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	<title>Comments on: Stimulus, round 2 &#8211; where might it go?</title>
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	<description>Life, Culture and Politics from BrisVegas</description>
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		<title>By: carbonsink</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181655</link>
		<dc:creator>carbonsink</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Jan 2009 07:02:47 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;In my own area, one that comes to mind is an increase in postgraduate scholarships and ARC grant funding (obviously, I have a direct interest in such).&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Bloody hell, everyone&#039;s looking for a handout now!  The inconvenient truth for lefty, do-gooder academics is your funding came directly from the resources boom, and that funding has all but evaporated.

As I have pointed out many times here, no one gave a damn about the non-resources export sector as the dollar soared past 98c.  We sure as hell weren&#039;t offered any bailouts of the likes Kev is now giving to construction, car manufacturing etc.

When you allow your economy to become little more than quarry, you have nothing to offer the world when the commodities cycle turns sour.  Combined with staggering levels of private debt and a chronic current account deficit, Australia is headed for banana republic territory.

Have no illusions people, we are headed for a monster budget deficit as the demands for handouts grow ever larger, and government revenue shrinks.  Expect the Future Fund to be well and truly raided by the time this little &quot;downturn&quot; is over.

As to the question of why NSW is a basketcase: Perhaps if we weren&#039;t sending our GST dollars north of the border we might do a little better!  The clowns in Macquarie St don&#039;t help either.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>In my own area, one that comes to mind is an increase in postgraduate scholarships and ARC grant funding (obviously, I have a direct interest in such).</p></blockquote>
<p>Bloody hell, everyone&#8217;s looking for a handout now!  The inconvenient truth for lefty, do-gooder academics is your funding came directly from the resources boom, and that funding has all but evaporated.</p>
<p>As I have pointed out many times here, no one gave a damn about the non-resources export sector as the dollar soared past 98c.  We sure as hell weren&#8217;t offered any bailouts of the likes Kev is now giving to construction, car manufacturing etc.</p>
<p>When you allow your economy to become little more than quarry, you have nothing to offer the world when the commodities cycle turns sour.  Combined with staggering levels of private debt and a chronic current account deficit, Australia is headed for banana republic territory.</p>
<p>Have no illusions people, we are headed for a monster budget deficit as the demands for handouts grow ever larger, and government revenue shrinks.  Expect the Future Fund to be well and truly raided by the time this little &#8220;downturn&#8221; is over.</p>
<p>As to the question of why NSW is a basketcase: Perhaps if we weren&#8217;t sending our GST dollars north of the border we might do a little better!  The clowns in Macquarie St don&#8217;t help either.</p>
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		<title>By: danny</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181654</link>
		<dc:creator>danny</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2009 01:30:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181654</guid>
		<description>RM (47): True, but as the overseas students&#039; parents&#039; &quot;fortune&quot; back home is challenged with the GFC, and opportunities for student work here ( and as I understand, and see, it, overseas students, averaged, depend on working here, bigtime, way beyond the hours they are supposed to per visa regulations, it&#039;s survival) are whittled away with rising domestic unemployment, that &quot;terms of trade&quot; effect will become marginal won&#039;t it?
The guy across the road has &lt;strike&gt;debtised &lt;/strike&gt; capitalised bigtime, turning his newly-purchased  modest (inner) suburban house into a &lt;strike&gt;slum landlord&#039;s &lt;/strike&gt; student accomodation supplier&#039;s dream, with room for at least ten. He&#039;s looking worried, even before the reno is finished. I seen a few of these &quot;investment opportunities&quot; in real estate windows, eg 1.6 mill for a 14 bedspace establishment.  There&#039;s definitely a sizeable non-EduInc overseas student-spending-dependent sector out there (eg the landlords) providing back-end services for this trade-balance crucial industry. It may not be the idea of the economy-saving stimulus package this thread&#039;s about, but is putting all bail-out eggs in the domestic consumption sector, as opposed to focussing on more strategic ones, like the overseas student driven one, all that sensible?
