Universities aren’t particularly exposed to the conventional economic cycle as such; while individual faculties gain and lose from various perceived worker shortages and gluts, the overall state of the economy doesn’t seem to matter much to the overall level of activity. Indeed, in some cases increasing unemployment might lead to more enrolments. In any case, if there’s a recession in the wind, I don’t notice it at work.
However, when I go out, perhaps it’s my imagination, but the bars and restaurants of inner Melbourne are a bit quieter than they usually are at this time of year. On a Thursday night, you generally expect them, while not to be packed, to have some level of buzz. Last night, they all seemed to be shutting early (rainy weather notwithstanding).
So, I’m wondering whether the LP readership have seen any signs of an economic slowdown in their daily lives. For instance, some of our regulars are small businesspeople – any change in your trading conditions? People being slow to pay? Trading down to lower-end products or services? For those who would like to provide first-hand info under a different identity than normal, please feel free…
Ex-colleagues and acquaintances have quietly put their retirement plans on hold.
The sentence:
“I’ll be working till the day I die”
is cropping up more and more frequently in post-prandial conversation.
Luckily for the world, these folk who are dedicated to a literal lifetime of service to humanity are all baby boomers.
Over here in the West, we service predominantly the Mining sector, people are scratching their heads wondering what the fuss is about. Greatest fear is the media will talk Australia into a recession we didn’t need to have.
I’m hearing positive news from building sector too that new home buyers grant and the 2% rates cuts are starting to work. Even hearing talk of subbies being told not to expect much time off in January. If that proves true that’ll be a huge boost.
I think the media are also taking every piece of even mildly negative news and collating it all to say “see its terrible out there”
Rio dropping production for 6 months by 10% is nothing but media says evidenc eof sky falling
Alcoa Wagerup expansion delayed is face value not good but even in booms a few projects get delayed because costs ramp up so much. This is potnetial jobs delayed not actual existing jobs lost
Fin review has had article where lists of the jobs lost this year in mining sector as evidence of big trouble but the total comes to less than a thousand. That’s barely natural attrition and again in any boom at any point in time a mine is coming to the end of its life.
What I have noticed is if you are 1 day late in paying a bill you get a letter but nothing more severe than that.
Getting equipment finance has been marginally more protracted.
That said I wouldn’t want to be in hospitality etc as they will get belted so long as media keep telling everybody the sky is about fall in.
So over here in my neck of the woods its still fingers crossed that it won’t be too bad. The China stimulus package will be very important to us.
As a West Aussie I’d be very interested to hear first hand views of how it is in NSW. Media suggests its a disaster but is it?
The three Melbourne universities currently engaged in rounds of voluntary & involuntary redundancies are all linking their activities to the current state of affairs.
Most of our downturn is directly attributable to drought, not economic conditions per se. The dollar dropping actually helps a lot of our clients (who are spread across the country).
I think my parents (boomers) are planning to put back their retirement, same as most people that age. I feel a bit sorry those who have already pulled the plug on their careers and have seen their income drastically drop.
I think the rapid currency drop will have a bigger impact in the short term. All sorts of imported goods are going to have massive price increases, so I probably wont be buying new computer stuff.
New computer stuff I might need to buy anyway because I’ve just become a statistic in the beginning of the economic-down-turn crime wave.
Laura: I suspect those three Melbourne universities are either a) fudging, or b) telling outright porkies.
Yes Robert, it’s way too convenient. Still it does give them a very good excuse for getting rid of more staff. I don’t suppose universities are the only employers who’ll be doing that.
I’m delaying buying books on Amazon because of the plunge in the dollar if they’re over say, 15 dollars. I’m hoping the dollar will have improved by the time I get my 1400 in December.
Walking around Armidale, I seem to notice a lot more houses up for sale than normal, but that might just be my imagination. And a couple of small businesses in one of our new beaut Plazas have closed down, and there a a few vacant shop premises, but that’s not really too unusual.
No drop in trade to report.
However, many suppliers have exhibited the following changes of behaviour:
Reps will no longer be calling fortnightly, but more like quarterly,
Reps have had their wine & dine budget slashed,
Supplier staff have been urged to take as much leave as they wish,
Suppliers who for years have only talked multi-hundred thousand dollar multi-unit deals, are now talking “one unit only if you like” deals with all sorts of price cuts or incentives.
“Greatest fear is the media will talk Australia into a recession we didn’t need to have.”
Kingsley, much of the media negativity is driven by Turnbull and the opposition cynically talking down the economy and those who are managing it to supposedly win an obscure political point.
Confidence is being dragged down by the constant bagging. They should be bloody ashamed of themselves and it is too bad the media has yet to call them on it.
I know this could be OT, but its sort of relevant – I predict this current G20 Summit will be an absolute failure. GWB will be busy preserving unregulated free market capitalism and everybody else (I think) will be wanting to go back to old-fashioned semi-planned economies that work. So we’ll be seeing a lot more chill winds in our local environments, at the very least, till the next conference under Obama, and probably after. Maybe we could have a thread on the G20?
Excellent thread, Robert, btw.
Ah, Robert: the old Bar & Beer Index, eh? You party animal, you!
