The Liberals will be pursuing vendettas rather than votes.
Peter Hartcher in the Sydney Morning Herald.
But why should that surprise? Isn’t that what they do at state level? Isn’t that what they did the last time they were in opposition federally?
Speaking of which, Malcolm Turnbull apparently came up with the *clever* plan of suggesting all possible leadership rivals move to state politics.
The Australian can reveal that Mr Turnbull spoke in March to Mr Hockey, the former workplace relations minister, suggesting a possible switch to the NSW parliament. Earlier this month, it is understood Mr Turnbull made a similar suggestion to Ms Bishop, the former education minister and current federal deputy Liberal leader, suggesting she take over the leadership of the troubled West Australian division of the Liberal Party.
Turnbull’s being trashed from all sides within the Libs, it seems. Who wants a bet on Costello being leader by the end of the year?
“But why should that surprise? Isn’t that what they do at state level? Isn’t that what they did the last time they were in opposition federally?”
Probably true of all oppositions Kim – especially after they’ve just been voted out!
Think Crean/Beazley/Latham
Think Howard/Peacock
All quite amusing for the political punditry but probably doen’t mean alot in the long run.
Beazley held it together for the first term in opposition – and nearly won. There might be a moral in that!
Similarly Qld Labor from 96-98 – out of government only two years.
Why do people keep wishing dumb cluck Bishop on us here in the West as a state politician? What’s the point anyway? She’s not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but she’s not THAT dumb. I’d take Buswell over Bishop any day and I suspect that most others would too.
Maybe she lacks an unnatural interest in Quokkas?
Erica Betts for Will Hodgeman’s job down here in Tassie? That would be very, very funny!
Costello for leader? I can’t see it happening. Why now? He never had the polling numbers, even in Howard’s darkest days as PM. Not just lack of acceptability in the electorate, he lacked the cojones – then and now. Witness how he ran up the white flag the moment the election verdict was established.
If he did not have the ticker to lead the Libs in 2007, when they had all the much-exploited benefits of incumbency behind them, he won’t do so now that the odds are stacked against them. It’s all too hard, see, and Petey wants it on a silver platter.
The other factor mitigating against him is that the Liberals lost mostly due to WorkChoices, in which he was instrumental. Too much baggage.
Eventually he will go back to the private sector to continue his crusade against employees. What he cannot or could not achieve from the offices of government, he will try to achieve from outside office.
Nope.
The Libs have the smell of death about them.
Since Ratty trashed the Menzian consensus:
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
‘Cept that’s wrong too. In the Federal Sphere the worst Libs are frozen in attitudes of horror and denial, like plaster-cast Pompeiian volcano victims.
If you want “passionate intensity” among the Libs you need to visit the various Führerhauptquartiere Wolfsschanzen and religiose flagellatoria in NSW.
Well, the private sector job offers reportedly have been non-existent. Hence his decision to make some bucks by “writing” his memoirs (actually being penned by his father in law Peter Coleman).
I don’t think the question is whether Costello would be a good leader – I agree, he’d be terrible – but whether he’s still interested and whether the Libs might turn to him in desparation. Turnbull’s obviously pissed a lot of people off.
Sorry, crossed with Katz – my comment was a response to Rx at 6.
The Labor Party didn’t behave like this in ‘96. Beazley kept them together and they almost won the ‘98 election.
I reckon you’re right, Kim. They’ll spend the year preparing Costello’s silver platter, and deliver it to him by Christmas. He still won’t know what to do with it, but I think he’ll take it.
Mark #8
No doubt the thought has crossed the Libs’ mind more than once or twice. They really are near the bottom of the suitcase. Nelson is an accident-prone dead man walking; Turnbull divisive, deeply unpopular with the ‘dries’. Also the republic issue looms, and that will wedge Moneybags nicely indeed.
But remember, like Turnbull, Costello never had the party numbers either. Even as Howard tanked in the months before the election, and despair was all around, they still passed up on poor old Pete.
All those Costello-dislkers are still there. Desperation would be the only thing that might make him a “possible” in the future.
Yes, they might just grit their teeth and put it to him. Indeed, I think it highly likely. I predict he’d decline. He is weak and all bluster. Without the benefits of incumbency and a so-biased Speaker in Hawker to shield him in Question Time etc, he would be quickly exposed.