Swinburne&#039;s finances show just how exposed things can get in this crucial sector: Government grants don&#039;t cover the academic salary bill, let alone the sizeable  non-academic ( 67% of the academic) one; overseas student fees  are worth almost (92%) as much as the grants; and it&#039;s already at the top of the list for parity between domestic student fees and charges and from overseas ones (39%). It&#039;s hard to see what&#039;s left to squeeze, except employment, if significant numbers of overseas students stop coming to the party and balancing the books.
My point is, I think: maybe Kev&#039;N&#039;Co should think twice about keeping falling for the cargo cult of generalised stimulous packages, and be a bit more strategic about where they puts our money. They&#039;re familiar with the line of thinking of course, see the misguided car industry, ( and that same workforces skill set and work practices could have been deployed to utility scale renewable energy plant production, sheesh), but I&#039;m not giving very good marks for implementation. If Gerry Harvey&#039;s experience is any guide, the current model of stimulus spennding just isn&#039;t working, why put good money after bad?.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RM (47): True, but as the overseas students&#8217; parents&#8217; &#8220;fortune&#8221; back home is challenged with the GFC, and opportunities for student work here ( and as I understand, and see, it, overseas students, averaged, depend on working here, bigtime, way beyond the hours they are supposed to per visa regulations, it&#8217;s survival) are whittled away with rising domestic unemployment, that &#8220;terms of trade&#8221; effect will become marginal won&#8217;t it?<br />
The guy across the road has <strike>debtised </strike> capitalised bigtime, turning his newly-purchased  modest (inner) suburban house into a <strike>slum landlord&#8217;s </strike> student accomodation supplier&#8217;s dream, with room for at least ten. He&#8217;s looking worried, even before the reno is finished. I seen a few of these &#8220;investment opportunities&#8221; in real estate windows, eg 1.6 mill for a 14 bedspace establishment.  There&#8217;s definitely a sizeable non-EduInc overseas student-spending-dependent sector out there (eg the landlords) providing back-end services for this trade-balance crucial industry. It may not be the idea of the economy-saving stimulus package this thread&#8217;s about, but is putting all bail-out eggs in the domestic consumption sector, as opposed to focussing on more strategic ones, like the overseas student driven one, all that sensible?<br />
Swinburne&#8217;s finances show just how exposed things can get in this crucial sector: Government grants don&#8217;t cover the academic salary bill, let alone the sizeable  non-academic ( 67% of the academic) one; overseas student fees  are worth almost (92%) as much as the grants; and it&#8217;s already at the top of the list for parity between domestic student fees and charges and from overseas ones (39%). It&#8217;s hard to see what&#8217;s left to squeeze, except employment, if significant numbers of overseas students stop coming to the party and balancing the books.<br />
My point is, I think: maybe Kev&#8217;N'Co should think twice about keeping falling for the cargo cult of generalised stimulous packages, and be a bit more strategic about where they puts our money. They&#8217;re familiar with the line of thinking of course, see the misguided car industry, ( and that same workforces skill set and work practices could have been deployed to utility scale renewable energy plant production, sheesh), but I&#8217;m not giving very good marks for implementation. If Gerry Harvey&#8217;s experience is any guide, the current model of stimulus spennding just isn&#8217;t working, why put good money after bad?.</p>
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		<title>By: myriad</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181653</link>
		<dc:creator>myriad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2009 00:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181653</guid>
		<description>now seems like a fab time to redesign our cities&#039; public transport systems to me, and in the process look at urban renewal. We can start with Sydney &amp; Melbourne, no probs there.

As far as I can see, we&#039;re going to hit a serious downturn anyway you skin it, and there&#039;s no amount of immediate stimulus to any sector of the economy that&#039;s going to stop that, because we can&#039;t live on consumer spending alone. So it&#039;s time to buffer the most vulnerable from the deprivations on the way, and invest in long-term renewal of our infrastructure, tackling key climate change points along the way.

