Comments on: ETS White Paper already?

By: Darren Lewin-Hill

Darren Lewin-Hill — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 10:11:58 +0000

Those who would like to read about the response today from Martin Ferguson's office regarding the softened ETS proposal to industry and the Government's suppression of the Wilkins Review on climate policy can do so at my blog, Northcote Independent. The post looks at Ferguson's response in the context of the apparent firming of the line to be taken by the white paper, as reported in this post (to which I have, of course, linked).

By: Carl

Carl — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 09:13:33 +0000

I’d bet my bottom dollar the white paper was well into production before the release of the green paper.

By: dk.au

dk.au — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 04:36:17 +0000

What makes you think the feds would be in any position to release the white paper, THE macroeconomic reform process without knowledge and analysis of the modelling?

I don’t doubt that they’ll spend some time on all of that, but if they’ve largely settled on the 2020 trajectory it’s all secondary.

By: wilful

wilful — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 04:22:20 +0000

The absurdity in this debate re Garnaut and ETS targets is that, if the McKinsey analysis ( http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/pdf/Australian_Cost_Curve_for_GHG_Reduction.pdf ) has any value, then the first 30% of emission reductions come for free or better. meanwhile, the Nous Wedges report ( http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/summit/Resources/Wedges%20Report.pdf ) shows how Victoria can get to 60% reductions without any magic happening at all.

By: Darren Lewin-Hill

Darren Lewin-Hill — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 03:37:06 +0000

Thanks dk.au. It will be interesting to see if there is any response from my local federal MP. Even if the White Paper isn’t exactly settled, if the position it will largely reflect has been, then that is equally alarming, and would show contempt for the consultation. All this, at the same time as the Wilkins Review is suppressed and Ferguson appears to be running his own closed discussions with industry, paints a disturbing picture re Australia’s likely position in the lead-up to international climate talks.

By the way, readers of The Hot Topic by Sir David King and Gabrielle Walker will know that any talk of Australia going out on a limb with any sort of decent reductions is just nonsense. Refer, in particular, to their chapter, ‘Industrialised Nations’, which profiles and positions each country in terms of their historic contribution to emissions, per capita and total 2004 emissions, and the role they have played in Kyoto, and might play going forward. We wouldn’t be leading either with an ETS (multiple existing examples), or even a cut of 40% by 2020 (Germany).

By: michael d

michael d — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 03:31:51 +0000

If DTF/Garnaut modelling wasn’t ready for the recent targets/trajectories Garnaut release.

What makes you think the feds would be in any position to release the white paper, THE macroeconomic reform process without knowledge and analysis of the modelling?

Plus Oct 3 is COAG… so most bureacrats will be busy running around with a whole bunch of other stuff to do.

Also, seems K.Rudd has been busy pushing CCS anyway.

http://news.theage.com.au/national/australia-funds-carbon-capture-institute-20080919-4jj2.html

By: dk.au

dk.au — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:26:55 +0000

Great open letter, Darren.
I should clarify that we’re likely to see the key aspects of the White Paper put to cabinet in early October. Though I’m told the form and substance appear to be largely settled.

By: Peter Wood

Peter Wood — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:20:38 +0000

They added a bunch more submissions to the CPRS Green Paper website this morning.

By: Darren Lewin-Hill

Darren Lewin-Hill — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 12:32:31 +0000

An interesting point, Spiros. I wonder how much Ferguson’s position stems from the misplaced fear that transition to a low-carbon economy is going to mean job losses. To that I’d answer that we have no choice regarding the transition, job opportunities will emerge from it, and that, if there is any compensation to be paid to disadvantaged industries, it should be to the workers, not industry owners.

The latter are certainly prepared to carry on emitting and concentrating profits in relatively few hands, while at the same time asking us all to share the climate impacts. To the extent that Ferguson has concerns about workers, I can agree with him – not on his failure to face reality, but on action to minimise the impact on them as we move to save our climate.

By: Spiros

Spiros — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 12:19:49 +0000

It’s such a pity about Martin Ferguson. His father Jack Ferguson, former Deputy Premier of NSW, was a true hero of the Labor party and the labour movement.