With the news that John McCain has now hit 50% in the Gallup poll, opening up a 4 point lead over Barack Obama, I thought it might be worth mentioning a few cautions about interpreting both American polls and the race as a whole – because there are significant differences from Australian elections folks don’t always take into account.
(1) Polling is much less reliable in the US than in Australia because of the voluntary voting factor. Polls tend to try to sample either registered voters or use various metrics to sample those whom they predict will vote, but all this is quite difficult and it’s worth remembering that in most states, registration is open until October. In some states you can register on voting day itself. So one result of this is often significant disagreement between various polls, which you can see in spades at the moment. But one conclusion you can draw is that there’s a lot of volatility around at the moment. Many voters won’t make up their minds til after the various debates, and some won’t until Election Day itself, and the same for whether to vote at all. The Gallup tracking poll I mentioned actually gives us two numbers – 50/46 to McCain among registered voters and a much bigger gap of 54/44 among likely voters.
(2) The Presidential election is not a national election. It’s the aggregate of 50 state elections which are more or less important depending on the number of electoral college votes each state has and whether they’re hotly contested or not. So national polls might be misleading, although they can show where the momentum is. For instance, at the moment, while the Gallup poll shows McCain with either a slim or a huge lead, Republican strategists have the McCain/Palin ticket behind or at par in most of the swing states.
(3) There isn’t as homogenous a “swinging vote” as there is in Australia. Partly again it’s voluntary voting. Many of those who aren’t enthusiastic about the choice won’t choose. But each state also has its own demographics and local political culture. So there are multiple groups and demographics “in the middle” campaigns have to appeal to – Obama’s problem is that he doesn’t necessarily have enough of the “Reagan Democrats” in some of the rustbelt states that returned to the Democrats in the Congressional elections in 2006. And “it’s the economy, stupid” doesn’t mean the same thing as it does in Australia. Remember Bill Clinton’s big promise was a middle class tax cut. American voters are – on the whole – far more resistant to state intervention than Australians are, and very open to a narrative of getting the state out of the way – so McCain is cleverly mounting a conservative critique of the Bush administration, incoherent as big tax cuts and being a deficit hawk is. But the opposition to “earmarks” is a feather in his cap. I’m not so sure what Obama’s economic narrative is, aside from the supply side human capital stuff, but he’s going to have to define it better and do that soon.
There are also a stack of other factors that both intersect with and trump economic troubles.
Update: There’s a good discussion of the latest polls at Salon.
If you look at the size of the change from goodly Obama lead to an even better McCain lead in a very short time you would have to think Americans schizophrenic or very easiest people in the world to sway. Which should mean they can blow back the other way just as easy.
In other words it doesn’t seem credible that there could be such a massive change in voter intention. But i guess we can at least say McCain has got some useful bounce from the convention and Ms Hanson.
Im starting to worry about the ability of the Obama campaign to counter the GOP smear machine. He is too reluctant of running a negative campaign against McCain despite them already going negative over him, the RNC even had advertisments attacking his wife. Obama needs to play dirty and highlight that McCains former economic adviser (the “Mental Recession” guy) is responsible for the derugalation that caused this current mess.
But he doesnt want to be seen as the negative so he wont throw a punch, it is looking weak.
I think Obama’s really got to do something to change the race’s dynamics really soon. At this stage, he’s just not looking all that good.
It’s interesting to see if you find the longer version of the Gallup poll that the choice of Palin polarised voters and had a big impact, while the selection of Biden basically produced a yawn.
Meh, wait a week.
Sorry,
but actually tha USA Today/Gallup poll mentioned is not the tracking poll. (Although tha latter showed a significant bounce too). It is a “conventional” poll, with a much smaller sample size, maybe with other weighting methodes. It happend earlier that the USA Today published a cut out piece of the Gallup Tracking as an independent poll, but this time the sample size (1022) with the period of interviewing (three consecutive days) suggests that the poll is a separate one, not part of the tracking series.
Anyway, your caveats remain worth to remember.
Oops, my mistake! Thanks for that – I’ll correct the post.
“American voters are – on the whole – far more resistant to state intervention than Australians are, and very open to a narrative of getting the state out of the way”
That said, its actually unconstitutional to nationalise a bank in Australia. Not so in the US it seems!
