It’s very hard to say how Costello would have gone. Perhaps better than Howard, but he was more than capable of doing himself damage, and the reality would have been huge instability in the government if Howard had gone close to the election - even if “voluntarily”. But the important thing with this research is not just that it was done at a time when the political stars where very differently aligned, but also that it was a hypothetical then too.

Interesting analysis Mark, but I think you are underselling Costello. At the least, the election would’ve been a closer contest if he had been leader. It would’ve undercut the age issue that Rudd played so well.

a journalist or a poseur - can’t a bloke be both?

That raises the additional question of the exact referent of the post’s title!

The latter seems more and more to be a job prerequisite for the former.
Mr Milne is a definite winner on the second score.

You would have thought Stephen Mayne was correct in predicting the end of his career , generally, some time back. Looks likely there is still a Niche market, at Newscorp, for making up stuff about Rudd and unrestrained promotion of Costello.

Talking of history, some of this blokes best work is still available on “You Tube” as a primary source/saused document.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9v5OsC6GdU&eurl=http://wow-factor.com/index.php/glenn_milne_off_the_stage_again

But we shouldn’t wait for 30 years, n’est-ce pas? Got to get those interviews with participants on tape now, even if the participant stipulates that it can’t be released during their lifetime, whateva…. I understand that Jenny Hocking’s biography of the Venerable Gough is due out [vol.1 of two] circa October 2008. Let’s hope Gough lives to see it appear.

It’ll stir up many old memories. I hope it’s not pure hagiography. Meanwhile, he’s had his say in a number of his own books and the odd speech or two over the years

Mark, I can’t wait for the movie. I’ll buy heaps of popcorn to throw at King John’s image. And go “yay!” every time Kevin Rudd goes berserker on the media.

I looked at Mr Milne’s column. Didn’t like what I saw. First, in the printed version (today’s Oz) he refers to parts of Canberra as “the beltway”. This is a term related to Washington DC is it not? Let that pass.

He refers to some private polling by Nationals during the Gippsland byekection campaign. ALP was on track to win it, then their vote plummeted. Nationals volunteers outnumbered ALP volunteers at the booths. He attributes all this (and the strong result for Darren Chester) to an anti-Rudd sentiment. I think he’s wrong.

As noted on LP during the by-election
a) the ALP candidate was not strong [a town cryer FFS, mayor of Sale]
b) Labor candidate had joined ALP a day before nominations, hence
c) resentment by many local branches (including negative public comments by prominenbt members including a well-respected former ALP State Govt Minister), so
d) not surprising that Labor supporters and ALP members might have stayed away from personning booths, and
e) the comments in c) were used in very stark TV ads knocking the ALP candidate, which
f) was part of a very well-funded Nationals TV campaign, along with the ute man n0-tax-on-alcopops ads, Liberal ads, etc

I think that the combination of a) to f) are adequate to explain the swing away from the ALP in Gippsland. As you noted at the time, there was also a Liberal candidate (unlike in Nov 2007) so some drift across to Lib from Nat and ALP was to be expected also.

Mr Milne’s “grand narrative” of voter disaffection with the PM finds no supporting evidence either in the Gippsland result, or in the Nationals’ polling, imo.

cheerio