With Obama reaching new heights in the polls, Nate Silver more or less sums it up:
It’s fairly unusual for a candidate to have such a sustained run of momentum so deep into the campaign cycle. And it does appear to be real momentum, with some real feedback loops: the worse McCain’s poll numbers become, the more desperate his campaign looks, and the more desperate his campaign looks, the worse his poll numbers become.
McCain now has to go on a run of his own, a large enough run to wipe at least 8 points off of Obama’s lead, and perhaps more like 9 or 10 to cover his inferior position in the Electoral College and the votes that Obama is banking in early and absentee balloting. It is imperative that McCain does not just draw tomorrow night’s debate, does not just win a victory on points, but emerges with a resounding victory, the sort that leaves the spin room gasping for air.
There’s always the possibility that McCain might make the “one term” promise that’s supposed to have been tossed around in his campaign for a long time, as a final attempt at one of his crazybrave “game changers”, but with Palin now very much on the nose with independents and swing voters, that doesn’t look too clever. Meanwhile, Obama may have set a bit of a trap for Walnuts by claiming he’s too yella to raise William Ayers to his face. McCain says he’ll bring up Ayers. Given that most people think the Obama hangs with terrsts card is a big downer, except with the more rabid elements of the base and Fox News and the right wing bloggers, this may be a very bad move.
Update [by Mark] Liveblogging at FiveThirtyEight.com, Feministe, Feministing, Crooks & Liars, Think Progress and this girl called automatic win.
When propaganda doesn’t work:
Debate prep. http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=10&year=2008&base_name=debates_by_association
E.J. Dionne on Fran Kelly’s RN Breakfast this morning described McCain’s situation going into today’s debate as “strategic gridlock”.
Works for me.
At today’s Long Island confrontation, Senator McCain(R-AZ), will require a rhetorical monster truck to have even the slimmest of chances of crashing through. Still, to be fair, subtlety hasn’t really been the good Senator’s longsuit in his campaign thus far.
This is only tangentially related, but I thought it was funny, so had to share it: http://slofith.org/fith/wil/jesus-h-christ.jpg
I want my October Surprise! What are they waiting for?
Does anyone know if the debate is going to be broadcast on ABC News radio today, interrupting their broadcast of proceedings at Parliament? Or if it will be broadcast on any other radio stations?
For excellent live coverage and commentary of the Debate – you can’t beat The Young Turks.
I wonder if McCain decides to play Ayers will Obama raise with Timmons?
I’m glad Obama has opened up such a lead in the polls, because I think he’ll need at least 8 points in reserve to overcome the Bradley effect.
So my prediction at this stage is an Obama win by a very small margin.
What’s the Bradley effect?
I predict a pretty healthy Obama win, definitely over 300 EC votes.
Bugger – we’re not getting the debate live in Queensland and the TYT feed isn’t coming in! Anyone want to do a summary on each point?
It’s a whitey-guilt polling error, wilful.
Anyway, Obama has been consistently ahead in the only polling institution that matters: Jack Strocchi’s predictions. McCain might as well not show up.
@11 Yeah, what’s with that? Must be a daylight saving thing.
Liveblogging at FiveThirtyEight.com:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/say-it-to-my-face-debate-liveblog-2.html
Update [by Mark] Liveblogging at FiveThirtyEight.com, Feministe, Feministing, Crooks & Liars and this girl called automatic win.
ThinkProgress liveblogging:
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/15/presidential-debate-live-blogging-3/
I was reading recently that the Bradley effect was greatly exaggerated, that Bradley had was only 1 point over his opponent on the election eve polls, and then narrowly lost. I also would have expected Clinton to gain in the primaries in Iowa and the other early primaries, yet the reverse happened and the polls understated Obama’s vote.
Why are they sitting down?
Because McCain’s batteries need recharging.
Perhaps McCains walnut is now approaching the size of a grapefruit?
And the winner is….
…..Joe the Plumber.
I missed the debate. Out shopping because its pension day, and I got held up at the chemists. I gather Obama won.
Obama won alright, but Joe the Plumber was a close second.
The best that can be said about McCain was that he turned up.
I don’t know who McCain’s speechwriter or whatever is, but surely he would have been better off with Bob the Builder. Then all those tiny tots too young to vote would at least be able to tell their grandkids he was a nice old man.
