If (like me), you know bugger-all about why Georgia and Russia have suddenly started a war, this piece in the NYT (hat tip Kevin Drum) provides some useful background. In short, it appears there’s a combination of old-style Cold Warriors in the Kremlin trying to re-establish dominance (if not outright political union) over key parts of the old Soviet Union, two provinces with distinct and complex histories who like their de facto autonomy under Russian protection, and a nationalist leadership in Tbilsi that wants to bring what they regard as “renegade provinces” back into the Georgian fold.
Lots more original reporting and commentary at a Fistful of Euros, which indicates that this may have been a massive miscalculation by the Georgians and particiularly their President (as distinct from all those other rational wars…).
If anybody else has seen (or has written) useful reporting or commentary, please add them in comments.
UPDATE: From comments, an interesting diary from Daily Kos, and an ABC RN “Rear Window” podcast. Also, a news update from the BBC.
Update: [by Mark] A very informative post at Obsidian Wings. And another interesting take at The Global Sociology Blog.
The real worry is that Russia has used the excuse of protecting Russian citizens as an excuse for invasion. Ukraine is chock full of Russian citizens also, and if this is now Russian policy it does not bode well.
the west is reaping what it sowed in kosovo.
this kos diary is quite interesting.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/9/82642/19523/204/565266
‘…old-style Cold Warriors in the Kremlin trying to re-establish dominance (if not outright political union) over key parts of the old Soviet Union,…’
Mmm…well Putin is a proud Chekist and reviver of dominance…bit of a Slobo if you ask me.
Then where the fuck do these Left Fascist arsehole’s get off perpetuating the Imperialist Russian empire anyway?
Anyone would think Marxism itself was an imperialist ideology capable since 1918 of mass torture, murder, rape-and-pillage. Totalitarianism in a word. Red fascism in tooth and claw. Fuck the overbearing bully in any confrontation such as this.
Fuck Russia.
There is a Rear Vision podcast on it from May http://www.abc.net.au/rn/rearvision/stories/2008/2244802.htm
On a side note, I credit the News Limited Sunday papers, in comparison to the Fairfax papers (or at least the Sun Herald) for putting this on the front page and providing some kind of background briefing. Sure it may have been to provide a podium for Greg Sheridan’s “expertise”, but man, fairfax has become inane to a horrible extent when there are 40 pages of faff before the most important news item in the world is mentioned in a brief wire story.
More on topic, what a depressing mix of hydrocarbon politics (is there anything it can’t fuck up?), pissing contestation by a prestige obsessed Kremlin and stupid grandstanding by the Georgian government.
As I’ve said before: Lawyers, Guns and Money are doing a bang up job of following the conflict. Google them and follow the links. (Yeti’s link is also worthwile.)
The Exile has an interesting piece on links between McCain and Saakashvili. Not directly related to the link, but more an explanation of how crazy American diplomacy can be.
And finally, via the BBC: Georgia ‘pulls out of S Ossetia’. Game over, man. Game over.
I’m not really sympathetic with anyone (except the poor people on the ground being bombed and strafed.). Russia beats up on Georgia, and Georgia beat up on the Ossetians, and the Ossetians beat up on the Ingush. After that, it just gets messy.
A quick perusal of the circumstances of the Jan 2008 presidential elections in Georgia suggests that Russia has no credible pro-Russian political clients (unlike in Ukraine).
Thus, though Saakashvili may have been thoroughly humiliated in the eyes of Georgians (I’m stating this as a possibility not a fact) it is highly unlikely that Georgian voters will give Russia a government friendly to Russian ambitions.
It therefore appears to me that Russia is unlikely to get much substantive out of this fracas. Perhaps a warm feeling that they have made life a little more secure for South Ossetians, but Central Asian oil and gas will continue to flow to the West.
And Russia’s snarling face is more visible than ever.
This looks like a strategic defeat for Russia.
Here was a an accident waiting to happen. While you can understand a bit of Russian anguish at another southern border hotspot wiser counsel should have prevailed, especially given the criminal associations alleged for these tin-pot regimes in South Ossetia and Arkazia.
Saakashvili also should not have acted first and where were his mates in NATO? I have little faith in this cold war relic to do much on the prevention front in Europe. Stalin was a Georgian as too were Mikoyan and Shevadznage. The idea that these old comrades could now be killing each other’s civilians is a disgrace
Robert Merkel, Yeti[2] and DownAndOutOfSaiGon[6]:
Thanks for the links. Here’s the only Turkish one I found on a quick glimpse that didn’t just repeat what was on the wire services http://turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=112157 Armenians, on their news service, deny that Russian bombers took off from their air base http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26862
Anyway, how many American casualties [military or civilian] have there been so far in this war …. and in response to the Georgian President’s requst to the U.S. for help, how has Mr Air-Guard-AWOL reacted - or will react? Wonder, too, if the late leader of Hungary, Mr Nagy Imre, is available for a seance?
