Comments on: Newspoll: Labor 54-46

By: Nickws

Nickws — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 11:35:56 +0000

Keep a very close eye on marginal Coalition seats from ’07 that were intensely anti-republican at the ’99 referendum.
That isn’t Turnbull country, that’s where all the nasty surprises will come from in 2010 for the lord of the manor(s).

By: GB

GB — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 10:58:50 +0000

I’m sure I’m not the only one to spot the obvious, but aren’t polls unreliable during the festive season? Lots of people are only now returning from holiday and/or have sunburn and a throbbing hangover and are thus unreasonable and likely to lean Tory.

Rudd acted pretty swiftly with his Christmas stimulus. In fact, it was one of the more impressive responses to the crisis (Germany is only just beginning to get its act together after refusing to do “crude Keynesianism”….whatever that means). I expect a big stimulus coming up.

By: Paul Burns

Paul Burns — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 05:31:25 +0000

I saw this headline wear OO thinks Malcolm’s ahead or something. Jeez! Talk about wishful thinking!

By: The Dreaming Sub-editor

The Dreaming Sub-editor — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 03:51:01 +0000

POLL RUMINATIONS ABANDONED AS BROADSHEET SWINGS FACTWARDS

By: Ambigulous

Ambigulous — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 03:48:13 +0000

Dolly and Cyprus: the unspeakable in pursuit of the intractable?

By: Ambigulous

Ambigulous — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 03:45:25 +0000

Truffle net, raw net,….. just don’t mention the fishnet stockings, OK? BTW, how IS Alexander the Great going with Cyprus? All sorted? Time for a spot of nightclubbing in a nearby resort?

By: Mark

Mark — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 02:53:44 +0000

Update: Possum, who also thinks the volatility in Newspoll compared to the relatively static trend in other polls suggests the last one was an outlier, makes a number of interesting observations. Aside from discussing the number of uncommitted and refused respondents, he trains his eye on Malcolm Turnbull's numbers:

Looking at Truffle’s Net sAtisfaction ratings, since he gained the leadership the gap between his raw net satisfaction and his net satisfaction with undecideds removed has closed while simultanously having his raw net satisfaction ratings drop. This means that as people have made up their mind about Turnbull, more of them have been dissatisfied with his perfomance than were satisfied, on balance. It’s not a dramatic movement, but it’s there and it’s something he probably needs to keep an eye on - it’s certainly not as bad as Nelson’s ratings where the undecideds were actually holding up his raw net satisfaction ratings.

By: Paul Burns

Paul Burns — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 02:43:58 +0000

Malcolm wants to give tax breaks to the rich. Honestly, these guys …

By: zorronsky

zorronsky — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 02:21:56 +0000

When the opposition isn’t being heard [holidays?] they sound a lot better.

By: Spiros

Spiros — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 00:01:23 +0000

Sam @5. I agree up to a point, but so far the GFC has not really hit us hard. Once unemployment starts rising north of 7%, then the punters might start blaming Rudd, however irrationally.