Update: Discussion can be continued here:

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/19/eyeless-in-gaza-vii/

Their official rhetoric is that since 2006 Hezbollah hasn’t fired any rockets into Israel. Therefore the fearful pounding the IDF meted out to Lebanese population centres was a successful deterrent.

Fast forward to 2009. Israel meted out a fearful pounding on Gaza. Now the IDF prepares to withdraw. Does Israel believe that, like Hezbollah, Hamas will remain quiet?

If that is the thinking, then Israel may have made the mistake of assuming that Hezbollah and Hamas have similar ambitions. This is not the case. Hezbollah was happy enough to return to the centre of political life in Lebanon. They are not fixated on Israel

Hamas, on the other hand, owes its existence to the struggle against Israel. They must continue to resist Israel, or cease to exist.

Israel may eventually be forced to attempt to garrison Gaza, with all its attendant dangers.

It certainly changed their path. After their ethnic cleansing of southern Lebanon (no Christians there now, it was never reported in the MSM and the ‘peace’ movement never protested it)

An illogical asertion: if the MSM never reported it how could the ‘peace movement’ knew about it to protest? Secondly, independent proof of this alleged ethic cleansing?

they changed from building a hizb’allah ‘enclave’ in Lebanon to muscling in on its government. That’s forcing the Syrians to work with the Israelis to counter them.

Yeah, right. The Syrians worked so hard for Israel that Hezbollah has never before been better re-supplied through the Syrian land borders, and is consequently armed as never before.

Rob re:

I’d add that the IDF has won this encounter. It’s lost only around 10 dead, some from friendly fire, while hundreds of Hamas operatives have been killed. In the calculus of the Middle East, still largely a medieval warrior culture, that counts for a lot.

If your criteria is body count, then the USA must have won the Vietnam war. You really think those “operatives” won’t be replaced, and soon? Roughly 3:1 military personnel killed in favour of Israel in the 2006 war and Hezbollah lost? It’s the political victory, not the body count that matters. Like the Brit Royal Air Force [outnumbered roughly 3:1] in WW2, simply surviving was the 1941 victory for the clearly weaker force.

The IDF has fought and won in one of the most dangerous urban warfare environments in the world, an environment of a kind traditionally regarded as a death trap to an invading force. I imagine military strategists the world over will be studying their tactics very closely.

Hyperbolic drivel. Ten Israelis killed and three of those by friendly fire. Compare with General Paulus’ army at Stalingrad–900,000 men; 60,000 or so into captivity at the end of it.

The point is that they hid under a hospital, myriad, knowing the IDF couldn’t strike them. That’s cowardice, as well as a war crime.

Paraphrasing Captain Jack Sparrow: Terrorists! Duh!

Of course they will, I would have thought killing women and children was quite easy really, I mean, what military tactics are required here? I guess to open the bomb bay doors, or to operate the missile delivery system of a U.S. supplied F16 fighter or bomber takes some tactical training.Not to mention the driving of tanks, and the firing of modern artillery pieces.

So Hamas with their AK 47’s and other small arms didn’t put up a very good fight against Abraham’s tanks, modern artillery, and assorted aircraft and helicopters?

In a word “Bollicks”

“Which leaves the obvious conclusion that the only less the IDF has to offer is that if you’re willing to kill children, women and civilian men at an extraordinarily high rate and in breach of international law, you too can ‘win’.”

So… No comment on Hamas’ culpability in regard to putting women and children in the line of fire as a military tactic? Thought not.

Which leaves the obvious conclusion that the only less the IDF has to offer is that if you’re willing to kill children, women and civilian men at an extraordinarily high rate and in breach of international law, you too can ‘win’.

As to your last statement Rob, what did you expect, that Hamas leaders should all helpfully line up for the IDF? It’s a stupid point when we know full well that every country has bunkers in which to hide its leadership in case of military strike or invasion, including Israel.

I’d add that the IDF has won this encounter. It’s lost only around 10 dead, some from friendly fire, while hundreds of Hamas operatives have been killed. In the calculus of the Middle East, still largely a medieval warrior culture, that counts for a lot.

The IDF has fought and won in one of the most dangerous urban warfare environments in the world, an environment of a kind traditionally regarded as a death trap to an invading force. I imagine military strategists the world over will be studying their tactics very closely.

And no-one in the Middle East will have missed the fact that Hamas, despite their vainglory, hardly resisted, fought badly if at all, and hid wherever it could behind women and children. Throughout the conflict, the Hamas senior leadership sat out the war in underground bunkers beneath the Shifa hospital, which Israel could not strike. That won’t have gone unnoticed, either.

regards.

287 ron1
Clueless. No idea of the real world.

293 ron1
quoting Michael #292

“Most interestingly, Abbas’s public pronouncements are essentialy the same as Meshals; immediate withdrawal of Israeli troops and a complete end to the blockade.”

… unified Fatah and Hamas in focussing on overall objectives…

There is no evidence of this. The comment is a fantasy

..Gaza has reunited them , whilst they’ll still fight internaly ,

So they are united while fighting internally, which involves killing each other. How is this inherent contradiction somehow possible in your mind? Clueless. Quite clueless.