You need to know Saakashvili’s background. He resigned as Minister of Justice for the government of President Shevardnadzea a week before 9/11. What did he know?
As a man who has always pushed for Human Rights he has made some hypocritical & odd decisions & statements in the past 8 years or so. Another fella who has become a Bushevik ally/crawler.
BTW Richard Green, Greg Sheridan is a Neo-Con hack. At least Putin had the guts to end much of the CHAOS created by the destabilisation of Russia by American, Israeli & mobster interests. Certainly his government’s measures have been over-the-top at times…but at least much of the populace feels secure compared to them “wild West” type days. Resource barons & their political mates doing a DEADWOOD on the Russian population was beyond the pale. Sometimes it takes a firm hand to bring LIGHT to the people. Different cultures & regions require different approaches. Getting pension cheques on time is important for the bulk of the Russian population. As is knowing their kids aren’t gonna be forced into the sex trade & be shipped off to Britain & elsewhere. Still goes on…but Putin & now Dmitry Medvedev are more likely to halt such trade than a Yeltsin.
Certainly plenty of deplorable things happening in Russia…like growth of white supremacy movements & abuse of Moslems etc…but we need to see the positives & not just fall into the Neo-Con, Neo-Lib, greedy multi-national corporate perspective.
Good link to Daily Kos yeti. The Guardian (UK) had some illuminating reads too.
Here’s The Guardian link:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
More articles on the conflict & potential causes here:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/
I disagree Katz.
1)Georgia will never get to be a member of Nato now that Saakashvili has blotted his copybook in trying to pull a swifty with an surprise attack (thinking that Putin was otherwise occupied in Beijing and the “vegetable” Mendevev was a softy.) Nato ‘aint ever going to war for hotheaded Georgians.
2) The US needs Russia for other major problems like Iran and after all it’s Russia’s bailiwick and the US has very little leverage generally, especially having squandered so much military and soft power for so little gain in the last decade.
3) The Ukranians, Baltic states put on notice (again) to pull their heads in.
4) German resistance to the Nato inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia is now fortified.
Strategically, I think the Russians are on a winner, and the US/West is the loser for thinking that all the “colour” revolutions were inevitable and long lasting. Georgia to use a WW2 expression is IMHO a “bridge too far”. Now the only question remaining is whether they decide to rub the west’s nose in it by rolling their tanks up to Saakashvili’s outdoor dunny, where doubtless he is, or may soon be cowering therein.
And if they do, the last corridor for a non-Russian controlled/influenced oil/gas pipeline is gone, and Russia will have Europe by an even bigger grip on the proverbial testiculars-energy wise. I’d call that a strategic win. Even if they go back to status quo, they still win. (Moral being: don’t fuck with the bear next door, ever again.)
There’s a report that some time ago, Saakashvili was talking to Putin and mentioned in glowing terms his western support. Putin was very crude and told him to stick that where the sun doesn’t shine. So it’s not as if the Georgians were unaware of Moscow’s extreme displeasure with them and the west over many things, especially the Nato gig.
I think a likely outcome is that Russia will re-draw the map and include North and South Ossetia into Russia. And with a veto at the UNSC, there’s SFA that anybody can do about it. All in all I can’t see how Russia loses in successfully pushing back against western encirclement–and they can throw back the word ‘Kosovo’ in the west’s face.
(I would however, love to have seen Putin’s expression when he heard Bush make that hypocritical crack about “respecting other nation’s sovereignty”.)
The NYT article was most illuminating, but I wanted to add a few points:
1. The Russians have a deep-seated, traditional mistrust of Georgians. “When you shake hands with a Georgian, count your fingers afterwards” sums it up. Historically, Georgians have travelled into Russia to sell luxury goods (wine, tomatoes in winter, etc), and of course the buyer always feels cheated in such deals. The Mafia and drug traders during the Soviet period were understood to be Georgian.
2. You can view the Putinites as Russian neocons, with their particular manifestation of the disease only differing from the Bushites’ because of the different histories of the two countries.
3. Damn Yanks. Of course the Georgians were cheering on the Dutch. And we barrack for whoever’s playing NZ.
The Baltic states are in a rather different situation. They’re already part of the EU and NATO.
Georgians won’t blame their President. He won his election by promising to bring the rogue provinces back under control. The Georgian citizens will blame Russia for sticking it’s nose in.
Chechnya must be no fun anymore.
I appreciate the depth of your analysis PK. It has induced me to rethink my first conclusion.
Never is a long time. I agree that Saakasvili is now a liability. But pro-NATO sentiments appear to be strong in Georgia. It is possible that after a period, a responsible pro-NATO, democratically elected figure will emerge in Georgia.