He’s no fool; he would have to be anticipating that. The thought of the struggle (Oppo Leader is the most gruelling and thankless job in politics) and all but inevitable humiliation would be enough to dissuade him. IMO.
Hard to know, Rx. I did think that when he turned down the leadership on 25/11, it was partly a recognition of the poisoned nature of the chalice as well as a swipe at Howard. But I’m sure he’s been reflecting on the fact that his prospects of doing anything else with his life are more limited than he thought.
I think you’ll find it’s pride and money that’s motivating her, because she really is THAT dumb otherwise.
The latest episaode in this comedy is Minchin announcing on the ABC that Downer should keep his mouth shut because he’s retiring on May 3rd. Downer counters that he hasn’t made his mind up and Minchin is very ‘presumptuous’ in announcing it.
They may well try begging Costello to make a comeback. Good luck to them. His time is well over and he’s already proved to be weak and unpopular. The debate has moved on and Costello has become irrelevant. Nelson is still telling us that we should be ‘grateful’ to Costello for the tax cuts. Do these people have no common sense whatsoever?
I think that Costello wants to be drafted but it really is a question of timing. Taking the coalition through to the next election will most likely be a kamikaze mission. I can’t see the very cautious Rudd taking an issue as explosive as the GST was in 1998 to the next election. What Costello would be closely considering is whether or not he can handle waiting around to 2010 to take up the reigns.
Ideally, he should prefer Big Mal to take the leadership now. That would burn Mal for 2010 and give Cozzie and Kroger a chance to smash their factional rivals in the Victorian division. As it currently stands, numbers are very divided in the Victorian division both in the Fed parliamentary party and in the branches. A Big Mal tenure of leadership would swing the NSW Right behind Cozzie too. Previously they have been reluctant to support him due to perceived latent progressive tendencies. In order for Costello to have the necessary ingredients for a smooth transition to leadership, he will need to neuter the Kennett/Baillieu grouping in his home state, win over the NSW/SA Right and burn out Turnbull as leader.
If one or another of those factors doesn’t or cannot occur, then I predict he will give up and resign. Given previous form, Costello is VERY unlikely to want to intiate a partyroom challenge.
Interesting.
I’ve never believed $weetie had any. I think he had to drop a few hints because that’s where the only parliamentary party opposition to Howard was. When he actually began to “speak out” beyond his portfolio (remember that?) he made a few noises about volunteering but devoted most of his meagre efforts to preaching about the Ten Commandments, and doing a guest gig at Hillsong!
I don’t reckon Tip’ll be a starter. Seeing as the private sector has shown no interest in employing him, he’ll just sulk in his tent while maximising his super payout.
Mark,
he also supported the symbolic gesture of “walking for reconbciliation” didn’t he?
Rx predicted: “Eventually he will go back to the private sector to continue his crusade against employees. What he cannot or could not achieve from the offices of government, he will try to achieve from outside office.”
There’s another possibility: he enrols in some postgrad course at some Uni and goes back into student politics !! – the fascination with which seems never to have left him, even as no. 2 in the Federal Liberal Parliamentary party!
amazing…..
Sort of, Ambigulous! If I’m remembering correctly, he said he was going to march across the bridge then changed his mind when Howard told him not to. Is that right?
Mark @ 2 – I wouldn’t use the Borbidge government (Qld 96-98) as an example of anything. Labor initially won the election, then the result in Mundingburra (Townsville-based seat) got overturned. Coalition won the by-election, thereby taking office.
Also, to Fine @ 15 – Downer retiring on May 3rd? Apart from the fact that it’s now May 20, I hadn’t heard anything concrete about Downer’s retirement. Methinks a search of the ABC website is in order…
Peter, yes, but Labor kept its head in opposition – that’s the point.
I may have heard the date wrongly, and of course it’s long gone. But, it was definitely a story on ABC midday news with Minchin saying that Downer is retiring.
Antonio @16, apparently Kroger and Costello are no longer first best friends or even 100th best friends. They’ve had a serious falling out over preferred candidates for Tip’s seat or somesuch. It was in the Weekend Australian, I think. Sod can’t find the article for a link.
Mark said:
“If I’m remembering correctly, he said he was going to march across the bridge then changed his mind when Howard told him not to. Is that right?”
