I was very interested to watch interviews with both Alan Carpenter and Brendon Grylls on the 7 30 Report tonight. The punditariat - and Kerry O’Brien - seem to have no awareness of the specific history of the WA Nationals (whose former leader Hendy Cowan was much less socially conservative than his federal counterparts, and whose conference this year supported same sex civil unions) or indeed what occurred during the campaign. The lazy assumption that the Nats will jump to install Colin Barnett ignores, for instance, the bad blood that was signalled by Barnett refusing to meet Grylls during the lead up to the election, not to mention Grylls’ explicit statements about negotiating with both major parties. This is just speculation, but my feeling was that Grylls has an incentive to go with Labor to demonstrate that the Nats’ independence is genuine. This may well be very interesting.
25 Responses to “Not over yet?”
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Interesting interview. If Grylls has more lofty ambitions (at the federal level) then he might well consider a ‘pork’ deal with Labor and really stress his party’s independence’.
But I think that’s unlikely. In the final wash up, he will screw the Liberals for all he can get and remain a local hero.
I reckon another Labor government is still on the cards in WA, as well.
Can we just hope Grylls gets a little bit of ‘time out’. He seemed far from relaxed and comfortable.
Well….
“Western Australian Premier Alan Carpenter says he has been contemplating an alliance with the Nationals since the beginning of the year.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/08/2358883.htm?section=justin
So the NATS have had some time to think about the taste of it for a while.
It’s hard to imagine. There would have to be enormous pressure on both Grylls and Barnett to do a deal from their respective federal leadership. But then, that federal leadership isn’t in a position to offer him much at the moment.
From a good governance perspective, I hate to think how much pork he’s going to extract. Expect the Western Australian version of bridges to nowhere…
The WA saga (and Lynne) has produced a couple of funny moments.
1st was the libs bitterly complaining about Carpenter going early, then Nelson pipes up saying that NSW should go early.
2nd Barnaby saying Lynne was a good result as a former nat candidate got 75% of the vote and the current nat candidate got the other 25%. Reminded me of that Qld cop about 15 or so years ago who said ” this is the most potent dope we have ever encountered.”
As you said interesting times ahead till we know what is going to happen.
And an interesting bit of Trivia, the National’s member for Moore Grant Woodhams (whose previous seat of Greenough was abolished in the redistribution) attended Albany High School with Alan Carpenter and worked with him at both Ch 7 & the ABC before they both entered Parliament.
And here’s a pic of Mr Woodhams with a bong shirt on.
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/05/08/bad-gin-2/
Whether all the states go down in flames barely matters to our King Kruddy.
He eschewed his usual micro-management in his rise-and-rise… and so has little invested in the states either way. His doppelganger Johannes Voerward also pulled off the same trick… and had all the ALP chooks eating out of his red-right hand.
This doesn’t mean there is no crisis of social-democracy though - it actually even underlines it. There is a howling, cynical, nihilist, black-hole where the light-on -the-hill should be. King Kruddy the First remains the fucking Howard yr having when yr not having a fucking Howard.
Oh political rose thou art sick!
It all hangs together really, both Mark’s posts: they ARE dead while wed to the Libs, as they (essentially) are on the east coast. Thats why I agree - watch this space in WA. Its the perfect time to show some independence too - the Libs have never been a bigger bunch of losers in a national sense. What have got to lose? its not like there’s ministries at stake anywhere on the continent.
Again, crap performance from all parties in WA except the minors. Public disaffection with longstanding and inept ALP govts is just not translating into LNP support.
“From a good governance perspective, I hate to think how much pork he’s going to extract.”
It is good to remember that the Bracks’ team clipped into government because they remembered the rural constituency that they were born in.
Not “pork” but vote winning.
Remember too that there is still a possibility of Labor forming government WITHOUT the support of the Nationals (but with the support of Adams and Bowler). This will require that they stay in front in those too-close-to-call seats that they currently lead in: a minority Labor govt without Nats is on the cards.
But Carpenter seemed to be saying that even if that transpired, he’d still prefer to have the Nats in the tent.
And frankly, with a Federal ALP govt - Grylls must be thinking that’s the way to really barrel his pork. He can offer Rudd another 12 month shot at cooperative federalism, in return for… well, he could just about name the price.
Seriously, what exactly will WA regions get out of a LNP govt? Squat!
Its official: I’m putting $10 on Grylls going with Carpenter.
Barnett was reported on ABC as offering Grylls the deputy premiership. Big mistake I think. What’s special about the deputy’s job other than the vanity factor. Grylls should only agree if the treasury goes with it.
The thing is Kim @12 , Carpenter would accept anyone under the flaps, as long they did not utter the two words, Brian Bourke.
It would be worth Rudd’s while to separate the NATS from the Libs if given the opportunity - like it exists now. Puts a wedge further in the door to having some cooperation from federal NATS. Federally they are the reserve grade Liberal party.
RKL - I don’t think it’s likely that Labor will win enough of those seats. But even if they did, with CCC reports hanging over their heads, you’d want to make sure you weren’t a couple of by-elections away from a change of government.
Pablo at 14
What’s special about the deputy’s job other than the vanity factor
Well, Barnett was Deputy Premier under Richard Court after all
rf at 18. They’re both Libs. My reading of Grylls is that he would regard it as a cheap bribe with no real meaning. But it is just my opinion.
yes, TP: if I were Rudd, Id have my people let Grylls’ people know they can get me on the phone this week.
I’m surprised that no one has joined the dots yet - but then again, maybe they have and they don’t want to think about the Ace card that only the Liberal Party can play to make all this happen.
So how does a proposed new WA Liberal government come up with $700M additional to what has been budgeted and already promised? How could they? And how do they do it in such a way that keeps everyone but the Labor Party/Greens happy?
There is a way IMO for the Libs to do this deal with the Nats - and it’s something that Labor can’t do, given their expressed views and Party stand point.
The Libs have obviously been given the ‘Go’ card on Uranium Mining by the electorate, and as this will be the new boom business with new money and new royalties coming in, $700 million in ‘Royalties for Regions’ is realistically and readily achievable. Nobody I know has joined the dots yet, but to me this would be the most appropriate and most acceptable solution moving forward for all concerned. I have done extensive research on this (Uranium Mining) subject over many years now.
The Uranium Mining ventures just raring to go in WA are bountiful, and there is huge money at stake for all concerned. Approved supply contracts have been signed and approved with the Indians and the Chinese at Federal Govt. level and WA is sitting on more Uranium than the rest of Australia combined. We know that already!
Obviously due-dilligence and worlds best practice standards must be attained and this will take time with the likelihood royalties would begin to generate in around 3 years time if they hit the ‘Go’ button now. The Nats would not likely be expecting a cheque for $700M tomorrow after all.
joe2: I dunno. It smells a hell of a lot like pork to me most of the time.
At some point, I’d love to tell in some detail the story of the Albury bypass. It was delayed for decades because the locals wanted a gold-plated solution. There’s no sense that there’s not an unlimited pot of money to provide it.
Unfortunatly Wayne@21 you are probably right. The general concensus (i.e. opinion polls) prior to the election was that uranium mining was on the nose. Carps wouldn’t have come out so strongly against it if it wasn’t so. But WA being what it is the electorate may have installed the party that promises to do precisely what they majority don’t want. The ignorance is stunning.
“Obviously due-dilligence and worlds best practice standards”@21
Going forward, into the future, ….
Interestingly, every time Grylls mentioned Labor and the Liberals, he mentioned them in that order, and ditto with Carpenter and Barnett. I thought that was quite interesting and potentially revealing. My bet is he’ll support Carpenter to form government in coalition with Labor.