Second Katz on the Baby Boomers reconsidering their retirement plans: the professionals are looking for a bit of part-time work or increasing what they’d planned (“I might try to get 3 days a week instead of 1″). They usually say that’s because the superannuation annual report they received in recent weeks showed a loss on their accumulation fund. Can’t blame that directly on Fannie Mae (she mae sae they’re related, but she’s always been a bit of a ‘post hoc propter hoc’ kinda gal).
The availability of part-time work (casualisation) really does allow more flexibility and hence finely adjusted, responsive planning, as Mark observed a coupla weeks ago. But that’s for working professionals. Is it more difficult for the working class? How are the unemployed going? No Kevvie Christmas bonus??
I was out in Melbourne last night as well and I thought the city seemed about the same. But whenever you have a boom you’re going to have a bust.
Recently it’s become much easier to find a park on Thurs evenings at my local supermarket in western Sydney. Checkout queues are shorter too. Much mortgage fear in these parts.
My wife (until recently) worked for one of the major hotel chains. They were all forwarded an internal email stating that the group had gone from “on budget” in one quarter to $30m under budget by the next. Result? A freeze on all new employment (unless ratified by head office) for 12 months.
Locally, up here in Hicksville, we’re probably in a similar boat as the West. The resources sector still appears to be going along okay, but there are signs that some of the marginal operations will be shutting down (particularly if they’ve not actually started producing ore yet) – although, this was always going to happen as much of the ore is unviable unless the prices are in stupid territory.
We also have other demand drivers on the horizon, like moving the 3rd Battalion up here. On that count alone, we have 1500 troops (and for some, their families as well) that all need to be accommodated … somewhere. Chalco moving into Bowenwood will also have a local impact.
We also have a large industrial base that has a track record of surviving in lean times as well as a diverse resources background (so not only mining, but agriculture – Beef, Sugar, Bananas, etc). Sorry, I’m starting to sound like a salesman – but we’re probably positioned better than most to ride some of these waves.
Our achilles heel may well be our appetite for margin lending. There’s been rumours circulating that some in the city have been tempted into these “get rich quick” schemes where folks are encouraged to leverage any equity they have to make more money in the market. All great in a bull market – but once it goes south … well, all manner of problems emerge. Words like “scandal in the making” are now being bandied about as these problems come home to roost for some of the local “well heeled” – which, in turn, could have an impact on our local economy.
Ambigulous: not something I do super-regularly, but my partner and I went to see Martha Wainwright and felt like a beverage afterwards…
joe2: for that matter, Labor have been laying on the “hard times ahead” schtick a little bit too thick for my liking as well.
Predicting them too loudly and strongly is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Voluntary redundancies called for (and over-subscribed to!) in the business consulting side of our company. About 15% of the division from memory. The bosses were probably surprised that so many wanted to get out.
I’m in an export service, and the dollar drop can only help us, but we’re slaves to the fortune of the overseas parent and they’re not so strong. At this stage we can see six months of work, which is about as far as we normally see.
I work in Retail at a KMart store (in Southern Sydney) so I get plenty of chance to see Capitalism at work, and I must say we have remained packed out – the local store has always been busy, I struggle to get a parking spot. Lots of calls come in all day from people buying rather expensive items (such as BBQs), etc. So no, I personally haven’t noticed anything like that. I have noticed my father has had to move around the company he works at to ensure he still has a job and he has had to make some people redundant himself.
So yes and no.
I haven’t noticed much drop-off when Im out and about – though I do know a few people who had jobs lined up whjich they ddint get owing to last minute suspension on new employment.
On Unis – yes, their relationship to economic cycles is quite indirect, however, there are mass redundancies (100s) at Latrobe, VU and Melbourne.
The thing Uni managers never seem to get: whe they are making that many people redundant at one time, its is simply, be defnition, a reflection on how badly they have dont their own jobs over the last few years. Its effectively an admission of their own gross incompetence – and yet they blather out there like their some hardheads reluctantly taking the tough calls.
They’re a bunch of no-hopers who should RESIGN. One less DVC means 5 teaching academics keep their jobs. I know who’s “redundant” in that equation.
And here’s a proofread version of that same rant, this time in Anglais, rather than hi-pace webscreed
”
On Unis – yes, their relationship to economic cycles is quite indirect, however, there are mass redundancies (100s) at Latrobe, VU and Melbourne.
The thing Uni managers never seem to get: when they are making that many people redundant at one time, its is simply, by definition, a reflection on how badly they have done their own jobs over the last few years. Its effectively an admission of their own gross incompetence – and yet they blather out there like their some hardheads reluctantly taking the tough calls.
They’re a bunch of no-hopers who should RESIGN. One less DVC means 5 teaching academics keep their jobs. I know who’s “redundant” in that equation.”
CountArach – Kmart stores doing well could in fact be a sign of people making somewhat cheaper purchases (without wanting to cast any aspersions on the good people at Kmart yadda yadda).
Robert, sorry. Wasn’t suggesting you’s a soak
Here’s to the good times!! My shout !!!
Since the new and expanded definition of ‘baby boomer’ came into vogue (it originally referred only to the people born in the 5 years or so after WW2), I belong in that category and have not even considered retiring, so am not having to change any plans. But I too feel for the people who retired a year or two ago and are now bitterly regretting it.
