As Lord Downer of Cyprus Alexander Downer prepares to dump on the electors of Mayo less than eight months after they re-elected him, reasonable observers might wonder who exactly is treating the voters with contempt:
“I think they’re treating the people of Mayo with contempt if they’re not prepared to run a candidate when they’re the Government of Australia.”
Except on Planet Janet, there’s probably little interest around about Dolly’s musings, presumably concocted over a cigar or two while dreaming about his Hummer. But there is still some interest around about whether Labor should run a candidate in the Mayo by-election that will result from Downer’s resignation from Parliament.
Tim Watts at Tree of Knowledge thinks not, noting Antony Green’s summary of all the times the Libs eschewed the chance to run in by-elections they couldn’t win while in Government. The Poll Bludger suggests the ALP should:
No doubt their decision will be soundly based on research, but if I were them I’d go for it: the electorate that almost put John Schumann in parliament seems an unlikely candidate for an emissions trading scheme backlash, and a relatively good result would help shake the Gippsland monkey off the government’s back.
The media cycle being what it is, I suspect Gippsland’s now ancient history. I’m not sure if The Poll Bludger’s ever been to the Adelaide Hills, but it’s certainly not fertile territory for Labor. Antony Green’s already got a page up on the by-election contest, and he observes:
Mayo has been a safe Liberal party seat since its creation. Only at the 1998 election has the Liberal Party been forced to preferences, and the highest primary vote recorded by the Labor Party was 34% in 1984. The 2007 election was the first occasion since 1987 at which the Labor Party primary vote passed 30%.
Tables follow.
There was a reasonable chance last year, I thought at the time, that Labor might be able to break through into some seats with a small l liberal demographic. It didn’t come to pass - even in promising seats where the Libs were run very close, like Brisbane’s leafy suburban Ryan, which had once been held by Labor briefly after a 2001 by-election. I think Labor does have a chance of breaking into this sort of territory in the longer term - and flying the flag might be about the only sound reason for running - but the short term disadvantages - being accused by the punditariat again of losing a seat they have never held - probably outweigh any possible long term gain.
How Mayo will go no doubt depends a lot on the candidates - what sort of Liberal is preselected - and whether a strong Independent emerges to challenge - but once again, I suspect Antony Green is right on the money:
Given Mayo’s history, the threat to the Liberal Party would come from a high profile Independent rather than Labor. As noted above, the Labor Party struggles to poll 30% in Mayo. Historically, the Australian Democrats recorded some of their highest primary votes in Mayo, finishing second in 1998 and also regularly challenging the Liberal Party in local state seats through the 1990s. However, as noted with the primary votes, minor parties and independents have tended to cannibalise Labor’s primary vote rather than eat into the Liberal primary vote.
With the demise of the Australian Democrats, the Greens have become the third party in Mayo. While the Greens could cannibalise Labor’s vote at a by-election, and in fact absorb most of it if Labor does not nominate a candidate, it does not seem likely that the Greens would take votes off the Liberals. Mayo is a traditional conservative patch, though one that is more affluent than most non-metropolitan seats. If there is to be any challenge to the Liberal hold on Mayo, it would come from the political centre, not the left.
Speaking of dumping on electors, Paul Keating resigned from Parliament one month after the Labor government lost power in the election of 1996. Was he also “treating the voters with contempt”?
You’re being blatantly one-sided again, Mark.
I suspect that the PM and many long-serving senior ministers of any government that loses office would quit their seat shortly thereafter. Whether Labor or Lib.
Sure, Paulus, he was. Although he had the decency to leave immediately and enable someone else to give them full time representation, while Dolly has spent all his time lunching, golfing, and sorting out his next career move.
Also, I think Downer’s making a valid point here. Do the Labor party members and voters of Mayo not deserve a chance to vote for a Labor candidate?
Yes, a campaign costs money, but the ALP’s apparently well cashed up these days.
Yes, they’d almost certainly still lose, but so what? “Accused by the punditariat again of losing a seat they have never held”? Undoubtedly, but, you know, Rudd does have a teeny-weeny buffer in the polls over Nelson, which should allow him to ignore whatever Milne or Shanahan may write after the by-election.
This is tactical gamesmanship triumphing over principle, and it’s odd to see LP trying to justify it.
So, you were out there loudly asserting the rights of Liberal voters to support a candidate in all those by-elections Howard sat out, Paulus?
