You might have missed the later post suggesting that the election would almost certainly be called this week:

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/02/20/imminent-queensland-election-now-more-imminent/

I think I’ll close this thread now and redirect any further comments here:

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/02/23/breaking-news-anna-bligh-calls-queensland-election/

Oops!! Only took 5 days and after an emphatic statement that from Bligh that she would go full term. Things must have really gone pear shaped.
What’s this nonsense about requiring a mandate to meet the economic crisis? She has a mandate for a further 6 months and another budget. If she doesn’t know what to do the she ought to just resign and walk away. Any action now os going to be delayd another 4 weeks while pollies swan around the state.

Where is all the openness we have been promised? This whole chain of events should disgust every Queensland voter.

Sure, but it’s the insiders that have the most complex motivations and so do the craziest things. (Which includes making public statements contrary to what they will actually do in the privacy of the ballot box, amongst other things.)

I can’t help feeling that regular voters that have stuck with the Libs for the last 3 obviously despise the ALP at least as much as they despise the Nats, and so are at least as likely to hold their breath and vote for the LNP than for the ALP. Maybe the informal/abstain vote will be up significantly, although for obvious reasons you can’t expect the kinds of figures seen at a LG election to transfer through to a state one.

“Wouldn’t be outside the bounds of possibility that more will follow”

No, certainly not outside the bounds of possibility. I just think it towards one end of the continuum of probability.

In any case I’m pretty sure we agreed up there that the analysis presented was both foolish and wrong

I like the QLD Greens chances of a Senate Seat in 2010 – but cant really see where they’ll win one at state level.

While I can’t help feeling that this is an optimistic view

Depends who we’re defining as “committed Liberals”, Martin. Some prominent Libs – including a former party president – have indicated they’re voting Labor.

Outside those sort of circles, we have to remember that a lot of metropolitan Liberal voters have always despised the Nationals. Many, of course, have already peeled off to Labor – in 2001, 2004 and 2006. Wouldn’t be outside the bounds of possibility that more will follow, or another lot moving to Labor as some return to the LNP.

The other point to make is that the environment is likely to be little discussed in the campaign, and to have a low push factor in terms of issue salience. To the degree it does, no one is going to look much beyond the attack on the Borg for tree-clearing, etc, etc. Actual policies are of very little relevance on issues not ranked highly in the real world of voting behaviour.

Larissa Waters, who was their lead Senate candidate, is running in Mt Cootha. However, Andrew Fraser, aside from being Treasurer, is a good local member. A 21% primary for the Greens may be as good as it gets. The demographics, and shifts in the boundaries, have probably been working against the LNP, but I’d still be very surprised if Labor isn’t well out in front in Mt Cootha and the LNP in second place.

To be honest, I don’t think the Greens have a chance outside Indooro. And there I don’t like their chances, particularly now that Sarah Warner has been preselected for Labor. I think the most realistic goal the Greens would have in this campaign is party-building and profile building for the next Senate contest.

Yeah, I wrote “hardcore Libs” and then remembered that things are still different up there.

“Actual committed Liberals are … most likely to hold their noses and vote Labor, or vote informal.”

While I can’t help feeling that this is an optimistic view, nonetheless the substantive point that these people are going to vote 1 LNP 2 Green [3 ALP], or 1 Green [2 ALP] seems even less likely due to the factors you describe.