Comments on: Speaking of Queensland politics… http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/ Life, Culture and Politics from BrisVegas Tue, 14 Feb 2012 06:30:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: steve http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186974 steve Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:31:13 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186974 In the interests of fairness if the March Newspoll was to break for some inconceivable reason towards the Liberal National Party then from a technical chart analysis point of view it would herald massive problems for Labor. It's just very difficult to image why a Newspoll in the next little while would favour the Liberal National Party. In the interests of fairness if the March Newspoll was to break for some inconceivable reason towards the Liberal National Party then from a technical chart analysis point of view it would herald massive problems for Labor.

It’s just very difficult to image why a Newspoll in the next little while would favour the Liberal National Party.

]]> By: steve http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186973 steve Mon, 22 Dec 2008 14:45:33 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186973 Jamie, congratulations for at least having a go but your list has a fatal flaw and that as Gobsmacked points out is that your list doesn't take into account the Newspoll from last week. Your list appears to have been framed on the basis of the September Newspoll. At this point all I would concede as lost to Labor from your list post Dec Newspoll are Indooroopilly and Glasshouse. Indooroopilly could be won by the Liberal National Party or the Greens depending on the extent of the traditional triennial implosion of the Liberal National Party which we all anticipate with glee. The next Newspoll in March will be vital in determining how the election shapes up if it turns one more in Labor's favour then the Liberal National Party would struggle throughout the election year I suspect. Forget Murdoch Press inspired plans for an election before the March Newspoll results are known, there is no way it will happen. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/12/qldvotes.png Jamie, congratulations for at least having a go but your list has a fatal flaw and that as Gobsmacked points out is that your list doesn’t take into account the Newspoll from last week. Your list appears to have been framed on the basis of the September Newspoll.

At this point all I would concede as lost to Labor from your list post Dec Newspoll are Indooroopilly and Glasshouse. Indooroopilly could be won by the Liberal National Party or the Greens depending on the extent of the traditional triennial implosion of the Liberal National Party which we all anticipate with glee.

The next Newspoll in March will be vital in determining how the election shapes up if it turns one more in Labor’s favour then the Liberal National Party would struggle throughout the election year I suspect. Forget Murdoch Press inspired plans for an election before the March Newspoll results are known, there is no way it will happen.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/12/qldvotes.png

]]> By: Gobsmacked http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186972 Gobsmacked Mon, 22 Dec 2008 11:22:07 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186972 Jamie, I think the issue is that Labor haven't had five bad polls in a row. Just because its better than the 2006 election doesn't make it good for the LNP or bad for Labor. Until the most recent newspoll even a 51-49 result is only a 3.9% swing. If uniform, and as Mark points out that's unlikely, that means only 11 seats would change hands. thats half the required number at best. BTW the LNP aleady notionally hold Glasshouse and Buderim, so even your estimate seems to be a pickup of 10. I wouldn't discount Aspley just yet. It depends what is happening across Brisbane. You also need to be careful with seats like Chatsworth and Cleveland where high profile candidates/MPs such as Andrew Trim and Michael Caltibiano contributed to a close result last time and are not running this time. You'd expect a win in those two seats, but you never know. Just because Vince Lester once held Keppell doesn't make it LNP territory. It is a changed area and Yeppoon has more southerners. Redlands just elected a green anti development Mayor. Even Indooroopilly requires nearly 3% and the vote will be all over the place after Rhonan Lee's defection and you can guarantee, despite the anti-rat rhetoric that the Greens and Labor will do a preference deal, so even in your list there is plenty of doubt. Don't discount seats like Mudgeeraba and Gaven. I'd think it odd to get Coomera but not those. The key is SEQ - particularly Gold Coast and Brisbane. If the LNP cannot get traction they can't win and every winnable seat in SEQ they concede (fail to win) they have to pick up a double digit seat from Labor. I think 22 seats and an 8% swing to get an absolute majority is an extraordinarily difficult ask even though there is clearly dissatisfaction with the Government. Even then, I find it difficult to identify 15 seats that are likely to fall, nevermind 22. Some dopey comments by some LNPers that suggested the recent polls were as as good as a win (one senior LNP person was claiming tat galaxy poll suggested LNP was eady for Government and a recent invite asked donors to come and meet the next government). This won't help them claim the underdog status, while Bligh is sitting in a pretty good electoal position and yet seems to be being awarded underdog status without contest thanks to some poor commentary in the Australian and the Courier Mail. Only in Queensland... Jamie, I think the issue is that Labor haven’t had five bad polls in a row. Just because its better than the 2006 election doesn’t make it good for the LNP or bad for Labor. Until the most recent newspoll even a 51-49 result is only a 3.9% swing. If uniform, and as Mark points out that’s unlikely, that means only 11 seats would change hands. thats half the required number at best. BTW the LNP aleady notionally hold Glasshouse and Buderim, so even your estimate seems to be a pickup of 10.

I wouldn’t discount Aspley just yet. It depends what is happening across Brisbane. You also need to be careful with seats like Chatsworth and Cleveland where high profile candidates/MPs such as Andrew Trim and Michael Caltibiano contributed to a close result last time and are not running this time. You’d expect a win in those two seats, but you never know. Just because Vince Lester once held Keppell doesn’t make it LNP territory. It is a changed area and Yeppoon has more southerners. Redlands just elected a green anti development Mayor. Even Indooroopilly requires nearly 3% and the vote will be all over the place after Rhonan Lee’s defection and you can guarantee, despite the anti-rat rhetoric that the Greens and Labor will do a preference deal, so even in your list there is plenty of doubt. Don’t discount seats like Mudgeeraba and Gaven. I’d think it odd to get Coomera but not those. The key is SEQ – particularly Gold Coast and Brisbane. If the LNP cannot get traction they can’t win and every winnable seat in SEQ they concede (fail to win) they have to pick up a double digit seat from Labor.

