While the temperature down here in Melbourne has been considerably more hospitable – in fact, it’s been quite chilly – some gusty winds have continued to fan the bushfires that haven’t been controlled yet. Healesville, the home of one of Australia’s best native zoos, the Healesville Sanctuary, is now under threat. The fire is also not far from some of Melbourne’s water catchment.
Meanwhile, even as the process of locating and identifying the lost continues, ideas about what can be done to prevent future disasters of this scale continue to accumulate; the Royal Commission will have a lot of material to consider. On the shelter issue, Chris Paver at Crikey has has turned up a government report discussing the history of community fire shelters in Victoria. The concept appears to have some considerable downsides. With regards to the technical aspects of shelters, ABC news interviews an engineering academic. His view is that no above-ground structure is likely to protect people in a firestorm.
Communications is another topic which will receive extensive scrutiny. While ABC local radio did its best, they can only relay the fairly short messages they receive from the fire brigades. There was apparently a trial of a system that uses mobile phones to send quite specific, localized messages, that stalled for various bureaucratic reasons. The Age has an editorial on the topic. Hopefully, the examination of communications issues also extends to the mish-mash of incompatible radio systems amongst the various emergency services.
Barry Brook has a look at the question of how much climate change contributed to the conditions that made these fires possible. The official Bureau take makes clear just how exceptional the heatwave was. Brook quotes a friend at the bureau’s unofficial take: ““Given that this was the hottest day on record on top of the driest start to a year on record on top of the longest driest drought on record on top of the hottest drought on record the implications are clear… “. No wonder the firefighters’ union wants stronger action on climate change!
Finally, John Quiggin’s commenters have raised over $5000 for the bushfire appeal; perhaps not quite as large as the over $20 million raised by Channel 9′s telethon, but pretty damn substantial nonetheless. Well done.
Why doesn’t LP have a bushfire relief donations post? Make it for specific new donations, not for recording donations we’ve already made.
The animals at Healesvile zoo have been moved to Werribee Zoo. Good idea Laura.
There will be a rash of shonky built bunkers by “blokes with an idea and a stubby” then one bushfire in a few years time there will be 20 people and kids suffocated in a bunker. And everyone will blame the government.
Someone will find a way to blame green groups – e.g. the ETS making concrete too expensive…
From the caption on the photo at the ABC site:
Bunkers could be designed underneath homes to withstand intense bushfires. (AFP: Torsten Blackwood)
No Torsten, (is that a name?) Not under the house. Well away from the house and any trees or structures likely to collapse.
Further to FXH’s comment, a catastrophe such as the Victorian fires invariably brings out, in plague proportions, people with solutions in search of a problem. As H. L. Mencken once aptly observed, “For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong.”
Caroline: putting them away from houses isn’t necessarily a great idea either. If you put it away from the house, people could die trying to reach it.
If shelters are to become a standard fire-survival technique, a lot of thought needs to be put in to the rules governing their construction.
I recall the reaction to the Mt Macedon fires of a decade plus ago. Faced with a new Royal Commission it would be instructive to assess what changes in outer Melbourne lifestyle have occurred since. I can see the determination of people to re-build clashing with any political attempts to improve survivability based on whatever an inquiry recommends. The aussi battler – a way of life?
Laura: “Why doesn’t LP have a bushfire relief donations post? Make it for specific new donations…”
Very good idea. Be especially smart if the donations were collected via LP and then targeted to a specific population not necessarily best served by general Aus Red Cross donations, if there is such a pop…
And do not forget, as Laura I think mentioned, that today Coles are donating all profits to bush fire relief. Incidentally, the washed spuds were 99cents for 5 kilograms. I wonder who is being screwed for that?
It was Helen who mentioned that. I am sure Coles will be feral today. I am going to buy all the food and soft drink for my upcoming wedding today, as well as as much cat food and loo paper as I can fit int he trolley. Equally pleased to be depriving Coles of hteir profits as contributing to fire relief.
Can I suggest that if other people like the idea of a targetted LP donations drive, we could go with the Rebuilding Kinders fund:
http://www.ourcommunity.com.au/nillumbikgives/donate/appeal_details.form?appealId=1700
A very good cause, going direct to the relevant org, and I haven’t seen it getting plugs elsewhere.
