Late last year, I observed that the final Newspoll of the year was “probably an outlier” (Labor’s 2PP lead was 59-41). I also observed that the pundits and the more excitable members of the political class would nevertheless take it seriously, and while we’ve been spared the leadership speculation (unless you count the Barnaby Joyce speculation), we’ve also been spared any real reflection on the continued electoral weakness of the Coalition. And that looks set to continue with the first Newspoll of 2009, as The Poll Bludger reports:
The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.
Get ready, I guess, for more of the same old same old from the ever astute punditariat.
Of much more interest for the fortunes of political war, I’d suggest, are the findings from the Essential Research survey. Not the ones about the enduring love people supposedly have for Howard (and The Poll Bludger has some good points to make on this one too), but the findings about people’s confidence in the resilience of their financial position. I think it’s still moot as to whether we’re going to be in recession this year, but it’s worth remembering that not everyone does badly in a financial downturn. The government, at any rate, will be banking on that, and hoping that the optimism displayed in this survey is warranted.
Update: Possum, who also thinks the volatility in Newspoll compared to the relatively static trend in other polls suggests the last one was an outlier, makes a number of interesting observations. Aside from discussing the number of uncommitted and refused respondents, he trains his eye on Malcolm Turnbull’s numbers:
Looking at Truffle’s Net sAtisfaction ratings, since he gained the leadership the gap between his raw net satisfaction and his net satisfaction with undecideds removed has closed while simultanously having his raw net satisfaction ratings drop. This means that as people have made up their mind about Turnbull, more of them have been dissatisfied with his perfomance than were satisfied, on balance. It’s not a dramatic movement, but it’s there and it’s something he probably needs to keep an eye on – it’s certainly not as bad as Nelson’s ratings where the undecideds were actually holding up his raw net satisfaction ratings.
Update: Just caught up with this post from Possum giving a breakdown on the financial and job security numbers.
“Q. And in 12 months time, do you think your level of debt including loans and credit cards will have increased a lot, a little, decreased a lot, a little or
stayed about the same?”
What really irritates me about these questionnaires is that they inevitably come up with at least one question, like the above, which leaves a large number of those answering, with nowhere to go. Essential Research, with all their collected wisdom, must surely realise that many recipients would choose by good fortune or stubborn design to not go into debt.
%4 and 60. Jeez, if I was Kevin Rudd I’d be quaking in me boots.
With the government consistently polling in the mid 50s or better, Rudd may be very tempted to go for an early election if the Senate starts blocking things. Especially as the economic news is going to get worse as 2009 unfolds.
Paul burns @ 2,
Correction. Should be 54. Apologies.
Spiros @ 3.
You might be right. Might be the only way to wake the coalition up to themselves. I still haven’t got a nandle on Xenophon, so I won’t comment on him. Fielding might change his obstructiveness with the threat of an early election, but he’s probaly too stupid.
Sprios @ 3. I don’t think Rudd will be interested in an early election. The GFC is his War on Terror, and as long as it appears that he is responding (decisively) to external (read: global, not domestic) events the bad news that keeps coming can actually work in his favour.
Sam @5. I agree up to a point, but so far the GFC has not really hit us hard. Once unemployment starts rising north of 7%, then the punters might start blaming Rudd, however irrationally.
When the opposition isn’t being heard [holidays?] they sound a lot better.
Malcolm wants to give tax breaks to the rich. Honestly, these guys …
Update: Possum, who also thinks the volatility in Newspoll compared to the relatively static trend in other polls suggests the last one was an outlier, makes a number of interesting observations. Aside from discussing the number of uncommitted and refused respondents, he trains his eye on Malcolm Turnbull’s numbers:
Truffle net, raw net,….. just don’t mention the fishnet stockings, OK? BTW, how IS Alexander the Great going with Cyprus? All sorted? Time for a spot of nightclubbing in a nearby resort?
Dolly and Cyprus: the unspeakable in pursuit of the intractable?
POLL RUMINATIONS ABANDONED AS BROADSHEET SWINGS FACTWARDS
I saw this headline wear OO thinks Malcolm’s ahead or something. Jeez! Talk about wishful thinking!
I’m sure I’m not the only one to spot the obvious, but aren’t polls unreliable during the festive season? Lots of people are only now returning from holiday and/or have sunburn and a throbbing hangover and are thus unreasonable and likely to lean Tory.
Rudd acted pretty swiftly with his Christmas stimulus. In fact, it was one of the more impressive responses to the crisis (Germany is only just beginning to get its act together after refusing to do “crude Keynesianism”….whatever that means). I expect a big stimulus coming up.
Keep a very close eye on marginal Coalition seats from ’07 that were intensely anti-republican at the ’99 referendum.
That isn’t Turnbull country, that’s where all the nasty surprises will come from in 2010 for the lord of the manor(s).