And what&#039;s not to like about the vision of all our major cities with Paris or Tokyo - level public transport systems of efficiency, elegance and cleverness?

For bigger projects to help out all the workers getting laid off in the west, any very fast train / rail freight routes still needed could be looked at.

Personally it just makes me want to cry thinking about the $10.4 billion spent on trying to get people to buy more christmas presents, not least because the most disadvantaged as usual got nothing (unemployed and students) or less (carers) than farking &#039;working families&#039;. Thank god most of them didn&#039;t listen and sensibly paid down debt. But think what more stimulus that money could be providing right now, for eg, to the panicking building sector if it had been offered instead as payments to insulate houses, put in energy efficient / solar hot water / water efficient devices. Would have lowered bills, created plenty of temporary relatively unskilled jobs (eg insulation installation) and had long-term benefits to the most disadvantaged.

Or how about create community gardens and farmers markets to help people access cheap and healthy food &amp; support the rural sector. Or, or.... $10.4 billion would have bought an awful lot of real lasting good and longer lasting stimulus than the lump sums, poorly targeted, did.

I can only hope that most of the population at some point experienced the same nauseating cognitave dissonance I did listening to Mr Razor Gang urging people to spend spend spend. Can we get off this joke of a pyramid scheme now please?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>now seems like a fab time to redesign our cities&#8217; public transport systems to me, and in the process look at urban renewal. We can start with Sydney &amp; Melbourne, no probs there.</p>
<p>As far as I can see, we&#8217;re going to hit a serious downturn anyway you skin it, and there&#8217;s no amount of immediate stimulus to any sector of the economy that&#8217;s going to stop that, because we can&#8217;t live on consumer spending alone. So it&#8217;s time to buffer the most vulnerable from the deprivations on the way, and invest in long-term renewal of our infrastructure, tackling key climate change points along the way.</p>
<p>And what&#8217;s not to like about the vision of all our major cities with Paris or Tokyo &#8211; level public transport systems of efficiency, elegance and cleverness?</p>
<p>For bigger projects to help out all the workers getting laid off in the west, any very fast train / rail freight routes still needed could be looked at.</p>
<p>Personally it just makes me want to cry thinking about the $10.4 billion spent on trying to get people to buy more christmas presents, not least because the most disadvantaged as usual got nothing (unemployed and students) or less (carers) than farking &#8216;working families&#8217;. Thank god most of them didn&#8217;t listen and sensibly paid down debt. But think what more stimulus that money could be providing right now, for eg, to the panicking building sector if it had been offered instead as payments to insulate houses, put in energy efficient / solar hot water / water efficient devices. Would have lowered bills, created plenty of temporary relatively unskilled jobs (eg insulation installation) and had long-term benefits to the most disadvantaged.</p>
<p>Or how about create community gardens and farmers markets to help people access cheap and healthy food &amp; support the rural sector. Or, or&#8230;. $10.4 billion would have bought an awful lot of real lasting good and longer lasting stimulus than the lump sums, poorly targeted, did.</p>
<p>I can only hope that most of the population at some point experienced the same nauseating cognitave dissonance I did listening to Mr Razor Gang urging people to spend spend spend. Can we get off this joke of a pyramid scheme now please?</p>
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		<title>By: Robert Merkel</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181652</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert Merkel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 23:04:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181652</guid>
		<description>danny: the big drop in the AUD should help in the overseas student market.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>danny: the big drop in the AUD should help in the overseas student market.</p>
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		<title>By: danny</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181651</link>
		<dc:creator>danny</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 18:45:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181651</guid>
		<description>Will the stimulus packages be delivering anything at all to those unsung hero/ines of the Australian economy, the &lt;strike&gt;permanent visa racket punters &lt;/strike&gt; Overseas Students?
