http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Houston%20Energy%20Institute.pdf

It is possible however that if the global economic situation takes a very long time to recover (say, 5 or more years) that Peak Oil has indeed already passed – if in the next 5 to 10 years technologies that significantly lower oil demand become commonplace (PHEVs/EVs etc.) then by the time economy is back to mid-2008 levels in terms of GDP etc., total oil demand could actually be lower. However without explicit government-backed incentives this seems unlikely, because during recessionary periods consumers are far less likely to upgrade vehicles, even though there’s potentially a significant financial advantage over, say, a 10 year period. The area where perhaps there’s the most potential to reduce long-term oil demand during a recessionary period is in the implementation of better public transport, as that’s the sort of project that can be justified on economic stimulus grounds, and there’s probably more willingness among commuters to consider “cost saving measures” such as using PT (offseting that however is the fact that a) petrol is currently cheap and b) there’s slightly less traffic on the roads, so driving is a more attractive option).

The massive spike in commodity prices didn’t bring down the US economy – or, at least, I’ve not seen any commentary that identifies the commodity spike as a significant contributing factor.

Well here’s one from James Hamilton: The oil shock and recession of 2008.

FWIW I don’t believe the oil spike contributed much to the current crash. If anything it was a symptom of the credit bubble, with oil demand being driven by the global credit binge.

In my view the price spike of 2008 was due to demand bumping up against supply constraints, with a healthy dose of the aforementioned hedge-fund speculation. Now that demand has come off considerably, we’re back to a situation where the world has several million barrels per day of spare capacity, and with no likelihood of that spare capacity being threatened in the near term, prices have collapsed.

All this means is another period of underinvestment in oil exploration and production (and alternative transportation technologies) so oil will spike again when the global economy recovers, and peak oilers will have another day in the sun.

Keep in mind that if oil consumption drops and then steadily reduces, then peak oil could extend some time into the future, even if it had already passed. And there are a number of ways that that can happen, only some of which are good for the environment. So point taken, but even the most studied assessment can be at best a guess, at this stage.

In today’s world it seems that massive amounts of money can be vanished without trace as if it never existed and all that one has to do is give it a name….Global Finacial Crisis….Giant Ponzi Scheme…. and suddenly we understand, we have an explanation, so move on. If that is what we want to believe. And I think that a total lack of political backbone is going to make that the reality.

Personally I think that an important opportunity to reshape our transport infrastructure in a timely manner has been lost with collapsed oil prices. Certainly the lower petrol price is a relief, particularly for those facing mortgage stress, but an accelerated move to electric vehicles and alternative fuels would in the medium term provide a far greater advantage than a hiatus in high petrol prices is going to give. This is a situation where a flexible carbon tax could have been used to drive industry developments in directions where they need to go but cannot in a pure market environment.

“Peak Oil” will return again. It is a bit like predicting a share market crash. Every body knows that it is going to happen, just not now. Ooops too late!

Recent events are consistent with that line, though I’m not really qualified to say if the rest of their arguments hold.