Larvatus Prodeo

There are some interesting power games and shifts happening in WA politics at the moment, which make this state election slightly more interesting than it would otherwise be. I’m sure they will have very little effect on the outcome of the election (I’m sure Mr Poll Bludger can confirm or correct me here) although some of them may have an effect on the dynamics of the government afterwards.

CCC investigations have lead to some upheaval in the ranks of the Carpenter Government. Tony McRae, John Bowler, Norm Marlborough and John Dorazio were all forced to resign from the Ministry. Forced resignations from the Labor Party, too: Dorazio, Bowler and Marlborough, Brian Burke, Julian Grill (who was actually expelled) and Shelley Archer, who refused to agree to cut ties with Burke.

The resignation of Shelley Archer, which came after the expulsion of Assistant Secretary Joe McDonald, lead to CFMEU Secretary Kevin Reynolds, husband of Ms Archer, announcing that he would resign from the ALP as well. While in practice the CFMEU (who made up the majority of the centre faction since the TWU started working with the Right) rarely turned out their numbers, the resignation of Reynolds would largely mean the death of the third major faction on paper, especially considering that it had done little in the way of encouraging new generations of factional “warriors” to take over the job. (Although the upcoming elections may change all of that, with the first genuine threat to Reynolds in years looking to take control of the union.)

The New Right, which had no union backing, lost its two main “recruiters” in Dorazio and Batong Pham (to a serious illness which he is now recovering from). Pham, who remained a part-time electorate officer for Dorazio even once the latter was forced out the party, took a seat in the Legislative Council when Louise Pratt resigned to contest the Federal election. His loyalties to Dorazio, his illness, and anger at being overlooked for preselection twice in a row, meant that he would have done very little to keep up the faction’s numbers. (I’m sure that the new rules forcing members to pay for their own memberships in person had absolutely nothing to do with it…)

As expected, the Misso majority of the left eventually did a deal with the SDA-aligned right to do a preselection deal which pretty much locked out anyone not in favour with these two groups, or blessed with an endorsement by the Premier.

All of this internal upheaval is being reflected in the number of external challenges to the ALP in the form of independent former Labor MPs. Shelley Archer has announced that she will run as an independent for the Mining and Pastoral Region. This was a somewhat surprising announcement, as the general consensus was that she was going to challenge Carol Martin in the lower house seat of Kimberley. However it does suggest that she wants to be more of a constant thorn in the government’s side, rather than a more visible, but largely powerless, independent lower house MP.

John Dorazio, who forced his way back into the ALP for a couple of months, only to resign again after it became clear he would not win ALP endorsement, is running against former journo Reece Whitby in Morley, hoping either to use his alleged popularity as local member and former Mayor to win the seat, help Labor lose the seat, or some other thing that I’m sure is not dodgy at all.

Bob Kucera, who was forced out of the Ministry when Gallop was still Premier over a minor scandal involving shares, was overlooked for one of the two seats created from his current one of Yokine. He, too, resigned from the party after his loss, and is still leaving his options open. He has the choice of running for the more marginal seat of Mt Lawley, which covers the majority of his old seat, or the safe Labor seat of Nollamara. As William Bowe and Antony Green explain, he would have more of a chance in the safer seat of Nollamara, but to be frank he probably has little chance in either. Kucera has expressed anger at Carpenter allegedly telling him that he was “too old” to run again, and has also claimed that he is upset on behalf of his constituents about “parachuted” candidates. These moments are rare, but I found myself in agreement with State Secretary Bill Johnston, who pointed out that former police chief Kucera was also a parachuted candidate. We’ll know by Friday what he is going to do.

Carpenter’s efforts to keep a strong hold on the WA Labor government, leading to his reputation as a bit of a dictator, can probably be attributed to three main factors: his need to cement his authority in the absence of a general election win, his isolation as a non-factional MP, and also an attempt to correct what appears to be one of his biggest mistakes early on in lifting Gallop’s ban on his ministers meeting with Burke and Grill. Whether it continues should he get the legitimacy that comes from winning an election in his own right remains to be seen. His success in having all of his demands met in the latest preselection round (including his own chief of staff) may partly alleviate his problems with isolation, given the numbers in caucus who will owe their positions to him. However, his isolation is not just due to a lack of friends - it’s also due to a lack of first-hand knowledge of the history and minutiae of WA factional workings, and given the speed with which he overturned Gallop’s Burke and Marlborough bans, and his promotion of Dorazio as a “rising star”, he may also lack the inclination to learn them.

So, lots of excitement this election season, but in the end, I doubt that much of it will make any difference to anyone but the players involved. Still, I guess that kind of makes the “Stability” part of the campaign slogan technically true. I’ll get back to you once I locate the vision and leadership…

*Not sure which ones, though: Musical Chairs? Pin the Tail on the Donkey?

Update: I missed this before I pressed publish, but perhaps the stability thing isn’t as much of a given as I claimed, either!!

In a column in The West Australian newspaper, former WA Labor MP and party secretary John Halden said Ben Wyatt, a Labor MP for the Perth electorate of Victoria Park, would be premier in four years.

“The government has its centrepiece Building WA, a package of infrastructure projects with such long lead times that many won’t come to fruition until its time to vote again in another four years, when Victoria Park MLA Ben Wyatt is premier,” Mr Halden wrote.