Following on from Merkel @7:
Bunkers would only really work if each house had one. Then that is an explicit policy of stay and defend. There are issues of sufficient air in each bunker.
If there is a communal bunker or bunkers in the centre of town Treechange Upper with 2,000 people then that probably means 1500 cars driving from 1 to 7 ks to the bunker at the last minute with chaos and panic and crashes and still at the last half hour.
If 2,000 people are going to drive around 5 – 7 ks at the last minute why not drive the extra 20 ks to Grasslands Lower town away from the dense bush firestorm intensity.
Lara was essentially a grasslands fire. It is possible to generalise and say that grasslands fires are easier to survive. A great number (most?)deaths at Lara occurred on a high quality 4 lane seperated state highway.
Compulsary mass evacuations create their own dangers and in any event those who really want to stay will stay.
Early mass evacuations will result in many seemingly false positive where thousands evacuate for a day and fires pass the town.
Laura and j_p_z – re fundraising threads, I posted a link on Tuesday to John Quiggin’s appeal:
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/12/fire-disaster-appeal/
His thread is here:
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/12/fire-disaster-appeal/
I’d suggest that it’s probably neater if we join forces and any LP folk make pledges over at Quiggin’s – which was the intention behind my original post. Perhaps it got lost in the flood of posts. Quiggin has already raised $7300 and I think if those LPers who wish to join in, it becomes a joint blogospheric effort.
“It was Helen who mentioned that.”
Whoops! fail.
Have a good wedding, Laura
I think that bunkers for each house is the way the thinking is going, FXH@12
A lot of retro-fitting will be needed and you can bet there are folks making business plans already. Clearly, though, the need will be there for some kind of communal bunkers in towns for shop employees, tourists, shoppers etc who are caught up in things by accident as a dangerous situation seems capable of springing up very quickly.
Maybe concrete underground carparks could double up shelters.
Following up my comment @ 13, I’ve put the substance of it in a post to give it more prominence.
joe2: Kinglake and Marysville aren’t the kind of places where underground car parks have traditionally been constructed. But Marysville could probably use extra car parking spaces on busy weekends.
FXH: Bunker air supply wouldn’t really be an issue for the relatively short duration for which it would need to be sealed, and the use of CO2 scrubbers and oxygen candles could easily extend that time well beyond any conceivable rescue period.
One man arrested
http://www.theage.com.au/national/churchill-arson-suspect-arrested-20090213-86o3.html
If this bloke faces trial, could it be conducted in Auckland or Toronto? I can’t see him getting a fair trial in his home country.
To be fair, Ambig, some of the terrorism prosecutions that have gone to trial in Australia have ended in jury acquittals.
Using the media works only when information is provided WAY in advance of a warning. Up here in the tropics, we rely on local media for cyclone updates – but it only works in the days/hours ahead of a threat. Once it’s “here and now” most of the information coming out of ANY source is usually hours late. Some of this lies with the editorial processes of the media outlet – so even though BoM has released new info, if it doesn’t fit the news cycle (particularly over week-ends when services are transfered to southern production sources), then it can often be too late in arriving.
Similarly, BoM can be equally laggard with their updates. Most notable was the last cyclone that crossed the coast. BoM had it crossing after 9am the following day – but for anyone watching Radar it was clear it actually crossed the coast around 10pm – yet the update provided at 1am still claimed an 9am crossing.
So, if information is going to be sent out, it needs to be prompt, accurate and credible. The problem comes when information is slowed within the organisations it passes through – by the time it makes it out, it’s usually too late.
Robert: yes, of course they have. Around me I see a community much more anxious about fires and angry about arsonists, than ever we were worried by terrorism. I could be mistaken, but.
“Around me I see a community much more anxious about fires and angry about arsonists, than ever we were worried by terrorism. I could be
Try casting your mind back to just after the Bali bombing as I remember a lot of anger and fear in the immediate aftermath. Very similar to the reaction to the bushfires – including much of the reactionary ‘we must do this, we must do that’ to protect ourselves.
Exactly. Any trial in Australia would be a kangaroo court.
That’s just a sheep shot. And not even amoose-ing.
“Firebug” is speciesist. Name one insect that has ever started a fire.