The only thing I’ve noticed recently (as distinct from the anecdotals, which are constant, as here) is that I was in the city shopping the other day in the big department store that is not Myer, at a nondescript time on an ordinary working day, and each of the three times I rocked up to the counter (coffee mug, socks, big hat for watching the Leonard Cohen outdoor concert from under), not only was there nobody behind it but there was no member of sales staff anywhere in sight. I’m sure there are only about half the staff there used to be. I wonder if they’re saving as much in salaries as they must be losing in sales.
Bet lots of staff would have materialised near the front door if you’d strolled out of the shop with the mug, socks & hat, P’sC.
“I wonder if they’re saving as much in salaries as they must be losing in sales.”
A lot of businesses are under this delusion, Pav. I blame recent management ideologies. And yes, I’m looking at you QANTARSE.
Staffing freeze at my workplace. No sackings or redundancies, but then again, no replacing turnover either.
That’s life in Mogadishu, New South Wales.
Ambig: never thought you were implying that, but happy to take you up if you’re in Melbourne some time…
“That’s life in Mogadishu, New South Wales.”
It’s tough on these mean streets at the moment, Liam. The buskers are getting more creative in order to be heard above the sobbing and moaning from workaday passers-by trudging to their staffing-frozen offices. I’ve heard reports of them playing saws and other tools with violin bows, frantically wringing music out of them for a few dropped silver coins. Or perhaps that means the violins have been pawned? Whatever the reasons, things look grim.
Usyd has announced budget cuts in response to a decline in investment income, but no plans to cut staff appear to be on the horizon (because thankfully the university admin, unlike that of most universities in this country, has figured out that reducing the number of teaching staff and the number of subjects offered does not actually make you a better university). However, departments are still being told to trim their budgets, the COO’s suggestions including less spending on overseas trips to conferences and that sort of thing. Apparently the campus infrastructure people are also delaying the expansive campus redevelopment plans, which is a shame but is probably unavoidable.
Klaus, there was a woman playing a steel saw in the Devonshire St tunnel when I walked through it the other week. I couldn’t work out whether she was really good at it or really bad.
BTW, all credit to Geoff Honnor for the phrase Mogadishu NSW. The lowered Honda CRXes of Norton Street are replacing their fully sick subwoofers with RPKs and belts of ammunition in compliance.
“However, departments are still being told to trim their budgets, the COO’s suggestions including less spending on overseas trips to conferences and that sort of thing. Apparently the campus infrastructure people are also delaying the expansive campus redevelopment plans, which is a shame but is probably unavoidable.”
Hey Bryn, at my university, we get emails telling us not to make phonecalls unless it’s an emergency.
On the other hand, USyd are trying to use their
gamblinginvestment losses as leverage in the current round of enterprise negotiations.Laura — from David Lodge’s Nice Work, set in the north of England in 1986:
At least she still had tutorials. I gather they are largely a thing of the past.
The lefties here will be pleased to know that I, as a self-employd RWDB am being right royally screwed.
Revenue has almost halved.
Third of my staff have been let go – so far.
Looking at selling the cars, next. Then the house as last resort.
Just found the money for the BAS last quarter. No idea how I am going to pay the tax man for FY08.
“No idea how I am going to pay the tax man for FY08.”
Shouldn’t you have put away cash to pay for tax liabilities?
I’ve a friend who works for a small pearling company here in Broome who told me last weekend that there are currently no buyers for the pearls they produce. I think that he was referring to the wholesale side of things but presumably this flows on to retail too. They need to cut costs by 60% (wonder how they will do that?).
Elsewhere in Broome things don’t seem to different though the real estate agents look downcast compared to a year or so ago.
You’re a class act, Spiros.
Best wishes, Razor.
Can’t say I’ve noticed it…my wife was trying to find a hotel room for this weekend and couldn’t find anything suitable…spent last Sunday down in St. Kilda and it was packed as usual, including Luna Park, and we couldn’t find a restaurant without outdoor seating (there was a 30min wait for indoor seating at the Stokehouse).
I’m off to the US in a few weeks, will be interesting to see if there’s any noticeable change there since I was last there in February (the weather won’t be much different at any rate – just lost of snow).
Most small business in Australia hasn’t the cash to meet their current liabilities. Ever.
They are depending upon income to arrive while the cheque is in the mail. Putting cash aside for the BAS is something for pipe dreams.
I often wonder what would happen to the country if there was a “freeze” & all bills had to be paid up to date before any more trading could occur.
Au contraire, Razor, I’m sorry to hear it. I too am self-employed, cultivating adaptability like crazy and distributing tiny eggs among an assortment of disintegrating baskets.
Spiros: if only it were that easy. Like SATP have said, most small businesses live much of their existence hand to mouth.
Razor: very sorry to hear of your difficulties. Hope your business picks up again soon. Are you prepared to say (in general terms) the sector it’s in, and the location?
We are unexpectedly having trouble letting a house. From stories of people queuing and bribing agents to get a rental, the rental market has suddenly tipped into slowdown due to people’s plans to buy with the higher first home-buyer’s grant and the lower mortgages. Or so it seems.
Sorry to hear it, Razor. Hope things turn around for you.
Best of luck Razor.
Not pleased at all Razor. Hope you make it through.
Overall, IT industry will likely see a decline in hardware sales due the downturn and also because the rise in price due the falling dollar. Paradoxically, there a signs that companies are wanting consolidate infrastructure to reduce long terms costs. Storage will be the winner here.
