Paul Henderson, the Labor Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, has called an early election for 9 August.
I’m not sure there’ll be a lot of commentary on LP about the campaign, because I don’t think any of us are well placed to blog it – not being Territorians. If there is anyone out there who’d like to contribute some guest posts, please let me know.
It will be interesting to see if it’s discussed in terms of federal implications – and if the intervention becomes an issue. No doubt we’ll have something to say about that.
In the meantime, Troppo Territorian Jacques Chester has a post up, as does The Poll Bludger. And Antony Green had a feeling it was going to happen.
The government has got to be returned, they’re clearly the stronger party…
I would be amazed, astounded, stumped, stunned, ker-donked and kerfluhgled if the ALP weren’t returned.
19 out of 25 seats is essentially an impossible barrier to surmount.
So it’s not going to be very interesting, you think, Jacques?
Yes and no.
The real test for Opposition Leader Terry Mills is whether he can claw back enough seats to get within striking distance circa 2012. If he can’t then he’ll probably be rolled. That’s a shame. In my experience Mills is one of the genuinely decent people in politics.
He’s up against a real gunner in Henderson. Hendo was nicknamed “Minister for Everything” at one point because of how many portfolios wound up in his purview. He’s actually a good fit as Chief Minister — young, smart, aggressive in going after big projects. Voters in the NT rewarded that approach for decades until Clare Martin.
At the level of leadership alternatives, the NT is probably the luckiest state or territory. Ministry is here and there because the pool is so small (only 25 MLAs total). But we can’t have it all.
My question is whether the relevation about spending (or not spending) on aboriginal-oriented programs will become an election issue or not. I like to think it would, but I won’t hold my breath. The NT is the heart of unresolved tensions in Australian aboriginal life. It’s more than unfinished business, it’s mostly been stuck around the starting blocks for decades.
I should note that I am not an unbiased observer: I used to work for CLP candidate Dave Tollner when he was an MHR. And then I ran against him. And that I’ve reckoned Terry would be a fantastic Chief Minister since the first time I met him.
Oh! And I’m a Territorian in exile, no less. I expect Ken Parish will probably hold up Club Troppo’s end of the discussion and remarks.
I agree that Labor is a certainty – pretty much. They are small electorates and sitting members tend to get back unless they have really mucked things up or are faced with a popular opponent.
On the other hand, 4 seats require swings of less than 2% and all of the sitting members are first termers. The Member for Sanderson, not one on a small margin, has stuffed up and badly. For good measure there are 3 seats in which there will be no sitting members. Fannie Bay, Clare Martin’s current seat, was taken by Labor when the previous Chief Minister, Marshall Perron, left Parliament. There are strong candidates for the CLP and Labor in Fannie Bay but the CLP contender has the advantage of a high profile as the ex- Lord Mayor of Darwin.
I wouldn’t put it down as a lay down misere for Labor although they are clearly the favourite.
I have been told the NT has an annual population turnover of around the thirty percent mark. If this is true it would be almost impossible to predict any outcome across the board. Voters would be voting on prejudices they have brought with them from down south and in such small electorates a few dozen votes could make all the difference.
The Brian Burk vote last time did seem to be personal. And Some wag put one of Brian’s posters up on the road into the CBD the Monday after the election with a sign hanging around the neck saying: “Will work for food.” Unkind.
Sorry to revive a terribly old thread for this, but it would seem that the NT election has yielded a few more surprises then expected …
It a close game, a lot closer then expected by the bookies and a few of the pundits, a few were uttering “CLP Irrelevance” but it would seem that’s not the case, at least at face value. Labor looks like retaining power, but a 9% isn’t good news for any sitting government (probably 13-1-11) but if Fannie Bay goes CLP we could have a minority government base on a single independent (Sound familiar QLD?).
Also notable was a relatively low voter turnout and high informal rate. Both explained by confusion around the redistribution (there are heaps of Absentee votes to be counted becuase of this) and poor voter education in two-horse races (Antony Green has detail on this in his election blog). Overall probably not a shining example of electoral management and probably a bit poor of a sitting government to set a short campaign following a redistribution anyway, The NT Electoral Commission really had it rough this time around.
Further details at ABC Elections Website and The Poll Bludger.
PinkyOz
Thanks for the update, PinkyOz.
Always glad to help Mark.