his borg name: “9 of 100″.