Mammals start fires and then blame innocent bugs.
Shame, mammals, shame.
I saw a bull-ant and a praying mantis fighting over some matches once. Then a sheep stepped on them and a moose licked up the mess.
Try not to be too overwhelmed by mammalian guilt, Katz. Did you ever see a mossie worry?
I think I saw an incendiarist huntsman spider rubbing two stick insects together once. No, hang on, it was a koala dribbling flammable eucalypt juice onto a very hot stone, the cad!
Similar problems were faced by Britain in the 1930s and 1940s (and other societies, of course, including Australia to a limited extent) in preparing for aerial bombardment. Fire refuges or bunkers are reminiscent of the gas refuge rooms or home air-raid shelters advocated back then. Communal shelters were built for people caught away from home during air raids. Strengthening firefighting capability and improving communication to the public were also on the agenda. I clumsily tried to draw some parallels here:
http://airminded.org/2009/02/10/the-fire-2/
But the British never had to deal with a true firestorm, not even at Coventry. It may be worth looking at Hamburg, Dresden, Tokyo and Hiroshima for clues as to what to do, and what not to do, in firestorms. Of course there are important differences: for one thing we are talking about rural and semi-rural areas here, not densely populated urban environments (so fewer people but bigger scales). But firestorms have happened before and so history may be a useful guide.
Do fireflies count?
I suppose it depends where they went to school.
It’s the parents I blame.
The ABC reports that the Gippsland fire which caused 21 deaths was allegedly started in a plantation. Yesterday I linked to a report that the Wandong/Kilmore fire started in a largely treeless paddock and commented that it probably gained strength from being blown through a plantation. If it comes out that the Marysville arson was likewise committed on non-public or non-conservation status land, Tuckey, Devine, Packham, McIntyre and the like are going to be looking very, very silly as well as indecently opportunistic.
And who called them fireflies?? Mammals.
Next you’ll be blaming flame trees for practising self-immolation.
The fact that it burned through paddocks and towns and recently burnt-off bush didn’t stop them Paul, so don’t get your hopes up on any sort of a retraction.
Some time later . . . geebus Robert, I’m not talking half a mile away just not ‘under’ the house. But I’m sure we’d all be surprised at just how fast and how far we could move if were running for our lives towards a safer spot.
Paul N, it was common knowledge from Saturday afternoon onwards that the “Churchill” fire began in a pine plantation in Glendonald Road, south-east of the township. We heard it reported on Saturday 7th. Arson was suspected, and now a suspect has been arrested. Glendonald road runs east-west.
Because of the very strong, hot, north-westerly winds, the fire raced across the plantation in a south east direction away from Churchill and up into the Jeeralang hills [part of the Strzelecki Ranges] ultimately spotting to Woodside.
Sorry, Caroline, not trying to give you a hard time.
But as an engineer (software, not civil, but the idea of design tradeoffs is one we’re very familiar with), you have to weigh the alternatives. My guess is that it’s a heck of a lot less risky to build a crush-proof shelter (a relatively straightforward structural engineering problem, and something you can test in advance) right where it’s needed – than build a lighter-weight shelter in a location where crushing isn’t an issue, and then run the risk of people dying getting from their house to the shelter.
Now, it might turn out that building a crush-proof shelter is much harder than I think. But these are the kind of trade-offs that need to be worked through carefully and systematically, and gut reactions, including my own, may turn out to be completely wrong.
GoTroppo @22 – BoM’s biggest problems are a combination of under-resourcing in addition to the lack of dissemination as you put it (spot-on!).
When duty forecasters are doing 12-hour shifts (covering many fire-prone “remote” locations) with limited information (balloon flights canceled to save money) then it’s no surprise the base information is incorrect sometimes.
That said they did nail it this time (but it didn’t have anything to do with Britney or Paris so wasn’t “important” to the MSM) .
Brett @29 – This did seem to be a firestorm but with a major difference to the WW2 variety, the firefront in the cities was started in multiple locations in a built-up area which provided fuel (fragmented piles of blown-up buildings) for high-intensity multi-hour burns which removed most of the air in the bunkers and/or introduced high CO2 (see Robert’s links). The recent fires moved very swiftly (maybe 80-100 km/hr) without the long-burn period around whatever shelter was taken.