However, the services side of the IT industry (my bread and butter) should do well. Companies will try and do more with less (especially staff) meaning plenty of scope for services to plug the gaps.
Most small businesses, if they don’t have cash in the bank, have a working capital facility to help manage their cash flow.
Any small business that has to wait for cash to come in the mail before they can pay their bills is asking for trouble. Boom times help hide a lot of bad business practices, but they get exposed very quickly in a downturn.
I wish you well Razor. Best of luck when (if) the ATO lawyers knock on your door. I hear they can be real bastards and like to make examples out of people.
wizofaus
If it was a hotel in Melb she sought, the Andre Rieu concerts this weekend might explain the shortage
Razor – that’s hard. Best of luck, and hoping the taxman buggers off for a while.
Interesting theory – one review I found claimed that his crew required 15000 hotel nights for their Australian tour – assuming ~1000 of them were for Saturday night, plus, say, another 1000 for long-distance fans needing to stay the night (out of an expected audience of 20000), then you might be on to something. But the fact that such a concert has no trouble selling out hardly spells recession…
Things are so bad in Hobart Real estate that my Mum’s neighbour cant sell, and has recently taken to trying to sell my Mum the land between their two houses.
Happily, she has a lawyer (inter alia) for a son – turns out she ahs an easement over the land anyway, so she gets to use it without paying rates, as is.
She was relieved to receive my advuice against purchase. But now she wont pay up on my bill, charged in 6 minute blocks. Some people huh?
*Fingers crossed* for you Razor.
Wizofaus, the Andre Rieu concerts were sold out months ago.
Melbourne was the last place to sell out, and many of the ticketholders for Melbourne performances are people from interstate who were unable to get tickets for performances closer to home.
There are a LOT more than a thousand overnighters using hotel rooms after enjoying his show. A LOT more.
Good luck Razor.
From the mortgage belt in Melbourne’s outer suburbs (outer west to be exact) there have been a couple of things that have been signs of nervousness about the economy, or at least a realisation of the need to tighten belts a bit:
1 – The real decrese in interest for people to sign up to Foxtel. The seemingly ever-smiling Foxtel salestypes at the stall around our not-so-new and you-beaut shopping plaza seem to have had a lot less to do of late.
Maybe the slashing of the minimum sign up period (24 months to 12 months) is an indication that Rupert’s minions are aware of the problems and trying to con, sorry, attract, more people in for a shorter period of time on contract.
2 – Shopping by hampber. Many many people I know who each year religiously sign up to receive Chrisco and Castle grocery packages have, almost as a universal feeling, put the kybosh on it for 2009.
Many of them looked at the new 2009 catalogue, the packages that were on sale and the prices that are quoted and decided, like us, that they were no longer value for money (whereas two or three years ago they weren’t bad in many respects).
Increased costs and decreasing content (sounds like Foxtel actually) seem to be the trend. What many people I know are doing instead are just putting the certain amount of money away each fortnight/month that would normally be spent on these hampers, but planning to use it to do a couple of big pantry/freezer stock up shopping expeditions in June and December.
It’ll be interesting to see if there are any murmurs of problems with these hamper companies in the near future.
People do however still seem to have money for a decent coffee each day, according to my friends in the cafe industry! But I guess that shouldn’t come as a surprise in Melbourne…
“But the fact that such a concert has no trouble selling out hardly spells recession…”
No, but it says a lot of things I’m feeling too nice to spell out. As my mumsie always said, if you can’t think of anything nice to say, link to somebody else saying something nasty:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=rsNoSXv0H7g
SATP, FWIW, I was implying 1000 rooms, not 1000 individuals. At any rate, I’m agreeing that it’s a plausible enough theory that the Rieu concert is the main reason that Melbourne CBD hotels are booked out this weekend.
There’s no accounting for taste I guess
Andre Rieu brings classical music to people who wouldn’t otherwise go near it. Putting him and his audiences down is pure snobbery.
Spiros – yes I should of but then I didn’t expect such a large fall in revenue with costs relatively fixed. (Do you think I should fire some more staff?)
Thanks to all for the best wishes.
Robert Merkel – I am a Financial Adviser and I charge a fee based on a percentage of the funds under advice and specialise in direct investment rather than using fund managers. Basically look at the chart of the ASX for my revenue line – things were great until Novemebr 07. Unfortunately my costs aren’t quite as flexible.
Saw my GP last week to get some sleeping tabs and something to settle the guts – he said I was the second Financial Adviser he had seen that day with the same issues. I was hardly suprised.
It could be a lot worse. I am lucky to have a wonderful wife, two beautiful kids and very supportive family and friends. (They’ll need to be when I start lookign for somewhere to move to!)
And as you will all see I am a “victim” of the credit crunch – this has not reduced my support of free and competitive markets. It just really blows at the moment.
The more masculine half of our household is in the Gold Coast building industry. Not in straits quite as dire as Razor’s, but planning anticipating that we’ll be there soon.
We don’t normally have to scrounge around to pay the BAS, but when everyone starts stretching payment from 30 to 60 to 90 to whatever they can get away with forward planning goes out the window. At the same time our biggest suppliers are shortening credit from 90 days to something they seem to be making up as they go along.
