Another possibility is Groom if Ian Macdonald retires, but to make that call you’d have to know more than I do about Who’s Who In Toowoomba.

LNP notwithstanding, the Libs would not want to hand Groom over to the Nationals. Though that does raise the question – at grass roots level – of who controls preselection since there is no organised Liberal Party in Queensland. If, as I expect, the LNP lose the state election, you have to remember there’ll be enormous confusion and disarray in the Tory ranks in Qld and that will play a role in the next federal election. If the LNP win the state election, which is just possible, there’ll be enormous confusion and disarray when it comes to the federal election over preselections in vacant and Labor held seats.

Why would Barnaby want to become a Coalitionist? What he wants is to be the powerbroker. Over the next 12 months, two things will have to happen for Barnaby to go for the Reps. If both of these are present he’ll be into Maranoa and barnstorming rural Australia to achieve what Pauline Hanson had hoped: build a rural/regional rump that plays the majors off against each other.

First, Labor have to do a workmanlike job. Not a great job, with shiny new pronouncements every week, but mere hanging-on-for-grim-death competence. Imagine the tone of this government is set by the strained (dare I use the word ‘embattled’?) Wayne Swan or Peter Garrett, rather than the easy confidence of Gillard or Tanner.

Second, imagine that the Libs score a few hits on the government – Turnbull and Hockey make some impressive appearances, maybe take a ministerial scalp or two – and create the impression that while the GFC isn’t Labor’s fault, they haven’t done enough to mitigate it.

If both these factors are present by about August/September, Barnaby will step in as the ‘honest broker’ (insert your favorite comment about being broke and dishonest here), with a constituency of ‘forgotten people’ in rural/regional Australia. He won’t play the race card as Hanson did, and as a St George man he’ll have to do some fancy footwork on Murray-Darling water issues. Seats like Robertson come into contention with the right candidate, and the gunloser/CRC constituency should be good for 2-3 seats to the north of the Sunshine Coast.

His ideal position is a House of Reps after 2010 where each of the majors get 70 seats, and there’s him, Windsor, Katter, Oakeshott and a few other RARA whingers who hold the balance of power. No responsibility – but hoo boy, feel the power.

This situation depends on Labor declining slightly and the Libs improving, but not to the point where the next election is in the bag for them (and hence they don’t need Barnaby, and will be content with tame Nats like Truss). If either of those factors are absent the switch to the House is too much like hard work for Barnaby, he’ll stay where he is.

Dawson is hardly core Barnaby country. Particularly since in some ways Deanne Kelly was his ideological soulmate from the NCC/DLPish wing of the Nats.