In summary (as others have pointed out) two possible solutions:
1) Better communications of firefront and wind activity (UAV’s with FLIR are pricey but will still be cheaper than manned aircraft and might even have an edge in getting closer) to the relevant people. Large scale broadcast of information without the need for mains power and/or phone presence.
2) Some form of backup shelter (be it cluster or individual). At this stage basic earthen-bunkers look good but as I said before this requires properly engineered testing. Shelter in houses may be OK for low-medium intensity fires but a fall-back does seem a good idea.
The best kind of fire update..I FINALLY heard from my friend who’s property is near Kinglake West. It’s such a relief. To anyone who is still waiting to hear from loved ones, I hope you get equally good news. And thanks to the Red Cross people, the system seems quite iffy and fallible, but they display great compassion under really tough circumstances.
Also, the woman who wrote the LA Times article about the Vic fires that was referenced earlier in the week was interviewed on radio the other day and she mentioned an alarm system that is automated and triggered via a link to meteorological data [presumably strong winds] and is used by people in the US to warn of tornadoes..they don’t get much warning, sometimes only minutes, which requires people to be awakened in the middle of the night so they can head to a shelter.
I remember seeing a device on new inventors for surfers [!!] it was an alarm connected to a laptop that accessed a website where you could program in your favourite surf beach, and if the surf was up, it triggered an alarm that was wired to your pillow!
That’s wonderful news.
Katz@27 asked to name an insect that has started a fire.
Hmmm. Bombardier beetles mix hydrogen peroxide and hydroquinone (strong exothermic reaction) and it can reach almost boiling point (100 degrees C) in their bums as their weapon explodes.
Many flammable liquids have flashpoints well below that.
So… maybe a bombardier beetle with it’s bum above spilt petrol on a hot day with a good oxygen supply could do it. Dunno if we have bombardier beetles here, but I know they’ve got them in Africa.
…and I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t call them “fire ants” just because they sting.
Barrie Cassidy on ABC TV …. Not convinced he didn’t have a blame-game bias.
Homer Paxton opined: “Exactly. Any trial in Australia would be a kangaroo court.”
Ahem, Mr Paxton. Please be advised that Courts specifically dealing with kangaroos were abolished by Governor La Trobe, and these creatures are nowadays dealt with under the Marsupial Justice system. Only the echidnas have separate judicial processes. I’m confident that we mammals have our codes of Victors’ Justice rather neatly organised. Modesty is un-mammalian.
Robert #36 and steveh #37,
It’s possible to build a prediction system using current technology and models to assess fire weather risk in real time – hasn’t been done yet, but can be done – resources (however, the current weather models can do fire weather pretty well – I’m thinking of something more applied that does soil moistuer and fuel etc). What isn’t known are the thresholds, conditions to assess how likely firestorm is given the antecedent conditions.
At the moments, weather models are looped every few hours – there are higher resolution storm models in development that can be much quicker (maybe they’re operating – not totally up to date here) – there is no reason why such a fire weather model couldn’t be developed.
Even with our current low precision and knowledge it’s worth building a warning system fast, then refining it.
The existing risk management strategies will still be ok for most classes of fire – it’s severe crown fires and fire storms that require new thinking.
A warming system and higher grade refuges/bunkers for areas are worth contemplating. The warning system, if adequate, should greatly reduce the risk of getting caught out in the open.
Also worth considering – a multi-sensor stationary satellite over SE Aust, to carry out ongoing monitoring and remote sensing patched into modelling systems. At present, there is a few hours delay.
All this sounds expensive, until one considers the likely frequency of these events.
Roger: like the idea of a fire weather forecasting model. You know a lot more about the computational requirements of these models than I do – is this the kind of thing you can run on a Linux cluster efficiently, or do you still need a traditional supercomputer with really fast interconnects?
Can also see the use of a satellite, but we’re talking at least a billion for that, probably more.
Robert,
both – the current models are run on the High Performance Computer facility, but there are also local models that can now be run on PCs. The EPA use a pollution model developed by the CSIRO that is now being adapted for a whole heap of other purposes. The opportunities for linked facilities are good, but all the main agencies have access to these high performance systems in any case.