Although he had the decency to leave immediately and enable someone else to give them full time representation,
From memory, his much less than stellar office manager was imposed on Blaxland as a kind of feudal bequest for good and faithful service - without much of a thought for “the interests of the voters.” Hatton eventually lost pre-selection in 2007 to Jason Clare after being on every “parliamentary deadwood” list for the entirety of his incumbency.
I also recall that John Langmore resigned from Fraser in 97 to take up a UN job and Gareth Evans of course resigned Holt in 99 to go into consultancy. Similar claims of “letting down the voters” were made by their political opponents.
In truth, people are entitled to resign from parliament, federal parliamentary seats are highly coveted and securing representation for the voters therein isn’t difficult.
The rest is politically expedient noise.
With the Democrats gone, the Liberals will hold on to Mayo until its boundaries are substantially changed. Mayo’s one of those blue ribbon Liberal seats where party loyalty is through the roof, just like Ryan. The only way I can see the Libs losing the seat is to a prominent ex-Lib who has had their preselection dumped as the result of a stack (I’m thinking Peter King’s 18%). They’d have to take enough votes away from the newly endorsed Lib to overcome the combined Green and ALP vote and then hope like hell those leftist voters preferenced against the new guy.
It’s not happening.
I have remarked before that the ALP should go for Mayo anyway.
But it would have to be done properly. No late minute choosing of a candidate or the ubiquitous party hack that is given a dry run. I would chose someone that is respected locally, has connections in the electorate, and can be seen as electable in a very conservative seat.
I think what the ALP should say that unlike the Howard government they are not afraid of contests, even if they are unlikely to win, and also state that ALP voters should have an opportunity to vote for their candidate, no matter what.
This would send out a strong positive message, that the Government is not afraid to put itself in front of voters. Unless there is a massive 15%+ swing against Labor, I think this would be a positive for Labor in the long run.
There is quite a recent history of seats (particularly at State level) which, in 2PP terms, were and would be safe Coalition seats being won by centrist or moderately conservative independents able to tap into local networks and concerns, and more general concern about accountable government and neglected issues. Think of Tony Windsor federally, Peter Wellington in Queensland, the three independents elected in Victoria in the 1999 State election which dumped Kennett, etc. And John Schumann, a Democrat with a high profile left-wing past (and, he would say, a left-wing present) went close to knocking over Downer in 1998, which raises the question of whether Downer was saved on that occasion by the votes of horses scared by subliminal memories of lyrics from the first few Redgum albums.
In short, I agree with Mark and Antony Green.
Guido,
so on those grounds they should put up their candidate from Nov 2007, or someone who has run in a nearby electorate at the most recent State election?
“Do the Labor party members and voters of Mayo not deserve a chance to vote for a Labor candidate?” - Paulus. Kevin Rudd mentioned this argument last weekend, I think it was on “Insiders”. He also mentioned that byelections are expensive.
cheerio
At least Howard had the decency to get himself unelected avoiding the whole bi-election issue
But retirement for senior government ministers after their government is dumped is standard procedure, they just all avoid talking about it if they can. Haven’t seen any Labor state premiers waiting till an election to announce their retirement either!
Yes, but they don’t usually have the hide to criticise their opponents for not running a candidate at the same time as they’ve been stuffing around doing SFA for the past six months at our expense, before deciding to cut and run.
Alexander the not so great - a hypocritical prig to the last.
Chris: it was John Howard’s unelection that was one of the *true* highlights of the night. Maxine, Maxine, Maxine: Maxine the vampire-slayer.
Given that it appears that these days most people vote for a party rather than a candidate, and many candidates are effectively bound to party decisions anyway - why not drop the pretense, and just reappoint someone from the same party for lower house seats as well?
It’s really not as clear-cut as that. Mayo is demographically and geographically very very weird: a bit of old money, lots of old hippies, various Downer loyalists (Sam, I think you’ll find a lot of the loyalty is specifically to that family and/or to Downer himself), genuine country types, and some disadvantaged urban folks.
It was being reported yesterday here in Adders that former state Liberal leader Iain Evans was going to go federal and contest Mayo for the Libs, but given his relative non-popularity at state level and the ease with which he was tipped out, I can’t think he’d be any kind of effective performer for them federally. Evans looks like exactly what he is, an unhealthily preserved private schoolboy, and inspires no confidence even at a local level.