Here’s a clue.

Israel has achieved many, but not all, of its military objectives

The IDF has killed a number of high-value targets, including Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam, Hamas commanders Abu Zakaria al-Jamal and Nizar Rayan, and a number of alleged Iranian agents
Hizb’allah claims that Iran is trying to get several of their rocket experts in Gaza out of the place. Tehran does not want to escalate matters with Israel by having their Iranian agents taken prisoner.
A lot of the infrastructure that allowed Hamas to operate in the Gaza Strip has been destroyed.

Hamas can still launch artillery rockets into Israel, but its supply is now limited. The number of attacks is slowly declining. Israel intends to stop resupply by setting up security mechanisms with Egypt, the US and EU to better secure the Rafah border crossing. Details are still being worked out, but Israel and the United States have signed a binding agreement (approved by Obama and Clinton) involving technological and combat engineering aid and assistance.

Hamas has been cornered. It now has some obstacles in getting back on its feet:

- a major internal factional struggle has begun
- the severe rifts between the Damascus-based and Gaza-based Hamas leaderships have resurfaced.
- While the Gaza leadership was getting hammered, Khaled Meshaal, coordinating with Iran, dragged out the conflict by refusing to agree to a truce, building enmity with cadres and rival leaders.
- With new security measures in place, it will be hard for Hamas to restore its tunneling network and resupply its rocket arsenal enough to seriously threaten Israel again.
- The majority of Arab regimes are happy to see Hamas crippled, that’s why so many of them worked to help Israel.

Do you ever see anything but the surface events, Ron?

MarkL
canberra

I think this misunderstands what Hamas is about. It sees itself sd thas the premier group fighting for Palestinian liberation…

Hamas does not really say this, that’s an interpretation of the infighting among the 5 major pallie factions. Hamas strongly oppose a ‘two-state- solution’ as that would mean recognising Israel. Hamas does not recognise Israel at all and wants it obliterated.

By the same token, Hizbalah was surprised … it seems to hve workeds out quite all right for them.

It certainly changed their path. After their ethnic cleansing of southern Lebanon (no Christians there now, it was never reported in the MSM and the ‘peace’ movement never protested it) they changed from building a hizb’allah ‘enclave’ in Lebanon to muscling in on its government. That’s forcing the Syrians to work with the Israelis to counter them.

291 Katz

But there is no unanimity at the operational level within the Hamas leadership.

Agreed. The ‘leaders’ in Damascus do not agree with the ones in Gaza.

295 Katz

It is clear that Mashal is more attuned to Iranian ambitions than the Gazan section of Hamas.
At first, Mashal (residing in Lebanon) wanted Hamas in Gaza to fight to the death. In other words, he wanted martyrs.
When Mashal perceived that his Gazan confreres were unwilling to play that role, he then conceded.

Agreed. Which tells us a bit about the capabilities and limitations of Iranian influence within Hamas. Are there three major internal factions, an Iranian one in Lebanon, a Syrian one in Damascus, and a local one in Gaza?

There are some questions that are worth asking:
1. Did Iran encourage Hamas in Gaza to provoke Israel?

If the unconfirmed (one source only thus far) reports of Iranian rocket techs in Gaza and the existence (again as yet unconfirmed) of Fajr-3 rockets landing in Israel after the unilateral Israeli ceasefire are true, then I believe we have something like a positive answer to this. It is difficult to believe that Iran would send Iranian techs in without them supporting the idea of the hamas attacks. After all, they cannot attack Israel without the 45km range rockets Iran supplies.

2. If so, did Israel react in the way Iran expected them to react?

If Mashal’s view of what hamas-in-Gaza should have done is true, then this is a hint that the Israelis did not react the way Tehran thought. But only a hint.

3. How did Mashal arrive at the decision that Hamas should refuse to agree to a ceasefire?
4. How did Mashel subsequently arrive at the decision that Hamas should seek a ceasefire?

I have found no data yet – there are the money questions. Answers would tell us all much.

MarkL
Canberra

#296

“OK as a side note did anyone see the Nazi’s at the protests on the weekend? ”

Pro israeli’s ar foolishly still using trading on th 1945 nazi guilt ploy for sympathy , thats TSSK well past its use by date , from 4 generations ago ….although your Hollywood mates keep th myth going , in fact world sympathy now is with th Palestiniens….about time, seeing they ar th occupied peoples , and yes Left share your sentiments….Serbs faced Hague for atrocities so why not th Israelis as there guilt is not not questioned in world , and probably why pro israeli suporters hav gone very quiet , there false ’spin’ does work on his Site

Well, congratulations, and let me just add on a personal note that I’d like to see you criminals in the dock at the Hague.

Won’t hold my breath though.

Jes’, if only Timmeh could have let that small number of folks, who attended, know in advance, they could have saved themselves the train fare into town.

Way to go idiots! Any protest against the deaths in Gaza on the Palestinian side is now completely negated. Where the hell were the protest organisers? Or did they condone this sort of sign? (They didn’t catch any photos but I did see glimpses on the news of some pretty nasty Israeli flags with the Star of David replaced with the swastica.)