Well, say what you like about his journalistic ethics and standards, you have to give Andrew Bolt some credit for his truth telling. Who knew that among the coal miners, small business people, pensioners, farmers and working families of Gippsland, the most important swinging voters resident in the seat were… journalists! In their thousands, presumably.
But a souring against Rudd - especially among journalists - saw the Nationals win Gippsland with a strong swing of 6.4 per cent against Labor. That’s well up on the usual 4 per cent anti-government swing in by-elections.
I’m sure he shouldn’t be read as suggesting that the “oncer” narrative is just a fiction invented by the press gallery. I eagerly await “insiders” providing their insights on where this other little gem originated… if only Costello were leader, those recalcitrant polls would show that a majority of journalists Australians are waiting on their front decks with their op/eds baseball bats to throw Kevin Rudd out in 2010!
But the unthinkable is now possible. Rudd may lose in 2010. Just think how Rudd on this shaky course will seem then if matched against Opposition leader . . . Peter Costello.
Presumably $weetie would enjoy a massive poll lead if Newspoll tweaked their methodology to over-represent that important demographic of Australian citizens named Glenn Milne.
Mark,
Fairly predictable responses to the by-election from both sides. The Rudd opponents see it as a slap in the face and the end of the honeymoon. The Rudd supporters like yourself dismiss it as just a by-election. They always swing against government. Same old, same old. Boring.
I voted for Rudd las election - I’m naturally a coalition supporter, mildly centre-right - but I just thought it would be good to have a change to get rid of the deadwood. I’m pro-small government, and Howard’s big-government policies were dismaying.
But having voted for Rudd last time - unless he improves considerably and actually does something worthwhile, I’ll probably vote for Turnbull next time. Rudd’s served his purpose - given the Libs a wake-up and a message that they are not born to rule.
Maybe he’ll surprise me - and he does remind me of a younger Howard so there is hope - but what actually has Rudd done yet of any substance? He’s done a few symbolic things like Kyot, sorry and the 2020 summit - but what actual policy changes has he made?
Exactly.
This whole oncer hilarity conveniently neglects the question of alternative electability. Ah, yes.. The Team!.
Born to.. Ruuule Australia! marmalade and jam…five chinese crackers-up-your-arse going bang bang bang bang bang
Hmmmm Rudd has stopped the Regional Rorts. COAG is meeting several times a year implementing the 2020 Summit outcome to make Australia one seamless economy, saving business like $9Bn a year, buying water back in the MD, $7.3Bn savings in the budget which is, finally after 12 wasted years, anti-inflationary and finally working on an ETS.
Not headline stuff but busy reforms that Howard/Costello too lazy to do.
Nanananana told yaa so. Rudd’s been in seven months and what’s he ever done for us? Yeah OK, there’s the tax cuts, but apart from the tax cuts.
Alright there’s the computers in schools, but apart from the computers.
There’s an end to offshore detention centres and temporary protection visas.
Yeah I’ll grant you that, but apart from tax cuts, computers in schools an end to offshore detention centres and temporary protection visas, what’s RUDD ever done for us?
There’s the money for dental care.
OK, money for dental care, but apart from….
There’s the political donations bill.
There’s the reform to the Trade Practices Act.
There’s the new Workplace Relations Laws.
Bloody Rudd - works too hard if you ask me.
But the unthinkable is now possible. Rudd may lose in 2010.
I’ll tell you something else that’s unthinkable. Climate change denialists.
Wow - big picture stuff!!! Life changing even!
Actually - there is promise in the COAG stuff Jovial…. if we coiuld finally work out a way to get rid of government duplication across states and the Fed - wouldn’t that be great!
….I found this spoon centurion.
Err, this is all a bit off topic, Andrew, but getting rid of WorkChoices is life changing for a large number of Australians. There’s a reason why it was the biggest reason Labor won.
I think Bolt is right. What he’s saying is utterly, totally unbelieveable.Unlike Piers, Bolt is capable of good journalistic practice, though its so bloody rare I can’t gfive you any examples. This isn’t one of those times.
The Rudd victory has had an unintended consequence for Australian literature - a plethora of tight wing political fiction - I’m not for one minute suggesting its good literature, but it is fiction. Kepp it up Boltie. One day, when you mature a bit,people might take you seriously.
Journalists! Pshaw!
“I’ll tell you something else that’s unthinkable. Climate change denialists.”
Rudimentary thinking.
“off topic”????
What was the point of your post then Mark if not to examine whether Rudd is possibly a one-term wonder?
For the record - I don’t think he will be - he’ll have at least two terms. But I may not be voting for him again… and I’m not even a journalist.
Well Mark, Gippsland is well known as hot-bed of journalism. Along there with the dairy cows and the power stations. So it all makes sense, sort of.
Andrew, I discussed the available evidence for the one term hypothesis in a previous post, to which I linked. This one’s about Bolta and the media pack.
GregM, perhaps Bolt has a holiday house in Gippsland?
GregM
Latrobe Valley Express, Warragul Gazette, Mirboo North Sentinel Times (?), etc
Not a big hotbed…. but there’s one infamous ‘journalist’: Wilfred Burchett lived on a farm at POOWONG !!! But don’t tell Andrew Bolt.
Mark at #7 wrote:
“Err, this is all a bit off topic, Andrew, but getting rid of WorkChoices is life changing for a large number of Australians. There’s a reason why it was the biggest reason Labor won.”
