It’s time to tear your attention from the Real Clear Politics coverage of the donkey versus elephant race, and post whatever you will (as long as it sufficiently complies with the comments policy) about the Melbourne Cup – what your tips are, what you’ll be wearing, where you’ll be partying and how, the social and cultural significance of the race, memorable past Cup Day stories, why the Irish, the Poms and/or the Aotearoans will be making jokes at Australia’s expense from tomorrow afternoon onwards – whatever!
Life, Culture and Politics from BrisVegas
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And let me begin with my tips. For the benefit of those of you whose faith in my judgement has been shaken by Fiumicino’s success in finishing second last and last in his most recent outings, I wish to state that I have won more money than I’ve lost in Melbourne Cup bets since I backed Rain Lover to win (due to a clerical error by my father) in 1969 – my most recent success coming last year when I plonked $10 on Efficient’s big grey nose.
I will be avoiding Australian-bred horses, mainly because the Melbourne Cup is a staying race and the Australian horse breeding industry has succumbed hopelessly to the casino capitalist culture of the quick return, breeding horses which mature early and can win short races at 2 and 3 years old. The most fancied Australian-bred runner, Zipping, is a two-time loser in the Melbourne Cup, finishing a well beaten fourth in 2006 and 2007 and meeting a better field this year than last year. The best performed Australian horse on current form is Barbaricus – 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and 2nd in the Mackinnon Stakes, which history suggests is an ideal formline in the lead-up races, but his breeding does not suggest that he’ll get the trip.
The New Zealand-bred horses’ ranks have been somewhat depleted due to Efficient and Zagreb (both by champion stallion and occasional LP commenter Zabeel) going amiss in trainng, Maldivian earning himself a nice holiday after winning the Cox Plate, and Fiumicino contriving to vindicate Fine’s judgement. Zabeel’s only represention in this year’s Cup is courtesy of two grandsons (Red Lord and Moatize) whose mothers were both knocked up by Australian sprinting stallions. Of the New Zealanders, Nom Du Jeu, who won the Australian Derby last Easter, has been in excellent form this time in and charged home for second in the Caulfield Cup. He is one of my two fancies for this year’s Cup.
Then we come to the northern hemisphere horses – mostly from the UK and Ireland with one from France. The French horse – Varevees -has a rather pedestrian record and I would almost be inclined to discount here – I say almost because there have been examples of northern hemisphere horses who’ve come down here with not much form at all and then run outstanding races in the Melbourne Cup – think of Give The Slip, who almost lived up to his name in 2001 before Ethereal caught him.
Conversely, there is now quite a list of northern hemisphere horses (most recently Yeats in 2006) who’ve come here with huge reputations, started favourite, and bombed out hopelessly. On northern hemisphere form the best of the invaders is Septimus, and he is undoubtedly a very good horse. However he’s running in the Cup without having previously raced in Australia, and history suggests that northern hemisphere horses don’t do as well when they’re not given prior opportunity to acclimatise to local racing conditions. He’s also being ridden by a northern hemisphere jockey, and history suggests that a rider with local knowledge is a major advantage.
This suggests that Mad Rush is the northern hemisphere horse most likely to return home with the Cup. His race record in the UK has been very good, he has had a lead-up race in Australia (an unlucky and fast-finishing fourth in the Caulfield Cup) and he has a local jockey in Damian Oliver who has previously ridden northern hemisphere horses in the Cup with success (Media Puzzle, who won in 2002, and Pop Rock and Purple Moon who ran second in 2006 and 2007).
An Irish horse called Profound Beauty has attracted quite a lot of interest. She is trained by Dermot Weld, who has previously won the Cup with Vintage Crop (1993) and Media Puzzle. However, her breeding is against her. Her father, Danehill, is a horse whose main achievement in life was fathering a vast horde of horses which catered to the Australian casino capitalist culture of a quick return from 2 and 3 year olds in short races. Notable performances by Danehill progeny in past Melbourne Cups include those of Zipping (see above) and Nothin’ Leica Dane and Elvstroem, both of whom looked competitive for half the length of the home straight in 1995-1996 and 2004 respectively before petering out.
Therefore, I predict that this year’s Melbourne Cup will resolve itself into a battle between Nom Du Jeu and Mad Rush. The unknown quantities are: (a) whether Septimus is good enough to overcome the drawbacks referred to above; (b) whether Barbaricus can defy the limitations suggested by his breeding; (c) whether the rain will piss down mightily and bring C’est La Guerre into serious contention. Oh, and there’s a little thing called luck which can come to bear on these matters, and often does.
Sorry about Fiumicino, Paul. I’ll be back later with my tips. I was speaking to a professional punter pal of mine earlier (and yes, he makes a good living from it) and he says it’s a very open race and can only narrow it down to 11 chances. Not that helpful.
You must be impressed with Rebel Raider, the Derby winner. He’s a grandson of Zabeel through Reset and inbred 3Mx4F to Sir Tristram through that good racehorse of the ’70′s Dalmacia.
I’d back him for the 2009 Melbourne Cup now, if I could.
Yes, Rebel Raider isn’t a bad result from Reset’s first attempt at fatherhood. Pity we’ll never know whether Reset could have beaten Makybe Diva in the 2004 Melbourne Cup.
He was a miler Paul. Australian Guineas and Futurity Stakes. This is unusual for a Zabeel, but look at the dam line. His damsire is Zeditave, a great sprinter from a family of great sprinters. He wasn never going to stay. But with the right mares, he’ll throw stayers okay.
Melbourne Cup? Is that this week?
