Of course, if the city has no name, then it really ought to be called “Nemo” and thus be advertised by Homer, Jules Verne and Walt Disney…

“a loss in Qld will be useful to longer term restructuring.”

And isn’t that the sort of can’t-do, even in most propitious of election settings, attitude that we’ve come to expect and loathe in Queensland’s tories? Focus on the prize instead of internal bickering? Show they’ve got a sense of gravitas and responsibility? Get trusted with the treasury benches? Never!!
The last time was an accident, Borbidge didn’t win, there was no tory mandate. (Unless you count 22.7% first preferences fo One nation as indicating one. They captured 42% of the Nat vote, and 30% of the Libs, what’s that say about the tory constituency?) In a way, this is really a seven term government already. I reckon it’ll go at least 10 before the Greens get it together, just in time to be able to point to the eco-destruction and say “We told you so”. Gough was right – Queensland isn’t a state, it’s a condition. Democratic processes may not be all that appropriate here. Hell, we got rid of the pesky upper house aeons ago, it’s time to finish the job. The Queensland way : Just Vote Once – in a lifetime.

1. The LNP loses – Barnaby Joyce will hence be put back into his jack in the box and the LNP will disintegrate paving the way for some in fighting in the media and the re-emergence of the anti-merger forces in a tentatively reformed coalition.

2. The LNP wins – This will put the National Party dominated LNP in a position where they can cry Victory from the roof-tops and go about trumpeting the Federal LNP merger which was flatly rejected by the Liberal Party’s Federal Executive previously and will be defended with a flat rejection once more.

The key to the success of the conservative forces in Queensland in my opinion will be its ability to take the impending defeat with atleast some grace and go about re-branding the Liberal Party / National Party coalition and try to resolve this farcial situation of National Party dominated pre-selections and allow for real Liberal Alternatives to fight for the cause of Liberalism in Qld rather than the current joke-like situation that exists.

The problem with the LNP as it currently exists is the fact that the structure dominated by the National Party is deluding itself into believing that saying We are strong and competitive will actually make people believe it.

There is no substantive evidence that the Borg is anywhere near being a potential leader of substance as compared to the vanquished Mal Brough.

I believe firmly that when the LNP take it up the tail-pipe at the next Qld Election, the key to future success will be ensuring that more members of the former Liberal Party win seats than former Nationals.

This is crucial because when the merger disintegrates (and it will) the Liberal (qld) branch will re-emerge with numbers that are workable rather than the joke situation that currently exists.

Despite the impending loss, the next electoral cycle will be key to ensuring the return of the Liberal Party to power in Qld.

I heard some supporters of Barnaby Joyce saying he might be Prime Minister one day if he moves to the lower house and the LNP Federal Merger succeeds! That statement proves how spectacularily out of touch they really are and is why a loss in Qld will be useful to longer term restructuring.

What’s the State gov currently doing to alienate your trade? Especially actions that have been undertaken relatively recently?

I am union/ALP HQ in my district, all I have heard for most of last year is:
“Springborg doesn’t seem so bad, if we put him in it’ll teach labor a lesson” or “Bligh doesn’t deserve to win the next election”

But this is not news, I have posted these comments before on this site, along with a rundown on the deep dissatisfaction with Anna Bligh among core ALP membership.

For a long time this has driven my belief that (what is now LNP) will win the next Qld election.

However, there is an element of Qld’s former liberal party doing the same stuff in the LNP. That is, acting like dickheads, and generally behaving as if they are deliberatly throwing the election.

Perhaps the Qld liberal party aren’t the dickheads I have spent my life thinking they are;-
Perhaps it is as simple as they are just more comfortable in opposition. (After all, there is little work to be done and no hard questions to answer).

Personal note: After years of being the best option for my industry, the post-Beattie ALP is alienating the pub trade. I don’t know how many votes I can change (if any) if I start subtley seeding LNP votes among my punters, but I would be surprised if careful work by publicans can’t go part of the way toward tipping the balance somewhere.

This is quite distressing, as the National & Liberal parties did almost everything they could to alienate the pub trade, now we have nowhere to go since the idiot children of the ALP (Anna Bligh & Andrew Fraser) got elevated above their competence level.

PinkyOz

But if the LNP tops the poll, and the ALP and Greens vote is split somewhere around 25/15 or 30/12 or something, it’s hard to see them losing as I strongly suspect there’ll be a lot of “just vote one-ing”. I doubt the ALP have it on a serious retain list – because Lee’s own estimation of his chances of winning re-election as a Labor member must have factored into his decision to switch parties.

Antony Green placed Indooroopilly as the 7th Most marginal ALP seat with a revised estimate of 2.7%, its traditionally conservative and it should float back if there is even a modest swing. The X factor is how the LNP embraces it’s inner city cousins, the ALP probably have a question mark against this one in their playbook, It will depend on what announcements Lawrence makes from here to the Election, he hasn’t made that mistake yet, mainly because he hasn’t announced anything really.

So yeah, Likely, but I don’t hold the bludger’s optimism/pessimism depending on how you look at it.

PinkyOz.