The Fin Review ran today with a cover story on Peter Costello’s legacy – not on the Liberal leadership but as Treasurer. It appears to be an article of faith – based on a questionable analogy about the supposed damage a move away from Paul Keating’s legacy did to Labor in opposition (and one, incidentally, pushed by PJK himself to journos and commentators) – that they have to hug John Howard close to their chest. So Peter Costello is routinely dubbed by Liberals as “Australia’s best Treasurer”.
The IMF didn’t think so. The Fin has obtained leaked Treasury documents prepared for discussions with IMF officials last year. The upshot of the story can be summed up by its tagline – “Peter Costello’s fiscal policy was potentually more damaging than any other period since the Whitlam years”. IMF wonks were deeply concerned about a stimulatory budget and fiscal policy at a time of economic over-heating, and the article by Paul Cleary concludes:
… from 2003 onwards, Costello executed a sustained expansion of fiscal policy during a sustained upswing in the economy. Looking further back, his predecessors had only engaged in such a policy during recessions. The result of this outbreak of bad policy in the last years of the Howard government is likely to be a long period of inflation and weak economic growth, and it may take some considerable time, and pain, to get the balance back in the right order.
For all I know, Costello might blame John Howard for this in his memoirs, if he mentions it at all. That was certainly the line he took in interviews for the Van Onselen and Errington biography of Howard which came out last year. But it begs the question of how a weak Costello completely failed to restrain the fiscal profligacy of the PM.
Costello’s anodyne musings on economic policy have been subjected to an unwarranted level of parsing and “Costellogical” deconstruction. In truth, it may be that the record suggests that he was among Australia’s worst Treasurers.
None of this, or Costello’s confirmation of what almost everyone who wasn’t a member of the punditariat knew all along, appears to have stopped either the endless media speculation about his leadership prospects or the constant talk of a coup against Brendan Nelson. Bizarrely, there’s still an arcane discussion going on within Liberal ranks about the appropriate level of deference to Howard Costello is supposed to adopt in his memoirs in order to keep his non-existent leadership ambitions alive:
Mr Howard is likely to become enraged by any criticism of his wife. Opposition insiders last night said reflections on Mrs Howard were one thing he would not accept.
However, Liberal frontbencher Tony Abbott said he had been assured the book was measured and paid appropriate tribute to Mr Howard.
Abbott himself is now being compared to Sarah Palin, so ludicrous has all this become, and his incessant public commentary on the polls and the leadership, which Joe Hockey was quite right to say is totally counter productive, may be a reflection of his own ambitions for the Deputy’s gig.
This mob very rarely seem to have anything to say about their own shadow portfolios, expending all their energy on plotting and commentary on their internecine disputes. It’s obvious that they’ve still got one eye looking over their collective shoulder to their former Dear Leader, who haunts them from beyond his own political grave. And it’s becoming increasingly clear that Howard and Costello’s legacy is deeply flawed.
Some bright spark within the Opposition might like to consider the unglamorous but essential strategy of actually doing some policy hard yards, rather than placing all their eggs in the twin baskets of stunt-dom and the watch for the next leadership messiah.
…and that rumbling sound you just heard was a semi-trailer load of Prozac being delivered to Glenn Milne’s house.
‘Costello’s anodyne musings on economic policy have been subjected to an unwarranted level of parsing and “Costellogical” deconstruction.’
Mark, don’t be lost to the dark side of Costellology. You will be truly worshipping at the altar of false idolatory.
Costellology: The divination of events that are not to be.
Howard/Costello :A leader who sought to use the economic output of the nation to buy his tenure and a Treasurer too weak to challenge him on this and too lacking in numbers to effect any change.
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“This mob very rarely seem to have anything to say about their own shadow portfolios, expending all their energy on plotting and commentary on their internecine disputes.” At the moment this is an accurate description. It also supports the Costello contention that the Libs need to get away from their Big Leader complex – why develop an in depth understanding of your portfolio if the Big Leader decides anyway?
As for the leagcy – Costello is becoming the Sneddon of his generation.
Aaaaah …. satisfying, yet tantalising. More, more!
Come on now – the Libs in WA had far worse leadership turmoils drag on over 3 years and did no major policy development or differentiation at all, and then just put up a Mr Sensible a day before the election was called, and they’re on the edges of getting back into government. Surely the federal Libs can manage at least another year of plotting and internecine disputes before they have to worry about any of this policy stuff.
In other words, present pain is Costello’s fault. It’s astonishing how the current opposition has blamed the ALP for all the economy’s woes – more astonishing that there’s still a receptive market out there for this kind of thought.
More substantively, Costello’s inflationary budgets went largely unchallenged in the constructed narrative; the ALP were never keen to hammer them until the end, when Rudd made his big “fiscal conservative” pitch, and the media largely went along with the tax cuts program.
Proof that bad politics equals bad policy; real impacts on real people’s lives.
Janet Albrechtsen keeps the Costello faith alive:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/take_your_time_peter/
The argument seems to be that statements by Liberals are always tricky lies.
Andrew Bartlett – Surely the federal Libs can manage at least another year of plotting and internecine disputes before they have to worry about any of this policy stuff.
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No wonder the Democrats are finished. What does policy have to do with anything? Really. Don’t you read The Daily Rupert? Policy is being scrapped. Next we’ll be scrapping flesh politicians for digital talent.
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We’ll keep elections tho’. As long as they rate.
Costello’s Legacy? Whatever his record as treasurer he is doing all he can at the moment to ensure he be forever unfortunately known, in the great Australian vernacular, as a weak turd.
Thanks, Kim, for making me read Planet’s latest tripe. Now I’ll have to go and scrape the stupid out of my brain with a blunt spoon all over again! (Shuffles off, glaring and muttering, to the kitchen.)