Maybe it’s still the silly season in Australian politics. Or maybe any development involving both John Howard and the Queensland Nationals is by definition surreal. Barnaby Joyce has apparently been chatting to John Howard, and has indicated a willingness to stand for a lower house seat in order to take over the Nats’ federal leadership. It’s tempting to suggest that Howard’s just playing spoiler in the Coalition pack, but the key is probably the notion that Joyce could win back “Howard’s battlers”. Either way, it’s about Howard’s legacy, or in other words, his ego – and Joyce’s.
The rambling and disconnected musings from Joyce in the report in The Australian demonstrate how unfocused a champion he would be. It’s tempting to enumerate the contradictions in Joyce’ blah, but perhaps commenters should have some fun too. It may be, of course, that a Joyce run for the Reps would be attractive to Malcolm Turnbull if it were believed that it would take his focus off the Senate. That, of course, would be wishful thinking.
The only way Howard’s idea might make sense is if you believe that Joyce’s social conservatism is attractive. Kevin Rudd, however, has that in spades himself, and if the 2007 election proved anything, it showed that the “values” debate and the culture wars had lost their electoral lustre, if indeed they ever had any.
Update [dk.au]: Possum on Barnaby’s Electoral Dartboard
It is more likely that it is Barnably Joyce’s belief in standing up for his constituents which is attractive.
Absolutely, Steve. Our Branaby, a pork barreller from wayback, stands-up for his constiuents alright.
He’s a real country member.
As Gough said: “We remember.”
So far there has been speculation of Joyce standing for Maranoa, Flynn, New England and now Dawson. It’s beginning to look like a payback to Springborg by the anti merger forces in Canberra.Howard scuttled Springborg’s initial attempt at the merger. Now the merger has sent their state polling back to the level of the last election, his dream of being elected as Premier is about zero and the stichup is on to keep him out of Maranoa after the loss.
“BARNABY Joyce is eyeing the Mackay-based federal seat of Dawson as the Nationals star comes under intense pressure to enter the Lower House.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24899280-3102,00.html
“Senator Joyce’s upper house colleague, Ron Boswell, yesterday suggested the move might involve a challenge to popular independent MP Tony Windsor in the northern NSW electorate of New England, where Senator Joyce is understood to have farming interests.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24899315-2702,00.html
The Piping Shrike and Mumble are also expressing surprise at the latest developments.
http://www.pipingshrike.com/2009/01/the-slow-toppling-of-turnbull.html
As a resident and voter in New England, going on both state election figures (when Windsor was in the NSW Parliament for yonks)and on Federal election figures since he’s been Federal member, Barnaby Joyce doesn’t even stand a chance. In fact, if my memory serves me right, the ALP doesn’t even bother to stand a candidate against Windsor.
This Joyce deal has the smell of John Howard all over it. And, so far as New England is concerned, I’m 100% certain Howard is out of touch with reality, suffering relevance deprivation along with those long-standing delusions of grandeur. Yet another indication Howard has gone completely bonkers. But that’s what happens to moral sociopaths – ie leaders so immersed in the exercise of power they can’t differentiate between right and wrong.
Just pointing out, Barnaby in the Reps, as opposed to the Senate, is a hell of a lot easier to deal with both in government and in the (likely) next opposition.
His vote is essentially meaningless in the Reps, but its significant in the senate.
Basically, if he’s dumb enough to stand in the reps then he confirms everything anyone ever said about him.
I think Howard is doing Turnbull a HUGE favour to get BJ into the Reps. That would remove a major potential headache.
I don’t think it’s about his vote but about his rhetoric – and he’d certainly use his vote in the Senate to the lead up to the election to demonstrate “differentiation” with the Libs – but ChrisS, do you really think he’d be a good little Coalitionist as Nats leader if he made it to the Reps?
btw, the reason Windsor did (and does) so well here is that he represents local people regardless of their political inclinations. He regularly surveys voters to get their opinions on contentious matters eg the privatisation of Telstra before he decidesa to take a stand on the issue in Parliament. With the retirement of Ian Sinclair, who was an excellent local member despite his party allegiances (and regardless of the fact that one might abuse him roundly at election rallies, as I used to do frequently). There was never a problem I brought to him he didn’t solve for me. Windsor is the same.
This is in sharp contrast to the parlous representation one got from Sinclair’s Nat successors, who would simply ignore you if you weren’t a Nat supporter.
No wonder Windsor keeps winning in a landslide the highest primary vote in Federal Parliament I think.
I might venture to suggest the majority of people in New England have had more than enough of National Party hacks, and they don’t want them again, wherever they, as individuals, might stand on the political spectrum.
Barnarby and his eminence grise must be off in la-la land.
Dawson might be the seat of choice rather than New England – since it’s a classic “battlers” seat now held by Labor.
No, I don’t think so, but in the Reps he can’t make a significant difference, barring some amazing hung parliament.
Barnaby in the Reps would be a good thing for the coalition, as its not at all clear that all the nats follow him blindly. As his vote becomes meaningless, so does his rhetoric. The only reason people listen to him is his power to act as a spoiler.
The nats are pretty much dead anyway I reckon, the future in rural seats looks to be towards independents like Windsor, and in Lyne. They may even coalesce into a loose party, based solely around rural issues. Which would be an interesting dynamic.
Mark,
That’s a relief. Sort of. Let’s hope Barnaby can’t win there. I’d rather have in the Senate where he can be an unpredictable pest to Malcolm Turnbull. Not that Mr. Joyce would be likely to listen to the likes of me.