They have taken &#039;education exports&#039; to being our 3rd biggest, (after only iron and coal) and do some very heavy lifting indeed in bankrolling OzEdInc&#039;s domestic operations ( one JuliaCorp spreadsheet I&#039;ve analysed shows an Oz uni where overseas student fees cover academic and non-academic salaries combined, and then some!!)
An Oz frontpage during the week noted the swing being on, with OS students/&#039;parents working out the value proposition is just not there in OzEd anymore. One of the sectors being hit by the de-stimulus package of OS students staying@home  is the apartment industry: lots of parents buy one for junior/ette for while they are here. So it&#039;s not just the Boffin/OzEdIncAdmin set who will feel it when the OS student magic pudding dissapears, but the tradie-trafficking industries too. And retail, and hospitality, and hairdressing etc.
Maybe a bit of some significant sort of support package for these folks would be prudent. Or else the education industry might quickly go from being a massive site of casualised re-deployment from otherwise-unemployment in a pretty dumb economy (that it has been for many) to just plain old highly-qualified unemployment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Will the stimulus packages be delivering anything at all to those unsung hero/ines of the Australian economy, the <strike>permanent visa racket punters </strike> Overseas Students?<br />
They have taken &#8216;education exports&#8217; to being our 3rd biggest, (after only iron and coal) and do some very heavy lifting indeed in bankrolling OzEdInc&#8217;s domestic operations ( one JuliaCorp spreadsheet I&#8217;ve analysed shows an Oz uni where overseas student fees cover academic and non-academic salaries combined, and then some!!)<br />
An Oz frontpage during the week noted the swing being on, with OS students/&#8217;parents working out the value proposition is just not there in OzEd anymore. One of the sectors being hit by the de-stimulus package of OS students staying@home  is the apartment industry: lots of parents buy one for junior/ette for while they are here. So it&#8217;s not just the Boffin/OzEdIncAdmin set who will feel it when the OS student magic pudding dissapears, but the tradie-trafficking industries too. And retail, and hospitality, and hairdressing etc.<br />
Maybe a bit of some significant sort of support package for these folks would be prudent. Or else the education industry might quickly go from being a massive site of casualised re-deployment from otherwise-unemployment in a pretty dumb economy (that it has been for many) to just plain old highly-qualified unemployment.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181650</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 16:13:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181650</guid>
		<description>Yes, I think that&#039;s right about Brown. Perhaps he could only justify the move rightwards by endowing capitalism with all the moral force of the Manse, with himself still cast as the preacher&#039;s son that he was. And I&#039;m inclined to agree about Obama, too, but I&#039;d add that good instincts and decisiveness are also a sine qua non here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, I think that&#8217;s right about Brown. Perhaps he could only justify the move rightwards by endowing capitalism with all the moral force of the Manse, with himself still cast as the preacher&#8217;s son that he was. And I&#8217;m inclined to agree about Obama, too, but I&#8217;d add that good instincts and decisiveness are also a sine qua non here.</p>
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		<title>By: Labor Outsider</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181649</link>
		<dc:creator>Labor Outsider</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 16:01:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181649</guid>
		<description>Gordon Brown I think demonstrates the problems with a little bit of knowledge even more. Afer a few successful years of economic growth, finance ministers (treasurers) start thinking that the success is attributable to them, rather than fortune or structural factors beyond their control. Keating (with Hawke) at least (IMHO) can claim to have championed a number of reforms that placed Australia in a more sustainable position than had been the case before 1983. Brown was ultimatley responsible for putting the UK public finances in a less sustainable position than he started with, wasting a bucket load of money on public spending that wasn&#039;t properly targeted, and was responsible for the light touch financial regulation that contributed so much to the current mess. And he had the hubris to claim he had banished the business cycle!!!

