… and Malcolm Turnbull is approaching Brendan Nelson territory with the PPM at 66-19 in Kevin Rudd’s favour. Of course, political scientists know leadership isn’t that big a factor (and Turnbull’s inability to patch over the same divisions that plagued Brendan Nelson demonstrates that) and this poll may be a bit of an outlier anyway, but in the world of perception, this is the measure the press gallery have anointed. I imagine that it’ll allow them to play their favourite game of leadership speculation over summer. Last Christmas holidays, the Liberals were (supposedly) giving some attention to their long term structural problems. Maybe that was the shock of defeat, a defeat that as they regained their cockiness, they seem to have forgotten. Far too prematurely.
39 Responses to “Newspoll: Labor 59-41”
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Malcolm Turnbull is a turkey.
If we want an actual opposition, it will be under Peter Costello, or perhaps Joe Hockey.
They are all turkeys mate.
Jack
Bishop will be moved next year.
Turnbull will be dumped later in the year.
Costello will not take the job, why would he take a job where he is almost guaranteed to lose when he didn’t challenge for the real prize in more than a decade? There is absolutely nothing in it for Costello and I don’t think he has a soft spot of feeling of responsibility to the party.
Hockey will be next opposition leader – I suspect after they lose the next election though.
Watching the Howard years tonight, it reminded me of Keating’s perfect timing in goading Howard at the exact moment they were polling senior ministers over whether he should leave, prior to the 07 election. From memory he said it would be a coward’s act to bail at the last moment.
I’d wager Keating’s taunt would have helped removed any slim chance Howard was toying with of falling swordward. PJKs revenge.
Yeah Winston Churchill lost an election, sure. But he never lost his own seat
Churchill did actually, Lefty E.
He lost Manchester North West in 1908, when MPs had to resign and recontest on appointment to Cabinet. He was soon elected for Dundee, but he lost that seat in 1922. He stood unsuccessfully as a Liberal for Leicester in 1923, and then again as an independent for Westminster Abbey, winning Epping in 1924 and then rejoining the Tories in 1925.
http://www.winstonchurchill.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=710
Ah, but did he lose it as PM!!!?
He is and he isn’t. Turnbull’s approval rating is still 7 per cent higher than Nelson’s best result. The 47 per cent gap on PPM is 1 per cent worse than Nelson’s best, which happened when Rudd’s approval was 54 per cent rather than 70. That was in Nelson’s last poll as leader, funnily enough. Then came the financial crisis, since which time Rudd’s ratings have shot through the roof. I don’t think there’s much doubt that if this poll had come with Nelson’s leader, Labor’s 2PP would have a six in front of it.
@5 – nope!
Yes? And?
Sorry, not being snarky to you Mark. But just exactly in what position did all these journalists and others expect the Coalition to be 12 months after a bruising electoral defeat?
I know the wingnuts all expected the voters to have learned the error of their ways by now and for there to be mass rending of garments and gnashing of teeth and a great hue and cry about the land for the Coalition to resume their natural position on the government benches, but…
…here in reality, it’s only been a year. The new government is ascendant, the old government are in disarray.
In other news, water flows downhill and puppies are cute!
PS – All that means it’s too early to be writing Turnbull’s political obituary too…
“…here in reality, it’s only been a year. The new government is ascendant, the old government are in disarray”
And there’s a Global Financial Crisis underway, the Prime Minister is looking Prime Ministerial, Serious, Engaged and the Government is Acting. Not least in handing out 10 billion bucks to millions of Australians with an exhortation to spend and be merry.
Where the traction might be for any opposition in this scenario is hard to see.
Turnbull’s best asset is not being the excruciatingly embarrassing parody of a leader that Nelson was plus he has no competition. Joe Hockey is an affable bloke -so was Kim Beazley. Rudd would eat him alive. Tony Abbott is an ideologue in an era when ideologues are decidely out of fashion.
Is the Australian decrying Turnbull for not having a narrative?
“Turnbull’s best asset is not being the excruciatingly embarrassing parody of a leader that Nelson was”
Very true, but Turnbull has his own problems, such as (i) Julie Bishop as ST just when the economy is hitting the skids (ii) his own Messiah complex; Turnbull has got a big whiff of the Gough Whitlams about him (iii) his revanchist Right, who installed him only because the smell of Nelson’s corpse wa too much even for them to take, and could turn on Turnbull at any moment.