Again, true. But Bush will be gone soon and the US can renegotiate its admittedly diminished but nevertheless sustainable status in the region without the help of Russia.
True. But simply the Russian act of turning off gas supplies can already achieve this outcome.
4) German resistance to the Nato inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia is now fortified.
True. These linkages are important.
Russian demands are evolving. Regime change may indeed be on the Russian agenda. But the question remains who or what will replace Saakashvili. I doubt that Russia will feel bold enough to establish a Quisling.
I doubt this will happen.
Pablo at #8 wrote:
In fact Mikoyan was an Armenian.
More generally, this situation may show the great potential for very messy complications when the Wilsonian liberal principle of national self-determination (up to and including the right of every nation to its own state) is pursued and applied strongly in parts of the world where populations with self-defined national cultures are not neatly parcelled into discrete territories but are interspersed in enclaves within one another.
It also raises again the question of whether a lot of grief may have been avoided had Gorbachev’s plan for a reformed Soviet Union (reformed, in this instance, in terms of more equitable relations between the 15 republics, and between the republics and the central government) not been gazumped by the various republican secessionists (most notably Russia under Yeltsin) in December 1991.
The biggest worry for Georgia is not that it will lose South Ossetia - that’s already lost. It’s losing Abkhazia. Perhaps that’s why Ukraine has done this:
Is it possible that there is a connection between the fairly recent Condoleezza Rice visit to the area and the initial Georgian attack? I wonder how the Americans would feel if Russians were making such loving overtures to those on their doorstep.
http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/27258
I thought Peter Wilson’s article in the Oz today made an interesting point:
Update: [by Mark] A very informative post at Obsidian Wings.
And another interesting take at The Global Sociology Blog.
So is Australia’s interests affected in any way by the conflict? We’re not in NATO, and I don’t believe we get our oil from Azerbaijan via Georgia.
I know this is Rudd’s views on the matter:
I believe that the position of the international community, supported by Australia, is that Georgia is an independent state, its territorial sovereignty should be respected and therefore all states should exercise restraint, and that includes the Russian federation.
Fat chance.
The line that ‘numerous criticisms’ can be aimed at a ’stupid’ Shakashvili surely ignores the estimated 2000 deaths caused by an all-out attack on Sth Ossetians.
Doesn’t look like the Russians are taking any notice of anyone else’s view anyway:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121834170757727521.html?mod=rss_Page_One
You wouldn’t know it from the media coverage in the West, but Russia was *already in South Ossetia*. They’ve been playing the role of “peace-keepers” since last time the Georgians tried to reassert control over an autonomous region which has over 90% Russian citizens.
The Georgian atrocities in ‘91 look to have been repeated this time around, only on a smaller scale, with a greater disaster averted by Russia’s response (although this might be speaking too soon). A lot of coverage is making mention of “2000 casualties”, largely civilian, and then throwing the blame at Russia.
The facts are the reverse: the figure is a Russian estimate, and there are reliable accounts of Georgian troops directly shelling civilian Ossetian
areas, causing considerable casualties, and an estimated 20-30,000 refugees.
The Georgia-US/ NATO link is clearly determinative in a lot of this coverage, as well as a long-standing antipathy to Russia (and to be honest, after Grosny, is that really a surprise?).
None of this is denying, of course, that behind the whole fiasco is also Russia’s strategy of dominating the region, and preventing the eastward spread of NATO. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia uses this to decisively strengthen their grip on S. Ossetia, and on Abkhazia too, which could provide a much-sought-after Russian port on the Black Sea, and defang Georgia for a while.
But Georgia is clearly the shirt-puller in this scenario, and they’ve got their nose badly bloodied for their (rather disgusting) efforts. And, yes, my real sympathies lie with the people caught in between.
A worse scenario can be imagined too. If the Georgian military aggression in Ossetia was in response to Russian troops movements in that general direction, they may have realised that Georgian control of S. Ossetia was as good as over, and reacted in the short-lived, bloody and punitive fashion that we have just seen, “punishing” the Ossetians for wanting to secede from Georgia.
Anyway, some more interesting takes on the situation:
http://www.socialistunity.com/?p=2709
http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/08/new-cold-war-escalates.html
http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/08/putin-wins-probably.html
“Is it possible that there is a connection between the fairly recent Condoleezza Rice visit to the area and the initial Georgian attack?”
Good point joe 2.
As Russia gains from the American misadventure in Iraq & Afghanistan by way of higher petrol/gas prices, I imagine the Yanks would luv to see some of that Russian revenue/wealth dragged back into the “black hole of war”. It means that the Russian government has less funds to transfer into the safety net, health & education systems that bolster their strength w/ the public. Manufactures a heightened “cold war” that benefits many missile, security, intelligence & armament-based corporations & businesses. Possibly quite handy for the Bushevik-related businesses if Obama wins & begins to reduce the role of private contractors & American/Bush related companies in Iraq.
