From today’s Crikey email:
Queensland’s the only state to hold an election this year, and excitement is obviously building. Well, that’s one way of looking at it — if you’re either a News Limited journo looking for a lazy piece to write about “early poll speculation” or if you’re a member of the LNP. The supposedly reinvigorated (“new”, “fresh” and all that) amalgamated opposition seem to be constantly poised at the blocks waiting for the starting gun to be fired. The latest symptom of this silly season syndrome is a very excitable story in the Courier-Mail today.
The paper’s breathless reporters write:
The prospect of an early state election has arisen again after Labor began letterbox dropping households in battleground seats at the weekend.
It doesn’t appear to have occurred to the LNP apparatchiks that just as their members have been spending Saturday mornings for a month or more sweating in the summer sun on stalls on shopping strips (only to be ignored by electors focused more on, well, shopping) that Labor might also be doing a bit of profile raising for its new candidates.
In fact, the ALP might be doing its bit of early campaigning in a somewhat more strategic fashion than their opponents. It’s hard to see the logic of the Lib Nats actively campaigning in Brisbane Central before Christmas — held by a margin of 14.4% on the 2006 figures. And it’s hard to see why Michael Palmer would be booking billboards along Sandgate Road in Nudgee — where Labor is defending a margin of 18.2%. But, then, Palmer can probably afford a bit of youthful enthusiasm, since his dad, Clive, has been largely funding Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg’s makeover.
While Anna Bligh will no doubt want to retain some flexibility over the timing of the election, just because the LNP and News Limited say there’ll be an election next month won’t make it so. Bligh’s only recently flicked the switch to negative on the opposition, and there’s a lot of scope left for tarnishing The Borg’s image and exploiting divisions between the Libs and the Nats, or rather between the LNP and Liberal voters. Not to mention a fair bit of unfinished business in “renewing” the ALP, which Bligh hinted at in an interview with the Fin Review yesterday.
LNP strategists might like to spend a little more time developing an actual political strategy and a bit less time assuming that one leaflet drop means we’ll soon be off to vote.
Senior Queensland public servants have for months been telling anyone who cares to listen (OTR of course) that there will be an election early this year.
That doesn’t make it certain, but there’s more to this story than the imaginations of News Ltd hacks.
Well, I’ll be barracking for an early election, if only to get on with this charade of an election so I can forget it early as well.
Mark, your right, that’s exactly what’s going on, no argument. The LNP are the Nationals, Liberal voters will vote against them in droves, the LNP hasn’t got a policy base worth talikng about, they don’t consult with anyone who doesn’t pay them, they trump up prospects of early elections, they airdrop candidates into seats thanks to cash-filled handshakes from conservative business interests and then back there ill-conceived campaigns regardless of the likelihood of success and most importantly the Courier Mail are simply lazy, picking up on the most obvious storyline and reiterating it like it was news.
I really don’t want the LNP to win, it’s not a good party, I don’t want Lawrence Springborg to be premier, and this article still makes me angry. I know you have to report it as it is (and to a certain degree how you interpret it), it’s what Crikey has asked you to do, but please, spend a little time on the positives. Find some good stories out there, there’s bound to be a few, find me the members who actually will make a difference, talk about the real up and comers of this campaign; Labor, LNP, Greens, Independents, members, candidates, 3rd party campaigners, behind the scenes people anyone at least trying to help and doing some good. Give me some signs of life in the desert of an electoral system that might actually show us that state politics in Queensland is more then just our Premier swanning around in a hard hat while big interests sell and exploit our resources. Please?
PinkyOz.
I don’t think there’s any doubt – Bligh will win easily. The interesting aspect of this will be following the fortunes of the Fusion party – and piecing together where they won and lost votes from the merger experiment.
An early election? Seems highly likely. Many, many Ministers on deck during this ’silly season’. Flood relief handouts (already) for cyclone victims in North Queensland. Bad Budget on the way. Busy, busy, busy.
But while there has been some negative shots already fired, there is much ammo still in storage.
Highly unlikely that the Borg can win given the seats required and then the ‘divorce’. Going to be messy!
Y’know what’ll happen? If Anna Bligh calls an early election, the Courier Mail will immediately turn around and attack them for ‘dragging voters to the polls too early’. Same thing happened in WA and look what happened. (I know WA and Qld are very different, but that’s the best lesson going to never write off the hopeless opposition.) I’m not sure how the CM stacks up against the West Australian, but I dare say they’ll try to pull the same trick.
“Senior Queensland public servants have for months been telling anyone who cares to listen (OTR of course) that there will be an election early this year.”
I’ve been asking if people had seen any signs of pre-election activity in Premier’s, Treasury etc. The universal answer has been “No. None at all.”
d
If, as Pinky sez, “The LNP are the Nationals, Liberal voters will vote against them in droves” … who will these Liberal voters vote for? Surely Real Liberal Voter dna won’t allow ticking the labor box…. lots of spoiled voting slips coming up? Or a Greens bonanza?