It seems that if you’re somewhere between small small and large small business you’re in a bit of trouble.
wizofaus,
yes I heard similar figures about the crew he brings. BTW, most tickets for his concerts probably pre-booked, well before the financial changes since mid-October. It may be that “big occasions” like AFL Grand Final, are less affected by a downturn. Save on the smaller things: eating out, long drives, interstate holidays, magazines; eating, breathing…..
Markets go down quicker than they go up, therefore you can make money quicker when blood is flowing in the streets.
The trick is to know when they are going down.
I haven’t met a financial adviser yet whom I’d trust to give me that kind of info.
As a citizen of a rural area celebrating its third consecutive good season after a “series” of droughts (more like the same one since 1990) I agree with David Rubie @ #4. Life in rural areas, towns and cities, does depend more on good/ bad seasons & farm-commodity prices than on Global financial boom/busts- so much local business depends on rural wealth & farm-support industries – and “business confidence” is linked to those; but there are other factors as well.
Here, the real retail shift started much earlier, with the 1980-March 83 commodities bust, drought & Swiss loans affair. As rural produce prices were fairly consistently low until recently (only since mid07 have the West’s & Downs rain patterns returned to widespread and “normal”) business & incomes of those dependent on good rural prices – and the city itself- have been affected for decades. Pigotts closed 1991; the last of 4 national-standard art galleries in 1998 (saving me a packet!). Peripheral shopping “malls” (and Myer “Grand Central”) killed the old shopping centre & local businesses that had been there over a century; and Ebay killed a multitude of “antique” & “knick-knack” shops (a few still survive). Franchises & corner stores apart, business moved out of local ownership.
Meanwhile, the road trip to Brisbane became shorter & easier to drive (trip time’s halved since 1970), Brisbane shops are open weekends (Local Supermarkets are forced to close Saturday c5.30; major retailers after lunch Saturday); however “small chain” stores (Betros Bros, Coco’s) that are classified as predominantly Green Grocer/ “corner stores” but are well-stocked mini-supermarkets, aren’t bound by the same rules. In the mid-80s, Toowoomba PYC instituted Sunday Markets, including produce and “Home made” as well as Flea. Much of the produce comes from surrounding fruit & veg farms, and is fresh & very cheap. During the drought, more & more farmers, inc olive growers & vineyards, began selling “CWA-style” products. In three decades, a gracious, elegant, “arty” old (& ultra-conservative) city took a fast lift down-market.
As, since mid07, the weather has been good to the grain farmers, raining at the right time but dry for harvest (those contracts are in US$), there are hints that long-gone buoyancy might return. As Aged Care is a major industry & facilities abound for intellectually and physically impaired, the Gov Christmas Bonuses will make more of an impact than in large non-rural cities.
Australia is, as many soap-box orators say over & over, two nations; big cities largely independent of the resources sector (mine as well as farm), but affected by Global financial roller-coasting; and smaller cities & towns that depend on more seasonal industries & international commodity prices (often not overly related to financial booms/busts). However town-planning and state laws, decisions by government departments, and banks / food producing companies (as well as major shifts in buying patterns, like Ebay) can, in fact, “kill off” local industry.
After almost three depressing decades, South Qld’s Golden West is looking good again. Long may it last.
I have noticed for lease signs sprouting on residential properties in Caulfield and empty shops in Chapel St. Landlords have to drop the rent to fill a vacant property.
Self funded retirees I know are checking how much income they will be getting after the latest round of stock market plunges making it harder to fill group overseas travel packages.
The Snowgum Warehouse sale in March was selling Winter 2008 catalog items 40% off. Must have thrilled the retailers.
The dollar drop has been great for those who work in the IT industry doing work for overseas companies. I’d be quite happy for it to drop even lower.
I have noticed that there are a lot more kids and families at the play centres that the Hbomb drags me too. up until about six months ago it was rare to see another bloke, today there were six or seven in the centre near Southland, Melb, with partners and kids, all with slightly bemused and tense expressions, tho that could be the noise. The same goes for the pool next door, more than a few bored looking dads around.
The ‘make lots of mess with paint and glue’ session i take the Hbomb to has about half the participants than the beginning of the year. And Dr Honey has been getting phone calls from various gymbaroo type things and music classes for sign ups for next year. That seems early.
Good luck to all the small business types.
Razor – hang in there. My previous job was public accounting and I had handful of clients who missed BAS payments. I can assure you that the ATO if contacted reasonably early and honestly will give you potentially quite generous terms to make up a BAS liablity. You’ll still get stung the near 15% general interest charge and you’ll have to jump through a few hoops but contrary to popular belief if you are straight up with them they are pretty fair. Don’t make a rod for your own back though and set a too short a timeframe to pay off debt.
Spiros, that’s ok – proud and unrepentent snob here
I will say though, while I used to despise Strauss waltzes 10 years ago, I can enjoy them once in a while now. Still wouldn’t take ‘em to a desert island with me.
OK Spiros, so UB40 are beyond reproach as well?
Michael Bolton?
Why bother criticising anything? As long as someone somewhere likes it, there’s nothing to be said.
FDB, I think Rieu is kitsch and I wouldn’t go his concerts if you paid me. But each to his own.
Razor, I hope things improve for you. There’s enough to worry about when you’re self-employed without getting an ulcer over how you’re going to pay those hungry bastards! I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you.
