As a follow up to my last post, Newspoll is out showing no change in 2PP between the parties (57-43 in Labor’s favour) with Nelson on 12% as PPM and Rudd dropping back 2 points to a still stratospheric 70%. (Think about that for a second – out of every 10 people you pass on the street, it’s likely that only 1 thinks Brendan would be the better PM while 2 don’t know and 7 are likin’ Kevin.) I raise this for its own sake, but also because The Poll Bludger in the same post that reveals the Newspoll figures refers to a Galaxy poll which found “only 23 per cent of voters saying the budget would leave them better off against 33 per cent worse off”. I hadn’t noticed in any of the coverage of this poll the other question asked:
Wayne Swan considered the better economic manager by 36 per cent against 25 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull.
My first inclination was to think the Galaxy poll needed to dig deeper and find out whether people might believe the budget didn’t make them personally better off but was still in the national interest – which would contradict the spin being put on it that the budget wasn’t well received. In other words, to consider the real possibility that voting intention would be shaped by something other than perceptions of personal gain or loss. As The Poll Bludger further notes, yet another poll found just that. It’s a pity the Galaxy pollsters, or the papers who paid for the poll, didn’t think to include such a question, as it would have been preferable to ask the same sample.
There’s a bit of a moral here. Over at Gatewatching, Jason Wilson writes of Graham Young’s research into the reception of the budget:
This is part of a broader blogosphere response to the budget which, for mine, has left the MSM in its wake in terms of quality of analysis and timeliness.
If you have a look at the National Forum poll, the right questions were being asked. Wilson summarises the results:
Swan’s budget was a hit with the Labor base, and has entrenched the sense that Dr Nelson is incompetent, even among Liberal voters.
By following the links you can see the questions and the figures and some commentary for yourselves. But the point here, for the purposes of this post, is that they’re the right questions to ask – of one sample – and they’re being reported with far less spin and much more objective commentary than anything in the MSM.
Spot the difference. Two different polling organisations, two different papers, one trying not to become the surrogate opposition, one is.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/labor-surges-libs-sink/2008/05/19/1211182704262.html
Dont forget those are the “all important” preferred PM ratings, Dennis.
Correct me if I’m wrong but hasn’t Nelson stormed to a record high Preferred PM rating? There should be celebrations allround within the Liberal Party because of this stunning result.
Alastair, each time I see Dolly Downer wheeled out on Lateline he is carrying on like they have moved ahead on 2PP and Menzies has returned!
Alastair,
Yes, oh yes !! YES !!!
We may now confidently predict that the Liberals will SNATCH the seat of Gippsland from the Nationals, achieving a new record: landslide-in-the-first-byelection-after-a-PM-lost-his-seat.
Brendan will be expecting confidently something like this:
* Health worker from out of town (LIB) 75%
* Party hack from Melbourne (NAT) 10%
* Town cryer/Mayor/drama impresario/ex-teacher (ALP) 5%
OTHERS = Fetus First, Greens, Democrats, Independents, Citizens Suspectorals, Shooters, Fishermen, No-Desals, Sheep-botherers, DLP, Pauline Hanson Rises from the Tomb, Hemp-in-the-Hills Syndicate, Timberworkers Lobby, Clean Coal Alliance, High Country Cattlepersons Stunt Riders, etc 10% (in total)
Game on !!!
I don’t mean to gloat but …
Dennis Shanahan is… over the HORRIBLE poll results for Labor!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23726970-601,00.html
Hah!
So,it seems by reading here,that Rudd is the preferred Prime Minister,and of all the potential of humans to ask questions,that,that question as one of two,was universally accepted, on the day of the questions being asked,within the limitations of the universally asked!? So, all Labor type voters ,if I can make this conclusion within the parameters of their previous behaviour,would consistently want to only be asked two questions,of the same meritorious type implied,I suppose, in the answering of questions!
Yes Mark,the ALP is reeling following these disastrous figures, revealed by Dennis:
“The Coalition has also lost its mantle as preferred economic manager to the Labor Government, with 52 per cent saying the Coalition could not deliver a better budget, to 29 per cent who said it could. Mr Rudd still has a near record rating as preferred Prime Minister at 70 per cent, down two points, and Dr Nelson has moved up three points back to double digits of 12 per cent – the highest he has been this year.
“
But Lefty E!!!!
Dennis, nothings “bounces” in the stratosphere.