“Surely Real Liberal Voter dna won’t allow ticking the labor box…. ”
Do you remember the 2001 Qld election?
d
danny, well I was being a bit hyperbolic, but probably there will be a breed that won’t vote for the LNP.
Mark mentioned outer Brisbane Suburbs as a possible question mark, the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast might also have that problem. It might be worth watching Brisbane Central, if the backlash is big the Greens may edge into second, but the ALPs ‘Just Vote 1′ strategy hurts the Greens as much as the Libs. But it will depend on exactly how many people will show a strong Liberal voting record, a anti-Nationals stance and perceive that the LNP is a re-badged Nationals outfit, really hard to estimate, deep stats like that might be a job for possum if he’s feeling a bit bored.
Informal voting? Hmmm, well I’m hoping for an increase, but overall, I don’t think it will jump by a lot.
PinkyOz
does anybody with connections to QLD Labor know the prospects for cannabis decriminalisation in this State?
Zero before the election, I’d say, yeti.
I might well be able to do that when there is actually a campaign to write about, PinkyOz. The thing with Crikey is that they won’t want full on coverage til then, because state politics is probably only of marginal interest to their readers outside Queensland. Which is fair enough.
Of course, stories, tips – happy for people to point me to them!
Yeti: Prospects for Cannabis decriminalisation? Zero.
Mark,
Fair point, you’ll have to excuse this ranting fool, I have a feeling this ‘Extended Campaign’ will be even worse then the one we had in 2007, at least then something happened, an arguably bad government was replaced with arguably good government.
The fact that so many (including myself) are ready to call this one without a vote hitting the bottom of ballot box, without a date being set, and with very little scrutiny of the government but plenty of the obviously dysfunctional LNP sends increasingly worrying signals to my brain. So I hope you take up the challenge, and find those bright sparks in this election, I’d like to know that at least something good will come of this.
PinkyOz
Stuff the election, anyone game enough to call the result in Indooroopilly, months in advance? That could go any of so many different ways… the only distance I’m gonna stick my neck out is that Labor won’t win. Could end up as Green (ex-ALP) vs ALP vs LNP vs independent (ex-Liberal), if the LNP thing goes sour. Whatever it is, it’ll be fascinating, and it’ll make watching the election worth it all by itself. Where’s my popcorn?
[Stuff the election, anyone game enough to call the result in Indooroopilly, months in advance?]
Yeah – me. LNP by a mile.
I wouldn’t say by a mile, but I think the LNP has to be favoured to win Indooro, unless they really fall to bits in the campaign (which has been a feature of most of their efforts since 1998).
WHAT?? LNP in Indooroopilly? Has the world gone mad?
No, just Ronan Lee
I agree with Poll Bludger re- Indooroopilly. And going on this Government’s track record on teh environment, I am backing Chatsworth and many otehr city seats as gone for the ALP (unless we see a dramatic turnaround from this Premier).
A story you say?- a collection of unionists (not the ALP) are preparing to run against the QLD Labor Party. How many seats? Let the guessing games begin.
Interesting, Not Lee Atwater.
Email me or Crikey with details if you like. You can do so anonymously.
Wouldn’t have anything to do with the ETU by any chance?
yeti @ 17 – with Indooroopilly, it’s always going to be one of the first dominoes to fall given the margin if there’s any sort of reasonable swing to the LNP, and the non-LNP vote will be split between Labor and the Greens. Presumably Lee will poll better as an incumbent, and there’s not likely to be a lot of goodwill in preferences.
Hmmm … I don’t know, probably an LNP gain, but Mark said it, the LNP have a bad habit of falling apart during election campaigns following ‘inconvenient’ questions from the ALP
Antony Green placed Indooroopilly as the 7th Most marginal ALP seat with a revised estimate of 2.7%, its traditionally conservative and it should float back if there is even a modest swing. The X factor is how the LNP embraces it’s inner city cousins, the ALP probably have a question mark against this one in their playbook, It will depend on what announcements Lawrence makes from here to the Election, he hasn’t made that mistake yet, mainly because he hasn’t announced anything really.
So yeah, Likely, but I don’t hold the bludger’s optimism/pessimism depending on how you look at it.
PinkyOz.
The other factor is that Indooroopilly is in the Western Suburbs heartland of the Liberal faction most opposed to the amalgamation.
But if the LNP tops the poll, and the ALP and Greens vote is split somewhere around 25/15 or 30/12 or something, it’s hard to see them losing as I strongly suspect there’ll be a lot of “just vote one-ing”. I doubt the ALP have it on a serious retain list – because Lee’s own estimation of his chances of winning re-election as a Labor member must have factored into his decision to switch parties.
Speaking of the Liberal factions, has anyone heard where Michael Caltabiano going to turn up? The only really good thing about being embedded in a safe Labor seat like mine is annoying little wise guys like him don’t run here.