Could also be a push by the Neo-Cons/Dem Hawks (and their Israeli/Gulf State Lobby group allies) to demonstrate their influence in the region & the problems they can cause if Russia doesn’t support further sanctions against Iran. Imo, Condi is indeed the “black widow”. And nothing to do w/ the colour of her skin.
The sooner the majority of the “old guard” & their competitive, trauma-related & OCD approach to former Communist states are kicked out of government & regulated the better. Far too many victims of their GAMES & profiteering ventures.
Imo, there’s a bit of religious loopiness, manipulation behind this too. Plenty of images of the CROSS snuck into TV broadcasts & films these days. Check this out:
Saakashvili was sworn in as President in Tbilisi on January 25, 2004. Immediately after the ceremony he signed a decree establishing a new state flag. On January 26, in a ceremony held at the Tbilisi Kashueti Church of Saint George.
(Wiki pedia)
Check out the flag:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Flag_of_Georgia.svg
I reckon this conflict was designed to be part of a campaign by the Busheviks & their crony mates & has been in the works for a long time.
Furthermore…surprise, surprise:
Saakashvili is a popular supporter of free market and believes that less government involvement in businesses is a good idea.. During his administration Georgian economy advanced to a new level and increased tax collection after lowering the tax rates. In addition, Georgia is becoming involved in International market transactions and in 2007 Bank of Georgia sold bonds at premium, when $200m five-year bond was priced with a coupon of 9 per cent at par, or 100 per cent of face value, after initially being priced at 9.5 per cent and investors pushed orders up to $600m.
and:
In December 2006, Bank of Georgia received The Bank of The Year Award for Georgia from The Banker.
Bank of Georgia has the following credit ratings:
Standard & Poor’s: ‘B+/B’, Stable
Moody’s: ‘B3/NP’ (FC) & ‘Baa3/P-3′ (LC), Stable
Fitch Ratings: ‘B/B’, Stable
The Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Bank of Georgia, Lado Gurgenidze, was nominated, on November 16, 2007, by the President Mikheil Saakashvili as the Prime Minister to succeed Zurab Noghaideli who resigned citing poor health conditions. The supervisory board invited former Vice Chairman Nicholas Enukidze to succeed on the position of the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the BoG.
Share price of BoG peaked in July of 2007, reaching its all time high at $43 per share. Since then, the share price has been continuously declining and by the and of July 2008 shares were trading at levels lower than their original IPO price of $18.
————
It’s the credit ratings assessments that have helped create & perpetuate so much trouble related to the sub-prime crisis & credit crunch. Perhaps this is also a diversion for the Georgian government & from their financial institution links & troubles.
It would also be interesting to know what satellite images have revealed regarding resources in the South Ossetia region & surrounds.
N’
ABC News tonight had Georgian crowds ,candles, crosses and flags greeting the EU reps as per naskings comment. Shakashvili is very seriously off and he must surely be brought to account for crimes against humanity. However several meetings with Bush and Rice probably mean that the powers that be will see his actions as impetuous rather than murderous.
From Mark’s link:
Exactly, except for the parody bit–the parallels are a bit closer than Mr Rondos thinks–allowing some significant Russian propaganda/argument
Everyone:
…. And the war goes on.
Wodner how it will affect us here in Australia?
On the other hand, one could argue that Russia, envious of the US testing out new urban pacification technologies and protocols in Iraq, wants its own sandpit for such purposes. East or West, those vast, fast growing and fermenting bantustans accumulating around key metropoli are going to have to be controlled one way or another.
Russia invades a country but somehow George Bush is to blame for this, curious. There is an Australian hard left milieu that has learnt nothing. But to focus on people with real world influence, there was an opportunity after the fall of Communism to bring Russia into the family of democracies, that this did not occur is an indictment of Clinton and of Bush. Just as after 1918 the opportunity to bring Germany into the family of democracies was lost.
“Russia invades a country but somehow George Bush is to blame for this, curious.”
Hmmm, I’m not sure anyone has said that, but let’s see where you’re going with it…
“There is an Australian hard left milieu that has learnt nothing.”
Where?!?!? Lemmme at ‘em! Wait… they’re under the bed, right?
“But to focus on people with real world influence, there was an opportunity after the fall of Communism to bring Russia into the family of democracies, that this did not occur is an indictment of Clinton and of Bush. Just as after 1918 the opportunity to bring Germany into the family of democracies was lost.”
Wait, so it’s okay to blame Clinton and Bush for Russia’s failure to embrace democracy? And this was just like what happened after WW1?
You sound a bit confused Geoff.
When countries with large armies play oil & gas politics it never pays to be standing somewhere in the middle.