The big note of caution should be that this data is drawn from exit polls which don’t take into account the very large early vote, and that exit polls have certain problems of validity and reliability.
However, there’s some interesting reading at both RedBlueRichPoor and FiveThirtyEight. I suspect the absence of the early vote in the sample diminishes the increases in youth and African-American turnout. And it’s just as well to remember that the election was actually reasonably close in the popular vote, and that the electoral vote map has been tweaked rather than transformed. Trends which were operating this year need reinforcing through the upcoming electoral cycles, and much will depend on Obama’s performance in government. You can never claim that there’s a realigning election on the basis of one cycle (06-08), though my bet would be that this will turn out in retrospect to have been one, for a whole host of more qualitative and interpretive factors.
I haven’t seen any comprehensive data as yet on Hispanic and youth votes’ partisan composition, but some evidence presented during the CNN coverage suggested very strong 60+% Obama votes in both populations. It’s worthwhile noting that the demographics of many states which are swinging to the Democrats strongly – or showing signs of such swings (ie in Texas, Arizona and South Carolina) – are fast changing to a much more heterogenous composition. And that generally, the younger cohort is more socially liberal and less hung up on racial barriers and all the baggage of the culture wars – including among younger Evangelicals.
There’s a lot here for Obama and the Democrats to make hay with in terms of partisan and geographic realignment, if they play their cards well.
Update: Some numbers on the youth and Latino votes:
Latino Catholics appear to have been decisive in flipping three states from red to blue: New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Colorado’s nine electoral votes swung into the Obama column with a strong 53% to 46% win and in New Mexico the margin was even larger: 57% for Obama to McCain’s 42%. In Nevada, 55% of the vote went to Obama and McCain took 43%. If Obama delivers comprehensive immigration reform, these three states and their 19 electoral votes will be blue for a generation. They will also likely be joined by Arizona, which might have joined the shift this year had it not been for the home turf advantage McCain enjoyed. Nine points separated the candidates in Arizona, and the state’s ten electoral votes are low-hanging fruit for the Democrats next election.
Latinos are the fastest growing part of the electorate and young voters are just beginning to define their political loyalties. Obama won both groups convincingly: 67% of Latinos nationwide and 66% of voters age 18-29. That bodes well for the future of the Democratic Party.
Update: Simon Jackman points out – in examining “change elections” – that Obama has been elected with the highest percentage of the popular vote of any newly elected Democrat since FDR.
Update: A good post from Crooks & Liars on the Latino vote, and a thoughtful piece at Salon about the demographics and the numbers.
Update: The invaluable Nate Silver has posted a table comparing Obama and Kerry’s numbers on the exit polls among all demographics.
I’m also pretty skeptical of pronouncing any great shift in America. As you note, the popular vote was alarmingly close. Meanwhile, Proposition 8 looks likely to pass in California, despite being one of the more liberal states in America.
Over the past four years, we’ve seen a shift of the GOP rightwards, with the Democrats following from the centre-left to the centre. It’s still too early to really tell anything, and I don’t want to draw too strong a link between an nationwide election result and a constitutional amendment in one state, but my feeling is that the shift — assuming there is one at all — has been what it means to be a Democrat, rather than in the views of voters themselves. The culture wars aren’t over yet.
Thanks for the thread, Mark!
I heard some really intersting numbers on MSNBC yesterday, but I imagine they were drawn from exit polling. For example, the Cuban emigres of Florida vote Republican en bloc, as you see in any group that has fled a left-wing regime (for example, all ex-Soviet Bloc Australians vote Liberal). However, their children do not seem to have done so; they voted for Obama 2:1 IIRC. One wonders about the sample size, of course, and whether they had previously voted solidly with their parents or had never bothered to vote. Thinking of comparisons with the children of emigres here.
Update: Some numbers on the youth and Latino votes:
Update: Simon Jackman points out – in examining “change elections” – that Obama has been elected with the highest percentage of the popular vote of any newly elected Democrat since FDR.
Update: A good post from Crooks & Liars on the Latino vote, and a thoughtful piece at Salon about the demographics and the numbers.
Political changes at state level are surely multifactorial.
The sub-prime crisis and its consequence of middle-class homelessness, especially in western states, is likely to have helped Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico to flip from Red to Blue.
Perhaps it was an extra factor, Katz, because there’s been evidence that they were heading that way for some years – before subprime.
