Oks, there’s got to be some way to work this into a drinking game. Just to prove that political tragics are rooly cool like the kidz on West Wing and not strange nerds really.
Possum has enabled a feature on his blog where you can guess the size of any Newspoll bounce that might occur now that Malcolm Turnbull is Oppo Leader. Wisdom of crowds and all that. No mention of any prizes (hint! hint!*) – at least you can make a buck from the betting markets…
So saying, the average Coalition bounce from a leadership change was 5.7% on the primary and 6% on the TPP. This compares to Labor’s average leadership change bounce of 3.6% on the primary and 1.7% on the TPP. The total average leadership change bounce was 4.6% on the primary and 3.8% on the TPP across the 6 historical examples we have available.
And I’ve got my own idea for a bit of crowd sourced political commentary. Let’s pretend we’re the press gallery and set a % which, if not met, will be decried as a setback, or completely unrelated and probably because of the current position of the moon in the lunar cycle, depending on what mood Dennis Shanahan et al are in. And then we can set a % sufficient to ensure the production of headlines like “Australian politics has fundamentally changed”, “the honeymoon is now over”, “Turnbull reinvigorates Coalition” etc, etc.
Be your own press gallery. Write your own political narrative.
Ps: If Turnbull can’t get 5% on the 2PP, he’s toast. Peter Costello is willing to be drafted. 
*Update: Now there’s a prize!
I notice Mr Shanahan is still peddling his line from last year:
“There’s only one game in Australian politics and it’s the economy.”
Kim – the power of your hints are incredibly persuasive at the highest levels of the Crikey echelon. Winner get’s a free Crikey sub!
Any chance you could drop another hint about how Possum deserves a Ferrari?
I was wondering who at the OO would be first to give a ‘Costello is not dead, he’s just resting’ offering after his book launch. I particularly liked the line
Now Turnbull has become leader, the pressure is off. At least for a while, the media will not be parsing every comment Costello makes for signs of his future intentions.
(starting from… NOW!)
As for Newspoll, i can’t help but feel that any movement towards Turnbull, be it in party votes or PM ratings, will be the focus regardless of the size of the movement. Anything for a contest.
Every once in a while an outlier comes along. Now wouldn’t that be hilarious for all if Newspoll came out with a 58/42 by accident. If Turnbull can’t get a noticeable bounce out of this over the next few polls the NATS might starting thinking of the Grylls option.
I’m sure those at the OO have drafted their pieces already – just waiting for the numbers for the blank spaces.
An outlier!… please oh please! great pumpkin the sky
60-40 that would be funny
He’s also willing to wait. Turnbull will have a year to make an impression. Personally, I don’t think he will.
After watching Rudd on the 7.30 Report tonight, I’m beginning to wonder if it might be Turnbull who will have problems, not Labor. Yeah, I know I sometimes behave like a symbiotic weather vane. Reckon we will know all in about 3 months.
“Personally, I don’t think he will.”
Why say you this?
Interestingly, the Right commentators (Devine, Albrechtson) are lukewarm at best about Turnbull. The message is clear: He’s not One of Them.
“(starting from… NOW!)”
Pithy.
I see dead cats.
ALP 52- LNP 48 in The Oz will have the headline “Turnbull Has Rudd on the Run”
ALP 53- LNP 47 will be “Turnbull Stuns Rudd”
ALP 54- LNP 46 will be “It’s Game On!”
ALP 55- LNP 45 will be “In other news today on page 12…”
1. The ALP is clearly scared, as Mr Turnbull, QC, top student, etc, runs rings around the inexperienced Mr Rudd during Question Time. And his Matters of Public Importance have been crafted with the writing skills of an Edmund Bourke, or a Tom Wills.
2. Oh, what manner of man is this? Colossus of the Bar. Carrying all before him.
3. The Hon Viscount Turnbull requests the pleasure of the company of the esteemed Editor of the OO, and his Esteemed Proprietor, at the Lodge [whoops!] at a classy joint, very soon.
4. Even now, as Peter Costello bides his time, Mr Turnbull must carve out a new persona, hew a new and rougher image from the bedrock of Menzies’ Forgotten Plebeians, rise to new heights in his stellar career
5. The new Leader of the Opposition, Julie Bishop, said it was time for the Liberal Party to put the divisions of the last 5 months behind them. She said the Party would not be funding Mr Turnbull’s legal expenses. She welcomed Dr Nelson onto her front bench as Opposition spokesman on transport & trucking. She said she looked forward to reading the memoirs of Mr Howard, Dr Nelson, and Mrs Turnbull. “It’s getting a bit crowded down the back of the bookshop!” she quipped brightly.
Spiros, they’re not lukewarm. They hate him. He’s the anti-Howard: Idealistic, urbane, cosmopolitan, economically literate, (unelectable?).
But that’s as good a sign as any that he can win votes outside the Liberal “base”.
Depending on the polls, they will detect magnificent new virtues in Turnbull:
+7% “One-term wonder Rudd” (Akerman)
+6% “Get ready for Republic of Mal” (Albrechtsen)
+5% “He’s not like the other Malcolm” (Milne)
+4% “Beginning of the end for Rudd” (Bolt)
Ambi, I’m liking #5!
I’d love to hint about a Porsche for you, Poss, but there’s that terrible socialist tax coming in!
Bob Ellis has read the $weets book.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2367943.htm
Possum gets a bicycle.
I’m worried about Captain Smirk. He seems to have drawn up a lengthy enemies list ; not only in his own ugly party, but also in the media.
Did you see the poor reporter who fell down the stairs in front of Costello and whom the Smirker stepped over without offering any help?
I’m not crazy about the media either; but there is such a thing as basic human solidarity. Thanks Kim, Bob Ellis and others ( You know who you are) for exposing this psychotic degenerate sociopath Peter Costello for what he really is.
His hit song to remember him by?
‘ I’m a creep ‘