“Joe Hockey is an affable bloke -so was Kim Beazley.”
Yes but unlike Beazley, beneath Hockey’s avuncular style lies a very deep mean streak and ruthlessness to match. Hockey will take the leadership in a two stage process. Stage 1 will be to undermine Bishop and get himself installed as ST. He’s already using his position as shadow finance minister to comment on matters that belong to Bishop. Once so installed, Stage 2 will commence and he will build his profile and stalk Turnbull. Hockey will take over in 12 months, accept the inevitable defeat in 2010, and then build to 2013.
Joe Hockey fellers. He’s got “winna” written all over ‘im. I’d bet me last can of bundy on it. You watch over chrissy as Mal gets whiteanted while he’s overseas on one of them holidays in frickin Tuscany. Carn’t he go to the beach like evrybuddy else?
Sounds like a great story, Spiros. If it happens, it will be fun to watch.
You’ve all got it wrong. The Liberals need a steady hand, someone with the strength of his convictions. They need someone from the solid, no-nonsense NSW branch, not the wishy-washy Victorian or South Australian Cardigan Clubs, the deviated preverts out West or the lunatic-run cooperative you have up there north of the Tweed.
They need someone who knows about Leadership.
They need Hawkey.
Two months ago, Milne and co were running hard with the “one-term” government meme and before that there was what? — Rudd’s bad relations with the media, that the govt was only about symbolism, had no policies, trying to do too much and who knows how many others, all wheeled out in support of the “fact” that Labor were doing badly and probably on the way to crashing. Costello was still being touted as a saviour and if not him Turnbull was seen as the key to restoring Opp credibility. Even in this article, Shanahan spends the last third of it quoting Opp talking points and quoting Turnbull. No major point to make here; just that much of the media is still stuck in a LNP-as-govt mindset and really can’t accept that the Aust people really wanted a change of govt last year and are basically pretty happy with their decision.
“They need Hawkey.”
He and Sophie Mirabella together; the Dream Team.
“They need Hawkey”
Followed he link and ended up with a pile of stuff about Sarah Palin. Hmmmm.
Gimme some more sugar!
On a serious level, I think the person angling for Julie Bishop’s job, and ultimately the leadership, is Andrew Robb. Though I do think its much too early to write Turnbull off yet. If he keeps on suggesting tax cuts (to the rich?) as an alternative to another sugar hit around about Easter, though, his popularity will plummet. Rudd has obviously watched Howard closely as Ratty one election after election doling out middle-class/aged welfare. Rudd has obviously decided to do something similar, though he’s clearly much more sympathetic to the have-nots than the indebted middle class. And he will win election after election.
(Somebody should make a badge or a bumper sticker of it.)
I think some-one on another thread mentioned how Rudd is phasing out work for the dole by reducing its funding. We already know he and most of the ALP are more compassionate than the Libs. (No Peter Walshes in this ALP, thank whoever you thank.)
And just to stress the point and increase Rudd’s popularity, I repeat, gimme more sugar!
Hawkeye!
Turnbull actually reminds me of Andrew Peacock- smug yet charming, a Liberal yet not completely conservative, but ultimately not the person Australians want as PM.
Yes, he’s Peacock without the substance and charm.
It was, of course, never very likely that the Rudd government could stuff things enough to make them wildly unpopular within 12 months. What the opposition did in the first 12 months was also always likely to be pretty near irrelevant to what their electoral position will be in, say, the last 6 months of the term.
Yet we are getting the following of the polls by some at LP as if it matters: at a time when no significant Rudd policy has yet had time to have effect. For nearly everyone, being under Rudd for 12 months has been just like being under Howard, except with a big Christmas bonus to help pay of credit cards.
Let’s wait to see what will come home to roost out of various things like whether the stimulus works; how much deficit can the public be comfortable with; the misguided efforts on internet filtering; IR changes at a time of increasing unemployment; the already off-the-rails high speed internet project; and whether hospital performance does improve. Then worry about the polls.
Rudd will only be able to dish out middle class welfare if he keep the piggy bank full. It is easy to dish out the current surplus. So far there is no sign of any ability to replenish.
Wayne Swan is hopeless as treasurer, but Julie Bishop is not able to land a glove on him. If the opposition is run properly she will have to go. (So should Swan)
What’s with the use of the word ‘wildly’ to denote extremely, as in ‘wildly unpopular’ above? I think that the opposition would settle for a mildly popular government as opposed to the wildly popular version that they’ve got now.