“In truth, people are entitled to resign from parliament, federal parliamentary seats are highly coveted and securing representation for the voters therein isn’t difficult.”
But when they do so 8 months after an election they shouldn’t think the hypocrisy of accusing the other side of ‘letting down the voters’ or ‘treating them with contempt’ will not be pointed out.
Because this would deprive voters of the chance to kick the party in the legs if it preselected a dud (think Cunningham in NSW in 2002).
Wayne Goss remained in parliament for the rest of his term after losing power in Queensland in 96.
Zero chance for Labor here. The only chance for a Liberal loss here is a strong Independent surfing in on Labor preferences - which would still help Labor by default if it happened. It would need a good candidate with profile though, and if there isn’t one already being talked about then there isn’t likely to be one.
The first challenge is getting the Liberal primary vote a reasonable amount below 50% (say 45%), and then having the Independent or other candidate polling more than Labor. Mr Downer only polled only 51% last election, so assuming there’s some personal vote there for him, getting down to 45% isn’t totally implausible. But the Independent would need to be such that they’d be reasonably acceptable to conservative voters so they could also get the majority of Family First preferences. (which is why I’d count out the Greens - they’ll do well enough; probably double figures again, but there’s enough evidence around now to show that they don’t draw as much from the centre/soft right as the Democrats did, at least not yet).
Brian Deegan got 15% as an Independent in 2004, just below Labor on 16.5%, and came in second on preferences, but the Lib primary vote was too high and the conservative minor party preferences favoured the Libs anyway.
When John Schumann came close with the Democrats in 1998, his primary vote was only 22%, a bit ahead of ALP, while Downer was 45.6%. However, the One Nation how to vote card curiously got changed at the last minute to favour Schumann, which helped him get the most One Nation preferences - they polled over 7.5% even in leafy Liberal territory in that election, so this nearly made the difference (from memory, the circumstances of this how to vote card change was the subject of an inconclusive Federal Police investigation).
It is a pity Janine Haines didn’t pick this seat in 1990 instead of Kingston - the Democrats got over 21% in Mayo at that election, only just behind Labor on 23%, and Downer not much over 50%. Easy to imagine that she would have pulled the necessary extra votes to both get above Labor and pull the Libs well below 50%.
It’s interesting people usually note this contribution of John Schumann to the Democrats’ history, rather than his role advising Meg Lees about the strategic wisdom of agreeing to the GST, and his role in advising on the public selling of that agreement with John Howard. I also found it hard not to notice his many articles and interviews personally attacking various Democrats and the Democrats’ efforts in general ever since, but that’s probably just me.
There is a problem that needs to be fixed here. The expense of a by-election needs to be spared.
The situation of former ministers retiring shortly after losing government isn’t about to go away any time soon.
It might be preferable for Labor just to let the Greens run, just to see what a kick in the guts the Libs might get.
It would make my year.
Don’t know if Socialist Alliance are running a candidate. Haven’t heard anything.Imagine the fuss if there was no ALP candidate and SA won.
Maybe Labor can find another blonde footballer’s wife. It’s not as though blonde footballers’ wives were thin on the ground.
I’ve noted those other contributions, in a letter to the Australian during the GST debate, and in the following lines:
ooooh, Renegade Lefty, candidate for Booby, this is getting wonderfully scrappy already. If SA and FF and CEC and ON run, and a splinter “Democrats” grouplet, as well as their Elders & Betters the Greens and Labor, this would have the makings of a lovely little by-election.
Dolly Does Danger.
Just cross your fingers, Mayonians, and hope you don’t get “ute man” ads like we endured in Gippsland. No, of course you won’t. They’d feature “der Hahndorf Mann” or “the Bollinger Lady”, non?
La Pavlova informed non-Adelaideans that: “Evans looks like exactly what he is, an unhealthily preserved private schoolboy”. I had to read that twice. I thought you was describing Dolly.
Na. Dolly is a healthily preserved private schoolboy. In aspic.
I have been reminded of another one of my letters that the Australian didn’t print. It was prompted by media reports that palaeontologists had found fossil remains of the biggest goose ever to have existed in Australia, and it basically said that I found these reports difficult to believe because, as far as I was aware, Alexander Downer was still alive.
Actually, I think what I had at the back of my mind was E.M. Forster’s use of the phrase ‘pickled boys’ to describe a certain kind of English man who has retained the values, beliefs, mannerisms, standards of behaviour and world view of his private school.