“Joe the Plumber” apparently went down badly with the focus groups.
All the polls of independents/swing voters give it to Obama by a wide margin.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/say-it-to-my-face-debate-post-mortem.html
Paul at 21, hope you are OK. Did they get away with much? Really, robbing pensioners – what is the world coming to? And in the chemist – probably damn druggies. Scheeesh
Hmmm… while both candidates ‘misspoke’ as they like to call it, it would seem Obambi won the ‘I misspoke’ by a landslide. No chance of proper fact checking by his fans I guess. What an unfortunate choice the US electorate have in both McCain & Obama.
Not a word about climate change. In fact both seem to confuse energy independence (from the Middle East and Chavez’s Venezuela) with doing something about US carbon emissions. Free trade was also only seen from a domestic perspective and McCain used it to berrate Obama over support for Colombia. No talk about the Cuban embargo. Has either of them said what they will do with Guantanamo? Ho-hum.
I got my best laugh when McCain suggested that if the Obama health plan was adopted America might end up with a system like Canada or the U.K.
Oh, the Horror!
Poorer folks might be able to actually get into hospital without going bankrupt.
Papinbarra,
it might not have been druggies, it might have been the Druggies’ Friends – the chemists – who held him up! Have you ever left a chemist shop with much spare cash?
Joe Sixpack transformed into Joe B-mcrack.
Official low point of the debate analysis: Steve Doocy on Fox News calling Obama a “master debater”, several times about half an hour ago.
Why the F*ck I’m compelled to watch that shit when I’ve had a skinfull I have no idea.
I tend to judge the US election by the hysteria that passes for coverage on FOX NEWs,the stupider their comments get the further in front Obama must be getting the real killer was Hitchens backing Obama in this morning OZ.
Wonder if O’Reilly,and the rest of the ratbags will commit hari kiri on camera if the Republicans lose big time.
Yeah, its a crack-up how some Yanks think their healthcare system is good. I suspect a strong correlation with lack of passports.
Come to think of it, another highlight of the debate was when Obama referenced one of the few occasions that he had been treated fairly by Fox. Given uncle Ruperts well known capacity to back all horses, in a given race, it is surprising he is still sponsoring so much dirt on the obvious favourite.
Maybe he is counting on a last ditched Bradley effect, if it is allowed to enter the scarey Joe the Plumber mind.
Don’t think so joe2, I think you might find that Fox news has a mind of its own, it’s the one dog in the yard not even if Rupert can put a leash on.
Perhaps I should have said delayed at the chemist?
On morning TV this morning, Joe the Plumber, it turns out is not a registered Plumber at all, but he is a registered Republican. So was he trying to set Obama up? If so it didn’t work.
Here’s two articles dissing the Bradley effect in 2008:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
Paul Burns (Oct 17th, 2008 at 8:47 am):
I love it. Poor old John just can’t get anything right. I guess ‘Joe the plumber’ is a plumber in the same sense that ‘McCain the maverick’ is a maverick.
Or McCain the fighter pilot who has never been a fighter pilot in the conventional meaning of the term. As in having the ability to fly a plane without crashing into stationary objets, otherwise known as the ground.
Also, I find it difficult to believe that the owner of Fox News is powerless to control its toxic output. A few strategic sackings would get the message across, and would be long overdue.
More here about Joe the Plumber from UnNews.
http://uncyclopedia.org/wiki/UnNews:Presidential_candidates_devote_all_remaining_funds_to_one_voter
No, John at 32 – they’ll do just fine. You need to remember that the Fox News crowd, plus Limbaugh, Hewitt, Coulter and all the other RW megaphones, initially made their name under Clinton. They will have a grand old time with a liberal Democrat president to use as a scratching post; it’s much more fun than trying to defend the indefensible, as has been their lot under Bush.
There is no Peak Wingnut.
Seems that Joe the Plumber is actually Joe the not licensed plumber, never been licensed plumber. Joe is the registered Republican possibly related to the Keating 5 mob and works for a plumbing business and owes back taxes etc…oh dear..
McPain & Ailing 2008.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/729613.html
Doh, sorry about @43 should have read up – v. old news.
Found this via The Daily Dish…if it all sounds familiar:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=l63SRpGXBHE