Mark, I’m not sure you can accurately refer to Dawson as a ‘battlers’ seat. Although it may all be about to change, Dawson has been the major beneficiary of the coal boom. The ALP winning Dawson was probably a result of an unpopular sitting member and a very long and well resourced campaign by the ACTU. The new sitting member seems determined to be oncer which may be the basis of Dawson appealing to Barnaby but I would imagine that Flynn would probably be a better bet for him.
Just to advance another possibility for Howard’s seeming endorsement of Barnaby Joyce.
Howard has a long memory and obviously remembers that another National populist from Queensland, one Bjelke-Petersen, derailed his chances of victory in the 1980s.
What a sweet revenge it would be to persuade another Queensland National populist to give up a position of power in the Senate to try for a Reps seat.
Whatever seat it is, Barnaby is no shoo-in. This, after all, is a politician who panders to the extreme Right wingers. For example, his insult of pensioners that they would spend their extra money on Chinese plasma TV sets will not win him many votes from that section of the electorate.
With Barnaby being the potential Nationals Leader, there could be an even greater swing away from them – and that wouldn’t disappoint Howard!
Remember, also, that Howard would not have a high opinion of Barnaby, whow as a constant source of irritation to him when he was in power.
Oops, sorry. That last sentence should read “who was a constant source of irritation…”
mikesimpson, but I think the salient factor was that it was “battlers” who swung in Dawson – those not making merry from the mining boom but impacted by or worried about WorkChoices.
Agreed. The other big change that has happened in Dawson over the course of the mining boom is the growing number of miners who live, and presumably vote, in Dawson, but work in the Bowen basin (capricornia). The vote in the bowen basin mining communities never dips much below 70% ALP, and also the workchoices campaign in Dawson was very much a CFMEU campaign.
Yep, I forget the name of the state seat up there (Fitzroy?) where back in the day the CPA often used to beat the Nats into third place.
Dawson is hardly core Barnaby country. Particularly since in some ways Deanne Kelly was his ideological soulmate from the NCC/DLPish wing of the Nats.
It’s a constant amazement to me that Barnbaby Joyce has any standing at all in national politics. “Rambling and disconnected” is an excellent description of him in general and not just in the Australian article. I watch his painfully slow thought processes on his media appearances and want to shake him, particularly when they result often in inane, simplistic and sometimes surprisingly bigoted comments. Is the explanation that his appeal to his electorate is like to like? I recall he first appeared in the Senate as hopeful talent of independent thought who said he would put his electorate before other interests. He seemed to teeter on the edge of really independent stances, but ultimately caved in. And yes, I do think John Howard is not wanting to do him a favour by suggesting he move to the House of Reps. I may not respect Howard on moral issues but he has the cunning of a sewer rat for political machination. I am sure BJ would have no inkling of what might motivate Howard’s advice. Is my nickname of “Bumbling Barnaby” unfair?
It’s a fantasy that Barnaby will want to battle for a seat. He won’t want to take on the ALP in a marginal, he won’t want to take on an entrenched independent like Windsor or Katter, because he’d have to battle at every election. He’ll want a seat that causes him no trouble – and the only Nat seat that fits that bill is Maranoa. Another possibility is Groom if Ian Macdonald retires, but to make that call you’d have to know more than I do about Who’s Who In Toowoomba.
Why would Barnaby want to become a Coalitionist? What he wants is to be the powerbroker. Over the next 12 months, two things will have to happen for Barnaby to go for the Reps. If both of these are present he’ll be into Maranoa and barnstorming rural Australia to achieve what Pauline Hanson had hoped: build a rural/regional rump that plays the majors off against each other.
First, Labor have to do a workmanlike job. Not a great job, with shiny new pronouncements every week, but mere hanging-on-for-grim-death competence. Imagine the tone of this government is set by the strained (dare I use the word ‘embattled’?) Wayne Swan or Peter Garrett, rather than the easy confidence of Gillard or Tanner.
Second, imagine that the Libs score a few hits on the government – Turnbull and Hockey make some impressive appearances, maybe take a ministerial scalp or two – and create the impression that while the GFC isn’t Labor’s fault, they haven’t done enough to mitigate it.
If both these factors are present by about August/September, Barnaby will step in as the ‘honest broker’ (insert your favorite comment about being broke and dishonest here), with a constituency of ‘forgotten people’ in rural/regional Australia. He won’t play the race card as Hanson did, and as a St George man he’ll have to do some fancy footwork on Murray-Darling water issues. Seats like Robertson come into contention with the right candidate, and the gunloser/CRC constituency should be good for 2-3 seats to the north of the Sunshine Coast.
His ideal position is a House of Reps after 2010 where each of the majors get 70 seats, and there’s him, Windsor, Katter, Oakeshott and a few other RARA whingers who hold the balance of power. No responsibility – but hoo boy, feel the power.
This situation depends on Labor declining slightly and the Libs improving, but not to the point where the next election is in the bag for them (and hence they don’t need Barnaby, and will be content with tame Nats like Truss). If either of those factors are absent the switch to the House is too much like hard work for Barnaby, he’ll stay where he is.
LNP notwithstanding, the Libs would not want to hand Groom over to the Nationals. Though that does raise the question – at grass roots level – of who controls preselection since there is no organised Liberal Party in Queensland. If, as I expect, the LNP lose the state election, you have to remember there’ll be enormous confusion and disarray in the Tory ranks in Qld and that will play a role in the next federal election. If the LNP win the state election, which is just possible, there’ll be enormous confusion and disarray when it comes to the federal election over preselections in vacant and Labor held seats.
Elsewhere: Possum on Barnaby’s Electoral Dartboard