And it’s not trying to predict where a fire is going to go – its just going to assess the risk using continually updated data. However, that skill can be developed over the longer term. These things are always going to have a degree of uncertainty, sometimes very high.
Re early warning – if 45C is forecast with extreme risk of fire, and a sea-breeze or cool change comes in early as has happened in the past, meaning that it was a “false alarm” – people are going to have to take that in good grace. Better inconvenienced than badly injured or worse.
And my typos – in all these years I’ve never learned to type properly – in the previous post I had warming systems in stead of warning. We already have an early warming system, that’s the problem.
“…and I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t call them “fire ants” just because they sting.”
Actually they should cell ‘em “Scratch Your Flesh Red Raw with the Itching Ants”.
Their sting is ‘meh’, but the blisters/welts the next day will send you troppo.
The website I administer has attracted a considerable number of visitors and articles concerning the Victorian bush fires. They concern the conservation and land-use planning implications of the bush fires. They pose questions about what are the best long-term solution to the problem and challenge many mainstream views about the bush fires. The articles can be found at candobetter.org/VictorianFires2009.
So much for the risible attempt to blame the “Greenies”: http://www.theage.com.au/national/huge-fire-class-action-launched-20090214-87pg.html
Lefty E – it will be interesting to see just what constitutes negligence when it comes to fallen power lines which cause fires. Under bad weather conditions I don’t see how it can be completely avoided. And there is strong pressure not to clear too much around power line paths because it does have a significant impact on the environment. A few years ago a contractor in NSW committed suicide after coming under a lot of public criticism for clearing too wide an area around power lines going through bush areas.
Issues about lack of maintenance of power lines since Kennett privatised the electricity system may come in here too, Chris.
Someone sounding like jaaapers j_p_z wrote “Don’t know (my calendar is screwy) if it is/was/shall be the Feast-day of Saint Valentine over there at present (and why no post?),” on an adjacent thread.
Sorry, j_p_z, St Valentines Day 14th Feb is one week after a major catastrophe here. My Valentine and I had a special dinner booked, but she’s on special fire recovery duties, working 12-hour days so the dinner is postponed. No big deal. Also, the restaurant is in a rural district where about 20 homes were destroyed; we’ll make diescreet enquiries before re-booking.
In any case, many Antipodean sweet nothings were whispered on 14th Feb, rest assured.
Aussies will eventually fully recover to be your imagined party animals.
Meanwhile, some Canberrans are making an early start by behaving like Party Jackals, over the disaster. And Germaine Greer, well she’s the Expatriate Expert who just keeps on giving. Pontifex Spinnifex: a desert storm of haranguement.
joe2 @ 51 – agreed. The owners of the power lines need to be doing the required amount of maintenance (I guess there are standards) but if the lines are going to fail its most likely going to happen during high wind or temperature conditions. And inevitably even with a good maintenance program there are going to be failures.
I understand Kennett set a public liability limit as part of the privatization deal. So the state picks up the tab after the first 100m; or similar. Forget the precise details.
Just back from a drive through the Otways. No fires there at the moment but many houses and hamlets that are exposed.
The “age” newspaper reports that the King-lake fire was started by a power line clash http://www.theage.com.au/national/power-supplier-will-cooperate-with-fires-investigation-20090215-87ys.html
The “Age” reports “Angry Kinglake residents are launching a class action in the Victorian Supreme Court against SP Ausnet and the state government, arguing a two-kilometre stretch of downed power lines sparked and set fire to a nearby pine forest.”
When Kennet privatised the power systems in Victoria he limited the liability of the new owners. Thus they have no real interest in properly maintaining the assets.
If we are looking for arsonists we could start with the power lines and those responsible.
Huggy
Huggy,
did you mean “looking for origins or causes of the fires”? Owning faulty equipment does not amount to arson. Arson is deliberately lighting fires.
There’s a distinction made between murder and manslaughter, as I’m sure you’re aware.
Well, it seems we’re destined for more fires, endless fires, as global warming dries out tropical areas. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/15/2491942.htm
But when the last redoubt goes up in flames, and we are in perpetual crisis mode every summer, at least we can tell ourselves didn’t HARM TEH ECONOMY or RISK TEH JOBS.
