Hmmm, I’m not sure anyone has said that, but let’s see where you’re going with it…

“There is an Australian hard left milieu that has learnt nothing.”

Where?!?!? Lemmme at ‘em! Wait… they’re under the bed, right?

“But to focus on people with real world influence, there was an opportunity after the fall of Communism to bring Russia into the family of democracies, that this did not occur is an indictment of Clinton and of Bush. Just as after 1918 the opportunity to bring Germany into the family of democracies was lost.”

Wait, so it’s okay to blame Clinton and Bush for Russia’s failure to embrace democracy? And this was just like what happened after WW1?

You sound a bit confused Geoff.

…. And the war goes on.

Wodner how it will affect us here in Australia?

Russia wants to serve up to the West a textbook copy of what the West did to Serbia, but of course it’s a ghastly parody,” said Alex Rondos, a former Greek diplomat who was involved in the Yugoslav case.

Exactly, except for the parody bit–the parallels are a bit closer than Mr Rondos thinks–allowing some significant Russian propaganda/argument

Good point joe 2.

As Russia gains from the American misadventure in Iraq & Afghanistan by way of higher petrol/gas prices, I imagine the Yanks would luv to see some of that Russian revenue/wealth dragged back into the “black hole of war”. It means that the Russian government has less funds to transfer into the safety net, health & education systems that bolster their strength w/ the public. Manufactures a heightened “cold war” that benefits many missile, security, intelligence & armament-based corporations & businesses. Possibly quite handy for the Bushevik-related businesses if Obama wins & begins to reduce the role of private contractors & American/Bush related companies in Iraq.

Could also be a push by the Neo-Cons/Dem Hawks (and their Israeli/Gulf State Lobby group allies) to demonstrate their influence in the region & the problems they can cause if Russia doesn’t support further sanctions against Iran. Imo, Condi is indeed the “black widow”. And nothing to do w/ the colour of her skin.

The sooner the majority of the “old guard” & their competitive, trauma-related & OCD approach to former Communist states are kicked out of government & regulated the better. Far too many victims of their GAMES & profiteering ventures.

Imo, there’s a bit of religious loopiness, manipulation behind this too. Plenty of images of the CROSS snuck into TV broadcasts & films these days. Check this out:

Saakashvili was sworn in as President in Tbilisi on January 25, 2004. Immediately after the ceremony he signed a decree establishing a new state flag. On January 26, in a ceremony held at the Tbilisi Kashueti Church of Saint George.
(Wiki pedia)

Check out the flag:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Flag_of_Georgia.svg

I reckon this conflict was designed to be part of a campaign by the Busheviks & their crony mates & has been in the works for a long time.

Furthermore…surprise, surprise:

Saakashvili is a popular supporter of free market and believes that less government involvement in businesses is a good idea.. During his administration Georgian economy advanced to a new level and increased tax collection after lowering the tax rates. In addition, Georgia is becoming involved in International market transactions and in 2007 Bank of Georgia sold bonds at premium, when $200m five-year bond was priced with a coupon of 9 per cent at par, or 100 per cent of face value, after initially being priced at 9.5 per cent and investors pushed orders up to $600m.

and:

In December 2006, Bank of Georgia received The Bank of The Year Award for Georgia from The Banker.

Bank of Georgia has the following credit ratings:

Standard & Poor’s: ‘B+/B’, Stable

Moody’s: ‘B3/NP’ (FC) & ‘Baa3/P-3′ (LC), Stable

Fitch Ratings: ‘B/B’, Stable

The Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Bank of Georgia, Lado Gurgenidze, was nominated, on November 16, 2007, by the President Mikheil Saakashvili as the Prime Minister to succeed Zurab Noghaideli who resigned citing poor health conditions. The supervisory board invited former Vice Chairman Nicholas Enukidze to succeed on the position of the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the BoG.

Share price of BoG peaked in July of 2007, reaching its all time high at $43 per share. Since then, the share price has been continuously declining and by the and of July 2008 shares were trading at levels lower than their original IPO price of $18.
————
It’s the credit ratings assessments that have helped create & perpetuate so much trouble related to the sub-prime crisis & credit crunch. Perhaps this is also a diversion for the Georgian government & from their financial institution links & troubles.

It would also be interesting to know what satellite images have revealed regarding resources in the South Ossetia region & surrounds.
N’

The Georgian atrocities in ‘91 look to have been repeated this time around, only on a smaller scale, with a greater disaster averted by Russia’s response (although this might be speaking too soon). A lot of coverage is making mention of “2000 casualties”, largely civilian, and then throwing the blame at Russia.

The facts are the reverse: the figure is a Russian estimate, and there are reliable accounts of Georgian troops directly shelling civilian Ossetian
areas, causing considerable casualties, and an estimated 20-30,000 refugees.

The Georgia-US/ NATO link is clearly determinative in a lot of this coverage, as well as a long-standing antipathy to Russia (and to be honest, after Grosny, is that really a surprise?).

None of this is denying, of course, that behind the whole fiasco is also Russia’s strategy of dominating the region, and preventing the eastward spread of NATO. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia uses this to decisively strengthen their grip on S. Ossetia, and on Abkhazia too, which could provide a much-sought-after Russian port on the Black Sea, and defang Georgia for a while.

But Georgia is clearly the shirt-puller in this scenario, and they’ve got their nose badly bloodied for their (rather disgusting) efforts. And, yes, my real sympathies lie with the people caught in between.