For the rest, wot SATP said.
BTW, PC, are you still interested in a cray? The beach price hit $105/kg this week.
Tassie kicks in tomorrow, so I’ll be interested to see what their catches are like. They usually bring in tonnes at a time, but if they also have poor catches the sh*t fight among exporters will epic. So start putting some money in the piggy bank if you want a feed for Xmas and pull up a chair to watch the fun.
I think we can almost get a feel for what’s happening looking at this list of responses…Razor and others in the financial industry have felt an immediate sharp shock while delaying factors (China for resources, etc) are slowing any follow-on in other areas…Talking of which, my best wishes to those in this situation…
As for laboratories? We are starting to see a tailoff in sales as some private companies delay purchases (while they sort out if they do have the money). Service work hasn’t changed much, and the unis will still keep doing the usual “OMG, we have to use the last of our money before end-of-year” thang (not that I’m complaining).
We’ve been told to be a bit “tighter” with expenses but nothing major, and my job certainly isn’t at risk (thankfully).
Razor – don’t forget too you can lower your PAYG payments if last year was a good year and this year is shaping up as a shocker just don’t get too aggressive on it or again they’ll sting you the GIC.
The last three months there has been a distinct tightening in the IT jobs sector in Brisbane – from an already low base the result of a gradual slow-down from this time last year. Last year it was definitely a seller’s market but not year.
As for Rieu … he’s just not a valuable musical artist and his concerts destroy the very musical values they are alleged to transmit to the people who go to them. Oh so he’s bringing “classical music” to great unwashed masses is he? Well, the very same unwashed masses have managed the last 150 years to discover the western classical music tradition without the cheap anti-music gimmicks that Rieu embodies so well. There is nothing wrong with popular blockbusters – I am a big fan of the Hollywood movie industry – but they have to be vital to the artform and this Rieu is not!!! I love Strauss, and Tchiakovsky, and I despise Rieu for murdering their output. Die, Rieu, Die!!!
If you want “quality” and “accessible” classical music then I would highly recommend to attend on of the Australian Chamber Orchestra’s touring concerts – they do several a year all around the country. Here we have a local product of extremely high quality – comparable if not better than chamber orchestras overseas. And the last one I went to it a couple of weeks ago there were empty seats!!!
Kingsley – thanks – already done that on the PAYG – estimated down to $0 for last qtr and then going to try and manage it over next couple of qtrs so I end up square at end of FY.
I’m amazed that organisations still budget on this basis rather than allowing departments to carry over unused funds (and not penalise them). In a place I used to work we had govt organisations coming to us with $XX,XXX asking how they could spend it – they didn’t need what we sold to them, they just wanted to make sure their budgets didn’t get reduced the following year.
“FDB, I think Rieu is kitsch and I wouldn’t go his concerts if you paid me. But each to his own.”
See, now how is that different to what wiz or I or Shaun Micallef said?
You criticised people for liking Rieu. I don’t care whether they like him or not.
No I didn’t. I criticised the whole phenomenon. It’s mostly the hype and David Copperfield stage-fan antics that piss me off. That and half the post office taken up with his DVDs. Oh, and the casual slaughter of great music.
In a way you’re right, in that there’s always an implicit criticism of people who like something when someone says it’s shithouse. But like I said, that’s the nature of criticism.
I think you’re cross because you, like I, think the people who pay to see him are rubes (possibly you know one) and you feel sorry for them.
I can assure you that I know no one who will pay to see Andre Rieu.
I can equally assure you that I don’t feel sorry for the people who do.
Really, what is the problem here? So he slaughters great music. That doesn’t mean there is any less of great music, performed as it should be, for you to enjoy.
Slagging shit off isn’t always meant to be a productive activity Spiros.
Fair enough. Mind you, I got pissed on from a great height here for slagging off Kiwis.
Confession time!
Despite being a notorious Lefty Elitist, and admiring the skills of the players greatly, most classical music bores me to tears. Even the mere act of listening to it makes me feel like a preposterous wanker. A bit of solo Cello a la Yo Yo Ma is about all I cant stomach.
Opera a fortiori!
Actually, Dr Cat, that particular shop has been like that ever since it moved into its new premises.
“joe2: for that matter, Labor have been laying on the “hard times ahead” schtick a little bit too thick for my liking as well.
Predicting them too loudly and strongly is a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
I agree partly Robert. The government has probably overdone it a bit but obviously they would be crazy to pretend everything is rosey. What Turnbull and co have done is constantly piss on everything done to support the economy in a completly irresponsible manner. It is pretty clear they would happily do anything to create chaos enough to achieve their grubby political ends.
Most small businesses, if they don’t have cash in the bank, have a working capital facility to help manage their cash flow.
It’s called “their house”.
Don’t like Rieu’s stuff? Don’t listen to it.
*simple*
I know people who have flown thousands of miles to attend Rieu concerts. They are thoroughly charmed by the event, & are buoyant for days afterward.
I admire his musical skills (he is one helluva lot better violinist than am I) and his organisational & business skills.
Until I have created as many jobs as has he, I’ll lay off any negative criticisms of the man. I expect the same from others.