Pickles is better than aspic. And I love E. M. Forster.
Well I’ll get out and help the Greens candidate, leaflet, staff a booth type of thing.
Anybody got a clue as to when it might happen?
> Maybe Labor can find another blonde footballer’s wife.
A bit harsh, Dr Cat.
I was at an election-night party and one of the guests, a Labor bloke, blamed that particular debacle on Kevin fuckin’ Foley. He wasn’t happy. He reckoned a decent candidate might’ve won.
Yeah, yeah.
It was largely Foley’s fault, certainly (*self-censors a few true but defamatory remarks about Foley*), but the chief culprit was probably fixer Tom Koutsantonis. The thing about Cornes herself is that the very fact that she didn’t have the brains to say ‘No, I’m not up to it’ indicated to most of us that she wasn’t up to it, and those of us who might still have been in doubt doubted no longer after she demonstrated her judgement by choosing to wear the dress in the linked photo to a dinner at Government House, saying later that she’d worn it to lots of other functions and clearly not aware that bingo and raffle night for the Crows A-Listers isn’t quite the same as a vice-regal do. Mostly, however, it was more of a Bambi-in-the-headlights situation.
Sorry to spit, but I am Bitter. I hated seeing them lose that seat so needlessly. Also, mostly I love living in Adders, but when it comes to this kind of farcical misjudgement I’m unpleasantly reminded that I live in a town where the soi-disant upper crust largely consists of superannuated footballers, people who used to be on local TV, and retired third cousins of the Downers.
And yes, a decent candidate could have won it easily.
As someone from Mayo, I (also) don’t see anyone getting up over Liberal unless (like others have mentioned) it’s a high-profile Independent. For example, if Nick Xenophon had run here, he’d have done extremely well. Almost all of my friends in the electorate voted for him in the Senate (and they’re not a cohesive bunch in terms of the political spectrum either).
I’m also pretty annoyed that no-one’s quoted Downer on saying that he’d stay the full term even if the Coalition lost - but I think that might have been an interview with the local paper (the Courier). The people that run that (it’s one extended family) are profoundly pro-Liberal and pro-Downer, so they probably wouldn’t be trotting it out unless a larger media outlet quoted them.
I’m a bit disappointed I’m not actually in Oz any more (moved all of 3 weeks ago) to look at the reaction in the Hills and Fleurieu close-up.
btw, anyone know if/how I vote? Do I have to register at the Australian embassy in my current country of residence?
Chade
Australian Electoral Comission website http://www.aec.gov.au
Chade, yep, you should be able to vote via the Embassy.
Thanks guys.
Mark @18:”Wayne Goss remained in parliament for the rest of his term after losing power in Queensland in 96.”
Mark @2: “….while Dolly has spent all his time lunching, golfing, and sorting out his next career move.”
Wayne Goss spent an entire term lunching, golfing, sorting out his next career move, etc. (just sayin’)
“‘pickled boys’ to describe a certain kind of English man who has retained the values, beliefs, mannerisms, standards of behaviour and world view of his private school.”
You mean “public school” don’t you, old fruit?
Nabs, we say “public”, they say “private”. Same dif. Why we call some private schools “public” is a bit of a mystery.
Golly gosh, I must get my butler to sort it out, he’s frightfully good on the old Goggle on the computer thingy. My aide-de-camp just resigned, so I won’t get any help from that quarter. Rum business all round. See you at luncheon?
“we say “public”, they say “private”. Same dif.”
Oh, you say “private,” and I say “public.”
And you say “Kubrick,” while I say “Kubbrick.”
“Rubric!” “Rubbric!”
“Kubrick!” “I’m an idiot!”
Let’s definitely call the whole thing off…
This was English terminology.
A “public” school, like Eton etc., was an alternative to a “private” education at home with tutors. Thus, the term “public” accurately defined the difference between a school and a tutor.
This terminology transplanted readily as an affectation into 19th-century Australian soil. The oldest Australian private schools dubbed theselves “public” schools. Parvenue private schools began and remained as private schools.
Jus’ sayin’.
Um, I think Nabs was joking. Just a hunch.
And yes, old bean old sausage, yes they do. Silly old moi.
Egad, ‘t wouldn’t be the first time I missed noticing a chap was only joking. Thanks awfully.