One thing I don’t understand is why foreign horse owners and trainers continue to try these “flying raids” on the Cup, when the evidence suggests that flying a foreign horse and jockey with a week’s notice in to do just the Cup doesn’t work nearly as often as the relative quality of the horses in the field would suggest?
Are the prizes available in Australian lead-up races so unattractive that it makes more sense to leave the horses racing in Europe until the last possible moment, even though by doing so the owners are reducing their chance of a Cup win?
Or are the handicappers just being too hard on the foreign horses?
Robert, they don’t fly them in at the last moment. They’ve been here up to six weeks, but I take your point. The prizemoney in Australia is much better than in Europe because of the TAB. That’s why they’re here, even with the rotten state of the Oz dollar.
But in Europe they race their horses far less often. Here we have to race our horses into fitness because the training facilites aren’t as good as the ones in Europe. But if you look at an owner like Lloyd Williams, here’s now using the European way of training a lot more. Plus he can afford to.
Many trainers like to use their own jockeys because they trust them. But they may get caught out here because of the different racing style.
But, I think you’re right. The European horses do have a much better chance if they have a race here and learn to adapt to the much tighter racing conditions. This is what I have against Septimus. He’s only used to small fields, not another 23 horses with all the argey-bargey that means.
I’d say the handicappers are being fairly lenient on the overseas horses because the VRC wants them here. Weld, who trains Profound Beauty, says he’s very happy with her weight. And none of the others are complaining. But it’s a huge undertaking to bring these horses out. All their food and water comes out with them so there’s no interruption to their routine. The VRC doesn’t pay any costs so they need to be serious. I doubt there’s little change from $100,000 from a trip here.
OMG. i have been so pre-occupied with the American election I forgot about this. Will have to check out 7.30 Report tonight and morning TV.
I never seem to see the end of this race.
If I bother I’m usually so sauced by the time it starts that I’m chundering-up the prawn cocktail by the third furlong.
Still, as Fine says of Zabeel at post 5, with the right mare, I might just throw a stayer.
Boom. Boom.
I drew Nom de Jeu in the office sweep, and I have the day off tomorrow. That’s the extent of my interest.
The main event is on Wednesday.
So, my choice for the Cup is Nom du Jeu. Well bred Kiwi who ran a great 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and won the Australian Derby last autumn. A reasonable weight with 54ks.
I’ve boxed a trifecta of Nom du Jeu, Profound Beauty, Mad Rush and Moatize.
If you want a go at a real outsider, try the Kiwi mare Prize Lady. She’s about 100/1 and has won the Last two Auckland Cups, so she’s great value.
I probably won’t know what happens at the race until I rock up to the Marble Bar tonight with the obligatory hat on – as mentioned to somewhat of a flurry two years ago I don’t tend to watch it unless I’m in an office for the day. For all those who do though, may your favoured horse’s hooves have wings!
P.S. Amanda and Shaun had the good oil then. Watch ‘em.
I shall place my annual bet, that a jockey will run past the post chasing a horse. One year it’ll come in and it’ll be a round for everyone at the Fortune of War. Which is a pretty tolerable pub as it turns out.
I don’t know tig that one good win makes me a reliable equine forecaster. But what the hay. I’ve spread my money over Mad Rush and Profound Beauty.
I’ve also have a box trifecta with the above and Nom de Jeu.
And just drew Red Lord in the office sweep.
Nice roses.
I’m going to watch the race at the Union Hotel in Brunswick — which, incidentally, is having a launch party this weekend (it reopened recently), and you’re all invited.
Horse racing = Soviet Bloc athletics training program but at least one order of magnitude worse. Meh. My wife has ridden competitively in eventing and she actually lowered my opinion of horse racing.
“Zipping” for me. Five bucks each way.
I’ve got $3 on
B.A. BaracusBarbaricus.Nom du jeu for me
I was going to put a bit on Profound Beauty but I just had a look at the odds on the TAB website and it seems half the country agrees with me. So, Nom Du Jeu for me too. I love racehorses with witty names.
My wife had to phone work today to find out the sweep entries she had drawn. They were reported as “Guano” and “Chest la Gooey” which we have translated as
Guano,
C’est la Guerre.
Ah, Australia – c’est la vie, mais non?
*Guyno*
Viewed has just made an ass of me. Eeyore! Eeyore!
Stupid horses.
Two sweeps at work – that’s a total of $7 I’ll never see again (gloom)
vive la Guerre !!
Hehe, once again I thought about it while reading the Age at 9am, considered betting, didnt, then forgot about altogether until two hours after the race was over. 7th time running, I think.
I wouldnt have backed Viewed tho, so once again, that all worked out for the best!
I won on Bauer.
Almost a nice E/W payout but beaten by a nose.
(And at first the photo was given to Bauer by Bruce on Ch7)
But no one would begrudge Bart winning another one – wonderful.
Perfect weather, another great Cup Day.
It was lovely to see Cummings’ get another winner.
In horses the concept of family that’s used is matrilineal. Viewed’s great-great grandmother using that concept of family is a wonderful broodmare called Wuthering Heights. In general, it’s referred to as the ‘Heights family’. So, there’s one for the Bronte lovers, like me.
Ha! Just reading Juliet Barker’s The Brontes so count me in, Fine. After your info about Claire Lindop, it was nice to see Cummings mention Moatize’s run tonight on 7:30 report. Hopefully that is good for her as well as the ‘orse.
Moatize will be better, stronger horse in a years time. Clare’s career will get push along from all this publicity. I really like the Juliet Barker bio.
Agreed, that Juliet Barker book is terrific. And now if ever I see a racehorse called Heathcliff or Nelly Dean, I’ll know who it’s related to!