And speaking of that – doesnt the mortgage bust play the way of the democrats??
I do agree with Kim about Obama needing to make more of the running though; in fact, right about nowish would be good.
Well, if they take advantage of it properly. But many of the voters actually affected personally are the very same ones who aren’t sold on Obama.
McCain is probably the only Republican who could win this year. The unanswered question is whether Obama is the only Democrat who could lose.
Well, he’s in trouble if the US electorate are really just Shy Tories.
Am glad you contributed above, Kim. Otherwise I might have began to wonder if Americans were not pathologically, congenitally stupid and malicious, but deliberately so.
Leinad, what I see as the wild card is The Shy Tories factor, writ large.
Many conservatives stated they were sitting this election out altogether. That changed with Sarah P.
Obama is on the back foot, unhappily explaining again and again, “I am not running against her, I am running against John McCain.”
Except, he isn’t. He is being forced to run against her and not doing well at it.
The entire dynamics of the race have changed.
He could use some new advisors.
Even the NYT has a puff piece out on her today.
For those interested in more detail, you may like the below links.
RealClearPolitics
A rolling average of a number of polls scroll down for trends, recent media coverage and older polls
The current electoral breakdown (includes a map showing the number of electors per each state)
Sic Transit McCainmentum.
There was a post on a US blog in the last couple of days — I thought it was Feministing or Pandagon but I can’t find it again — which had the numbers of newly registered voters and their declared affiliation for the states that record that info and the Dems were *massively* ahead of the Republicans, who were in negative territory in some states. I didn’t study it intensely so I may be missing nuance and it depends on which states of course but anyway that is another factor. I’ll keep trying to dig it up from the depth of my three-days-ago memory black hole …
I think it is too early to declare Palin either way — once/if she starts talking to the media she is on thin ice I reckon. She’s already made a ambiguous statement about the mortgage situation that could indicate a lack of basic understanding. Pity this ABC interview will probably be mostly softball biography waffle.
You can only shake your head.
Over the past few years, the median American’s income has stayed stagnant. They’re stuck in a war they can’t win, that has cost them a couple of trillion dollars, not to mention thousands more permanently disabled, and their international reputation shredded.
They’ve made zero progress on tackling the fundamental imbalances in their economy, which has come to bite them on the arse, badly.
And they might just vote back in more of the same.
“And they might just vote back in more of the same.”
Which goes to show that they are not quite ‘there’ yet in understanding. The first stage of grief is denial after all.
Interesting that the animal spirits now look to the State in both the UK and the US to rescue their brio. First North Rock, and now Fannie and Freddie May and Mac. Tut tut. Whatever happened to ‘moral hazard’ Oh that’s right. That only applies to those that must be constantly required to remember their obligations.
When you ‘own’ the system, you just ‘know’ the right thing to do.
“And speaking of that – doesnt the mortgage bust play the way of the democrats??”
I saw Obama on this subject and his response was measured and intelligent. Saw him talk about Palin and he was reasonable and fair.
The guy needs to have a good hard look at himself. He is running President, for gods sake.
Is it just me, or do others see ‘the American voter’ as a big dumb animal standing by a highway at night: skittish, and easily spooked in running straight into the headlights?
Moose?
http://www.statesymbolsusa.org/IMAGES/Alaska/MOOSE.jpg
Lefty E,
This perception is pretty common outside the USA – their tourists get extremely defensive and push thier views way out beyond normal polite conversation when they hear something they don’t like. The problem I think is that so few of them travel outside the USA that the “stunned skippy in spotlights” look comes over as soon as they land in “alien” territory and doesn’t leave until they’re back stateside.
Given the “Tampa” incident I’d say a lot of Aussies can still have their buttons pushed easily as well (less so for the younger generations).
It’s a funny thing, but all the Americans I’ve come across in Australia (tourists, students, visiting scholars, etc.) have been liberal Democrats, including one whose family agonised over whether to vote for Nader or Gore in 2000 before deciding that their ethic of political responsibility (in the context of the US electoral system) trumped their ethic of conviction (which was solidly green).
To give the Australian voter some credit, for most of them, their financial circumstances did improve during the Howard era.
That’s not the case for the average American voter. They really are no better off – or, at most, very, very marginally better off, now than they were eight years ago.