DON’T TELL ME THE ENDING, I’M WAITING FOR THE BOOK TO COME OUT!
Seriously, put a spoiler warning before those posts…!
They can’t make Costello the leader, he’ll be torn to bits every parliamentary sitting day with the fallout from his “masterclass” budgets of years past and spinelessness in standing up to Howard in any way, shape or form.
What’s surprising to me is just how badly Turnbull has shot himself in the foot. Clearly he was never a team player (but you don’t have to be in the libs) but if most of them didn’t hate him before, he just gave them plenty of reason to now. Ironically, it’ll give the “poor Brendan” narrative some legs.
Howard’s coming back. I’d bet money that Howard is more likely as next leader of the liberal party than Costello. Hell, I’d bet money that Downer is more likely than Costello.
Message to Malcolm – you don’t ask your political revals politely to leave. You stab ‘em in the back, mate!
Downer in a tizzy over Minchin. How nice!
Costello is also a suspect for the leak. So does he have his eyes on the leadership? One wonders, though I have to say I tend ro agree with the doubts expressed by all Lp-ers above.
Sorry, Antonio! I won’t mention the startling revelations that John Howard was a fiscally profligate lying rodent then!
“Who wants a bet on Costello being leader by the end of the year?”
Oh please lord let it be so. Cut’n'run Pete, the bloke who sulked in his room for months after he got beaten … the bloke whose public devotion to WorkChoices ideology dates back to the 1980s … the bloke whose every public statement can either be contradicted by something he said in 11+ years in government or used to prove how fixated he is on bringing back the past … the bloke who can’t answer a question from a reporter without adopting either a Serious Look or an insufferable smirk … he would be a blogging dream.
Unfortunately there might be just enough shreds of sanity left in the party to realise that he is now the feather duster of all feather dusters and will never, ever be prime minister.
Mark wrote
“then changed his mind when Howard told him not to”
{sigh} the story of his life in Parliament, even at the dizzy heights of Treasurer and Deputy Leader.
He’s a damp squib. He rose without a trace. His best years [did he have any good ones?] are behind him. The souffle has collapsed.
The bubble was burst by a little prick.
On Sunday 25th November he raised the White Flag for the umpteenth time. He was ever the Knight of the White Flag.
******
May he mount his tired and bony steed “Workshy”
And shuffle off to distant pastures brown and dry.
******
cheerio
The Minchin/Downer story is here. Doesn’t say anything about May 3rd but does refer to “Mayo”
Hey! Downer has a blog: http://www.alexanderdowner.com.au/Pages/Headlines.aspx?SectionID=28
Hmm, I think Dolly should redirect his talents. A blog reviewing cigars and malt scotches might be a more apt contribution from him to these intertubes.
Resisted temptation to comment on Downer’s blog. (if one can.)
All I wanted to say was:
Hullo, Dolly.
To give Dolly his due, it does look like he writes his blog himself, and he’s a lot more literate than his glorious leader proved to be when he wrote the execrable listening tour diary. What his musings have to do with the constituents of Mayo is another matter…
How old is Dolly’s photo on his blog? It looks about 10 years and 15 kilos ago. I’m sure the constituents of Mayo are enthralled with his erudite musings on the Blairs and poor public form. Or not.
You see May 3rd – Mayo.
Those Libs are going off like a frog in a sock.
Speaking of which, Malcolm Turnbull apparently came up with the *clever* plan of suggesting all possible leadership rivals move to state politics.
Costello? No, work with me on this one…Would he come home, roll up his sleeves and show the local yokels how it’s done?
Costello did march. Not across the bridge, but in Melbourne.
“. But Mr Costello doesn’t intend to miss the Walk for Reconciliation in his home town of Melbourne on Sunday, shifting another engagement to take up the invitation from ATSIC chair Geoff Clark. Other prominent Liberals have now decided to join the Treasurer, rearranging their programs. Among them, Victorian Liberal Leader Denis Napthine, federal Education Minister David Kemp and Health Minister Michael Wooldridge.”
http://www.abc.net.au/am/stories/s217991.htm
Thanks, casey!
Until Crean came to the leadership things were quite stable for the federal ALP. Likewise Bob Carr was the only leader for the seven years of Liberal government in NSW and as far as I can tell Brumby and Bracks were the only two opposition leaders in Victoria.