Chris (a different one) @ 76,
Yes – the “use-it-or-lose-it” funding model seems to have also infused it’s way into the private sector…the truly tragic/comedic aspect is as you stated – all of a sudden there are funds available to purchase all kinds of add-ons that won’t get used. The worst example I’ve seen to date is a $50k instrument not being used at all…it just sits and gathers dust while some of our other customers are struggling with some 20-year-old pile’o'crap.
Quite frankly I’d rather they donated the money to keep Razor in business – at least then we’d know it would actively be helping the employment/cash-flow situation!
Back on topic – another factor in purchasing will be the AU$ – it’s been quite a shock to say the least for those of us who have to pay in US$ or EU!
Not good news Razor, and sorry to hear it. Hope you pull through.
I must say that it’s been really creepy waking up every morning to hear that there have been another 85,000 foreclosures in the US over the past month, Germany’s in recession etc.
Having said that, I work for a multinational in the mining industry in WA and, with a few caveats, I feel relatively well-placed, compared to say, hospitality.
I should add that I was hired at the peak of the boom – all of six months ago, when cash and opportunities were flying about like banshees.
But four weeks ago, as commodity prices began to plummet and credit for once stellar propositions like FMG dried-up (and sadly, Twiggy is down to his last $1b), there was a distinct chill-wind blowing through the office.
Major projects by BHP and Rio have been put on hold.
In short, nobody has the vaguest idea WTF is going on. We’re a teensy-bit comfortable (in that no one’s been sacked, but not replacing staff)and a teensy-bit extremely freaked-out.
And none of us would be in the least bit surprised to find a disappointing email from our multinational overlords sometime after Christmas.
And, well, you know the rest.
Craig Mc 86 – you are spot on – mine is on the line right now (not very helpful for domestic bliss!).
Craig McC #86:
“Most small businesses, if they don’t have cash in the bank, have a working capital facility to help manage their cash flow.
It’s called “their house”.”
Or it is called “their parents’ retirement fund”.
See, SATP, I have to suggest that in order to admire Rieu’s musical skills, you’d have to have pretty minimal exposure to genuinely gifted classical performers. I respect his ability to get a crowd going and put together a form of entertainment that pleases many thousands, and I don’t really think he’s doing any great harm to reputation of classical music, but it does make me somewhat sad that so many seem to prefer his methods of presenting such music, over watching someone like Itzhak Perlman or Joshua Bell give a stunning performance of, say, the Bruch violin concerto or even something as hackneyed as the Meditation from Thais but without the need for flashy sets and ice-skaters and fireworks: just timeless, great music presented as is that can stir sensations of awe and incredulity that I’m not sure can be matched by any other artform
Plus one for Shaun.. the IT industry seems to be splitting. I’m in consulting and it looks ok. I wouldn’t like to be selling boxes or hardware. Contracting is also looking grim. We are recruiting and the quality of resumes from contractors is fantastic compared to earlier this year.
Mining is still looking good for us and even the banks are still showing interest, but it’s all about business cases for saving money. No talk of expansion or adding features.
I did feel sorry temporarily for our GM yesterday. They locked their targets for return to the US head office with the dollar at 92c
Yeah well, tough titties. No-one gave a damn about non-resource exporters during the mining boom and the >90c dollar. No-one.
Mate, you have no idea what’s about to hit you. Go and check the spot iron ore price for a clue.
Speaking as the owner of a small export business that has been exposed to the U.S. recession for 15 months now, and brutal rise in the AUD since 2002, I am somewhat relieved that I am at least sharing the pain these days.
Forgot to add re Rieu.. we are hosting some friends tomorrow night to watch the Melbourne concert on fuxtel. They have no interest in classical music, but have a daughter enlisted to be an ice dancer for the show. No free tickets for cast members apparently.
She’s getting about $3K for the 4 weeks. Anyone have any ideas how they calculate the wages for that kind of thing?
I work in a newsagency on the southern end of the Gold Coast. Although the number of customers per se has not decreased (so we still need the present level of staff to run the shop – although some casual hours have had to be cut back), it is obvious that sales are down particularly in magazines and, for some reason, instant scratch-its.
In fact there have been articles on the decline in sales of various mainstream mags such as Women’s Day, NW, Women’s Weekly etc in the media sections of the MSM fairly recently, so it is hardly surprising that this is being reflected in the shop. However no one is buying other publications in their place either so this suggests to me a degree of cutting back on “discretionary” expenditure.
Lottery sales are holding up but I suppose it is fairly normal in “hard times” for people to hope for some lucky break. It’s also quite noticeable the increase in people putting relatively small purchases on their credit cards – and I don’t think it’s to get the (dubious) reward points!
96 allan – I can tell you that despite the logical stupidty of expecting to win a 1 in 45 milllion chance, hope springs eternal. Each time I fail to win it is a donation to the community things supported by Lotterywest.
Just a couple of hundred thousand would make a huge difference, let alone a few mill.
The Geek works in R&D to do with mobile phones. Their main customer has signed on for another year, they have a new round of venture capital funding, and there is a new customer in the pipeline. If he were in a large IT company, he thinks things would not be so rosy.
On our driving holiday a few weeks back, we didn’t see anyone else doing the same thing. NO cars with kids in the back. At all. Could have been the price of petrol, as this was early Oct. And in Mildura, you would never have guessed they were having a country music festival. Not that I was looking for the evidence; I am as interested in it as I am in Andre Rieu.