Paul, an American with a passport is by definition unrepresentative. I think passport registration runs at something like 5-10% of the population.
I met one lovely family who vote purely on the basis of who is anti-abortion. The anti-abortion candidate, regardless of their party and other policies, gets their vote every time, and they vote every time. They said they could live with everything else, but not abortion.
“Paul, an American with a passport is by definition unrepresentative. I think passport registration runs at something like 5-10% of the population.”
.
Link to discussion about the myths of how many people in USA have passports and why.
.
http://www.gyford.com/phil/writing/2003/01/31/how_many_america.php
I’m coming around to the opinion that a McCain administration would be entertaining, as was the Bush administration once it became clear that Bush was less evil than he was incompetent.
Folks who expect Obama to match his record in office to his rhetoric will be sadly disappointed.
Perhaps a McCain victory has compensations.
Thanks Murph – still sounds v low at (maybe) 20%, and as a comment there notes – how many of those passport holders are recently naturalised US citzens?
Don’t forget Lefty that the yanks can do quite a bit of traveling without a passport. The rules have changed a bit recently but you used to be able to travel to Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean without one. Also the US is a huge country with tons of places to visit (much more so than Aus – which is roughly the same size) with spectacular scenery etc. We visited a small part of the US a while ago (canyon county in Utah) and spent 2 weeks just in one smallish area and still felt we had missed a lot.
“Folks who expect Obama to match his record in office to his rhetoric will be sadly disappointed”
That is not quite true. If you listen to his rhetoric, it is nothing if not ‘windy’. I expect him to say and do everything he can to get elected and stay elected. On the other hand, what people do with the opportunities which will be available once Bush is gone, and Congress is slightly more liberal (assuming that happens) will be up to them. Anyone who waits for, or expects a ‘leader’ to ‘do’ anything much, is a fool.
“Perhaps a McCain victory has compensations.”
It would be fair that the Republicans had to deal with the basket case economy that they have created. Obama showed absolutely no interest in the bail out of Fanny and Freddy, yet he would have to deal with the consequences as Pres.
Peter, I think the point is that Americans who are interested in the rest of the world and accordingly get a passport to travel there (and what’s more can afford to do so), are not representative of Americans generally – those who aren’t interested the outside world or can’t afford to travel.
Not that the US is a boring place.
Such as … ?
That’s about 20% of the voting population, Mindy, according to a survey I saw recently – both ways – ie including pro-choice voters who will also vote only for a candidate that shares that stance regardless of all other factors too.
LeftyE@28 – many (but how many?) of these passports are military passports – allowing their service people to visit their 100+ bases overseas. It’s a good[*] way to see the world, but not so good to learn from it. If they’re based in Iraq, they’re not going to do too much mixing with the locals.
FDB@32 – Or don’t have vacation time to travel. The Yanks seem to have less vacation time than us on average.
[For a given value of good. Comes with free health care, but also increased risk of injury, PTSD, and dealing with their penny-pinching Veterans' Affairs bureaucracy.]
20 point shift, from Obama to McCain, among women voters, as reported by ABC polls and at Daily Kos.
Linky please, Another Kim. Where does it say that McCain is now leading 60 to 40?
FDB – it’s just that the apparently low number of passports issued is something that the left loves to bang over americans heads. A figure of 5% is often quoted, however this site attempts to figure it out (based on number of passports issued) and comes to more like 20%.
Truth is no-one really knows so why not just pick the lowest number possible and confirm your prejudices!
I’m having to step away for a minute, but it was up at Daily Kos and will likely still be on the front page.
Yer, Another Kim, it is not good to make such claims without proper sources/links.
joe2, the ABC poll is at http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=5751238&page=1.
“You’ve requested an ABCNews.com page that does not exist.” No good.
As substitute, the ABC provides See How They Run, which is an interactive polltracker thingy. Interesting that Obama leads among women 51% to 43%.
Thankyou Nikolaus.
Katz does that mean the Iraq war was entertaining because it was incompetent rather than evil?
Not my idea of entertainment, unless you enjoy watching a country and its people being destroyed – whether by incompetence or evil, it does not matter.
Actually, it was probably a malignant combination of both.
DOS @ 35 – it depends – they start with less (eg 1-2 weeks/year) but can end up with more with enough service (5-6 weeks/yr). None I’ve spoken to have heard of long service leave though. And the concept of leave loading is totally alien to them as well – “you get paid more when you go on holiday?!!?”