Yes the steves from qld, things can change, but Rudd’s been faced with a generally hostile press and commentariate, a global economic crisis and sundry other problems, including a hostile senate. And you guys were probably telling us that the Burke affair, or some other confected outrage would be the end of him as opposition leader some 18 months ago, no doubt.
Watching Howard’s End last night (what a dismally bland conclusion to it all, much like the leader himself) made it clear that most Australians are simply glad to be rid of that mob of charlatans, hustlers and devious misfits. And then there’s Peter Reith.
“Rudd will only be able to dish out middle class welfare if he keep the piggy bank full”
Not at all. There is ample scope to go into deficit as the government has no existing debt. Even the business groups are saying that the budget should go into deficit. Only the oddest of odd balls is saying it shouldn’t.
How big a deficit? Well, the US has got s deficit of 8% of GDP. In our terms, that’s $80 billion. No one is saying it should be that much, but that another $25 billion or so of handouts wouldn’t raise a sweat with anyone.
adrian @ 26 “Rudd’s been faced with a generally hostile press and commentariate”
Pull the other one. The media fawns over the PM. The fact that it took a week for the media to work out that disclosing private conversations between the PM and POTUS is a pretty major diplomatic SNAFU is just one example. The gushing and outright partisan participation in the 2020 summit – need any more?
Admittedly this is probably the wrong crisis in which to have a former merchant banker as your leader, but I’m betting that the Libs won’t change leaders until after the next election (barring MT doing something really absurd). And I don’t see Rudd ever eating Joe Hockey alive. Keating would. But Rudd would have Hockey served medium rare with sauce bearnaise and pommes fondants, and some particularly difficult Debussy playing in the background. Agree with Lefty E that we will have to wait till after the next election for that; Hockey will be content to let MT lose the next one. Mercurius, I see no sign that the Coalition have thought any further about their defeat than “Noooo!”, and they should be past that now. And that’s why they’re on track to lose again.
Razor, if you can name one, yes only one, member of the commetariate or press gallery who ‘fawns’ over Rudd, then I will indeed pull the other one.
Until then you can keep pulling all you like.
I would have thought the reason the Australian took so long to reveal The American Imbecile’s Imbecility was because they were getting permission from Murdoch. After all, their boss is a supporter of the Republicans.
Na, that was about in-house Opposition Organ politics mixed with a breach in the code of “off the record” silence. Chris Mitchell carelessly leaked to Mathew Franklin further evidence of Dubbya being a dingbat. Which was roundly greeted by crys of “so wot” by anyone who was still awake.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20081117-Mungo-Get-off-the-pot-Chris-Mitchell.html
The Razor case for media ‘fawning’ is very, very weak.
If Hockey takes the leadership it will be a disaster for them. He’s got “WorkChoices” marked in big letters on his forehead.
Labor must have file footage amounting to hundreds of minutes of him talking up their shitty IR laws.
Pick a couple of grabs, interspersed with grainy background and foreboding music and voice-over, and they’ve got a ready-made scare ad that will have employees and their families lining up pre-dawn on polling day to vote against the miserable Liberals.
Razor, when people say a ‘hostile press’, what they mean is this:
Oz commentariat 2004-2006: “The Coalition is ahead in the polls because their government is good and right and represents the commonsense will of the people.”
Oz commentariat 2008: “Labor are ahead in the polls because their government is based on spin and shiny appearances and they have managed to fool the people into believing their spin.”
See the problem? They’re both subjective statements. That paper long ago gave up reporting in favour of attempted “agenda setting”.
Which is why the Oz has lost its credibility (that and two of their “star” writers assaulting people).
You forgot the nice chianti! Fffffffffff…..
Razor, I don’t think the meeja is “behind” Rudd — but I think that most of them have been giving the ALP an easy ride rather than actually doing any journalism. Where’s any in-depth criticism of Julia Gillard’s peculiar passion for Joel Klein? In the Letters pages, not by journos. Ditto the internet censorship stuff. It’s easier to regurgitate press releases (hello, Michael Brissenden) than become the next Laurie Oakes.
Paul Burns @ 20,
That was I that mentioned the fact the Rudd Government are reducing funding to Work For The Dole. The key is whenever there is a major announcement (the big payments for pensioners) just look for something buried on say page 13.
No one wants it known they’re looking after the unemployed.
Thanks, Jacques.
Very interesting to read it