I think 22 seats and an 8% swing to get an absolute majority is an extraordinarily difficult ask even though there is clearly dissatisfaction with the Government. Even then, I find it difficult to identify 15 seats that are likely to fall, nevermind 22.

Some dopey comments by some LNPers that suggested the recent polls were as as good as a win (one senior LNP person was claiming tat galaxy poll suggested LNP was eady for Government and a recent invite asked donors to come and meet the next government). This won’t help them claim the underdog status, while Bligh is sitting in a pretty good electoal position and yet seems to be being awarded underdog status without contest thanks to some poor commentary in the Australian and the Courier Mail.

Only in Queensland…

]]> By: Jamie http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186971 Jamie Mon, 22 Dec 2008 05:29:43 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186971 Its amazing. 1 bad poll and you waste no time in bagging the LNP. Labor has 5 bad polls in a row and we dont hear a word. The LNP will win seats at the next election. Whether it is enough to win government I dont think so. The seats the LNP will win are Glasshouse Whitsunday Coomera Redlands Hervey Bay Cleveland Indoorapilly Buderim Keppel Chatsworth Its amazing. 1 bad poll and you waste no time in bagging the LNP. Labor has 5 bad polls in a row and we dont hear a word. The LNP will win seats at the next election. Whether it is enough to win government I dont think so. The seats the LNP will win are

Glasshouse
Whitsunday
Coomera
Redlands
Hervey Bay
Cleveland
Indoorapilly
Buderim
Keppel
Chatsworth

]]> By: steve http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186970 steve Sat, 20 Dec 2008 05:53:21 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186970 Politically, Springborg has a major credibility problem with $64 Billion worth of promises made since the last election. $57 Billion by the National Party and $7 Billion by the Liberals with almost a year's worth of their promises yet to come. http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/tableOffice/documents/TabledPapers/2008/5208T4248.pdf Politically, Springborg has a major credibility problem with $64 Billion worth of promises made since the last election. $57 Billion by the National Party and $7 Billion by the Liberals with almost a year’s worth of their promises yet to come.

http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/tableOffice/documents/TabledPapers/2008/5208T4248.pdf

]]> By: Mark http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186969 Mark Sat, 20 Dec 2008 05:41:24 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186969 Yep, he may have a point. Additionally - there was something a bit odd about the SA numbers too, as you can see at The Poll Bludger. Yep, he may have a point. Additionally – there was something a bit odd about the SA numbers too, as you can see at The Poll Bludger.

]]> By: steve http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186968 steve Sat, 20 Dec 2008 05:30:47 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186968 Mumble seems to think there is some problem with the latest Newspoll numbers too in a week when we saw the Federal and state polling come out in the same week, but given that I would have thought the Liberal National Primary vote of 37% would be troubling for them. http://www.mumble.com.au/ Mumble seems to think there is some problem with the latest Newspoll numbers too in a week when we saw the Federal and state polling come out in the same week, but given that I would have thought the Liberal National Primary vote of 37% would be troubling for them.

http://www.mumble.com.au/

]]> By: Troy Poltzer http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186967 Troy Poltzer Sat, 20 Dec 2008 05:22:38 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186967 Antony what do you think the chance of the LNP getting these seats back that you mentioned? Surely they would be high on the LNP's hitlist? "Mount Ommaney, Greenslopes, Mansfield, Redlands, Springwood, Albert." Antony what do you think the chance of the LNP getting these seats back that you mentioned? Surely they would be high on the LNP’s hitlist?

“Mount Ommaney, Greenslopes, Mansfield, Redlands, Springwood, Albert.”

]]> By: Mark http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186966 Mark Sat, 20 Dec 2008 05:15:31 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186966 steve, yep, that's what I was thinking about - the other unknown is disaffected Liberals who didn't join the LNP potentially doing something in SEQ. At one point some of them appeared to be trying to go with the Mal Brough pseudo-plan of keeping the Libs alive as a legal entity. That obviously didn't pan out. What do they do now? Wait for the LNP to fall over? Get out of politics altogether? And another factor may be the thin membership of the LNP in parts of Brisbane due to Liberals leaving/failing to renew - insofar as this plays a part in the resources available for a campaign in the city. steve, yep, that’s what I was thinking about – the other unknown is disaffected Liberals who didn’t join the LNP potentially doing something in SEQ. At one point some of them appeared to be trying to go with the Mal Brough pseudo-plan of keeping the Libs alive as a legal entity. That obviously didn’t pan out. What do they do now? Wait for the LNP to fall over? Get out of politics altogether? And another factor may be the thin membership of the LNP in parts of Brisbane due to Liberals leaving/failing to renew – insofar as this plays a part in the resources available for a campaign in the city.

]]> By: steve http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186965 steve Sat, 20 Dec 2008 05:12:33 +0000 http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/12/19/speaking-of-queensland-politics/#comment-186965 Mark, I think the Independent conservatives will be the big unknown at the next election and can't really be taken into account yet. There are huge numbers of former councilors roaming around left over from the amalgamation process that could cause the conservatives no end of trouble. Antony, I don't read the polls presently being very encouraging for the Liberal National Party at all. Even at 51/49 before the latest newspoll their support looked soft. Post the latest Newspoll they have a lot of work to do. Mark, I think the Independent conservatives will be the big unknown at the next election and can’t really be taken into account yet. There are huge numbers of former councilors roaming around left over from the amalgamation process that could cause the conservatives no end of trouble.

Antony, I don’t read the polls presently being very encouraging for the Liberal National Party at all. Even at 51/49 before the latest newspoll their support looked soft. Post the latest Newspoll they have a lot of work to do.

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