Curse our leaders, opinion makers, and the idiocy of prevailing common sense.
Just a few thoughts: its time to list coal-fired power stations as the climate equivalent of WMDs, and look at international regime of decommissioning them. Thats the only measure of progress we need – how many can be shut down in the shortest possible period. We should no more mourn the demise of this out of date, intensive pollution technology than we do steam trains, thunderboxes, or heavy oil electricity plants. These measures should be backed up with trade sanctions on countries that refuse to play ball.
You can add desalination plants to that list of WMD, LE. Especially those in places like Victoria where growth is still official bipartisan policy and water conservation and recycling aren’t even on the agenda yet.
Lefty E
Good point about burning coal, but the approach has to be broader, si? By all means put reduction of coal burning at the top of the “to do” list, but look at CO2 emission reductions, and C removal (forests, sea, soil) too.
Pedantic Pete
There is a thing called culpable negligence. Unmaintained or poorly designed power lines can momentarily clash together in a high gusty wind and send out a shower of sparks.
Interstingly; I am not even sure that disconnection of the lines would stop the generation of sparks; unless the lines were grounded and shorted together. Theoretically the lines could acquire a triboelectric charge or be charged by other avenues.
Precautions against clashing also include maintaining properly cleared rights of way.
Huggy
Unable to find a link to the Canberra Times letters page, but the comment today from the highly esteemed ecologist Hugh Tyndale-Biscoe is worth repeating:
“…air temperatures, for the first time, exceeded the flashpoint of the main oil in eucaplypt leaves, cineole, which is 47.8 degrees. Before February 7, the highest air temperature recorded in Victoria was 47.2 degrees on January 10, 1939. On February 7, 48.8 degrees was recorded at Hopetoun and 47.4 at Geelong, and throughout most of Victoria the temperatures were near the falshpoint of eucalypt oil. Hence the highly explosive state…”
Some of this has been discussed here already, but putting precise figures on it does tell an important story that seems to be absent from the reporting of Chris Mitchell’s stormtroopers (not forgetting Ms Devine) who apparently want to lynch all greenies.
These media tarts and backroom bullies are dragging a significant national conversation down into the gutter of their own ignorance and stupidity. Feck ‘em.
Quite right Huggy,
“culpable negligence” is an established misdemeanour. There are STILL ads running on TV in Gippsland asking landholders to assist by reporting tree branches too close to power lines. They’ve been broadcast for many years now.
I recall ‘clashing lines’ were blamed as fire starters for some blazes after Ash Wednesday. Then there’s dust build-up in very dry weather, causing arcs. Or smokey conditions under high tension lines: possibility of arcing to the ground, etc.
Plenty to be aware of, plenty of maintenance to do; stacks of equipment to check.
I can’t find the news report at the moment, but apparently the class action about the power lines causing the failure is not about poor maintenance but about a design decision that uses long than normal gaps between towers (I think the towers might be different too). Presumably this is cheaper, but perhaps riskier. All speculation at the moment – It’ll all come out during the inquest.
Interesting Chris, but one thing that probably will not be admitted, because all governments are happy to have passed the buck, is that when it comes to important matters of critical service distribution things are not necessarily best in the hands of private enterprise and the bottom line of increasing profit, above all other concerns.
joe2 – Well if turns out that this really was the problem I’d be more interested to find out if there are regulatory standards when it comes to distance between towers for power lines and the design of the towers. Whether its public or privately owned there is still going to be the desire to design it as efficiently as possible. This sort of infrastructure is very expensive to build and you have to use some sort of criteria (eg temperature/wind/ground clearance).
What sort failure rate is acceptable? The closer you get to zero the more expensive your electricity gets.
All speculation – at the moment its probably about as appropriate to blame private industry skimping on spending money as it is to blame the greenies
“All speculation – at the moment its probably about as appropriate to blame private industry skimping on spending money as it is to blame the greenies
”
My sneaky plan of blame diversion has been unmasked. Drat!
The length of the catenary in a power transmission system is a design decision that is part of a complex design process that includes maintenance programs and cost. Some owners have been forced to fit fiberglass spreaders to their catenaries after the public has observed spectacular showers of sparks during high winds.