One of the reasons I have more faith in Obama than in many other politicians (and I hope not to be too disappointed) is that he seems to be someone genuinely prepared to listen to a diversity of advice and then reach independent judgements about the right way to proceed. I just can&#039;t see him lurching from one desparate move to another. I think we are very lucky that it is he, rather than McCain taking the reins in the US....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gordon Brown I think demonstrates the problems with a little bit of knowledge even more. Afer a few successful years of economic growth, finance ministers (treasurers) start thinking that the success is attributable to them, rather than fortune or structural factors beyond their control. Keating (with Hawke) at least (IMHO) can claim to have championed a number of reforms that placed Australia in a more sustainable position than had been the case before 1983. Brown was ultimatley responsible for putting the UK public finances in a less sustainable position than he started with, wasting a bucket load of money on public spending that wasn&#8217;t properly targeted, and was responsible for the light touch financial regulation that contributed so much to the current mess. And he had the hubris to claim he had banished the business cycle!!!</p>
<p>One of the reasons I have more faith in Obama than in many other politicians (and I hope not to be too disappointed) is that he seems to be someone genuinely prepared to listen to a diversity of advice and then reach independent judgements about the right way to proceed. I just can&#8217;t see him lurching from one desparate move to another. I think we are very lucky that it is he, rather than McCain taking the reins in the US&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181648</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 13:05:47 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Yep, I think Keating in some ways showed the dangers of an imperfectly assimilated knowledge of economics leaning to dogma - ie J Curves!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yep, I think Keating in some ways showed the dangers of an imperfectly assimilated knowledge of economics leaning to dogma &#8211; ie J Curves!</p>
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		<title>By: wpd</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181647</link>
		<dc:creator>wpd</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 12:52:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181647</guid>
		<description>Labor Outsider

Really good,insightful posts.  As for &quot;KR obviously doesn’t know much about economics&quot; I agree and neither does Swan but for me that&#039;s a strength  Little knowledge being dangerous etc.

Much prefer that Ministers listen to advice from up-to-date professionals rather than rely on &#039;knowledge&#039; that is completely out-of-date.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Labor Outsider</p>
<p>Really good,insightful posts.  As for &#8220;KR obviously doesn’t know much about economics&#8221; I agree and neither does Swan but for me that&#8217;s a strength  Little knowledge being dangerous etc.</p>
<p>Much prefer that Ministers listen to advice from up-to-date professionals rather than rely on &#8216;knowledge&#8217; that is completely out-of-date.</p>
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		<title>By: Marks</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181646</link>
		<dc:creator>Marks</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 12:48:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/21/stimulus-round-2-where-might-it-go/#comment-181646</guid>
		<description>Kinglsey @ 4

Let me give you a little example:

Even if you had a really valuable public infrastructure project to start early last year, unemployment was so low and the economy so hot in WA and QLD that it would have been pointless and wasteful to compete with the private sector for those resources.

However, this year the opposite is true.  It is called resource levelling, and gets taught at undergraduate level in most engineering courses.  If you have a copy of Microsoft Project, you can fiddle with it yourself without the need for an engineering degree.  Not a hard concept for a Government to be able to grasp.

Governments ought to be able to do just a little planning so that their projects are slotted in with private sector activity.

It is the Howard Govt&#039;s apparent inability to work out that you actually need to schedule projects as the resources are available rather than when the electoral cycle says you should throw money at stuff that demonstrated to me its quite average economic management credentials.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kinglsey @ 4</p>
<p>Let me give you a little example:</p>
<p>Even if you had a really valuable public infrastructure project to start early last year, unemployment was so low and the economy so hot in WA and QLD that it would have been pointless and wasteful to compete with the private sector for those resources.</p>
<p>However, this year the opposite is true.  It is called resource levelling, and gets taught at undergraduate level in most engineering courses.  If you have a copy of Microsoft Project, you can fiddle with it yourself without the need for an engineering degree.  Not a hard concept for a Government to be able to grasp.</p>
<p>Governments ought to be able to do just a little planning so that their projects are slotted in with private sector activity.</p>
<p>It is the Howard Govt&#8217;s apparent inability to work out that you actually need to schedule projects as the resources are available rather than when the electoral cycle says you should throw money at stuff that demonstrated to me its quite average economic management credentials.</p>
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