Comments on: Victorian transport plan released

By: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 11:14:59 +0000

I suspect a lot of road spending is hidden in the $650 million cost for the South Morang extension My Rant

By: Pollytickedoff

Pollytickedoff — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 05:24:48 +0000

“Therefore, capital works with ongoing costs lower the department’s ability to undertake capital works in future years, all things being equal.”

No wonder there has been SFA infrastructure spending if that is their rationale. By that logic no capital works would ever be undertaken because they will inevitably lead to increased ongoing costs.

The exception of course being roads where the costs are never too high to justify the expenditure no matter how small the benefits may be.

By: Russ

Russ — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 02:49:46 +0000

FS, it isn’t entirely a theory, despite my facetiousness. I was at a budget briefing a few years ago, where it was explained that extensions generally add to “on-going” costs, in a manner that implied that this was very bad. The budget is fixed by Treasury, and they like to maintain spending from year to year. Therefore, capital works with ongoing costs lower the department’s ability to undertake capital works in future years, all things being equal. You’ll notice that none of the monetary figures quoted in the VTP actually mention changes to transport subsidies.

By: feral sparrowhawk

feral sparrowhawk — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 02:19:07 +0000

Robert, I don’t know. But they do. Basically they seem to have a conditioned opposition to all the extensions on rail lines to the outer suburbs.

I went to a talk by some senior bureaucrat praising Eddington’s multibillion dollar tunnels to the skies where he dismissed the idea of the Roweville line on the basis “you’d have to build seven bridges”. As if that would make it remotely as expensive as kilometers of tunnels, or for that matter eastlink, which involved quite a few more tunnels than that.

When South Morang came up he developed a pained expression and said something about how he supposed it would be built “eventually”. It looked like he hoped to have retired long before. Russ’s theory might be right, but I can think of others, none of them all that convincing.

By: Russ

Russ — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 14:43:30 +0000

Rob, the department hates all extensions. They throw the budget figures out – Treasury gets narky. Not many people travel to points along the line, so the extension just means the train travels further, with fewer people per km, and therefore less economically. Because it takes longer you need more rolling stock, and more employees, and if it pushes the city end closer to capacity it lowers reliability and requires you to timetable more services. From a purely budgetary perspective, it is much better if the people drive to the end of the line, and then travel from there.

By: Russell

Russell — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 12:47:48 +0000

If I remember correctly we in WA paid cash for our new railway – that’s why it looks cheap. It was planned to borrow for it but because it was running over budget and we had truckloads of mining royalties coming in we just used the windfall to pay for the line – minus the interest payments it could be said to have been completed almost on budget. If the Victorian government hasn’t got the cash and has to borrow for its projects, they will cost a lot more.

The less said about our ex-transport minister the better ……

By: Robert Merkel

Robert Merkel — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 11:09:08 +0000

FS: why does the department hate the South Morang extension?

By: Bird of paradox

Bird of paradox — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 05:06:32 +0000

Andos: MacTiernan’s now the oppposition spokesman for the stuff she used to do. She should’ve been opposition leader, but that went to Eric Ripper, and the deputy position went to a guy who damn near lost to an independent in the Perth equivalent of Altona. Factional deals, ya gotta love ‘em.

How on earth has Myki cost $1.4 billion? I can’t find the info on our Smartrider, but I’m sure it didn’t cost anywhere near that. We built a dirty great big railway for not much more than that, and Smartrider only took about a year to get working (and maybe another six months to get all the bugs out).

And yes, the trickle over east will turn to a torrent as soon as the mining boom goes down and the reality of the new govt sets in. I’ve finished uni just at the wrong time to be making money in WA, so I can see myself in Melbourne before too long.

By: feral sparrowhawk

feral sparrowhawk — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 02:11:47 +0000

It’s possible the cost estimates are a function of being spooked by myki and fast rail, but I take a more cynical view. The department hates the idea of the South Morang extension. Always has. They’re picking figures out of their posterior in the hope the cost will be so high the government won’t build it, and the minister is stupid enough not to ask questions.

It’s a win/win for the people at transport. Most likely the extension doesn’t get built, which is what they want. If it does, at a quarter the cost they quoted they get to claim that it is their brilliant cost savings that done it.

By: Andos

Andos — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 01:16:54 +0000

Bird of Paradox: What’s MacTiernan up to these days anyway? I wouldn’t be surprised if the Perth to Melbourne exodus increases by an order of magnitude over the next few months, as Canal Colin starts to sink in.