Cost is an input to design, there is often a serious fight between the bean counters and the engineers. For example the flux density of a transformer may be an esoteric mystery to most but the decision can have huge cost and energy loss ramifications when translated into actual installations.
Like-wise the culture of the organisation that owns the asset will determine the intrinsic safety of the asset. The old SECV may have had its faults but penny pinching at the expense of lives was not one of them.
The standards for power transmission lines may well be inadequate for eucalyptus forests that are on the edge of ignition and should be modified in the light of this experience.
The problem is that conservative design and prudent maintenance are not exactly the prime aspect of private enterprise. Unfortunately profits are maximised by skimp.
Huggy
Agreed! Standards like this should be managed by an independent body with national, not state based coverage. It shouldn’t be left in the hands of the owners whether they be government or private. We’ve seen how governments both Labor and Liberal are also willing to let infrastructure run down.
I think we do need to be careful not to concentrate too much on the cause of the fires however. We need to design the management of the system – planning, housing design, evacuation/notification procedures etc on the basis that fires will start during very bad conditions.
Chris, All electrical installations fall under one standard or another. Inspectors for standards compliance are independent and licenced and there are independent testing bodies.
Standards committees are drawn from the Industry, Academia etc – as they should be- but that sometimes stuff gets through or the problems are not recognised. There are international standards bodies and international standards as well.
A designer of these systems either conforms to the standards or can expect a visit to the coroners court at some time in his/her career.
Yes commercial interest sometimes impedes safety.
I agree about the management system/s.
It seems to me that refuges are high on the list as well as some serious “terraforming” by the planting of non Eucalyptus to soften the effect of the fires, also some rules about building. Half buried structures with windows with shutters – stuff like that. 1m of wet or dry earth is an excellent fire stopper.
Huggy
included here – photos of 1939 fires
http://museumvictoria.com.au/forest/fire/people.html
Phil Cheney’s warning, tucked away on an ABC website:
“In absolute terms, the combination of drought, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed that makes up the fire danger index of 100 has been exceeded on Ash Wednesday in 1983. Although I suspect that the wind speed recorded at Melbourne in 1939 – that McArthur used as a measure for the index – was lower than the wind speed that would have occurred in the mountainous regional areas of Victoria.
Nevertheless, the weather conditions of January 1939 still remain as a benchmark for the worst possible weather conditions. There were three days of extreme fire danger that occurred within a week. We have not seen such a prolonged period of extreme weather in 100 years of weather observation. We do not know the frequency at which these conditions will recur. What I do believe is that these conditions will happen again, and when they do, any bushfires that happen to start will be just as extensive and just as severe as 1939.”
at http://www.abc.net.au/blackfriday/aftermath/pcheney.htm
Add to that Ambi the multiplying effect of fire burning up hill and settlements on the crest…
Get this. The NSW Department of Environment & Climate Change which is currently boasting that it deliberately burnt 400,000 hectares of bush in the last five years as part of its “hazard reduction program” does not collect readily accessible data revealing what proportion of prescribed burning is by aerial bombardment by incendiary devices in national parks as opposed to anything resembling mosaic-like, limited targeted fires lit by ground staff.
Of course, one must surmise that the bulk of the deliberate destructive burns are indeed achieved by aerial means which raises a zillion questions about containment and unintended impacts which are not even addressed by it and other agencies, I’d wager.
The Royal National Park south of Sydney hasn’t burned since 1997. Why? Because it was largely destroyed by the deliberately lit 1994 bushfires which destroyed 90% of it and then the deliberately lit 1997 fires which burnt again 70% of it and because it has since been repeatedly subjected to massive controlled burning courtesy of government environmental agencies whose overwhelming priority is to ensure that it never, ever, threatens southern Sydney again.
Great work, fellas.
Oh, and the kicker. Sedimentary charcoal research by Scott Mooney, Kate Redford and Gary Hancock found that only *one* large fire seems to have occurred in today’s Royal NP boundaries in 1600 years prior to 1930.
This morning when I went out in the yard to let the chooks out I found a singed tawny frogmouth, in shock, face down on the ground next to the chook water trough. The vet rang to say they euthanased it.
Poor frogmouth. He must have come quite a way. I hope this might cheer you up a little.