Comments on: Guest post by Possum Comitatus: Betting markets in the absence of the polls http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/ Blogging politics, culture, sociology and life from Brisvegas Fri, 09 Jan 2009 22:25:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Enemy Combatant http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495100 Enemy Combatant Tue, 12 Aug 2008 08:13:04 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495100 PC: <blockquote>"And at the end of the day, isn’t observable reality what all good political commentary should be about?"</blockquote> In the fullness of time you are indeed veracious, Possum. Empirical correctness is its own reward. http://www.superbrands.com.au/images/logos/30.jpg Without the guidance of so much as a feral poll, the bookies were certainly way off the mark in setting their field. ALP-backing punters still collected but the odds were miserly. The prohibititive odds would have deterred all but the most determined punters. Apart from the savage slur upon their psephological finesse, maybe the bagmen didn't have such a bad election afterall. PC:
“And at the end of the day, isn’t observable reality what all good political commentary should be about?”

In the fullness of time you are indeed veracious, Possum.
Empirical correctness is its own reward.
http://www.superbrands.com.au/images/logos/30.jpg

Without the guidance of so much as a feral poll, the bookies were certainly way off the mark in setting their field. ALP-backing punters still collected but the odds were miserly. The prohibititive odds would have deterred all but the most determined punters. Apart from the savage slur upon their psephological finesse, maybe the bagmen didn’t have such a bad election afterall.

]]> By: wbb http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495076 wbb Tue, 12 Aug 2008 06:25:50 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495076 <blockquote>Good information makes good markets, and there is no better information than good, independent polling.</blockquote> Is there an alternate proposition to this being advanced by anybody?

Good information makes good markets, and there is no better information than good, independent polling.

Is there an alternate proposition to this being advanced by anybody?

]]> By: professor rat http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495074 professor rat Tue, 12 Aug 2008 06:19:32 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495074 In fairness to the markets shouldn't they be given a chance to be tracked over time? As opposed to snapshot-analysis I mean. These markets are young and dynamic. They need a dynamic tracking analysis imho. By way of analogy - if you took the state of the netroots out of context and froze it for all time then the lunar-right blogosphere would still be on top. You remember the Rathergate crowd of 2005. Markets are becoming an increasingly maligned phenomenon I notice today*. But darlings I will still go to the barricades for them AND any convenient common means of exchange anyday. I hope plenty of other libertarian and democratic socialists will too - and avoid market bashers like the plague on the market they are. *Sear Galbraith In fairness to the markets shouldn’t they be given a chance to be tracked over time?
As opposed to snapshot-analysis I mean. These markets are young and dynamic. They need a dynamic tracking analysis imho. By way of analogy - if you took the state of the netroots out of context and froze it for all time then the lunar-right blogosphere would still be on top. You remember the Rathergate crowd of 2005.

Markets are becoming an increasingly maligned phenomenon I notice today*. But darlings I will still go to the barricades for them AND any convenient common means of exchange anyday.
I hope plenty of other libertarian and democratic socialists will too - and avoid market bashers like the plague on the market they are.

*Sear Galbraith

]]> By: Ambigulous http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495060 Ambigulous Tue, 12 Aug 2008 05:26:06 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495060 As much as political polling is scorned as reducing important political issues down to little more than horse race commentary, it fulfills one fundamentally important role — it stops people talking sh-t. haiku-san, I too was drawn like a blowfly to bullcrap.... to this very sentence. Those words are exquisitely written, but I'm sorry to say that they seem to me a tad optimistic. Empirical observation leads me to suspect that there is NO social force or social institution, which can "stop people talking sh-t". If people stopped talking sh-t, they wouldn't be people any more. Nowt queer as folks. sayonara As much as political polling is scorned as reducing important political issues down to little more than horse race commentary, it fulfills one fundamentally important role — it stops people talking sh-t.

haiku-san, I too was drawn like a blowfly to bullcrap…. to this very sentence.

Those words are exquisitely written, but I’m sorry to say that they seem to me a tad optimistic.

Empirical observation leads me to suspect that there is NO social force or social institution, which can “stop people talking sh-t”. If people stopped talking sh-t, they wouldn’t be people any more. Nowt queer as folks.

sayonara

]]> By: Fine http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495056 Fine Tue, 12 Aug 2008 04:55:09 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-495056 Good information makes good markets. It's a basic rule of horseracing too and explains why the bookies have it over the punter. Better information with which to frame their markets. Good information makes good markets.

It’s a basic rule of horseracing too and explains why the bookies have it over the punter. Better information with which to frame their markets.

]]> By: haiku http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-494948 haiku Mon, 11 Aug 2008 20:48:18 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-494948 ... which is alluded to in the very next sentence. Sorry, should read the whole thing before posting ... … which is alluded to in the very next sentence. Sorry, should read the whole thing before posting …

]]> By: haiku http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-494947 haiku Mon, 11 Aug 2008 20:45:52 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/12/guest-post-by-possum-comitatus-betting-markets-in-the-absence-of-the-polls/#comment-494947 <blockquote>As much as political polling is scorned as reducing important political issues down to little more than horse race commentary, it fulfills one fundamentally important role — it stops people talking sh-t.</blockquote> It doesn't stop everyone. Christopher Pearson, for example - recipient of Possum's most famous smackdown!

As much as political polling is scorned as reducing important political issues down to little more than horse race commentary, it fulfills one fundamentally important role — it stops people talking sh-t.

It doesn’t stop everyone. Christopher Pearson, for example - recipient of Possum’s most famous smackdown!

]]>