Yesterday i heard a rather poisonous, pointless interview on RN’s Counterpoint – where the rightwingers get to slag off at the RN audience for a full hour – in which Janet Albrechtsen pilloried the left’s alleged anger at the emergence of Sarah Palin. You can imagine how thrilled dear old Janet was by this (imagined?) turn of events. ” i love seeing the left get angry” she said, or words to that effect. Anyhow i wrote a response in the Counterpoint guestbook and it hasn’t appeared. So now i really am an angry Lefty!
I only bother with those ABC forums once in a blue moon as they are notoriously protective of the broadcasters’ fragile egos. Try putting up a critique of one of Jon Faine’s interviews, it won’t see the light of day. But this time i’m going to pursue it, until justice is delivered!
For some more debate about Polls and the US Election, why not check out Possum Comitatus’ efforts at:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/intrade-data/
You can find modelling based on the Intrade “betting” markets data for state and nation-wide markets. Very interesting to compare this work with the tracking polls.
And for more specific post-convention poll discussion, check:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/09/08/us-election-%E2%80%93-post-convention-polling-and-market-chaos/
I think people should be much more worried about stories like this one than the notoriously unreliable polls in the US:
the voter roll purging is on in earnest
Yes.
(But results may vary.)
Rhetoric can only get you so far especially in a campaign as long as Presidential elections. People are starting to look for the beef and two months is a long time for either side to keep filling sandwiches. It’s going to be interesting especially now that McCain has Palin as “point man” running the offensive play and Obambi’s defense, at least for now is in disarray as it not easy as Hillary, given that most people thought her a bitch to begin with.
Obambi…
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/58760
McAfee Site advisor reckons your Obambi link is an unsafe web page Leinad!!!
Another good one: [LINK]
Leinad -0 Good article from the New Yorker, demonstrates how clever the Obambi Chicago machine is. Politics never changes.
Down and Out of Sài Gòn, a “20 point shift, from Obama to McCain, among women voters” as reported by Another Kim is not the same as saying “that McCain is now leading 60 to 40″.
A dead heat I reckon.
Whooooooosh!
‘…incoherent as big tax cuts and being a deficit hawk is….’
Tax cuts are supposed to work by ‘ growing-the-pie’. And after a few years they generally do. ( As per Reagan and Bush 2 ) So what actually happens is the rate of increase in the state sector rises under both republicans and democrats; it just rises slightly slower under the right-wing and there’s barely enough in it to differentiate both political ‘brands’.
Unless you really WANT to spin, potificate, pose, posture and carry-on like a two-bob watch…after all….that’s where the fun is. Its hardly incoherent to win state and federal elections for fifty years on a ’smaller government’ platform, is it Kim.
Update: There’s a good discussion of the latest polls at Salon.
I observe through my glittering orbs of force that biggest Tellurian war, sex and party hearty tribe offers up a carnivorous moose called Britney Veep as token masthead because she is more advanced in use of killing technology, proven prolific breeder and has enhanced optics capability.
But when time comes to eat your leader, would not the McBiden provide more meat on bones? And I observe Obarck is already preroasted. Truly you Tellurians are a primitive species, sorely in need of ruthless yet exploitive stewardship by Boskone.
However there is some we can learn from your nubile and juicy primitive civilization as well. Like how to get the eyeballs for Boskone Inner Council Survivor that Presidential Idol enjoys on your miserable planet. But Boskone is merciful too. Once we have the programming secret, all the Endemol showrunners go straight to the Pain Amplifier. Which is wired for netcast, natch.
The poll Another Kim was talking about – showing a twenty point turn around in support for the GOP ticket among white women since Palin was selected – has just been discussed by Mark in another post.
Poll:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN097920080909
Post:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/10/mccain-gaming-the-media-and-the-blogosphere/
I find that electoral-vote.com has the most updated overview of the polls. I’m using a widget that applies this data and through its interactivity is capable of displaying data from various angles.
The widget shows the election polls by strength of states.
In addition to other different graphical visualizations of data, this one displays the progression of votes over time.
It gives a great overview and it is updated as the polls come in!
See the widget
… and its easy to put on your blog!
Make a difference, keep on voting!