A worse scenario can be imagined too. If the Georgian military aggression in Ossetia was in response to Russian troops movements in that general direction, they may have realised that Georgian control of S. Ossetia was as good as over, and reacted in the short-lived, bloody and punitive fashion that we have just seen, “punishing” the Ossetians for wanting to secede from Georgia.

Anyway, some more interesting takes on the situation:
http://www.socialistunity.com/?p=2709
http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/08/new-cold-war-escalates.html
http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/08/putin-wins-probably.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121834170757727521.html?mod=rss_Page_One

I know this is Rudd’s views on the matter:

I believe that the position of the international community, supported by Australia, is that Georgia is an independent state, its territorial sovereignty should be respected and therefore all states should exercise restraint, and that includes the Russian federation.

Fat chance.

THE European and US envoys who rushed to Georgia on the weekend to try to end the bloodshed were confronted by one of the deadliest situations in diplomacy - a David versus Goliath tangle in which everybody thinks they are David.

The danger of this war comes from the fact that each protagonist is driven not by confidence in their own strength but by the opposite — fear, insecurity and a belief that they are under threat from a relentless foe.

The tiny breakaway region of South Ossetia, with just 70,000 people, and their fellow rebels in Abkhazia, another impoverished region of only 250,000, feel massively outgunned by Georgia’s 4.4million people and their US-trained army.

For their part, the Georgians feel intimidated by their giant neighbour, Russia, which has long propped up the breakaway regions and is now sending tanks, jets and troops on to Georgian soil.

Moscow still views the world through the prism of the Cold War and is convinced it has to make a stand in Georgia against an overwhelmingly powerful and increasingly aggressive Western alliance that it fears is hemming in Russia and stirring up trouble among its neighbours from Serbia and Kosovo to Georgia and Ukraine.

And even Russia’s American and European rivals do not see themselves as the Goliaths that the Russians imagine. They perceive Russia as a rising energy superpower which already has a tight grip on gas and oil flows to Europe, and is now trying to stomp on any neighbours that refuse to do its bidding.

http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/27258

Ukraine warned Russia on Sunday it could bar Russian navy ships from returning to their base in the Crimea because of their deployment to Georgia’s coast.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said the deployment of a Russian naval squadron to Georgia’s Black sea coast has the potential of drawing Ukraine into the conflict.

“In order to prevent the circumstances in which Ukraine could be drawn into a military conflict … Ukraine reserves the right to bar ships which may take part in these actions from returning to the Ukrainian territory until the conflict is solved,” said the statement which was posted on the ministry’s Web site.

Both Ukraine and Georgia have sought to free themselves of Russia’s influence, integrate into the West and join NATO.

Stalin was a Georgian as too were Mikoyan and Shevadznage.

In fact Mikoyan was an Armenian.

More generally, this situation may show the great potential for very messy complications when the Wilsonian liberal principle of national self-determination (up to and including the right of every nation to its own state) is pursued and applied strongly in parts of the world where populations with self-defined national cultures are not neatly parcelled into discrete territories but are interspersed in enclaves within one another.

It also raises again the question of whether a lot of grief may have been avoided had Gorbachev’s plan for a reformed Soviet Union (reformed, in this instance, in terms of more equitable relations between the 15 republics, and between the republics and the central government) not been gazumped by the various republican secessionists (most notably Russia under Yeltsin) in December 1991.

1)Georgia will never get to be a member of Nato now that Saakashvili has blotted his copybook in trying to pull a swifty with an surprise attack (thinking that Putin was otherwise occupied in Beijing and the “vegetable” Mendevev was a softy.) Nato ‘aint ever going to war for hotheaded Georgians.

Never is a long time. I agree that Saakasvili is now a liability. But pro-NATO sentiments appear to be strong in Georgia. It is possible that after a period, a responsible pro-NATO, democratically elected figure will emerge in Georgia.

2) The US needs Russia for other major problems like Iran and after all it’s Russia’s bailiwick and the US has very little leverage generally, especially having squandered so much military and soft power for so little gain in the last decade.

Again, true. But Bush will be gone soon and the US can renegotiate its admittedly diminished but nevertheless sustainable status in the region without the help of Russia.

3) The Ukranians, Baltic states put on notice (again) to pull their heads in.

True. But simply the Russian act of turning off gas supplies can already achieve this outcome.

4) German resistance to the Nato inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia is now fortified.

True. These linkages are important.

Strategically, I think the Russians are on a winner, and the US/West is the loser for thinking that all the “colour” revolutions were inevitable and long lasting. Georgia to use a WW2 expression is IMHO a “bridge too far”. Now the only question remaining is whether they decide to rub the west’s nose in it by rolling their tanks up to Saakashvili’s outdoor dunny, where doubtless he is, or may soon be cowering therein.

Russian demands are evolving. Regime change may indeed be on the Russian agenda. But the question remains who or what will replace Saakashvili. I doubt that Russia will feel bold enough to establish a Quisling.

And if they do, the last corridor for a non-Russian controlled/influenced oil/gas pipeline is gone, and Russia will have Europe by an even bigger grip on the proverbial testiculars-energy wise. I’d call that a strategic win. Even if they go back to status quo, they still win. (Moral being: don’t fuck with the bear next door, ever again.)

I doubt this will happen.