PinkyOz
Mark- it is a patchwork. ETU through to CFMEU. I’ll put more detail in an email.
Cheers, I’d be very interested.
Union dissatisfaction (to put it MILDLY) with the current premier is deeply entrenched.
I am union/ALP HQ in my district, all I have heard for most of last year is:
“Springborg doesn’t seem so bad, if we put him in it’ll teach labor a lesson” or “Bligh doesn’t deserve to win the next election”
But this is not news, I have posted these comments before on this site, along with a rundown on the deep dissatisfaction with Anna Bligh among core ALP membership.
For a long time this has driven my belief that (what is now LNP) will win the next Qld election.
However, there is an element of Qld’s former liberal party doing the same stuff in the LNP. That is, acting like dickheads, and generally behaving as if they are deliberatly throwing the election.
Perhaps the Qld liberal party aren’t the dickheads I have spent my life thinking they are;-
Perhaps it is as simple as they are just more comfortable in opposition. (After all, there is little work to be done and no hard questions to answer).
Personal note: After years of being the best option for my industry, the post-Beattie ALP is alienating the pub trade. I don’t know how many votes I can change (if any) if I start subtley seeding LNP votes among my punters, but I would be surprised if careful work by publicans can’t go part of the way toward tipping the balance somewhere.
This is quite distressing, as the National & Liberal parties did almost everything they could to alienate the pub trade, now we have nowhere to go since the idiot children of the ALP (Anna Bligh & Andrew Fraser) got elevated above their competence level.
Honest question SATP,
What’s the State gov currently doing to alienate your trade? Especially actions that have been undertaken relatively recently?
There are essentially two scenrios re: Qld state election:
1. The LNP loses – Barnaby Joyce will hence be put back into his jack in the box and the LNP will disintegrate paving the way for some in fighting in the media and the re-emergence of the anti-merger forces in a tentatively reformed coalition.
2. The LNP wins – This will put the National Party dominated LNP in a position where they can cry Victory from the roof-tops and go about trumpeting the Federal LNP merger which was flatly rejected by the Liberal Party’s Federal Executive previously and will be defended with a flat rejection once more.
The key to the success of the conservative forces in Queensland in my opinion will be its ability to take the impending defeat with atleast some grace and go about re-branding the Liberal Party / National Party coalition and try to resolve this farcial situation of National Party dominated pre-selections and allow for real Liberal Alternatives to fight for the cause of Liberalism in Qld rather than the current joke-like situation that exists.
The problem with the LNP as it currently exists is the fact that the structure dominated by the National Party is deluding itself into believing that saying We are strong and competitive will actually make people believe it.
There is no substantive evidence that the Borg is anywhere near being a potential leader of substance as compared to the vanquished Mal Brough.
I believe firmly that when the LNP take it up the tail-pipe at the next Qld Election, the key to future success will be ensuring that more members of the former Liberal Party win seats than former Nationals.
This is crucial because when the merger disintegrates (and it will) the Liberal (qld) branch will re-emerge with numbers that are workable rather than the joke situation that currently exists.
Despite the impending loss, the next electoral cycle will be key to ensuring the return of the Liberal Party to power in Qld.
I heard some supporters of Barnaby Joyce saying he might be Prime Minister one day if he moves to the lower house and the LNP Federal Merger succeeds! That statement proves how spectacularily out of touch they really are and is why a loss in Qld will be useful to longer term restructuring.
I’ll bite… As if there really is a southsideliberal, the fanciful moniker is a dead giveaway it’s satire. Hell, even the south brisbane
liberalnationalLNP candidate is a union apparatchick …And isn’t that the sort of can’t-do, even in most propitious of election settings, attitude that we’ve come to expect and loathe in Queensland’s tories? Focus on the prize instead of internal bickering? Show they’ve got a sense of gravitas and responsibility? Get trusted with the treasury benches? Never!!
The last time was an accident, Borbidge didn’t win, there was no tory mandate. (Unless you count 22.7% first preferences fo One nation as indicating one. They captured 42% of the Nat vote, and 30% of the Libs, what’s that say about the tory constituency?) In a way, this is really a seven term government already. I reckon it’ll go at least 10 before the Greens get it together, just in time to be able to point to the eco-destruction and say “We told you so”. Gough was right – Queensland isn’t a state, it’s a condition. Democratic processes may not be all that appropriate here. Hell, we got rid of the pesky upper house aeons ago, it’s time to finish the job. The Queensland way : Just Vote Once – in a lifetime.
This might be slightly off-topic, but The Borg of Spring popped into the back fo an AFR article (on page 17 — not online, apparently) regarding the government’s call for public input on what name to give the Brisbane CBD (which, apparently, doesn’t have an “official” name). Lawrie said that the idea’s a waste of public money.
Of course, if the city has no name, then it really ought to be called “Nemo” and thus be advertised by Homer, Jules Verne and Walt Disney…