It’s getting pretty difficult based on the current state of the polls for John McCain to map out a strategy for electoral college victory, with all the Kerry states looking pretty good for Obama and the Democrats looking competitive in quite a number of Bush states – such as Virginia, Florida, Iowa and quite a few others. So there’s been a fair bit of interest in why the McCain campaign has been pouring resources into Pennsylvania. Nate Silver’s projections currently show Obama winning there by 9.7 points.
One suspicion is that McCain’s campaign is relying on the “Bradley effect”. Nate Silver also has a convincing argument as to why that “effect” may not manifest itself at all.
The possible reasons for the Pennsylvania focus are deconstructed at FiveThirtyEight.Com and Obsidian Wings. The consensus appears to be that this strategy is a triumph of hope over reason. The punchline?
As a famous Democrat once said, of course, hope is not a strategy.
I assume its because Penn is the sort of state that theoretically *might* have reacted to an Obama style Democrat; that *might* have been peeved over Hilary etc etc.
Only problem is: it didn’t in fact happen. And then McCain/Palin fell to pieces anyway.
Dead mavericks walking.
Indeed, Kim. Because Pennsylvania Is Where Republican Campaigns Go to Die:
http://www.observer.com/2008/politics/pennsylvania-where-republican-campaigns-go-die
If there really was a Bradley effect I think we’d have seen it by now. Perhaps Obie’s victory will at least put paid to the notion that Americans are racists. Even better, it should make every minority member believe it’s possible to make it in a country many might not have believed in before. I’m a glass half-full guy.
If more than 50% can vote for someone as grossly unsuitable as Obama then how would they vote for someone black who was actually good?
I’d disagree about Obama’s merits (without being terribly excited about them either), Craig Mc, but I do think Silver’s argument about the Bradley effect is reasonably persuasive.
Craig – they twice voted (allegedly
) for someone as grossly unsuitable as George W Bush. The bar has not simply been set low, it has been buried six feet under.
FWIW, I think McCain, once imbued with presidential authority, might not be that bad, and revert to the “principled maverick” he once was. But the concessions he’s had to make to the “base” (not least the Palin nomination) have hit pretty hard.
I also tend to think Obama will go OK, given the chance. He’ll certainly acquire a deal of international goodwill – and hopefully not squander it as W did post-9/11.
Obama will go like a cut cat.
They shld invoke some sort of mercy rule and hold the election tomorrow. The next 2 weeks is dead and lost time now.
The triumph of special pleading over reason.
At no time in Amerian history were all Americans racist. The proportion of racist Americans is probably falling. But so long as that proportion can change the outcome of an election, racism must continue to be viewed as an important component in American elections.
Yup. Right there with ya wbb *wink*.
The fact is that that Mac’s campaign is totally in the ditch. An exercise in thoroughly hoplessely hopeless hopelessness.
As Steve Kornacki lays out in eloquent detail above, GOP hasn’t won a primary in Penn state since, well, the dinosaurs ruled the earth.
And, as 538 states, the polls have essentially flatlined with Barack at a double digit lead nationally.
Folks, we’re about to get a moderate/centrist back into the White House.
You know. Somebody sensible.
Hate Groups Mostly Quiet in Election – NY Times
No-one has considered the effect of a probable RECORD amount of Afro-Americans voters turning out to vote.
What will ‘whitey’ think when he sees all these people? He may change his vote whilst he is lining up at the ballot box!!!!
Whitey won’t see this because he doesn’t live in the same neighbourhood as Blacky.
Simon Jackman, professor of politics at Stanford University, said today that he’d been researching the Bradley effect in relation to Obama and couldn’t find any. He says in effect that Obama is different, that he’s “not just any African-American candidate but a particularly charismatic one.”
And he thinks Obama is going to win.
Of course he’ll win. 8 years of the worst President since independence in 1776, the McCain/ Palin debacle, then the economic collapse. You do the sums!
Its going to be a wipeout.