At work (TAFE), I am wondering where the students are. They should be doing assignments, but we just aren’t seeing them around the library.
There is a definite sense of impending doom around the simple living blogs I read, but the sample probably has Y2K tendencies.
And I thought everybody knew that gambling and charitable giving go up in bad times?
Another thing I noticed when I was up town yesterday is the numner of shops having sales. Now, is this just some kind of capitalist pre-Xmas manipulation to part us from our money, or is it a sign of retailers having to lower their prices to get shoppers to buy, because of lack of consumer confidence.
Paul B,
that sounds a bit early for the post-Christmas sales.
PB,
I agree, I see many sales, more than I have fingners to count the numners on.
Across the road to me lives a bricky who is never out of work. He is a preferred contractor of one of Sydney’s largest developers. Having just returned from a 4 month world cruise to his new 4 wheel drive BMW he still has more work than he can cope with. So he is shortly off on a central Europe excursion and cruise. He is good at it. But he does say that all of the building companies are laying off whole sale. As these people are usually independent contractors they do not appear on the statistics, but their reduced spending power will be felt before long.
The 8th of December is kick off date for part of the Kev stimulus package. The cheques arrive in pensioners and low income parents accounts just in time for Christmas spending. It will be very interesting to see how that little plan works.
I was reading an article in one of the Fairfax papers recently about how James Packer’s fortune is quickly disappearing, as American casino turnover has plummeted.
Carbonsink – the spot iron ore price is not the main game in Iron Ore. Its what RIO and BHPB get and they are tipping only a 20% cut which after a 75 and 85% rise for previous two years is still a great price.
Likewise on production RIO and FMG have made announcements of 10% cuts for maybe 6 months. Again I’d prefer it the other way but a long way from the end of the world.
Likewise I saw in West Australian on Friday various results for companies servicing mining sector and all are essentially saying the same thing. No noticeable change in activity so far.
Maybe that’ll change, my personal view is that the second half of next year (calendar year) could be when it starts to get hard for us depending on where commodity prices and their outlook sit then.
Thing I find interesting is even earlier this decade the USA represented around 1/3 of the World’s GDP now just a touch over 20%. China and India alone now 16%. If we go back to the 80-81 recession as the last real dinkum recession how much of the world economy did the US make up then? Maybe 40%? China was only just beginning on its transformation back to a market economy and India was still a Socialist protectionist mess.
That fact alone won’t stop the world sliding into recession but it could make it far less severe and shorter. The US will have to have a severe one. Its too late to save it but its impact on the rest of us is not as great as it use to be and some parts of the world will grow quite strongly through this period.
We also are benefitting from the much lower dollar. If it stays between 65c to 75c that will “solve” a lot of the price slump.
So don’t worry people in WA are watching very closely and trying to balance up all the signals coming in but so far there is also a reasonable amount of good or perhaps more accurately not bad news.
I was planning on working until I snuffed-it anyway.
As for changing culinary habits, bangers & mash suit me just fine. Never got the point of caviar and larks tongues in aspic.
Razor – I’m what many RWDB’s may refer to as a ‘barking moonbat’, and I’m not at all happy about your situation.
I wish you all the best and hope things work out quickly for you.
Look after yourself.
On Tuesday night I had cause to walk past around 12 local restaurants on the way back from local bottle-oh. I was puzzled that they all, good, bad and indifferent ones, were at least well patronised, some groaning at the seams.
Tuesday night, inner city Melbourne. Fearless spending unabated.
And Dr Cat, the Myer/David Jones shops, and their kin overseas have been trading with the exact “quality” of service for at least the entire noughties. If they are hit hard enough by the “crisis”, there’s not a whole lot of staff to spare. Next step will be somewhere east of self-service, and west of looting.
Just on Rieu. Hear Richard Tognetti’s comments (and a short demonstration) on Rieu’s schlagermusik from his recent appearance on ABC Radio National’s Music Show – http://www.abc.net.au/rn/musicshow/stories/2008/2405757.htm … also some interesting comments about music education.
kingsley @ 104 your optimism is admirable, but WA’s dirt-based economy is very susceptible to a sharp movements in the business cycle. When the world economy is booming WA does better than most, but when the boom busts WA is hit harder than most … because once the world decides it no longer wants your dirt there’s very little for the WA economy to fall back on.
We have just witnessed the bursting of the biggest credit bubble in history — much, much bigger than the credit bubbles the proceeded the Great Depression or the Long Depression. No amount of “fiscal stimulus” from China or anyone else can counteract the massive deleveraging that must happen over the next few years.
I export technology not dirt, so I’m cheering the dollar down all the way. Why the RBA feels it needs to intervene when the dollar hits 60c on the way down, but not when it hits 95c on the way up, is beyond me. Perhaps its part of their charter to defend the “right” of Aussies to cheap plamsa tellies and shopping trips to Paris? Who knows!
In my view a low dollar is unambiguously a good thing if your idea of “good” is an Australia that makes products and services that we sell to the world. That’s a idea that’s been very out of vogue in recent years, but perhaps its ready for a comeback?
Carbonsink has point, the Pilbara has twice in my lifetime been a case of “last man leaving for the south switch off the lights”.
kingsley @ 104, this may be of interest to you:
BHP faces ore export plunge