The proposition 18 vote isn’t surprising. Especially in the US. Presumably strong Xtan beliefs in the “sanctity” of marriage influenced it. And there is a lot of, shall we say, unspoken uncomfortableness about gay people among straight people, even if they don’t want to admit it.Attitudes to sexuality is a demographic that crosses party lines in the States, (and here, I suspect). I did note CNN had a demographic for gay voters and they were all blue. But have no idea what the %s would be.
Another interesting minority demographic, mentioned in passing by Oprah, among first time voters for Obama, were the junkies. This is not an observation of veiled criticism of either. Just an instance of the extremely wide variety of Americans determined to have Obama as their president.
I take some heart from the Prop 8 vote being close.
I seriously don’t think you’d get majority support for a referendum on same sex marriage in Australia, btw (recognising that the California Prop was about stripping away existing rights).
Perhaps not in some of the large cities here, Mark, but elsewhere I suspect there would be a strong vote against it. Unfotunately both our democracies still operate on the principle that some people are more equal than others, regardless, for the US, of Obama being elected president.
Well, in part, Paul, in America – imho it’s a problem with trying to win rights through a judicial rather than a political process. But to discuss that further would take us way off topic!
Have finally caught up with all my fav. US sites and US msnbc shows etc and not so fav. ones and even Oprah and Southpark and fark…going to bed
Votin’ – this NYT’s map shows the change of voting patterns from 2004 – the country turned bluer just about everywhere except swathes of the south, Arizona and a few counties here & there in the boondocks.**
** But when you zoom into county level in the red states that turned bluer (not blue), they are pretty slim gains off a tiny base….lots of 23% to 25% stuff, and out of the city centres in the blue states in the mid west etc. likewise…
….and then there are all those bits that turned redder…. turn arounds of 10%-25% towards the Republicans from 2004 in many counties including many which were majority Democrat in 2004…… it’s like a very detailed map of where not to go in the USA.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html
And choose ‘Voting Shifts’ on the left of screen.
Update: The invaluable Nate Silver has posted a table comparing Obama and Kerry’s numbers on the exit polls among all demographics.
Re jo’s “very detailed map of where not to go”…the winner surely has to be Lonoke country Arkansas which went from 65% republican in 2004 to 73% republican in 2008. This county is actually right next door to Clinton’s home county (Pulaski) one of the few in Arkansas not to become more Republican, in all of which the vote was more or less unchanged.
Can there really be anything other than the obvious explanation as to why Obama is that much less popular than Kerry was in such places?
wizofaus wrote:
They may have been voting for Palin. It’s god fearin’ and gun lovin’ and truck drivin’ country there who may have responded to Kerry’s military service. Then again…
(note – I think the racism thing is plausible, but there are other potential explanations that might give pause for thought).
The red bits that turned redder? It’s Appalachia, folks – which is not the same as the ol’ South. (There’s pockets of pro-Palin swings in Pennsylvania, for example). Scots-Irish settled there in the 18th century and mostly stayed put for the next 300 years in isolation and poverty. They’re the bunch that people make hillbilly jokes about. But they don’t always get along with their lowlands cousins, which is why many of them fought for the North – the state of West Virginia. Very “conservative”, in the original sense of the word.
The pro GOP swing maps only loosely with Appalachia.
For example, only the southern extreme of West Virginia appears to have been infected.
And the red rash extends right across the lowland parts of Tennessee into Arkansas.
But Jo’s brilliant map does show just how contiguous is that red swathe starting in Southern WB and ending in Arkansas.
My guess is that most of those counties are rural, poor, fundo protestant, not many Blacks, or any other minority polulations — yesterday’s America.
The other maps are really good value too – the County Bubble and County Leader maps esp. Sliding the County Leader map from ’92 to ’08 it’s interesting to see the juncture between candidates, timing and demographics played out.
Mark, there were a lot of happy little parallels between our Federal election and the US’s including the Possum Pollytics & 538.com emergences – who could have predicted that – well, maybe those two.
Katz, in many of the Arkansas and Olkahoma counties that became even redder there’s up to 18% Native American populations. Not sure how they predominantly voted.
David, it’s not obvious why too many people would have preferred Palin to Bush though. Unfortunately these voters appear to think so differently from you or I that it’s probably pointless trying to second guess their motivation.
You’ve got me there wizofaus. My range of experiences don’t include habitually listening to Rush Limbaugh and nodding in agreement. I was merely making the point that while racism still exists in the US, it might not have been the primary electoral motivation of the reddening states. I wouldn’t underestimate the popularity of a figure like Palin to people who desperately need to hear the world is only 5000 years old, homosexuality is curable and the baby jeebus listens to your prayers.
Not to mention people who believe Africa is a country, not a continent.