Comments on: Enough Canberra circus, on with the Wall Street crisis http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/ Life, Culture and Politics from BrisVegas Tue, 14 Feb 2012 11:23:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Guy http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216730 Guy Wed, 17 Sep 2008 02:07:17 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216730 The reality is that everyone is guessing and nobody really knows for sure; which is a bit scary. Needless to say though, the probability of the world sinking into another depression circa late-1920s is surely slowly creeping away from zero. The crisis may well blow over over the next few years, but if the damage suffered by the financial sector is catastrophic by then, it's difficult to foresee just how far reaching the consequences will be. The reality is that everyone is guessing and nobody really knows for sure; which is a bit scary. Needless to say though, the probability of the world sinking into another depression circa late-1920s is surely slowly creeping away from zero. The crisis may well blow over over the next few years, but if the damage suffered by the financial sector is catastrophic by then, it’s difficult to foresee just how far reaching the consequences will be.

]]> By: Terry http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216729 Terry Tue, 16 Sep 2008 09:24:05 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216729 For a sense of history on financial crashes, I recommend Charles Kindleberger's Manias, Panics and Crashes: <a href="http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?is=140393651X" rel="nofollow">Linked text</a> For a sense of history on financial crashes, I recommend Charles Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes:

Linked text

]]> By: Fmark http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216728 Fmark Tue, 16 Sep 2008 09:18:24 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216728 <i>So many pollies and financial wonks with vested interests are telling us all not to panic</i> While the pollies obviously have more of a vested interest than most, surely almost every Australian has an interest in the markets not collapsing. I'm a penniless student with not particular affection for the current financial systems, but I wouldn't particularly relish a financial meltdown - I have a vested interest in keeping my job, etc. So many pollies and financial wonks with vested interests are telling us all not to panic

While the pollies obviously have more of a vested interest than most, surely almost every Australian has an interest in the markets not collapsing. I’m a penniless student with not particular affection for the current financial systems, but I wouldn’t particularly relish a financial meltdown – I have a vested interest in keeping my job, etc.

]]> By: Adrien http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216727 Adrien Tue, 16 Sep 2008 07:53:00 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216727 <i>So many pollies and financial wonks with vested interests are telling us all not to panic</i> . That's right don't panic. Just get that oxygen mask and strap it on firmly. Make sure you do this before helping the children. Take deep breath. We're just going to make an unscheduled water landing. . No you commie that doesn't mean we're crashing into the fucking ocean. What's this? It's a parachute. Fuck off and get your own. So many pollies and financial wonks with vested interests are telling us all not to panic
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That’s right don’t panic. Just get that oxygen mask and strap it on firmly. Make sure you do this before helping the children. Take deep breath. We’re just going to make an unscheduled water landing.
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No you commie that doesn’t mean we’re crashing into the fucking ocean. What’s this? It’s a parachute. Fuck off and get your own.

]]> By: murph the surf http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216726 murph the surf Tue, 16 Sep 2008 07:13:39 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216726 This article by Michael West is a good place to start .Of the big 5 US investment banks only 2 remain - Merril has become an inhouse business of Bank of America. Goldmans and Morgan Stanley are due to report this week. . AIG is a giant insurer . It's survival looks doubtful. . As the couterparty exposure to these credit derivatives is largely still unknown it isn't possible to know at this time just how big the dangers to the economy are. In the Michael West article he mentions one australian bank has a trillion dollars of exposure for example. . http://business.smh.com.au/business/banks-wary-of-lehman-plague-20080916-4hgn.html?page=1 This article by Michael West is a good place to start .Of the big 5 US investment banks only 2 remain – Merril has become an inhouse business of Bank of America.
Goldmans and Morgan Stanley are due to report this week.
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AIG is a giant insurer . It’s survival looks doubtful.
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As the couterparty exposure to these credit derivatives is largely still unknown it isn’t possible to know at this time just how big the dangers to the economy are. In the Michael West article he mentions one australian bank has a trillion dollars of exposure for example.
.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/banks-wary-of-lehman-plague-20080916-4hgn.html?page=1

]]> By: Robert Merkel http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216725 Robert Merkel Tue, 16 Sep 2008 06:30:59 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/16/enough-canberra-circus-on-with-the-wall-street-crisis/#comment-216725 One interesting question is who's got cash sitting burning a hole in their pockets, and might possibly choose to buy some cheap assets along the way. Sovereign wealth funds strike me (as a guess) as likely candidates. Watch the political gyrations if Chinese or Middle Eastern money gets involved in any bailouts... Mind you <a HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temasek_Holdings" rel="nofollow">Temasek Holdings</A> has just lost a pile of money in their investment in Merrill Lynch, so that might kind of discourage any sovereign wealth fund who thinks they're getting a bargain investing in the US financial sector at the moment... One interesting question is who’s got cash sitting burning a hole in their pockets, and might possibly choose to buy some cheap assets along the way.

Sovereign wealth funds strike me (as a guess) as likely candidates. Watch the political gyrations if Chinese or Middle Eastern money gets involved in any bailouts…

Mind you Temasek Holdings has just lost a pile of money in their investment in Merrill Lynch, so that might kind of discourage any sovereign wealth fund who thinks they’re getting a bargain investing in the US financial sector at the moment…

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