I agree. But we’re still waiting for Rudd and Labor to *get rid* of WorkChoices. Which they haven’t done beyond promise a timeline and fiddle with AWAs a bit (and without giving much indication of what they’re going to replace it all with).
I don’t buy the “oncer” argument - not yet anyway. People still haven’t sobered up from November yet. But it is a definite possibility, if Rudd and Co. really do disappoint, and that’s still to be tested.
The bigger problem, irnoically enough, is the incredibly high support Rudd continues to have. This is of course why the right are so desperately attempting to paint themselves into a position - any position - of contestation with Labor, so they can scramble back to national relevance before 2010 or 2011 (i.e. whenever Rudd decides to go to the polls).
This problem extends beyond the right, however. As I pointed out, the ALP have actually done stuff-all about WorkChoices, and are likely to keep it that way. “Forward With Fairness” (which won’t kick in until 2010) is guaranteed to be unpopular with the unions (well the decent ones anyway), and will be largely pro-business in its orientation (with a few crumbs and a lot of rhetoric to give it working class/ family credibility).
The same goes for climate change, the gap in aboriginal life expectancy, the rising cost of living and all those other areas where the rhetoric is thick, and the action thin at the moment.
Of course, they’ll provide some responses, and some of these will likely get them over the line. But there is still a relative inertia (almost a delinquency) on the left as it waits with baited breath for Rudd to act. He’s unlikely to do much without a bit of a nudge - if not a good kick - and for all that Bolt’s screeds tend towards the sci-fi/ fantasy genre, they and the Gippsland result, might actually get some cogs moving down at the ALP machine.
The problem is, without the left doing some constructive kicking too, they are likely to be the wrong kind of movements.
Wombo, to be fair to Rudd and co, the timetable for the WorkChoices repeal was spelled out in some detail last year. I’ve got some problems with the direction and the detail, and I’ll be having more to say about that over the next month or so. It is worth noting that what I think they’re trying to do is more complex than mollifying business (though it is about that) but trying to find an IR system that commands long term acceptance from all parties. As I argued here:
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=7091
As to Indigenous life expectancy, climate change and the other issues you raise, I’d make the point that they’ve only been in office for just over 7 months. There is a need to hold them to the side of niceness, but we should also be realistic about what’s able to be accomplished in such a short space of time. But we’re in the business here of giving the nudge!
“GregM, perhaps Bolt has a holiday house in Gippsland?”
An acreage at the Ninety Mile beach, I would say. It is the perfect place for firm climate change denialists to build, close to the beach, and thumb their noses at those creepy greeny spoil sports.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/reprieve-on-ninety-mile-beach-homes-20080701-300g.html
What are Andrew Bolt and Glenn Milne going to do when Costello quits parliament? Who will fit their oncer narrative then?
The journalists been dashed in their chance of another by-election win by today’s Federal Court ruling on McEwen. It will save all the Gippsland journalists from having to move to McEwen to have their next vote in the RWW renewal by by-election campaign.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/federal_ct/2008/692.html
Please don’t tell the journalist that there never was going to be a by-election for McEwen that would just make everything they have written about the case look silly.
Looks like there’ll be a by-election in Mayo shortly, seeing Alexander the Mediocre is packing up the fishnets and de-camping to Cyprus (or hopefully Zimbabwe), where he should wow the Turks. It will be interesting to see how Bolt, Milne, Piers & co spin the inevitable Liberal victory there.
I do think the government should be blowing its own trumpet occasionally to counter the RWDB crap which is constantly rammed down people’s throats in the press and programmes like TT, ACA and the like, which I’d suggest is how most people get their current affairs information.
I also notice pensioners are still whinging about how small their handouts were in the budget.
Jane there is a good chance Labor will not bother to put a candidate up in Mayo.
As for the trumpet blowing against the RWDB’s I get the feeling that Labor has a definite strategy not to bother or engage. They are generally very disciplined.
It seems to work well despite the shrill and ugly day to day noise that would make most of us reach for the sword. In a funny kind of way it also seems to be still driving Bolt and co to more transparent, delusional outbursts like the one that inspired this post by Mark.
It is strange that so few have chosen to correspond with Bolt on that particular linked post.
Good luck to Dolly. He wasn’t too bad, compared to some of the others. What I really want to know, though, is how will the Cypriots react when he has a hissy fit?
Please, Paul, I have heard enough nice things about dolly on the radio this morning to reach for a bucket.
How easily people forget.
joe2,
I did say, ‘compared to some of the others’. He always looked like he was having a tantrum every time he said ‘cut and run’.And he always looked like he was on the edsge of a hissy fit. And ‘My pleasure’ after being quizzed by the rare ABC journalist with moral courage always meant the very opposite.And he lied his head off about Iraq and various other aspects of our foreign policy. I haven’t forgotten. When he compares with Howard, Minchin and some of the other more extreme sludge in the Coalition, is what I meant.
Fair enough, Paul Burns, but he is not someone on my, “Good luck”, list.
Instead of 3 or 4 directorships, a bit of time lobbying, locally, and trying to save Cyprus from further conflict, close to his favourite holiday location, I reckon he should be facing up to his to his part in the invasion of Iraq, for instance.
And a deeper investigation into knowledge of AWB dealings, for a start.